Værdiansættelse af Vestas Wind Systems A/S

150 Pages·2011·5.02 MB·Danish

02-05-2011 Udarbejdet af
HA(almen) 6. semester Jens Sønderby Nielsen
(288697)

Niclas Maabari Skovbjerg
(403286)

Vejleder
David Sloth Pedersen
Finance Research Group
Erhvervsøkonomisk Institut

Censor
Ole Ø. Madsen

Bachelorafhandling
Værdiansættelse af Vestas Wind Systems A/S

Handelshøjskolen i Århus
2011
VESTAS
CORPORATE
VALUATION
Abstract
This bachelor thesis in financing with the subject of valuating Vestas Wind Systems A/S is
the final result of our bachelor education at Aarhus School of Business and thereby
represents the fruit of our combined knowledge and methodologies learned from
theoretical literature, teachers and our own comprehension of the real world business
problems, that we have been challenged with during the recent three years on ASB. The
main results from our work with valuating Vestas Wind System A/S will be explained in
the following section.

We chose to base our valuation on the renowned DCF model, which has become a favorite
valuation tool among analytics according to our main source, McKinsey’s Valuation –
Measuring and managing the value of companies, 2010, by Koller et al. After a discussion
of which models we were going to apply, our thesis went through the delimitations and
source criticism, and moved on to the strategic analysis of Vestas internal and external
non-financial factors. The most important among these factors for Vestas where the
volatile price movements of raw materials and carbon trading prices that were highly
influenced by the periods financial and credit crisis, political support of wind power,
technological development in the industry, and especially the impact of new entrants
from China that have challenged Vestas leading role in wind power production during the
recent years.
Through our analysis of Vestas shared values using McKinsey’s 7-s framework, we
accomplished a better understanding of the fundamental values in Vestas that are part of
the company’s ability to attract, maintain and develop skilled employees. Vestas firm
culture, spurred by the ambitions of CEO Ditlev Engel, is increasingly in danger of
eroding because the prestigious Triple 15 goals according to the market analytics will not
be reached in 2015.
After summarizing and supplementing the strategic analysis with additional
aspects in the SWOT framework, the thesis moved its focus onto the historical accounting
performance of Vestas, which combined with the analysis of strategic factors, would result
in a due-diligence investigation of the company. The historical accounts were adjusted for
valuation purpose which also involved adjustment for operational leasing which
otherwise would make Vestas return on invested capital seem higher than what is actually
the case. Because of the new accounting principles implemented in Vestas in 2010, we
chose to compare the old and new principles to further understand why American
investors have chosen to sue the company on the basis of destroying shareowners value,
despite the theory telling us that the mere change of appearance of cash flows won’t affect
company value, as long as the same cash flows enter and leave the company.
The conclusion of this part was that Vestas historical key performance indicators
were affected by the changes in the wind power market, mainly because of the financial
crisis, which deflated the growth and revenue incitements that Vestas based their
ambitious investment plans on, with the goal being annual production capacity of 10 GW.
Costly investments combined with slumping order intakes lead to disappointing ROIC-
values and negative free cash flows in most parts of the analyzed period.
By investigating the value creating ability of Vestas, the company’s weighted
average cost of capital was estimated, which was distinctively affected by the historically
low risk free rate and an industry beta that was highly sensitive to the statistical changes
of using certain peer-groups, marked indexes and observation periods.
The results of Vestas strategic and historical accounting investigation were
combined in the forecasting of the company’s future performance up to the year 2025,
followed by a calculation of the terminal value. Among other things, we took account in
our forecasting of Vestas ambitious investment plans in the previous years, that we have
deemed not representative for the following years, mainly because of the accumulated
overcapacity in the wind power industry in recent years. Further we assessed that Vestas
would not be able to keep up the large investments for long, without earning the needed
capital through their own operations.
Our DCF model with the input from all of our analysis and calculations valuated
Vestas share price to EUR 29,07, which is 5,3% below the actual share price on the
31.03.2011. We attribute this difference to the market being more optimistic about Vestas
future performance on the determination day, than our own.
To further evaluate the precision of our results, a sensitivity test was made,
showing us that certain important value drivers like the WACC components and EBIT-
margin had a huge impact on the estimated share value, even with relatively small
changes. The biggest change was observed when reducing the WACC with 2%, which
resulted in the price of the share doubling. Because of our DCF models sensitivity of
marginal changes in mainly the cost of capital and the EBIT-margin, the correctness of
our weighted share price is highly dependent on our correct estimation of these numbers.
Forord
I forbindelse med Vestas’ generalforsamling i Musikhuset i Århus d. 28-03-2011, vil vi
gerne sige tak til Vestas for invitationen, der indebar pressekort, forplejning og et
efterfølgende kort interview med koncerndirektør Ditlev Engel. Det var ønsket, at vi også
ville få en udtalelse fra koncernøkonomidirektør Henrik Nørremark omkring de
dybdegående finansielle aspekter, men han måtte ikke udtale sig mere konkret om de
forventede tal i fremtiden herunder størrelsen af leasingaktiviteterne. Det skal dog
nævnes, at vi igennem hele forløbet har forsøgt, at forholde os så unbiased i tilgangen som
muligt, men det kan ikke udelukkes, at vi til en vis grad er blevet påvirket af den givne
information.

