Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change for Bangladesh

157 Pages·1999·4.656 MB·English

by  Saleemul Huq, M. Asaduzzaman (auth.), S. Huq, Z. Karim, M. Asaduzzaman, F. Mahtab (eds.)

VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION TO
CLIMATE CHANGE FOR BANGLADESH
Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Change for Bangladesh
Edited by
S. Huq
Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies,
Dhaka, Bangladesh
Z. Karim
Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council,
Dhaka, Bangladesh
M. Asaduzzaman
Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies,
Dhaka, Bangladesh
and
F. Mahtab
Institute ofE ngineers,
Dhaka, Bangladesh
SPRINGER-SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA, B.V.
A C.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress.
ISBN 978-90-481-5160-8 ISBN 978-94-015-9325-0 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-94-015-9325-0
Printed on acid-free paper
All Rights Reserved
© 1999 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
Originally published by Kluwer Academic Publishers in 1999
Softcover reprint ofthe hardcover lst edition 1999
No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or
utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical,
including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and
retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner.
Contents
Tables XI
Figures X Ill
Preface XV
Overview
Saleemul Huq and M Asaduzzaman
l. Introduction
2. The Physical Environment 2
2.1. Location 2
2.2. Physiograpy and Relief 2
2.3. Climate 4
2.4. Surface and Groundwater Hydrology 4
3. Social and Economic Settings 5
3 .I. Main Societal Features 5
3.2. Economy 7
4. Studies: Previous and Present 7
4.1. Previous Studies 7
4.2. The Present Study 8
4.3. Findings ofthe Present Study 8
5. Conclusion 10
Development of Climate Change Scenarios with General Circulation
Models
Ahsan Uddin Ahmed and Mozaharul A/am
I. Introduction 14
2. Estimation Methodology and Results 16
2.1 Temperature 16
2.2 Precipitation 18
2.3 Evaporation 18
3. Conclusions 19
Water Resources Vulnerability to Climate Change With Special
Reference to Inundation
Mozaharul A/am, Ain-Un Nishat and Saad M Siddiqui
I. Introduction 22
2. Methodology 23
3. Description ofMIKEII Model 25
3.1 General Model 26
3.2 Regional Model 26
4. Assumptions for Model Runs 26
5. Creation of Water Depth Spatial Database for the Year 1990, 2030
and 2075 27
6. Assumptions for Assessment of the Changes of Land Type 27
6.1 MPO Land Types 28
6.2 Land Type Change Matrix 29
7. Assessment of the Changes ofLand Type 30
7.1 Existing (1990) Land Type and Area 31
7.2 Land Type and Area in 2030 33
7.3 Land Type and Area in 2075 33
8. Conclusions 38
Climate Change Vulnerability of Crop Agriculture
Zahurul Karim, Sk Ghulam Hussain and Ahsan Uddin Ahmed
1. Introduction 40
2. General Vulnerability of Crop Agriculture in Bangladesh 40
3. Climate Change Induced Vulnerability to Crop Production 43
3.1 Effect on Aggregated Production ofFoodgrain 43
3.1.1 Climate Models 43
3.1.2 Crop Models 45
3.1.3 HYV AusRice 45
3.1.4 HYV Aman Rice 46
3.1.5 HYV Boro Rice 46
3.1.6 Wheat 46
3.2 Effect of Climate Change on Crop Growing Season 47
3.3 Moisture Stress Scenario 47
4. Implication of Climate Change 48
5. Management Options for Adaptation to Reduce Vulnerability 51
6. Conclusions 51
Assessment of Foodgrain Production Loss Due to Climate Induced
Enhanced Soil Salinity
Mohammad Habibullah, Ahsan Uddin Ahmed and Zahurul Karim
1. Introduction 56
