What Do Computers Do to Productivity - Brookings Institution

40 Pages·1999·0.11 MB·English

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THE SOLOW PRODUCTIVITY PARADOX:
WHAT DO COMPUTERS DO TO PRODUCTIVITY?
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gniwoll oe fhfhtoc agenitaula vsenoitc eestarap essnia t.n xotocIdar ae phr to”fsnoitanalpxe“
.snoitisop
(1) You don’t see computers “everywhere,” in a meaningful economic sense. sd rneatu pmoC
.kco tlsatip aec h ftdo nPa D fGeora hlsla myslevital eear rtanempiu qgenisseco rnpoitamrofni
(2) You only think you see computers everywherer osfexed neici rcpinod ethnemnre v. oG
tu prteutou pldmaeoercru seareomf e ,rdnenohai ttg insosiitodhprt o”c, c t oalssolartafe“ftupmoc
htwor gsi osl aoo”t.“tsaf
(3) You may not see computers everywhere, but in the industrial sectors where you most see
them, output is poorly measuredf osres uyvae her ahcih w,ecnarusn idn aecnani fer aselpma x .E
.deifice pyslro ostpiupt uftoopecn oe chnte veere hd wnyagolonhc entoitamrofni
(4) Whether or not you see computers everywhere, some of what they do is not counted in
1rotc eeScivr eneSocnerefn oe C htdtaetnese rypllanigi rsokram endroes asrbiep a spi hT
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yltae r” mg?Ianw ogDniwo l rS pogUnidee peSgna hlCacigolonhc esT Id“elt intoiss enasi
.yrots ichimono cfseotni otpnavel eerm onssonoitasrevn or confidl oaGidua lodCtetbedni
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.UDE.KOORB@TTELPIRTJ
economic statistics,ecafretni-re sruett e,becneinevn o,cb oe jhnntooitpmusn oe crsaelp m.a xE
dna os.htrof
(5) You don’t see computers in the productivity statistics yet, but wait a bit and you wills isi h .T
w e fansonoitacilp myitivitcudo rep htta hate dei h,tyticirtce l fenooisuff ied hhtt iywgola neaht
.ga lgno lahti welbisi vyln oer aygolonhcet
(6) You see computers everywhere but in the productivity statistics because computers are not as
productive as you thinkngis emdets yrsetupm odceli ashfac u,ssetodce nyan ae mreare h,t e.r eH
ng iesreadw trdfenotasu p tmeaochcnt eriectsu p mmsoonrcofitr e oseess rrla,teaasuhtbtcejorp
sah nekat a gnorw.nrut
(7) There is no paradox: Some economists are counting innovations and new products on an
arithmetic scale when they should count on a logarithmic scale.
Background
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ta eht etar fo 9.2 ;tnecrep retfa ,3791 eseht ytivitcudorp htworg setar erew 2.0 tnecrep dna1.1
percent. e h ftsoeimono cdeezilairts2ud n ei f htots o nmdievres bnoe eebv ashnwodwo lrsali m iS
OECD.
e h nteigna hlcacinhc e ftnooisuff ird omfsinahc eem h sttixetn oec h fttor arpehtonA
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w oen r eaewgna hlcacinhc eyt n,awe isvi h. ntyOrenihc awm e nntinemtsev nhiguor hetcalpkrow
esuace b,ygolonhce tnoitamrofn in itnemtsevn is'ymonoc eeh tn ideidobm ee btsu mgnicneirepxe
gnisseco rnpoitamrof n nitinemtse v. ngIniwo r sgtia httnemtsev nyirenihc a fmdon iek h sttiaht
e rhsocim i,h7w 9tn9ni1empi ueqleba rruedcud otfrnopec rt4eu3p o rbdoaeftnuo ctcnaempiuqe
2 .S.U tnemtrapeD fo robaL ,a8991( b8991.)