Den strategiske analyse er primært bygget på de meget anerkendte informationer fra
BTM Consult såsom World Market Update 2009, Offshore Report 2009 og A 2030
Scenario. Den nye World Market Update 2010 kom først til biblioteket med levering d.
04-04-2011, hvorfor en del af analyserne fra 2009- udgaven i vores opgave er blevet
suppleret meget med fornyet information fra medier, dagblade, aviser, aktionærer og ikke
mindst meget materiale udgivet fra Vestas herunder årsrapporter etc. Det er efter vores
opfattelse ikke været muligt at gennemføre den strategiske analyse på baggrund af den
nyeste information fra BTM Consult, da 2010-rapporterne udkom alt for sent i forløbet.
Men set ud fra vores analyse, er konklusionerne ikke langt fra.

Den regnskabsmæssige analyse og den efterfølgende værdiansættelse bygger
hovedsageligt på McKinseys lærebog Valuation fra Koller et al. (benævnt Koller) fra 2010,
hvor DCF-modellen også stammer fra.

I og med at vi har benyttet to forskellige udgaver af Koller (se litteraturoversigten), og vi
først er blevet opmærksom herpå kort før afleveringsfrist, er forskellen mellem vores
udgaver blot to sider. Så hvis I umiddelbart ikke kan finde kilden fra sideangivelsen, så se
enten to sider frem i teksten, eller tilbage. Beklager meget ulejligheden!

Modellerne der benyttes gennem hele afhandlingen, vurderes af os, til at være nogle af de
mest anerkendte jf. teorien om værdiansættelse, og der vil ved hver figur tydeligt fremgå,
hvordan disse - i mere eller mindre grad - bør aflæses og forstås.

Som supplering kan der bagerst i opgaven findes en papmodel af en vindmølle, som står
læseren frit for at samle.

God læselyst!

