Whither Ukraine? : weapons, state building, and international cooperation

234 Pages·2018·16.288 MB·English

by  Scott Allan Jones

WHITHER UKRAINE?
Taylor & Francis
Taylor & Francis Group
http://taylorandfrancis.com
Whither Ukraine?
Weapons, state building,
and international cooperation
SCOTT A. JONES
Center for International Trade and Security,
The University of Georgia
R Routledge
O
U
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LED Taylor & Francis Gruop
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LONDON AND NEW YORK
First published 2002 by Ashgate Publishing
Reissued 2018 by Routledge
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Routledge is an imprint oft he Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
Copyright © Scott A. Jones 2002
Scott A. Jones has asserted his right under the Copyright, Designs and Patents
Act, 1988, to be identified as the Author of this work.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or
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are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.
Publisher's Note
The publisher has gone to great lengths to ensure the quality of this reprint
but points out that some imperfections in the original copies may be apparent.
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A Library of Congress record exists under LC control number: 2002103119
ISBN 13: 978-1-13 8-71722-0 (hbk)
ISBN 13: 978-1-315-19646-6 (ebk)
Contents
Foreword vi
Acknowledgements viii
List of Acronyms x
Map of Ukraine xii
1. Introduction 1
2. Why Do States Develop Systems of Export Control? 18
3. Describing and Measuring the Ukrainian Export Control
System: The Explication of Method 44
4. Tools and Methods for Measuring Nonproliferation
Export Controls: An Application in Ukraine 60
5. Explaining Ukrainian Export Control Development 98
6. Incentives, Coop(t)eration, and Evolving Self-Interest in
the Development of the Ukrainian Export Control System:
The Bushehr Case 166
7. Conclusion: The Evolution of Ukrainian Export Control
System: State Building and International Cooperation 191
Bibliography 203
Index 219
v
Foreword
The stabilization and gradual revival of Ukraine’s economy are closely
related to the solution of problems of foreign trade. In this sense, maximum
utilization of the export potential of Ukraine acquires a particular
importance. The reduction of Ukraine’s Armed Forces and a sharp
decrease in their demand for armaments have objectively necessitated
dedicated efforts to promote Ukrainian arms and military equipment on
foreign markets. The reliance on military and defense-related items is
enlarged owing to the overly militarized nature of the Ukrainian economy.
As such, arms exports have turned into a factor of critical economic
relevance for easing the economic burden of the transition from a centrally
planned economy to one based on free market principles and practices.
As of 2001, Ukraine ranked number ten among the ten leading
exporters of military hardware.1 For the period from 1997 through 2000,
Ukraine ranked eighth in such deliveries, with a total of $1.5 billion.
Ukraine’s continued dependence on arms exports can be an indication that
the economies of Belarus and Ukraine may be stagnating. For example, the
amount of military hardware that Ukraine delivered to foreign customers in
2000 shows that its economy has not evolved properly from Soviet times.
Ukraine inherited the second largest and, some have argued, the
most advanced sector of the former Soviet missile industry. Military
production in the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (SSR) constituted an
estimated one-third of the total Soviet military production and 38 percent
of Ukraine’s total industrial production. Government sources suggest that
1,840 research centers and enterprises and 2.7 million people - 5 percent of
Ukraine’s total population - are engaged in military production, with 700
of these enterprises, employing 1.3 million people, producing exclusively
for the military. Ukraine also possesses significant nuclear, chemical,
biological, and missile/space capabilities.
All of the former Soviet Republics did not, however, equally
inherit the means controlling and monitoring these locations or the
movement of sensitive materials and technologies. Moreover, all of these
former Republics have difficulty controlling their borders. Consequently,
sensitive items may find their way from or through these states to other
regions of the world. Developing effective export control systems for all
the NIS, therefore, has become an important objective in the effort to
vi
Foreword vii
reduce the risk of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Because
Ukraine possesses the industrial facilities for producing components for
weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and related military goods,
developing and implementing effective controls there are crucial to world
security.
This book examines the development of and rationale behind the
Ukrainian export control system. Using a theoretically informed case study
methodology, the study explains how and why Ukraine - a new state
