Weapons of Terror - Freeing the World of Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Arms

231 Pages·2006·3.42 MB·English

WEAPONS
OF TERROR
Freeing the World of Nuclear,
Biological and Chemical Arms
WMDC Commissioners
Hans Blix, Chairman
Dewi Fortuna Anwar
Alexei G. Arbatov
Marcos de Azambuja
Alyson J.K. Bailes
Jayantha Dhanapala
Gareth Evans
Patricia Lewis
Masashi Nishihara
William J. Perry
Vasantha Raghavan
Cheikh Sylla
Prince El Hassan bin Talal
Pan, Zhenqiang
WEAPONS
OF TERROR
Freeing the World of Nuclear,
Biological and Chemical Arms

WEAPONS
OF TERROR
Freeing the World of Nuclear,
Biological and Chemical Arms
© 2006 Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission.
All rights reserved.
This publication may be reproduced in full or in
part if accompanied with the following citation:
Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission,
final report, ‘Weapons of Terror: Freeing the World
of Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Arms’,
Stockholm, Sweden, 1 june 2006.
For electronic copies of this report, please visit
www.wmdcommission.org.
isbn: 91-38-22582-4
Printing: EO Grafiska, Stockholm
Design: Fidelity Stockholm AB
Photo: NASA/Roger Ressmeyer/Corbis
Contents
Abbreviations ....................................................................................8
Chairman’s preface ...........................................................................11
Synopsis ..........................................................................................17
Chapter 1. Reviving disarmament .....................................................21
Why weapons of mass destruction matter ............................................23
Disarmament in disarray ...................................................................24
The aim and approach of this report ...................................................26
Chapter 2. Weapons of terror: threats and responses ........................31
The nature of threats from weapons of mass destruction .......................32
Nuclear-weapon threats ..............................................................36
Biological-weapon threats ............................................................40
Chemical-weapon threats ............................................................42
Traditional responses to threats of weapons of mass destruction ............43
Unilateral responses ....................................................................44
Bilateral responses ......................................................................45
Plurilateral responses ..................................................................46
Regional responses ......................................................................47
Global responses .........................................................................48
Weaknesses in traditional responses ...................................................50
Lack of universality .....................................................................50
Withdrawal ................................................................................51
Inadequate verification ................................................................51
Non-compliance .........................................................................52
Lack of enforcement ....................................................................54
New responses to threats from weapons of terror .................................54
Counter-proliferation ..................................................................55
Three conclusions for collective action ................................................56
Chapter 3. Nuclear weapons .............................................................59
Preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons ...................................62
The Non-Proliferation Treaty .......................................................62
Evolving treaty commitments .......................................................64
Cases of non-compliance .............................................................66
Security assurances .....................................................................72
The fuel cycle: controlling the production of enriched uranium
and plutonium ............................................................................73
Fissile material clean-out .............................................................78
Regional issues and arrangements .................................................79
Preventing nuclear terrorism ..............................................................83
How could terrorists acquire nuclear weapons? ..............................83
Physical protection measures ........................................................85
Reducing the threat and the numbers of existing nuclear weapons ..........87
The need to re-examine and revise nuclear doctrines .......................88
Deployment of nuclear weapons ...................................................92
New limits on deployments of non-strategic nuclear weapons ..........95
Development of new nuclear weapons ...........................................98
Disposal of fissile material from warheads ......................................99
Ending production of weapons-usable fissile material:
a fissile material cut-off treaty ......................................................103
Ending all nuclear-weapon tests:
the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty ................................105
From regulating nuclear weapons to outlawing them ...........................108
Chapter 4. Biological and toxin weapons .........................................111
Prohibition of biological weapons ......................................................113
Prospects for the future ....................................................................115
Strengthening the role of the Convention ......................................115
National implementation ............................................................117
Institutional deficit .....................................................................119
Implementation of the Convention ...............................................119
Life sciences and the role of scientists ............................................121
Chapter 5. Chemical weapons .........................................................125
The Chemical Weapons Convention ..................................................127
Destroying the chemical-weapon stockpiles ..................................129
Promoting universality ...............................................................130
Non-lethal weapons, incapacitants and riot control agents ..............132
Enhancing the CWC’s inspection and monitoring capacity ..............134
Chemical terrorism ..........................................................................135
The threat of terrorist attacks against chemical industry .................135
Chapter 6. Delivery means, missile defences, and weapons in space .139
Means of WMD delivery ..................................................................140
Missile defences ............................................................................. 144
The weaponization of space ..............................................................146
Current status of the outer space security regime ...........................147
Chapter 7. Export controls, international assistance,
and non-governmental actors ........................................................ 153
Export controls and other controls on the movement of goods ............. 154
Control of movement of goods .................................................... 154
International assistance for non-proliferation and disarmament ........... 155
Sectoral roles: business, research, voluntary organizations,
and the public .................................................................................157
The responsibility of companies and the business sector .................157
The responsibility of scientists: codes of conduct ...........................158
Democratic control: role of representative institutions ....................159
Democratic control: NGOs and transparency ................................160
Public information and education ................................................161
Chapter 8. Compliance, verification, enforcement
and the role of the United Nations ...................................................165
Compliance ....................................................................................168
Verification .....................................................................................169
Enforcement ...................................................................................175
The role of the United Nations ..........................................................177
The United Nations disarmament machinery ................................177
The role of the UN Security Council .............................................180
Beyond WMD .................................................................................183
Annex 1: WMDC recommendations .................................................188
Annex 2: Work of the Commission .................................................. 206
Mandate .................................................................................. 206
Commissioners’ biographies ...................................................... 209
Secretariat ................................................................................212
Financial and organizational support ..........................................212
Acknowledgements ...................................................................213
Sessions ...................................................................................214
Seminars and other public meetings .............................................215
Published WMDC studies ...........................................................217
Index ............................................................................................ 220
Abbreviations
ABM Anti-ballistic missile
ASAT Anti-satellite (weapon)
BMD Ballistic missile defence
BW Biological weapon/warfare
BTWC Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention
CBM Confidence-building measure
CBW Chemical and biological weapons
CD Conference on Disarmament
CFE Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (Treaty)
CTBT Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty
CTBTO Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization
CTR Cooperative threat reduction
CW Chemical weapon/warfare
CWC Chemical Weapons Convention
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization
FMCT Fissile material cut-off treaty
G8 Group of Eight, group of eight leading industrialized states
GTRI Global Threat Reduction Initiative
HCOC Hague Code of Conduct
HEU Highly enriched uranium
IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency
ICBM Intercontinental ballistic missile
ICJ International Court of Justice
INF Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (Treaty)
LEU Low-enriched uranium
MAD Mutual assured destruction
MIRV Multiple, independently targetable re-entry vehicle
MTCR Missile Technology Control Regime
NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration (US)
NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NBC Nuclear/biological/chemical
NGO Non-governmental organization
NPT Non-Proliferation Treaty
NSG Nuclear Suppliers Group
NWFZ Nuclear-weapon-free zone
NWS Nuclear-weapon state
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