Vote Count Verification

225 Pages·2011·1.43 MB·English

by  Eric Bjornlund

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VOTE COUNT VERIFICATION

A USER’S GUIDE FOR FUNDERS,
IMPLEMENTERS, AND STAKEHOLDERS

Eric Bjornlund
Glenn Cowan

Democracy International, Inc.

Prepared for:

VOTE COUNT VERIFICATION

A USER’S GUIDE FOR FUNDERS,
IMPLEMENTERS, AND STAKEHOLDERS

Eric Bjornlund
Glenn Cowan

Democracy International, Inc.

Prepared for:
© 2011 by Democracy International, Inc.
All rights reserved

Democracy International, Inc.
4802 Montgomery Lane
Bethesda MD, 20814
+1.301-961-1660
www.democracyinternational.com

This publication was made possible through the
support of the U.S. Agency for International Devel-
opment (USAID). The opinions expressed herein
are those of the authors and do not necessarily re-
flect the views of USAID.
DEMOCRACY INTERNATIONAL
Democracy International, Inc. (DI) provides
technical assistance and analytical services and im-
plements democracy and governance programs
worldwide for the U.S. Agency for International
Development (USAID) and other development
partners (www.democracyinternational.com). DI
offers substantive expertise across the full range of
democracy and governance programming, including
(1) elections and political processes (election man-
agement and administration, voter education, inter-
national and domestic election monitoring, political
party development); (2) governance (local govern-
ment and decentralization, legislative and institu-
tional strengthening); (3) the rule of law (constitu-
tional and legal reform, justice-sector reform, court
administration, legal profession, anticorruption,
human rights); and (4) civil society development
and advocacy. The firm also offers recognized tech-
nical expertise in analytical services, including sur-
vey research, assessments, evaluations, project de-
signs, and democracy assistance studies, as well as
with strategic communications.
Since its founding in 2003, Democracy Interna-
tional has worked in more than 40 countries and in
all regions of the world. In the past 25 years, DI‟s
principals have advised and worked with election
management bodies, civil society and election-
monitoring organizations, political parties, legisla-
tures, government agencies, and others in more than
70 countries.

CONTENTS
CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW OF VOTE COUNT
VERIFICATION AND PURPOSE OF STUDY .... 1
CHAPTER 2: PARALLEL VOTE
TABULATIONS ..................................................... 23
CHAPTER 3. LIMITATIONS OF EXIT POLLS
AND OTHER TYPES OF PUBLIC OPINION
RESEARCH ............................................................ 45
CHAPTER 4: POST-ELECTION STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS AND ELECTION FORENSICS ...... 89
CHAPTER 5: MANAGING VOTE COUNT
VERIFICATION .................................................. 127
CHAPTER 6: NEW CHALLENGES FOR VOTE
COUNT VERIFICATION ................................... 163
ENDNOTES .......................................................... 163
AUTHORS............................................................. 209

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Since the mid-1980s, we have been working on
developing and assessing vote count verification
methods in an effort to improve the integrity of
elections around the world and to improve the pro-
fessionalism of international and domestic election
observation. With the same objectives in mind, we
undertook this study to address continuing chal-
lenges to those who fund, support, implement, and
rely on vote count verification.
Democracy International has been working on
this project for some time. In March 2007, working
with The Carter Center, DI convened a roundtable
of experts on vote count verification in Washington,
DC. Participants came from USAID, the UN Elec-
toral Assistance Division, the UNDP, International
Institute IDEA, the European Union, the Electoral
Institute for the Sustainability of Democracy in Af-
rica, the Canadian International Development
Agency, the OAS, California Institute of Technolo-
gy, Cornell University, Johns Hopkins University,
Yale University, Freedom House, NDI, The Asia
Foundation, RTI International, and CSIS. The
presentations and discussion at the roundtable con-
tributed to our effort to synthesize recommendations
for donors, policymakers, and implementers regard-
ing VCV strategies and techniques in transitional
and postconflict elections and are reflected in this
study. We thank all of those who participated.