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latip a ncaot aed h otttnemtsuj dyatila ugaqnik aym bs(enihc awm e fnsosenevitcudo rdpecnahne
,to nlli wyrenihca mdevorpm ineh t)stupni by itself htgiu o,hyttivitcud orroptcaf-it leusm i,ar
. ytivitcudo rrpob aylranid reosaerc ndiluohs
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remusn ofscotneme ls,eastup nsisenis usba—secivr efhsotwo re ghd tn,astcudo rdpezimotsuc
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s rsnnoeaotc h iuootttb rt icidpeurehdts tonuorot pc.eb fI ti s ie utra thnetoh itetsau mfroofni
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. ymono cnered o namyigolonhc entoitamrofni
danuo rsaevlov egrnitseret nsxiiodar ayptivitcudo rwpol oe Shhtci hntwixetn oe ch,tsuhT
ytivitcudo r3p791-ts oe phset ir.e shnToitse ud qnsaeus sciimono cdeevloser nfruoebmun
tne cdeers o .p enpesr ouhieistht Tu slttoapsme tldtleaats i st sroaaeea shhlrf,tz nzawuopdwols
nnie v;etnec etra hlt lta o snsii h,tyllautc ay(mono cseecivr e oasytmono csedo omago rtffihs
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,4 4,9s1et adteSt i etnfhcUotart slbaAcitsita tsSu(s n0e 4 Ce”9nh,1itec rroof bdaelcneirepxe“
table no. 128, pp. 116-118).
3
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”.seitivit craeh togotnineppah
ytivitcudo rrpetupm oec h ntsonoitis onpev ewseiv esrnoitc edserebm ugnniwoll oefhT
paradox.
I. You don’t see computers “everywhere,” in a meaningful economic sense.
ftoup ne ihnd tinkaco tlsatip ae chnstiretupm ofecora he shsstirett atma h,wwe isvi hntI
egr aealk atmonn aecra hlsla mysr ehavt itwup n. nilAla mes rsaera hess e. hsTecivr elsatipac
, h dtcnnwi oaom oir oost gdn tut loebctucw ieooeorpnh ttxsenee ostc crah aotnpjwomaoimrg
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mr eet h;tylbaegnahcretni—tnempiu qlearehpir espu lspretupmoc—”tnempiu qreetupmoc“
stanempiu qreetupm oscniatn otca hytroget arceda o s”raitbnempiu qgenisseco rnpoitamrofni“
e eest —o)esn.nt3o nfeo nsotpimoc
4
d nnaosnegr od Jn,a)499 1l(ehc id Snraeni le Orsanoitarolp xeevisneherpm otcs oemhT
h o.r)i5t9S91( htoB stes f eostraolhu :tcegnulh noaathiictttwnaouuroqgceca
(1) d Y =s d K +s d K +s d L +d p
t c t c cn t cn L t t
erdehw Y = dY/dt, the rate of growth of output, d K , d K d dna L are rates of growth of the
t t c t cn t
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c, nc,
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i t
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;)98 9,1089 1n(osnegr oydJbepolev ekdrowema rgfnitnuoc claatip ae chgtni s,ulatip atcnempiuqe
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ontoitubirtn olcla myslevital eeard atmnempiu qreetup m. oeClbitapm oec rsarep ahpt ofbo
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, )n1o(ita ukfqroeowem agrnfitnuo chc ta.w yo emrnhogItn o ectheutohguo rdhetsuf fyildediw
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stinempiu qsei h fteora hes hnte hhwtwo r ogstnoitubirtn olcla myslevital eyrl neokam—deedni
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fnooitanibm oec h rt,otnempiu qgenisseco rnpoitamrof n,itnempiu qreetupmoc—snoitinifed
e hste ood dsn, a)e2lb aete sl(la mnsiam esrera hesht—rob ad ln,aerawtf o,serawdr aghnitupmoc
.ygolonhc entoitamrof nfniooitubirtn ohctworg
r osftlus eertalum i)s499 1l(ehc idS nraeni l,Ostlus errie h ftsosenelbanosa eer hktce hocT
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remusn od cndan asledulc nkico tlsatip asc’hori td Snnaosnegr oeJsuac eybltr a,p)tnecr e5p.0(
tnemtsev nriie hnta hrtella mhsc ussmiretupm ofecora hksco tlsatip ae chtta h et.t soeNlbarud
.stnemtsev ndievil-tro hysr ee vrsaretupm o;cerahs
5
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e hetsi asrnoitalum iesvitanret leas e. hlTatip arceh t notinemtsev nnia hstnrut errehgih
de2 nl. nub0m1io ao rh otr,3attt tf l).wnur(ol40oebota.rm0gp igunqiet un pofmiootcubirtnoc
r olfla mos oytlpm i sstinempiu qgenitupm o fceora h es: hmTelbo repm aes httnorfn omce hfto
cimon onocoteitubirt neo gctn rliaau l stoentremtse vrneitup mnoortcu teelrbanos ayenra
growth.
