Webinar - NAS 2050 transitions - vehicle deep dive v7.pptx

66 Pages·2013·4.34 MB·English

by  John German

Transitioning to Alternative
Vehicles and Fuels:

Vehicle technology
assessment in the NAS report"
John German, ICCT!
April 25, 2013!
NAS Committee on
Overall report task and
Transitions to Alternative
findings!
Vehicles and Fuels"
2
Statement
 of
 Task

•  Relative to 2005, how can on-road LDV fleet
reduce"
•  Petroleum use: 50% by 2030, 80% by 2050"
•  GHG emissions: 80% by 2050"
•  Assess cost and performance of vehicle and
fuel technology options that contribute to
meeting the goals, and barriers that hinder
their adoption"
•  Suggest policies to achieve the goals"
•  Comment on Federal R&D programs"
3
Poten.al
 Pathways

•  Four pathways contribute to both goals"
•  Highly efficient internal combustion vehicles (including
hybrids)"
•  Vehicles operating on biofuels"
•  Vehicles operating on electricity"
•  Vehicles operating on hydrogen"
•  Natural gas vehicles reduce petroleum consumption
but have limited impact on GHG emissions"
•  Small amounts of leakage can offset CO2 benefits"
"
Note: GHG benefits of biofuels, electricity and hydrogen depend on their
being produced without large GHG emissions. This expands the need for
controlling emissions beyond the transportation sector."
4
Key
 Findings

•  No pathway is adequate by itself to meet the
goals; at least two and maybe more will be
needed depending on technological and
commercial success."
•  Improved efficiency is essential to the success
of the other pathways."
•  The goals will be difficult but not impossible to
meet if supported by strong national policies."
•  Even if the goals are not completely met,
partial success can still yield valuable benefits."
5
Policy
 Sugges.ons

•  Strong and effective policies are required to achieve
success with any scenario."
•  Policies must drive use of LDV technology advances
in fuel economy and reducing GHG emissions as
opposed to increased performance."
•  Policy must drive changes to non-petroleum fuel
infrastructure to greatly reduce GHG emissions."
•  Uncertainty makes it impossible to know which
technologies will be ultimately successful."
•  Therefore, policies must be broad, robust, and
adaptive."
6
Committee Subgroups"
§  Vehicles"
§  Fuels"
§  Modeling"
This webinar will take a deep dive into the vehicle
inputs and modeling."
"
For the full report, see:"
http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=18264"
7
NAS Committee 2050 No existing data and
models for 2050 –
Technology
needed to create new
Assessment"
techniques!
8
Overall Approach"
§  Assumed policies exist to drive technology development and
implementation"
§  Two technology success pathways"
§  Midrange: Committee’s best assessment should all technologies
be pursued vigorously"
§  Optimistic: Stretch case with more optimistic, but still feasible,
assumptions "
§  Great care was taken to apply consistent assumptions to all
technologies, e.g.:"
§  Same amount of load reduction for all vehicle types"
§  Vehicle costs built up from one vehicle type to the next"
§  Assessed system efficiencies and losses, not individual
technologies, including fundamental technology limitations"
9
Vehicle Efficiency: Modeling Overview and Flow"
10