Med venlig hilsen

Jens Sønderby Nielsen Niclas Maabari Skovbjerg
Indholdsfortegnelse
Indledende del (Kapitel 1) ................................................................... 1
Indledning ............................................................................................................ 1
Problemformulering ............................................................................................ 2
Metodevalg ........................................................................................................... 3
Afgrænsning ......................................................................................................... 4
Virksomhedsbeskrivelse (Kapitel 2) ................................................... 5
Historie................................................................................................................. 5
Forretningsmodel- og strategi ............................................................................. 6
Forretningsmodel ............................................................................................. 6
Organisation ..................................................................................................... 7
Ledelsesstruktur ...............................................................................................8
Vision, mission og strategiske mål ................................................................... 9
Markedsbeskrivelse ............................................................................................ 10
Konkurrentbeskrivelse ....................................................................................... 10
Strategisk analyse (Kapitel 3) ............................................................ 15
PEST ................................................................................................................... 15
Politik og lovgivning (Political) ...................................................................... 15
Økonomi og demografi (Economic) ............................................................... 16
Sociale og kulturelle forhold (Social) ............................................................. 18
Teknologi og miljø (Technological) ................................................................ 18
Opsummering ................................................................................................. 19
Porter’s Five Forces ........................................................................................... 20
Konkurrence mellem de eksisterende aktører i branchen ............................ 20
Truslen fra nyindtrædere på markedet .......................................................... 22
Truslen fra substituerende produkter ............................................................ 23
Kundernes forhandlingsstyrke ....................................................................... 24
Leverandørers forhandlingsstyrke ................................................................. 24
McKinseys 7-S model ......................................................................................... 25
SWOT analyse .................................................................................................... 29
Styrker ............................................................................................................ 29
Svagheder ....................................................................................................... 32
Muligheder ..................................................................................................... 33
Trusler ............................................................................................................ 35
Regnskabsanalyse (Kapitel 4) ............................................................ 37
Ny regnskabspraksis ..........................................................................................38
Vækstanalyse ...................................................................................................... 39
Valutakurseffekten af omsætning .................................................................. 44
Investeret kapital (IC) ........................................................................................ 45
NOPLAT ............................................................................................................. 47
Analyse af rentabilitet (ROIC) .......................................................................... 48
Free Cash Flow (FCF)......................................................................................... 51
Soliditetsgrad, soliditet og likviditet .................................................................. 52
Kapitalomkostninger (WACC) ........................................................................... 54
Egenkapitalomkostningerne (k ) .................................................................... 55
e
Risikofri rente (r) ........................................................................................... 56
f
Markedets forventede risikopræmie (R ) ...................................................... 57
m
Estimation af Vestas’ aktiebeta ...................................................................... 57
Industribeta .................................................................................................... 59
Fremmedkapitalomkostninger ....................................................................... 61
Operationel leasing ............................................................................................ 61
Pension, provision og realoptioner ....................................................................6 4
Pension ...........................................................................................................6 4
Provision .........................................................................................................6 4
Fleksibilitetsværdi .......................................................................................... 65
Forecast og værdiansættelse (Kapitel 5) ........................................... 66
Forecasting .........................................................................................................6 6
Scenarier af Vestas’ fremtid ...............................................................................6 9
Følsomhedsanalyse ........................................................................................ 74
Multipleanalyse .................................................................................................. 75
Konklusion (Kapitel 6) ......................................................................79
Læringsprocess ................................................................................ 80
Kildekritik ......................................................................................... 81
Litteraturoversigt ............................................................................. 82
Bøger .............................................................................................................. 82
Publikationer ................................................................................................. 82
Videnskabelige artikler ...................................................................................83
Artikler fra internettet ................................................................................... 84
Video .............................................................................................................. 86
CD-ROM med værdiansættelsesmodel ......................................................... 86
Bilag (Kapitel 7)................................................................................ 87
Bilag 1, Uddybende historieafsnit ...................................................................... 87
Bilag 2, Organisationsdiagram .......................................................................... 89
Bilag 3, Figurer over råvarepriser ..................................................................... 90
Bilag 4, Udvidet Politik og lovgivning (Political) ............................................... 91
Bilag 5, Udvidet McKinseys 7-S model ..............................................................9 6
Bilag 6, Udvidet Porters Five Forces ................................................................ 103
Truslen fra nyindtrædere på markedet ........................................................ 108
Truslen fra substituerende produkter ........................................................... 111
Kundernes forhandlingsstyrke ......................................................................1 13
Leverandørers forhandlingsstyrke ............................................................... 116
Bilag 7, Produktsortiment ................................................................................ 118
Bilag 8, Operationalisering af SWOT ............................................................... 118
Bilag 9, Operationalisering af SWOT ............................................................... 119
Bilag 10, Eksempel på ny regnskabspraksis......................................................121
Bilag 11, Udregning af WACC ........................................................................... 125
Bilag 12, Output fra EVIEWS til bestemmelse af indeks og periode ............... 125
Bilag 13, Output fra terminalen ....................................................................... 128
Bilag 14, Output fra Eviews til fem-årig historisk beta .................................... 128
Bilag 15, Bestemmelse af industribeta ..............................................................1 31
Bilag 16, Forsøg med beta over et år ................................................................ 132
Bilag 17, Beskrivelse af forecastvariable .......................................................... 133
Bilag 18, 2025 Scenarie trends ......................................................................... 135
Bilag 19, Større udgave af tabel 5.1 .................................................................. 136

