When Insurgents Go Terrorist: The Role of Foreign Support in the Adoption of Terrorism

198 Pages·2017·1.61 MB·English

by  Jeffrey F. Fourman

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Jeffrey F. Fourman
Wright State University
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WHEN INSURGENTS GO TERRORIST: THE ROLE OF FOREIGN SUPPORT
IN THE ADOPTION OF TERRORISM

A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment
of the requirements for the degree of
Master of Arts

By

JEFFREY F. FOURMAN
B. A., University of Dayton, 2004

2014
Wright State University
WRIGHT STATE UNIVERSITY
GRADUATE SCHOOL
April 29, 2014

I HEREBY RECOMMEND THAT THE THESIS PREPARED UNDER MY
SUPERVISION BY Jeffrey F. Fourman ENTITLED When Insurgents Go Terrorist: The
Role of Foreign Support in the Adoption of Terrorism BE ACCEPTED IN PARTIAL
FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF Master of Arts.

_____________________________
Vaughn Shannon, Ph.D.
Thesis Director

______________________________
Laura M. Luehrmann, Ph.D.
Director, Master of Arts Program in
International and Comparative
Politics

Committee on Final Examination:

___________________________________
Vaughn Shannon, Ph.D.
Department of Political Science

___________________________________
Pramod Kantha, Ph.D.
Department of Political Science

___________________________________
R. William Ayres, Ph.D.
Department of Political Science

___________________________________
Robert E. W. Fyffe, Ph.D.
Vice President for Research and
Dean of the Graduate School
ABSTRACT

Fourman, Jeffrey F. M.A., International Comparative Politics Program, Wright State
University, 2013. When Insurgents Go Terrorist: The Role of Foreign Support in the
Adoption of Terrorism

What role does foreign support play when an insurgent group adopts terrorism? Utilizing
both quantitative analysis and in-depth case studies, this thesis examines the effects of
foreign support among other commonly cited explanations for an insurgency’s adoption
of terrorism. In addition to observing the effects of foreign support on the adoption of
terrorism, the effects of government regime type, insurgent group goal type, insurgent
group strength, and foreign benefactor type are analyzed. After executing a multiple
logistic regression analysis of 109 intrastate conflicts occurring from 1972 to 2007 and
conducting detailed case studies for the Tamils in Sri Lanka and the Kurds in Iraq, this
thesis concludes that specific types of foreign support from non-state actors not only
make insurgent groups significantly stronger but also make them more likely to adopt
terrorism thus calling into question the weapon of the weak argument.

iii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
I. WHEN INSURGENTS GO TERRORIST
Introduction………..……………………………………………...........................1
Literature Review………..…………………………………………………..........3

II. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY
Conceptualizing Terrorism.........………………………………………………....20
Methodology...…….…………..………………………………………………....41

III. MULTIPLE LOGISTIC REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Introduction…..………………………………………………………………….48
Review of Variables and Inferential Statistics…..…………………………........48
Hypothesis Testing……..………………………………………………………..56
Conclusion of Quantitative Analysis…..………………………………………...71

IV. THE SRI LANKAN TAMILS: GOING TERRORIST IN A TROPICAL
PARADISE
Introduction……...………………………………………………………….........76
The Seeds of Insurgency:
Ethnic Conflict and Self-Determination in Sri Lanka…..................77
Belligerents and Allies in a Paradise Lost……...........……....….………...…......80
From Insurgency to Terrorism………….…………….…………………….........92
Conclusion…………….………………………………..……………………….115

iv
V. THE KURDS IN IRAQ: DIVISION AND SELF-DETERMINATION
Introduction…...……………………………………………………………...…122
The Seeds of Insurgency: An Oil-Soaked Powder Keg...………………………123
Belligerents and Allies in the Struggle for Kurdish Autonomy…...……………128
From Insurgency to Terrorism.….……………………………………………...133
Conclusion.......……….……....…………………………….………………......151

VI. CONCLUSION: THE ROLE OF FOREIGN SUPPORT?
Introduction....…….……………………………………………………………155
Analysis of Results........….………..………….………………………………..156
Areas for Additional Future Research….....……………………………………163
Conclusion and Policy Implications..….………………………….……........…168

VII. BIBLIOGRAPHY…………………………………………….………………...173
VIII. APPENDIX A
Insurgent Groups Participating in Intrastate Conflicts……….…......………….185
IX. APPENDIX B
Cases Missing Valid Input for at Least One Independent Variable……............189
X. APPENDIX C
Cases Missing Valid Input for Used Terrorism Dummy C Variable……….......190

v
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure Page
4.1 – First Terrorist Attacks Committed by Tamil
Insurgent Groups against Military or Civilian Targets………………..…89