1.1 The Soil Salinisation Process: An Overview 56
2. Approach and Methodology 57
3. Results 58
3.1 Soil Salinity Development 58
3.2 Possible Impact of Soil Salinity on Foodgrain Production 62
4. Conclusions 69
vi
Beach Erosion in the Eastern Coastline of Bangladesh
S.M Rakibu/ Islam, Sa/eemu/ Huq and Anwar Ali
I. Introduction 72
2. Coastal Morphology of Bangladesh 72
2.1 Eastern Region 75
2.2 Central Region 75
2.3 Western Region 75
3. Review of Erosion Studies in Bangladesh 75
4. Erosion Dynamics or Causes of Erosion 78
4.1 Discharge Current 78
4.2 Tide 78
4.3 Monsoon Current 79
4.4 Storm Surges 79
5. Theory of Erosion due to Sea Level Rise 79
6. Survey and Study Area 82
6.1 First Part 82
6.1.1 Bakkhali River Valley 82
6.1.2 Southern Beach Plain 82
6.1.3 Nhila-TeknafPlain 84
6.2 Second Part 84
6.3 Third Part 84
7. Data Collection 84
7.1 Methodology of Taking Readings 84
8. Data Analysis, Results and Discussions 85
9. Recommendations 90
Vulnerability of Forest Ecosystems of Bangladesh to Climate Change
Ahsan Uddin Ahmed, Neaz Ahmed Siddiqi and Rawshan Ali Choudhuri
I. Introduction 94
2. The State of Forests in Bangladesh 94
2.1 Natural Hill Forest Ecosystem 95
2.1.1 Dipterocarp Forest 95
2.1.2 Savanna 95
2.1.3 Bamboo 95
2.1.4 Freshwater Swamp Forests 97
2.2 Natural Sal Forest Ecosystem 97
2.3 Littoral Mangrove Ecosystem 97
2.4 Plantation Forest Ecosystems 98
2.5 Village Forest Ecosystem 98
2.6 Forest Fauna 99
2.7 Forest Product Requirement and Productivity 99
2.8 Deforestation and Forest Degradation 100
3. General Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Forests 101
vii
4. Impacts on Forests in Bangladesh 102
5. Impacts on Mangrove Forests 103
5.1 General Features of the Sundarbans 104
5.1.1 0 ligohaline (or miohaline) Zone 105
5.1.2 Mesohaline Zone 105
5.1.3 Polyhaline Zone 105
5.2 Possible Impacts on the Sundarbans Ecosystem 106
5.3 Probable Adaptation Alternatives 108
6. Conclusions 108
Fish Resources Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in
Bangladesh
M Youssouf Ali
1. Introduction 114
2. Primary Fish Habitat 114
2.1 Rivers and their Floodplains 115
2.2 Beels 115
2.3 Estuaries 116
3. Fish Species Diversity 117
3.1 Inland Waters 118
3.1.1 Large Sized Fishes 118
3.1.2 Small Sized Fishes 118
3.2 Marine Water of the Upper Bay 119
3.3 Prawns 119
3.4 Exotic Species ofFishes 120
4. Description of Main Fisheries Likely to be Affected by Climate
Change 120
4.1 Marine and Estuarine Capture Fisheries 121
4.2 Fresh Water Capture Fisheries 121
4.3 Freshwater Pond Culture of Fisher 121
4.4 Brackish Water Shrimp Farming in the Coastal Districts 122
5. Probable Adaptation Alternatives 123
Adaptation to Climate Change in Bangladesh: Future Outlook
Ahsan Uddin Ahmed, Mozaharul A/am and A. Atiq Rahman
1. Introduction 125
2. Vulnerability to Climate Change 127
3. Response to Climate Change 129
3.1. Types of Adaptation 130
3.2. Anticipatory Adaptation Measures 130
3.2.1. Bear Losses 130
3.2.2. Share Losses 130
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3.2.3. Modify the Threat 130
3.2.4. Prevent Effects 131
3.2.5. Change Use 131
3.2.6. Change Location 131
3.3. Possible Actors and their Respective Domains 132
3.3.1. Global Level 132
3.3.2. National Level 133
3.3.3. Sub-national Level 134
3.3.4. Local Level 134
3.4. Opportunities for Bangladesh: An Assessment 134
3.5. Challenges of Managing Adaptation 137
4. Way Ahead 138
Subject Index 145
ix
Tables
Overview
Table I. Major sectoral share of GDP 7
Development of Climate Change Scenarios With General Circulation
Models
