War in the modern great power system : 1495-1975

230 Pages·1983·17.928 MB·English

by  Jack S Levy

War in the Modern
Great Power System
This page intentionally left blank
War in
the Modern
Great Power
System,
1495-1975
JackS. Levy
THE UNIVERSITY PRESS OF KENTUCKY
Copyright© 1983 by The University Press of Kentucky
Scholarly publisher for the Commonwealth,
serving Bellarmine College, Berea College, Centre
College of Kentucky, Eastern Kentucky University,
The Filson Club, Georgetown College, Kentucky
Historical Society, Kentucky State University,
Morehead State University, Murray State University,
Northern Kentucky University, Transylvania University,
University of Kentucky, University of Louisville,
and Western Kentucky University.
Editorial and Sales Offices: Lexington, Kentucky 40506-0024
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Levy, JackS., 1948-
War in the modern great power system, 1495-1975.
Bibliography: p.
Includes index.
I. War. 2. Great powers. 3. Balance of power.
4. World politics. 5. Military history, Modern.
I. Title.
U21.2.L44 1983 355'.02'094 83-10249
ISBN 978-0-8131-5339-1
To Mom and Dad
Contents
Preface xi
1. Introduction: The Empirical Study of War 1
2. The Modern Great Power System 8
Assumptions of the Great Power Framework 8
Definition of the Great Power Concept 10
Origins of the Modem Great Power System 19
Composition of the System 24
Exclusions from the System 44
The Modem Great Power System 46
3. Definition and Identification of the Wars SO
Definition of War 50
Existing Compilations of Wars 53
Criteria for Inclusion and Exclusion 57
Initiation, Termination, and Aggregation of War 63
Potential Biases in the Selection Procedures 69
Wars in the Modem Great Power System 74
4. Measurement of the Wars 77
Conceptualization of War 77
Operational Indicators and Measurement Procedures 81
The War Data 92
5. Quantitative Description of the Wars 93
Characteristics of Individual Wars 94
Yearly Amount of War 97
Relationships among the War Indicators 101
6. Historical Trends in War 112
Linear Trends 112
Cyclical Trends 136
Comparison of Historical Periods 138
Interpretation of Historical Trends 144
7. War Contagion 150
Conceptualization of War Contagion 150
The Contagion of Individual Wars 156
Frequencies of War in Successive Periods 161
Contagion of the Total Amount of War 164
Summary and Interpretation 166
8. Conclusion: A Base for Further Investigation 169
Appendix: Estimation of Missing Battle Death Data 172
Notes 176
Selected Bibliography 200
Index 211
Tables
2.1 The Modern Great Power System, 1495-1975 48
3.1 Interstate Wars Involving the Great Powers, 1495-1975 70
3.2 General Wars 75
4.1 The War Data 88
5.1 Characteristics of the Wars 96
5.2 Yearly Amount of War Under Way: Summary Statistics 99
5.3 Characteristics of Aggregated War Data, Five-Year Periods 101
5.4 Correlation Matrix (tau-b) of War Indicators 105
5.5 Correlation Matrix (tau-b) of Indicators for War Under Way per Year
107
5.6 Correlation Matrices (tau-b) of War Indicators for Five-, Ten-, and
Twenty-Five-Year Periods 108
5.7 Correlations (tau-b) between Frequency of War and Characteristics of
the Average War 110
6.1 Historical Trends in War: Tau-b and Regression Coefficients for the
Individual Wars 124
6.2 Historical Trends in the Amount of War Under Way: Tau-band Regres
sion Coefficients 132
6.3 Historical Trends in the Amount of War Beginning: Tau-band Regres-
sion Coefficients 134
6.4 Comparison of the Centuries by Amount of War 139
6.5 Comparison of the Centuries by Amount of Great Power War 141
6.6 Comparison of Modified Centuries by Amount of War 143
7.1 Correlations (r) between War Indicators and Measures of Subsequent
War 159
7.2 The Distribution of Wars: Theoretical Poisson vs. Observed 163
7.3 Correlations (r) between Frequency of War and Lagged War Indicators
165
7.4 Regression of Frequency of War on Lagged War Indicators: Standard
ized Betas and Variance Explained 166
Figures
5.1 Histograms of the War Indicators 95
5.2 Histograms: Yearly Amount of War Under Way 98
5.3 Histograms: Frequency of War 102
5.4 Histograms: Frequency of Great Power War 103
6.1 Scattergrams: Frequency of War and Great Power War 118
6.2 Scattergrams: Characteristics of the Wars 120
6.3 Scattergrams: Characteristics of Great Power Wars 126
6.4 Graphs: Amount of War, Twenty-Five Year Periods 133