4.2 – First Terrorist Attacks Committed by Tamil
Insurgent Groups against Civilian Targets………………………………89

4.3 – Tamil Insurgency Troop Levels………………………………………..…..………97

4.4 – Sri Lankan Troop Levels..………………………………….…………………........98

4.5 – Territorial Claims Made by the Tamil Insurgency..………………………….…...105

5.1 – First Terrorist Attacks Committed by Iraqi Kurd Insurgent Groups …….…........133

5.2 – Number of Terrorist Attacks Committed by Iraqi Kurd
Insurgent Groups Compared to Iraq’s Polity IV Score ……………..…136

5.3 – Territorial Claims Made by the Kurdish Insurgency....……….. .……..…………145

vi
LIST OF TABLES
Table Page
3.1 – Multiple Logistic Regression Analysis Results for the
Adoption of Terrorism by an Insurgent Group……...…..…57

3.2 – Comparison of Model Predictability………………………………………...…..…58

4.1 – Causal Relationships between Independent Variables and
the Adoption of Terrorism by the Tamil Insurgency……...…..…116

5.1 – Causal Relationships between Independent Variables and
the Adoption of Terrorism by the Iraqi Kurds……...…..…152

A.1 – Insurgent Groups Participating in Conflicts that
Start and End During the Cold War ……………………185

A.2 – Insurgent Groups Participating in Conflicts that
Start after the Cold War………..…………...……186

A.3 – Insurgent Groups Participating in Conflicts that
Start During the Cold War and End After the Cold War…………….…188

B.1 – Cases Missing Valid Input for at Least One Independent Variable.………..……189

C.1 – Cases Missing Valid Input for
Used Terrorism Dummy C Variable……………………………190

vii
I
Chapter One
The Role of Foreign Support in the Adoption of Terrorism?
Introduction
Contrary to popular belief, terrorism is not a modern phenomenon, and
unfortunately there is no shortage of cases to study throughout history where insurgent
groups adopted terrorism. Likewise, insurgent groups throughout history have also
received external support of differing levels from different types of actors. However, the
role that foreign support plays in an insurgent group’s adoption of terrorism is largely
understudied within the body of research concerning the causes of terrorism which
focuses on the debate between the strategic logic of terrorism versus the social and
psychological explanations of terrorism. This begs the question, why do some insurgents
adopt terrorism and not others, and what role does foreign support play in that decision
among the other factors more commonly considered?
The role of foreign support and its impact on the dynamics between local
populations and insurgents is understudied. Drawing upon the assumptions of tripartite
warfare laid forth by Richard Betts (2002), asymmetric conflict is as much a battle for the
support of local populations as it is a military endeavor. Moreover, insurgents should be
less likely to seek out or accept foreign support when they can achieve their goals with
the level of local support afforded. Consequently, when insurgent groups receive foreign
support, it is logical to assume they are less accountable to the local population and
1
possibly more likely to accept civilian casualties in pursuit of their goals. Therefore, this
thesis hypothesizes that insurgent groups who enjoy foreign support are more likely to
adopt terrorism compared to insurgent groups that do not receive foreign support.
Although terrorism may have roots in guerrilla warfare, there is a line that
separates the two concepts that often gets blurry when insurgents deliberately attack
civilian targets. This blurry line between terrorism and guerilla warfare is a large
contributor to the contested nature of terrorism as a concept, and the research and
conclusions of this thesis are subject to the limitations of one’s conception of terrorism.
As more fully explained in chapter two, this thesis defines terrorism as violence or the
threat of violence generally directed against civilian targets by a group or individual that
is calculated to create fear and alarm and is intended to coerce a political outcome.
When an insurgent group adopts terrorism, there must be a point when they weigh
the costs and benefits of attacking military versus civilian targets and decide that it is in
their best interest to attack the latter. This decision is the pivotal point that transforms
freedom fighters into terrorists. The purpose of this study is not to make an attempt at
explaining all instances of terrorism, and it is not meant to develop an all-encompassing
theory to explain why terrorism occurs. Rather, this study focuses on instances of
terrorism that insurgent groups commit when involved in asymmetric conflicts against
their domestic governments. Within the context of such asymmetric conflict, the purpose
of this study is to gain a better understanding of the role that foreign support plays when
insurgent groups decide to adopt terrorism.
This introductory chapter proceeds with a literature review of the available
scholarship concerning the causes of terrorism and the provision of foreign support for
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