nootitubirt nso’cretup meeohtctaluc lsaecsicr egxneitnuo chctaworG growth, not its
rotcafi t nlooutimtubirtnoc productivity syih W:“noitse ue qhstrews nganitnuoc chat w.o rG
,sw o nh1osita u” q?serAehg it hoyntivitcudo rsypih W:“sy axsodar a”e p?hrTehg it hohntworg
nfooitubirt n eomhc otertfara phsetisw ocrigmon onocoteitubirt nso’cytivitcud orroptcafitlum
gniylp psxaaodar ayptivitcudo re phstterpret ne. i nsforIetupm oftcoup ne ihgtnidulc n,itup nyina
. tntiohg ihlc uymr edve ht soosndesicre xgenitnuoc chatwo r,gytivitcudo rrpotcafitl uomt 6
efsonop s eeyhrltp mhsitisw orregtup m,onc e,hktrowem agrnfitnuo chctaw o ernhgIt
ecnerefn on,cinosnegr o,Jd e se.rd entIupm ofecoci re phnltil atfae re ghodttnam etdupni
enilc eedci rspuomr o .ne )eh8T99 1h(ori ts Sas,hatni otpca xsei hdtezisahp ms ea,hsnoitatneserp
,krowema rsfisyla nnaoitcudo rdpradn a n,tainsoitutitsb us stod ites larhew ogpnitupm onci
tcap mciimono cee h,twe isvi h. nttOnemtsev n fisodn irkeh tgonidulc n,istup nrieh tlo ltasniaga
. yltrl aoayttsivitc u rtds eooiatnrupp mefohoct
d ntau(p trueotup meoscua cseebs iw renaiovitutits btuu sps nitihu tonboaitavre seenrO
.sexed neici rrpetupm occinod eghni s,unoitalf e yddbetamit s se)itup nliatip arcetupm oecrofereht
ec irreptup m eothc atdhetu ger va.ead mheotSami tysletnednepe d tn eoiyrntaitn a duenqcairP
e rsaenilc eedci r fp;i)noitc etsx een hete sd(etatsre veo rsacitsita ttsnemnrev o ngsienilced
nneaohhitttut i et , rsdsdsebnseihuaettsla tss tr osuersipvel notahiu t p,fwemdoohoertctgatsrevo
data suggest.
ftonuo me ahtta hktni homtte esstsimono cyen aemsuac esbesi rnaoitavres edrnoc eAs
6 doetrre fxeorda rwao p letohhStgu o,efhynitloevitanre tlA laborh t,nwyeothritgvitc udorp
.ytivitcudo rrpotcafitl utmcef fta osne o td finie v,eytivitcudo rrpob atlcef flal itwup nrietupm onci
e vt aswhuo mlt oa,Sh)telpm ar,xo0 ef9,9d1i ve aesDsr (e dho e t ts m, oo mse estteaetmaiesIhs
rob a,les a.y cynntaIivitcudo rrpob at lod nn,aytivitcudo rrpotcafitl utmuo bganikl anteeb
.3 7r9e1 tdfeaw ool ssyltaivitcudorp
6
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d n,ayro ttsnemerusaems ieaombs ltas uemre h,twe isv i .h nntOoitutitsb utsup nmio rtfs utjcepxe
.yro tnsoitutitsb utsup ne i hfytotidil ae v hfstoseldrag e,ryro tystivitcudo rgpnis s eiarmofereht
.wol e,bI InVoitc e nsdiessucs i sdwie isvihT
rotcafitl utms ut jo,nw ools lsyaitivitcudo rrpob aeltagerg gtaa hsntioitavres edrri hAt
dlu oyhtsivitcud orrop bna el,hsttu prnei httsoni adgeatutits btu sssurjet u.py mtfoiIcvitcudorp
. ts oeynotdivitcud orroptcafit lhugmu on he,tv)erek rrloeawpti pdaecsae r ecfsnouiac ewbo(rg
yrtsud nsiesi aerga sruetupm oecvisnet neir o:Mlev eylrtsud ne ihtttaa htts usjwo h)s899 1h(oritS
rotcafit lyurmtsu densi i tasor en tto,uidnboitutits btuus phngiuo ryhttivitcud orropbal
tcap mrio j eaak maolmtla mo sosstiretupm ofecora he sh,tlev eeltager g .ge yahtttAivitcudorp
no rehtie tuptuo htworg ro robal.ytivitcudorp
ytivitcudo rwpol oe Shdteterpretni e)rylticilp xt eohnguoh tt(cef fnse ia)h799 1m(malF
x:o xdro a odurstaoaacrY puaedpe ns aoechitmes semiconductor age ntis utj odnn ae(rehwyre ve
na hytldip aerr onme vdeeppo redv ashrotcudnocim er sosfexed ne ic.i )ryPrtsud nrietupm oecht
sfdo nriek hot tosonrgiotcudnoci m de,ns )anIoIit cnneoisissuc s eiehd etsse(c irreptupmoc
.)elpma xre o,fselibomot u nasomets ynsoisneps u”stnegilletn id“ nsaeka rkbcolitn ay(renihcam
tnecr ed8pnuo r tasaeci rrpotcudnocim egsninilc emdo rsfulpr ursemusn oec hstetalucl amcmalF
