Vote Buying in Indonesia: The Mechanics of Electoral Bribery

322 Pages·2019·3.697 MB·English

by  Burhanuddin Muhtadi

Vote Buying in
Indonesia
The Mechanics of
Electoral Bribery
Burhanuddin Muhtadi
Vote Buying in Indonesia
Burhanuddin Muhtadi
Vote Buying in
Indonesia
The Mechanics of Electoral Bribery
Burhanuddin Muhtadi
Faculty of Social and Political Sciences
Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University (UIN)
Jakarta, Indonesia
ISBN 978-981-13-6778-6 ISBN 978-981-13-6779-3 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-6779-3
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A
cknowledgements
This book is based on a revised version of my dissertation at the Australian
National University (ANU). Therefore, I am particularly grateful to my
dissertation chair, Prof. Edward Aspinall who played a significant role in
the evolution of this project. My special thanks and deepest appreciation
also go to Prof. Marcus Mietzner, Prof. Allen Hicken, Prof. William
Liddle, and Dr. Ward Berenschot, who each read the entire manuscript
and provided insightful comments and useful criticism.
This book could never have been completed without the help and con-
tribution of many people and institutions. First and foremost are my home
survey institutes, The Indonesian Survey Institute and Indonesian Political
Indicator. My polling organisations not only provided an additional bud-
getary support to cover the costs of my post-election survey of voters, they
also allowed me to insert several questions into a series of nationwide
surveys before the 2014 elections.
This project was also enriched by the massive number of electoral dis-
trict surveys conducted by the Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting
(SMRC). Therefore, I would like to express my gratitude to my senior
colleague, Prof. Saiful Mujani for introducing me to the tradition of
empirical and statistically orientated social science research. I have learned
much of what I know about quantitative methods from my bright col-
league, Deni Irvani, and I have greatly benefited from discussions with
him about experimental design and on how to interpret my results. Of
course, I also extend my heartfelt appreciation to all of my interviewees
who generously gave of their time in interviews and often lengthy discus-
sions about their political strategies, opinions, and practices.
v
vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Finally, I must extend my deepest thanks to my beloved wife, Rahmawati
Madanih, and children, Rayhan Adnan Musthafa, Avicenna Ananda
Musthafa, and Alexa Shakira Musthafa for their support in completing this
project. This book required very costly methods, including the financing
of unique, innovative surveys of brokers and politicians. When I was
unable to get grants to fully cover all these activities, my wife didn’t object
to spending our own money. I am also indebted to my parents, H. Muhtadi
and the late Hj. Siti Mas’udah. Without their unfailing encouragement
and support, I wouldn’t have been able to finish this project.
As is the rule in academic writing, I bear sole responsibility for any
errors and inconsistencies in this book.
c
ontents
1 Introduction 1
2 The Prevalence of Vote Buying in Indonesia: Building an
Index 45
3 The Determinants of Vote Buying: The Profile of Typical
Vote ‘Sellers’ 81
4 Do Candidates Target Loyalists or Swing Voters? Beyond
the Core- Versus Swing- Voter Debate 109
5 How Targeting Goes Astray: Explaining the Gap Between
Intentions and Outcomes 133
6 Vote Brokerage, Personal Networks, and Agency Loss 171
7 D oes Vote Buying Affect Voting Behaviour? Chasing
Winning Margins and the Prisoner’s Dilemma 209
8 C onclusion 243
vii
viii CONTENTS
Appendix A: Indonesian Voter Surveys 267
Appendix B: Survey of Brokers and Candidates 277
Appendix C: Correlation Between Variables (Pearson’s r) 287
Appendix D: Normality Test of the Linear Regression Analysis
of the Determinants of Vote Buying 291
Appendix E: Logistic Regression Analysis of the Determinants
of Vote Buying 293
Appendix F: Multivariate Analyses of the Determinants of
Winning and Losing Incumbents 295
Bibliography 297
Index 311
l f
ist of igures
Fig. 1.1 Trend of party membership in Indonesia, 2004–2014 (%).
Sources: A series of surveys from April 2004 to September 2012
belong to LSI; while surveys in December 2013, August 2014,
and October 2014 owned by Saiful Mujani Research and
Consulting (SMRC); Surveys in January 2014, February 2014,
April 2014, May 2014, and June 2014 by Indikator 21
Fig. 1.2 Province selection for MP and broker surveys. Source: Indikator
and SMRC’s pre-legislative election surveys in 73 electoral
districts during the run-up to the 2014 legislative election 33
Fig. 2.1 Increasing rates of being targeted for vote buying, 2009–2014
(%). Source: The April 2009 data was drawn from LSI’s survey,
the December 2013 data was taken from SMRC’s survey, and
the April 2014 numbers were drawn from my post-election
survey 51
Fig. 2.2 Individual and neighbourhood vote buying in 2014 (%). Source:
My post-election survey, 22–26 April 2014 51
Fig. 2.3 Vote-buying offers at the national and local executive elections
(%). Source: My post-election survey, 22–26 April 2014 56
Fig. 4.1 Distribution of partisanship across political parties (%). Source:
My post-election survey, 22–26 April 2014 111
Fig. 4.2 Party identification and vote buying approaching the 2014
election (%). Source: The January, February–March, and late
March 2014 data were taken from my pre-election surveys, while
the April 2014 numbers were drawn from my post- election
survey (see Appendix A) 114
ix
x LIST OF FIGURES
Fig. 4.3 Party base is the preferred target (%) (All sample here represents
a combination of local MPs and brokers. However, as indicated
earlier, the proportion of brokers surveyed is much larger than
the proportion of local politicians interviewed. See Appendix B.).
The survey question used is: “During the last 2014 legislative
election, how did you distribute largesse in order to get votes?”
Source: My survey of low-level politicians and brokers, 30
September–25 October 2014 119
Fig. 4.4 Party base receives more resources (%). Source: My survey of
low-level politicians and brokers, 30 September–25 October
2014 120
Fig. 4.5 Why do success team members target loyalists (left panel) or
uncommitted voters (right panel)? (%). Source: My survey of
low-level politicians and brokers, 30 September–25 October
2014 121
Fig. 4.6 Gift receipt by partisan effect: Direct vote buying (%). Source:
My post- election survey, 22–26 April 2014 128
Fig. 4.7 Gift receipt by partisan effect: Neighbourhood vote buying (%).
Source: My post-election survey, 22–26 April 2014 129
Fig. 5.1 Proportion of voters stating they felt close to a party, Indonesia,
1999–2015 (%). Sources: May–July 1999: University of
Indonesia and Ohio State University; October 2002: Centre for
the Study of Islam and Society (PPIM); A series of surveys from
November 2003 to March 2013 and one survey in January 2015
belong to the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI); October 2013,
December 2013, End March 2014, Early June 2014, October
2015 and December 2015: Saiful Mujani Research and
Consulting (SMRC); Early and End of January 2014, February–
March 2014, Early March 2014, April 2014, May 2014, End
June 2014: Indikator Politik Indonesia 140
Fig. 5.2 Political actors’ perceptions of the frequency of loyal voters (%).
The question used is “In your region, out of ten typical voters
how many people would who always vote in every election and
would always vote for the party/candidate you support?” Source:
My survey of low-level politicians and brokers, 30 September–25
October 2014 147
Fig. 5.3 Loyalists who would change their vote if they stopped receiving
assistance (%). Source: My survey of low-level politicians and
brokers, 30 September–25 October 2014 161
Fig. 5.4 Payments as a binding transaction or gift? Source: My survey of
brokers, 30 September–25 October 2014 163