Table Of Content

Volatile States in International Politics Volatile States in International Politics ELEONORA MATTIACCI Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and certain other countries. Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America. © Oxford University Press 2023 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by license, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reproduction rights organization. Inquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above. You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer. Library of Congress Control Number: 2022913247 ISBN 978–0 – 19– 763868–2 (pbk.) ISBN 978–0 – 19–7 63867– 5 (hbk.) DOI: 10.1093/o so/ 9780197638675.001.0001 1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2 Paperback printed by Integrated Books International, United States of America Hardback printed by Bridgeport National Bindery, Inc., United States of America Omnia mutantur, nihil interit. Everything changes, nothing perishes. Ovid, Metamorphoses, Book XV, line 165 Contents Acknowledgments ix List of Abbreviations xiii 1. I ntroduction 1 The Puzzle 3 Making Sense of States’ Behaviors 5 Volatility vs. Other Forms of Change in States’ Behaviors 7 Why Volatility Matters 11 Two Ways to (Wrongly) Dismiss Volatility 14 The Argument in Brief 16 The Goals of This Book 18 Research Design 20 Book Outline 21 2. Theory: When Does Volatility Increase? 24 Step One: Relative Power 25 Step Two: Interest Heterogeneity 29 Step Three: The Interaction 36 Alternative Explanations 40 Conclusions 46 3. Measuring Volatility 49 Capturing Cooperation and Conflict 50 Capturing Dynamics 53 Isolating Volatility 54 Measuring Volatility: A Two-S tep Procedure 56 Summarizing Volatility 58 The Measure in Practice 59 A Multipronged Approach to Measuring Volatility 66 Conclusions 69 4. Volatility and Rivals 71 Statistical Analysis Design 72 Measuring Relative Power Superiority 77 Measuring Heterogeneous Domestic Interests 78 Alternative Explanations 80 Results and Discussion 81 Conclusions 88 viii Contents 5. Volatility and Allies 91 France in 1954 93 France’s Relative Power 96 France’s Domestic Interests 98 Theoretical Predictions 100 Retracing Volatile French Behavior 101 Interests and Power Produce Volatility 111 Alternative Explanations 113 France Exits NATO: 1966 118 Conclusions 119 6. Conclusions 122 A New Perspective 124 What Can Volatility Tell Us? 125 Broader Implications for Research 129 Taking Volatility Seriously 134 Moving Forward 139 Appendix 141 A Note on Scaling 141 Measuring the Dependent Variable Using the Box- Jenkins Procedure 142 Summarizing Volatility 146 Monthly Data 148 Notes 151 Bibliography 187 Index 211 Acknowledgments This book is the product of many conversations over the course of more than a decade. I am thrilled to have a chance to thank all those people who have helped me along the way. This project started as a dissertation at The Ohio State University. There, as a student, I had the pleasure to work with a great group of scholars: Janet Box- Steffensmeier, Ted Hopf, Luke Keele, and Irfan Nooruddin. Each of them provided important inspiration for the project and were extremely generous with their time. I will strive to pay forward what I cannot possibly pay back. Bear Braumoeller has been the best dissertation advisor I could hope for. Reading his work or discussing International Relations with him feels like taking a peek into a kaleidoscope: brand new puzzles and capti- vating perspectives emerge anew. He always makes things sound worthy of exploring further, inspiring his students to push forward with their research. The fundamental idea behind this book owes a lot to our conversations. At Ohio State, I found a fun and engaged community of students who looked at the field of International Relations from different perspectives and was not afraid to argue about it. It was a pleasure to bounce back and forth ideas in various workshops on the material that would then become this book. My biggest thanks go to Bentley Allan, Zoltán Búzás, Austin Carson, Aldous Cheung, Eunbin Chun, Kevin Duska Jr., Matt Hitt, Fernando Nunez- Mietz, Srdjan Vucetic, and Joshua Wu. My senior colleagues in the Political Science Department at Amherst College have been crucial in both providing me with time to write this book and instilling in me the desire to do so. I am very grateful to Amrita Basu, Kristin Bumiller, Javier Corrales, Tom Dumm, Pavel Machala, and Austin Sarat for all their support. My junior colleagues Kerry Ratigan and Ruxandra Paul have provided me with great peer support, commenting on different parts of the manuscript. Theresa and Steve Laizer have helped immensely with the book conference, among other things. Provost and Dean of Faculty Catherine Epstein and Associate Provosts Janet Tobin and Jack Cheney have been extremely helpful with the logistics and monetary aspects associated with my research for this book.