fyorots irhaey- 0e 5hrte vroebm ue ng osuatehtalum uhcci h,whtwo rP gDlGaun nfao
timr et poosndtlus esr’mma l,Fxodar ayptivitcudo re phfstoisyla n e a.hr storFotcudnocimes
noitutitsb utsup nfeiosuac esbesi rtaa hstrotcudnocim er sodfnam ee dhfttor ae phgtnihsiugnitsid
t oasdhttu ptnsini atgnaempi ugqneisu-rotcudnoci mree s hdstnroaetu p nmfoooictutits beuhst(
evor pym eiehstua cseebs itr aadhnta mreodtcudnoci mtfe ro sea dhp,nt)asrotcudnoci m eetssoun
mma l,Freve w. o)Hytivitcudo rtpcef f oayde hdteed nfi is(eirtsud ngini s fuyotivitcudo repht
rie hstem itthg iyelhgu otsrarotcudnocim er sodfnam efydoticitsa lhetwo rtgupt ue ohstetamitse
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htw o errohgattli m,iyslsuotiut rsopfah r ,etsp airhet b, msaurn atenye c re 2ord.fn0u oPsrDiaG
.sretup m rosocnfoitaluc lgancitnuocca
r otfnuoc cyae hetsuac ehbtwo rongtoitubirtn olcl a emak sasmretupm o,cyramm unsI
tonn aecsiwek iyle htta httsegg uesra hlsla mesm aes hst e. otDup nliatip a fceora hlsla myaslno
re h rtcooif proatl us pnaoipa mxeord a .r esa thpp uta?Bhy rteiPvitcud otnrcopa penmvaiah
.snoitc egsniwoll oef h ntdiessucs ied rhaci h,wsnosaer
7
II. You only think you see computers everywhere.
detal freedtup meorcofer ed hntt a so(la olfstaefxe denc iirreptup mt oanchotitnet neohcT
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sretup m rosocefxe denci i .r. Spe e.dhU iTss ia .th wtu t nocpeaneWcp snuoss ase ir rhdotnfa
,elpma xre o,fee ss(tlus egrnillaf-yldip arralim ihst i,wseirtnu orceh tro odfetacilp enre eebvah
na hytldip aerr onme vlel asfrotcudnocim ers osfexed neici rcpino d. e)Hecna rrF o6f9 9,1uaeroM
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.er eyhll uefr osmtnemug rease hrtedisn ooyctrassec etnon
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ev ashre sy.un sakMs er dufyoon aontm soitsa hstretupm olcanosr ee phhtt iewn oydllautca
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8
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r oxfed neici rep hdtraw pgunisiv esreifits uyjldr ashi h tt. utBup nniam ueh hntet f sokicenelttob
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erawtf or sosfexed neici rtpa hstevres byohtr a.C scrMetupm or cosfexed neici rcpinod enho
retupm onca hytldip asrs eelnilc esdeci reprawtf otsa hstetaluce pds n,atsi xte o onydllacipyt
esabat ad dn,asteehsdaer p,ssegakc agpnisseco rdpr or wosfexed neici r,pylla u.t sceAcirp
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9
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.swoll o sfdaetats- e srtinemug rsa’yhtraC c fMyiltneg oecr odmesserd d eanb aecus seihT
sftaaohguo hen tbaxced neici rrpetupm oAc price index for computer characteristics.
xe denci i erthp at dh,ntraae n eisrlnaoitc ncuifno dte ah,hntoitiso p exefhe kot ea rhs,otefsoppuS
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(2) I =Ia I+b +Ic
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z s c
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xed neicir pe "hogttnidroc cdaetcurtsn oycllaut cear eswexed neici rrpetupm occinod efhI
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mn ri eohshfciti hswc(itsiretcar aehrcawd rsfaeoh thatrw oefrgogar edveathg i eehshwtatworg
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feoul aev hrt osfeci rrpetupm odcevres bgonitsuj dyatila u yqdbetalucl aycllaut cea rsaexedni
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1c 2c
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.sno iot tphmtuosbsa
10