Table Of Content

violent victors prince ton studies in international history and politics Tanisha M. Fazal, G. John Ikenberry, William C. Wohlforth, and Keren Yarhi- Milo, Series Editors For a full list of titles in the series, go to https://press.princeton.edu/series / princeton -studies-in-international-history-and-politics Violent Victors: Why Bloodstained Parties Win Postwar Elections, Sarah Zukerman Daly An Unwritten F uture: Realism and Uncertainty in World Politics, Jonathan Kirshner Undesirable Immigrants: Why Racism Persists in International Migration, Andrew S. Rosenberg Human Rights for Pragmatists: Social Power in Modern Times, Jack Snyder Seeking the Bomb: Strategies of Nuclear Proliferation, Vipin Narang The Spectre of War: International Communism and the Origins of World War II, Jonathan Haslam Active Defense: China’s Military Strategy since 1949, M. Taylor Fravel Strategic Instincts: The Adaptive Advantages of Cognitive Biases in International Politics, Dominic D. P. Johnson Divided Armies: In equality and Battlefield Per for mance in Modern War, Jason Lyall After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order after Major Wars, New Edition, G. John Ikenberry Cult of the Irrelevant: The Waning Influence of Social Science on National Security, Michael C. Desch Secret Wars: Covert Conflict in International Politics, Austin Carson Who Fights for Reputation: The Psy chol ogy of Leaders in International Conflict, Keren Yarhi- Milo Aftershocks: Great Powers and Domestic Reforms in the Twentieth Century, Seva Gunitsky Why Wilson Matters: The Origin of American Liberal Internationalism and Its Crisis Today, Tony Smith Powerplay: The Origins of the American Alliance System in Asia, Victor D. Cha Economic Interdependence and War, Dale C. Copeland Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations, Keren Yarhi- Milo Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era: Regional Powers and International Conflict, Vipin Narang Violent Victors why bloodstained parties win postwar elections sar ah zukerman daly prince ton university press princet on & oxford Copyright © 2022 by Prince ton University Press Prince ton University Press is committed to the protection of copyright and the intellectual property our authors entrust to us. Copyright promotes the pro gress and integrity of knowledge. Thank you for supporting free speech and the global exchange of ideas by purchasing an authorized edition of this book. If you wish to reproduce or distribute any part of it in any form, please obtain permission. Requests for permission to reproduce material from this work should be sent to permissions@press . princeton . edu Published by Prince ton University Press 41 William Street, Prince ton, New Jersey 08540 99 Banbury Road, Oxford OX2 6JX press . princeton . edu All Rights Reserved ISBN: 978-0-691-23132-7 ISBN (pbk.): 978-0-691-23133-4 ISBN (e- book): 978-0-691-23134-1 British Library Cataloging- in- Publication Data is available Editorial: Bridget Flannery- McCoy and Alena Chekanov Production Editorial: Jenny Wolkowicki Cover design: Katie Osborne Production: Lauren Reese Publicity: Kate Hensley and Charlotte Coyne Copyeditor: Joseph Dahm This book has been composed in Arno Pro Printed on acid- free paper. ∞ Printed in the United States of Amer i ca 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 To Weston, Sebastian, Alice, and Louise contents Illustrations ix Acknowl edgments xiii Abbreviations xvii 1 Introduction 1 2 Po liti cal Stage, Actors, and Audience 15 3 Violent- Victors Theory of Po liti cal Be hav ior after War 25 4 Postwar Voters and Survey Experiments 63 5 Military Draw in El Salvador 110 6 Government Victory in Guatemala 158 7 Rebel Victory in Nicaragua 194 8 Po liti cal Life after War Globally, 1970–2015 210 9 Implications for Postwar Peace, Justice, Democracy, and Governance 240 10 Conclusion 253 Appendix 263 Notes 277 References 331 Index 369 vii illustrations Figures 2.1. A Continuum of War Outcomes 23 3.1. Claim to the Security Issue: A Gulliver among the Lilliputians 35 4.1. Government Belligerent Party Strategies: Experimental Design 79 4.2. Rebel Belligerent Party Strategies: Experimental Design 80 4.3. Combat Boots: Army versus Rebel 81 4.4. Effect of Government Belligerent Party Strategies on Probability of Being Deemed More Competent on Prospective Security 83 4.5. Probability of Being Preferred on Security for Selected Government Belligerent Candidate Profiles 85 4.6. Effect of Government Belligerent Party Strategies on Probability of Receiving Credit for War Termination 86 4.7. Probability of Being Elected for Selected Government Belligerent Candidate Profiles 87 4.8. Probability of Being Elected for Selected Rebel Belligerent Candidate Profiles 87 5.1. Campaign Ad: ARENA Saving El Salvador from Communism 125 5.2. Campaign Ad: ARENA’s Hand Alone, Signing the Peace Accords 126 5.3. ARENA Campaign Plan: Targeting of Undecided Voters 129 5.4. ARENA: Potential “Restrained Sovereign” Presidential Slogans 130 5.5. “We Will Fight Crime Since We Have the Experience” 133 ix