Tabeloversigt
Tabel 4.1, Udvikling i Vestas omsætning mEUR (2006-2010), ........................ 39
Tabel 4.2, Omsætningsvækst fordelt på organisk vækst og ændring i
valutakurser (2007-2010), ................................................................................4 4
Tabel 4.3, Udvikling i investeret kapital inkl. og excl. goodwill mEUR (2006-
2010), ................................................................................................................ 45
Tabel 4.4, Udvikling af NOPLAT i mEUR (2007-2010), .................................. 47
Tabel 4.5, ROIC inkl. og excl. Goodwill og andre immaterielle aktiver i %
(2007-2010), .....................................................................................................4 9
Tabel 4.6, ROIC inkl. og excl. goodwill og andre immaterielle aktiver i % før
ændring af regnskabspraksis (2007-2010), ...................................................... 51
Tabel 4.7, Udvikling i Vestas FCF (2007-2010), ............................................... 52
Tabel 4.8, Vestas soliditetsgrad i % (2006-2010), ............................................ 52
Tabel 4.9, Vestas soliditet (2007-2010), ........................................................... 53
Tabel 4.10, Vestas kreditvurdering udfra EBITA/interest-ratio (2007-2010), 53
Tabel 4.11, Vestas’ likviditetsratio (2006-2010), .............................................. 54
Tabel 4.12, Afkast fra 10-årige, tyske statsobligationer (2006-2010), .............. 56
Tabel 4.13, Vestas’ estimerede beta i forhold til forskellige dataperioder og
indekser i EUR, ................................................................................................. 58
Tabel 4.14, Vestas’ estimerede beta i forhold til forskellige dataperioder og
indekser ved brug af Bloomberg-terminalen i EUR, ......................................... 58
Tabel 4.15, Vestas’ betaværdier fra Eviews regressionsmodel (2006-2010 samt
fremtid), ............................................................................................................ 59
Tabel 4.16, Gennemsnit af Vestas’ historiske industribeta (2006-2011), ........ 60
Tabel 4.17, Vestas egenkapitalsomkostninger i % (2006-2010 samt fremtid), 60
Tabel 4.18, Vestas fremmedskapitalomkostninger i % (2006-2010 samt
fremtid), ............................................................................................................ 61
Tabel 4.19, Værdien af leasede aktiver udregnet ved multiple på 8x (2006-
2010), ................................................................................................................ 62
Tabel 4.20, Vestas leasing renteomkostninger, renter i mio. euro (2006-2010),
............................................................................................................................ 63
Tabel 4.21, Udregning af WACC, justeret for leasing, ....................................... 63
Tabel 5.1, Top-down fremgangsmåde til estimering af Vestas forventede
omsætning i årene 2011 til 2015 (skal den hedde det?), ................................... 69
Tabel 5.2, Følsomhedsanalyse, ......................................................................... 75
Tabel 5.3, P/E output af peer-gruppe med harmonisk gennemsnit, ................ 76
Tabel 5.4, EV/EBITDA output fra peer-gruppe med harmonisk gennemsnit, . 76
Tabel 5.5, EV/EBIT output for peer-gruppe med harmonisk gennemsnit, ...... 77
Tabel 5.6, Aktiepris ud fra harmonisk gennemsnit af ratioer excl. Vestas, ...... 77
Figuroversigt
Figur 1.1, Struktur i værdiansættelsen, ............................................................... 3
Figur 2.1, Tidslinje, .............................................................................................. 6
Figur 2.2, Værdisystem, ...................................................................................... 7
Figur 2.3, Ledelsessystem, ..................................................................................8
Figur 2.4, Figurer over top-10 producenters markedsstyrke og position (2008-
2010), ................................................................................................................ 13
Figur 2.5, Markedsandele i % af det totale marked (2010), .............................. 14
Figur 3.1, Porters Five Forces, .......................................................................... 20
Figur 3.2, McKinsey's 7-S model (bilag), ..........................................................9 6
Figur 3.3, Medarbejderprocessen (bilag), ....................................................... 100
Figur 4.1, Væksts indflydelse på værdien, ......................................................... 39