What Are the Chances?: Voodoo Deaths, Office Gossip, and Other Adventures in Probability PDF
Preview What Are the Chances?: Voodoo Deaths, Office Gossip, and Other Adventures in Probability
WHAT ARE THE CHANCES? What Are the Chances? Voodoo Deaths, Office Gossip, and Other Adventures in Probability Bart K. Holland ©2002TheJohnsHopkinsUniversityPress Allrightsreserved.Published2002 PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmericaonacid-freepaper 987654321 TheJohnsHopkinsUniversityPress 2715NorthCharlesStreet Baltimore,Maryland21218-4363 www.press.jhu.edu LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData Holland,BartK. Whatarethechances?:voodoodeaths,officegossip, andotheradventuresinprobability/BartK.Holland. p. cm. Includesindex. ISBN0-8018-6941-2(hardcover:alk.paper) 1.Probabilities—Popularworks.2.Chance—Popular works.I.Title. QA273.15.H652002 519.2–dc21 2001005687 AcatalogrecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary. ForAliciaandCharlie Contents Preface ix Acknowledgments xi 1. RouletteWheelsandthePlague 1 2. SurelySomething’sWrongwithYou 31 3. TheLifeTable:YouCanBetonIt! 51 4. TheRarestEvents 71 5. TheWaitingGame 95 6. StockbrokersandClimateChange 109 Index 137 Preface IhaveneverbeenabletofigureoutwhatsubjectIwouldmostliketostudy, andIstillcan’tdecide.Anoddconfessionperhaps,comingfromonewitha tenuredprofessorshipinaspecializedarea(andinhisfifthdecadeoflife,to boot).Yet,evenwithintheconfinesofacademia,thereissuchawidevari- etyofpotentiallyusefulandinterestingworktochoosefromthatithasalways seemedratherarbitraryandlimitingtofocusonasinglesubjecttotheexclu- sionofothers.Ontheotherhand,specializationisrequiredbythejobmar- ket.Noonemovesupwhoremainsa“jackofalltradesandmasterofnone.” Andspecializationisrequiredinordertobeproductiveinresearch. Forthescientificallyinclined,onesolutiontothisdilemmaistobewell trainedinthemethodsofprobabilityandstatistics,whichcanthenbeapplied toabroadrangeofsubjects.Icametothissolutionneitherdeliberatelynor immediately,butgraduallyandbyaccident.IncollegeItookmanyenlight- eningcoursesinanthropology,followedbydemography.Takingtheminthis order,Isawwithfascinationhowregularitiesemergedfromthemostindivid- ualisticbehaviorswhensocietieswerestudiedenmasse.ThenIsawthatthe samewastrueinbiology:thelawsofprobabilitycouldsummarizeandpre- dictphenomenaasdiverseaspopulationgeneticsandreactionstomedicines. Economics,physics,geology,psychology—everywhereyoulookedprobabil- itymathematicswasausefultoolandcontributedsomethingimportantto humanunderstanding. Thesedays,Iuseprobabilityandstatisticsprimarilyinmedicalresearch, toprovidephysicianswithusefulinformationfromexperimentsthatwould otherwiseseemdifficulttointerpret,ifnotchaotic.However,Ineverlostmy interestinotherareasandhavealwaysmadeanoteofinteresting(andprefer- ablyodd)examplesshowingprobability’sapplicationsmoregenerally.Thus thisbook:I’vefinallyhadtheopportunitytoputmyfavoriteexamplesonpa- per,thankstoTrevorLipscombeandtheJohnsHopkinsUniversityPress.I hope that you find the examples intriguing, and an effective way to learn somebasicconceptsofprobabilityandstatisticalmethods.Andperhapsyou willevensharemyamazementwhenyouseetheextenttowhichprobabil- ityinfluencessomanyfacetsofhumanlife. ix
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