Table 1. Extent of changes in temperature, precipitation and evaporation I7
Water Resources Vulnerability to Climate Change With Special
Reference to Inundation
Table I. The fluctuations of values of the parameters considered with
respect to their values under base year situation. 23
Table 2. Classification of water levels 28
Table 3. MPO land types 29
Table 3.I. Land type change matrix for FOland (0-30 em) 29
Table 3.2. Land type change matrix for FI land (30-90 em) 30
Table 3.3. Land type change matrix for F2land (90-I80 em) 30
Table 3.4. Land type change matrix for F3 land (180-360 em) 30
Table 3.5. Land type change matrix for F4land (>360 em) 3I
Table 4. The existing ( I990) land area by land types (in sq. km) 3I
Table 5. Changes of land from one class to the others in 2030 (in sq. km) 33
Table 6. Changes of land from one class to the others in 2075 (in sq. km) 36
Climate Change Vulnerability of Crop Agriculture
Table 1. Crop statistics of major cereals for the fiscal year 1994-95 41
Table 2. Rice and wheat production under different climate change
scenarios 46
Table 3. Percent change in Boro yields under different climate scenarios
and irrigation levels 48
Assessment of Foodgrain Production Loss Due to Climate Induced
Enhanced Soil Salinity
Table I. Soil salinity classification on the basis of electrical conductivity 57
Table 2. Soil salinity distribution under baseline condition (CCSO) 62
Table 3. Soil salinity distribution under the moderate climate change
scenario (CCS1) 62
Table 4. Soil salinity distribution under the severe climate change
scenario (CCS2) 65
Table 5. Loss of Aus production under the three scenarios (without
adaptation) 65
Table 6. Loss of Aman production under the three scenarios (without
adaptation) 66
Table 7. Total loss in foodgrain production under the three climate
xi
change scenarios 66
Table 8. Loss of Aus production under adaptation scenarios 67
Table 9. Loss of Aman production under adaptation scenarios 68
Table 10. Overall foodgrain production loss due to soil salinity with
adaptation 68
Beach Erosion in the Eastern Coastline of Bangladesh
Table 1. Land area in the Meghna-estuary (in sq. km) 76
Table 2. Change detection study for the period 1960-84 (in sq. km) 76
Table 3. Areas of mainland and char/islands and number of chars/islands
in 1973 and 1987 (in sq. km) 77
Table 4. Comparative statement of erosion and accretion 77
Table 5. Erosion due to SLR for two different erosion rates (area in sq.
~ ~
Table 6. Coastal recession due to SLR based on field survey, August 1995 85
Table 7. Recession distance per 1 em rise is sea level for three cases of30
em, 75 em and 100 em SLR 87
Table 8. Loss of land due to SLR 87
Vulnerability of Forest Ecosystems of Bangladesh to Climate Change
Table 1. Land area classification ofBangladesh 95
Table 2. Classified and unclassified state forest land by physical cover (in
hectares) 97
Table 3. The general vegetation types in respect to soil salinity zones 106
Fish Resources Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in
Bangladesh
Table 1. Areas under different types of inland open waters areas 117
Table 2. Brackish water shrimp farm areas in the coastal districts of
Bangladesh and total production of shrimp from the farms 122
Table 3. Quantity of shrimp exported and income earned in different year 122
Adaptation to Climate Change in Bangladesh: Future Outlook
Table 1. Possibilities of awareness induced adaptations with respect to
socio-economic activities 13 5
Table 2. Some identified adaptation options with respect to water and
agriculture sectors 136
xii