constrained by inexperience, limited political and economic resources, and
relations with Russia - has continued to emphasize the importance of not
only maintaining but augmenting its export control system, especially in
light of waning international support after nuclear divestiture.
Furthermore, this book assesses the utility of four international
relations approaches in explaining nonproliferation export control
development. By examining the driving forces behind the development of
nonproliferation export control policies, practices, and procedures in
Ukraine, we come to better appreciate what is prompting Kyiv to address
the potential leakage of weapons and weapons-related items from its
territory. In particular, we can ascertain the importance of varying factors,
such as security threats, democracy, identity, material inducements, and
domestic politics, for explaining the development of nonproliferation
policies.
Names, institutions, and circumstances have of course changed
since the original writing of this book. However, the theoretical findings
and policy recommendations are still valid even if Ukraine - since it
divested itself of nuclear weapons and began cooperating with the West on
export control development - occupies a less prominent place on the
international security agenda of most Western countries. In essence, this
study endeavors to approximate an answer to a question that lies at the
very heart of the study of international relations: “Why do states
cooperate?”
Note
1 Richard Grimmet, Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations, 1993 to
2000, U.S. Congressional Research Service (Washington, DC: 2001).
Acknowledgements
After such knowledge, what forgiveness?
T. S. Eliot, Geronition
The single heading author line is misleading. This piece, and the obscured
time and effort, represents a group effort in the truest sense of the phrase. I
am indebted to so many people that upon further reflection my endeavor to
thank them all would seem to require a document similar in length, but,
mercifully, dissimilar in content. That being said, I would like to note
particular individuals.
At the outset, I will try to express to my family the deep humility
and gratitude with which I am beset when contemplating how best to thank
them for their assorted support and, God only knows, infinite patience while
I pursued my bookish infatuations. The plain truth of the matter is that
without their encouragement, this effort could not have occurred. Their love
and persistence means more than can or should be expressed through so
poor a medium.
Dr. Gary Bertsch deserves as much credit for the present product as
my family. Gary has been a positive, wholly supportive influence in my life
since as an undergraduate I attended his classes on all things communist.
Gary has been central in my experience as a world-traveling scholar and
published author. We are fortunate in life if we meet a mentor. I count
myself, therefore, amongst the fortunate.
Special thanks are due also to my colleagues at the Center for
International Trade and Security, especially Dr. Mike Beck. Mike patiently
endured many a dark night of the soul while I mused aloud about the
impossibility or pointlessness of completing this book. Mike’s scholarly eye
and abiding friendship was more crucial than his modesty will allow him to
realize. I would also like to thank Dr. Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado for his
strategic sense of humor and critical voice, Dr. Igor Khripunov for his
patient advice, and Dr. Victor Zaborsky for his lay and professional
portrayals of Ukraine and assistance in developing Ukrainian contacts.
My advisors - Drs. Gary Bertsch, John Duffield, Loch Johnson,
Igor Khripunov, Han Park, and Victor Zaborsky - provided this study with
concerned and insightful guidance. Also, I would like to acknowledge the
support and friendship of Dr. Sergey Yatskevitch of the Kyiv Institute for
viii
A cknowledgements IX
Nuclear Research. I met Sergey while working as a Los Alamos employee
in the summer of 1995. Even then we discussed my ideas for a book along
the present lines. His guidance in this endeavor kept the whole process
honest and precise.
Surpassing my ability to articulate is my appreciation for the
unqualified love and support of my little family, Bryan, Tucker, and Terrell.
Hearty thanks also for the guidance and support of my editors at
Ashgate: Amanda, Kirstin, and Sarah.
I must also acknowledge my colleagues at Los Alamos National
Laboratory, Argonne National Laboratory (thanks especially to Dr. Basil
Picologlou), and the US Department of Energy for providing me with
unparalleled access to Ukrainian decision makers and government officials
- especially Dr. Gene Taylor. I would like to recognize also the National
Research Council’s generous financial support for book research and travel.
Special thanks are due to my contacts and friends at the State Service for
Export of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, the Ukrainian Scientific and
Technical Center, and Dr. Sergey Galaka and Dr. Volodymyr Chumak of
Kyiv State University.