Vegetation, Water, Humans and the Climate: A New Perspective on an Interactive System PDF
Preview Vegetation, Water, Humans and the Climate: A New Perspective on an Interactive System
Global Change - The IGBP Series Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidclberg Gmbll Kabat . Claussen . Dirmeyer . Gash . de Guenni . Meybeck Pielke Sr. . Vorosmarty . Hutjes . Liitkemeier (Eds.) Vegetation, Water, Humans and the Climate A New Perspective on an Interactive System With 246 Figures , Springer Editors Pavel Kabat Michel Meybeck Wageningen University and Research Centre Universite de Paris 6/SYSYPHE, Laboratoire de Geologie Appliquee ALTERRA Green World Research 4 place Jussieu, F-75252 Paris, France Droevendaalsesteeg 3, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Roger A. Pielke Sr. Martin Claussen Department of Atmospheric Sciences Potsdam-Institut fiir Klimafolgenforschung Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO 80523, USA Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Charles J. Vorosmarty Paul A. Dirmeyer University of New Hampshire, Institute for the Study of Earth Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies Oceans & Space (EOS) 4041 Powder Mill Road, Suite 302, Calverton MD 20705-3106, USA Complex Systems Research Center, Water Systems Analysis Group E-mail: [email protected] Morse Hali, 39 College Road, Durham NH 03824-3525, USA E-mail: charles. [email protected] John H. C. Gash Ronald W. A. Hutjes Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Maclean Building, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Oxfordshire OXIO 8BB, United Kingdom ALTERRA Green World Research E-mail: [email protected] Droevendaalsesteeg 3, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands E-mail: [email protected] Lelys Bravo de Guenni Sabine Liitkemeier Universidad Sim6n Bolivar Departamento de C6mputo Cientifico y Estadistica Potsdam-Institut fiir Klimafolgenforschung P.O. Box 89.000, Caracas 1080-A, Venezuela Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Cover design: Figures from left to right: Well in the Sahet West Africa: courtesy ofJohn H. C. Gash ©, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom. Model c/oud: adapted from Pielke RA, Lee TJ, Copeland JH, Eastman JL, Ziegler CL, FinIey CA (1997) Use of USGS-provided data to improve weather and climat e simulations. EcolApplications 7:3-21. © printed bypermission ofEcological Societyof America and the authors.Amazon near Manaus: © Antonio D. Nobre, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amaz(mia, Manaus, Brazii. Elbe flood: JeBnitz (near Bitterfeld) on the river Mulde on 15 August 2002 © M. Zebisch, Technische Universitlit BerlinlPotsdam -Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung e. v., Germany. ISSN 1619-2435 ISBN 978-3-642-62373-8 ISBN 978-3-642-18948-7 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-18948-7 Library of Congress Control Number: 2004102329 Bibliographic information published by Die Deutsche Bibliothek Die Deutsche Bibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie; detailed bibliographic data is available in the Internet at http://dnb.ddb.de This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, re citation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer-Verlag. Violations are liable for prosecution under the German Copyright Law. http://www.springer.de © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2004 Originally published by Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York in 2004 Softcover reprint of the hardcover lSt edition 2004 The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant pro tective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Cover Design: Erich Kirclmer, Heidelberg Dataconversion: Biiro Stasch ([email protected]), Klaus Hăringer . Bayreuth Printed on acid-free paper - 32/3141flt - 5 43 2 1 o Preface This bookis the result ofan initiativebythe BiosphericAspects ofthe Hydrological Cycle (BAHC),a Core Project ofthe International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP). It reports on the more than a decade-long research andfindings ofa large numberofscientistsstudyingthe Earthsystemin termsofthe connectionbetween theterrestrialbiosphere,thehydrologiccycleandthepotentialanthropogenicinflu ences. The authors contributing to the five parts ofthe book have highlighted the researchandfindingsofhundredsofscientistswhohaveworkedoverthepast15years onthe interfacebetweenthehydrologicalcycle,theterrestrialbiosphereandtheat mosphere.Asyoureadthroughthebook,itbecomesclearthatthescientificprogress goeswellbeyondanysingleinternationalprogramme:itisinterdisciplinaryandre flects contributions made towards addressing manyofthe objectives set forth bya numberofprojectsofIGBP,WCRP(WorldClimateResearchProgramme),andIHDP (International Human DimensionsProgramme on GlobalEnvironmentalChange). At the programmatic levelwe often compartmentalise and label research as be longingtoaspecificnamedprogramme,butinrealityandattheresearchers'level,itis all a seamless process that tackles specific and challenging questions related to the highlyinteractiveprocessesofvegetation,waterandhumanswithin the climate sys tem. In their earliestyears, BAHC and GEWEX (the GlobalEnergy and Water Cycle ExperimentofWCRP) recognised the needfor thematicsynergiesandcollaboration betweenthe two research programmes.Bothprogrammeshavesuccessfullycollabo ratedinalargenumberofjointresearch,observationalandmodellingactivitiessince theirinception(BAHCin1990andGEWEXin1988).TheInternationalSatelliteLand Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP), a GEWEX project, is perhaps one ofthe best examplesofanexcellentcollaborationbetweenthetwoprogrammes.BAHCandISLSCP haveoperated"backtoback"sincethe Tucsonaggregation workshop in1994(Kabat andSellers1997)1.ISLSCPisaleadingprojectinproducingandconsolidatingglobal datasetsforglobalchangestudies.BAHCandISLSCPjointlyinitiatedandcoordinated an arrayofland-surface/atmosphere experiments,known as HAPEX and FIFE (for exampleHydrologicalandAtmosphericPilotExperimentintheSahelandFirstISLSCP FieldExperiment,respectively).Bothprogrammesjointlytookthe first stepsto initi ate the largest and most integrativeEarth system experiment so far: the LargeScale BiosphereAtmosphereExperimentinAmazonia (LBA).Itisgratifyingtoseesomeof theresearchandfindings resultingfromthesejointactivitiespresentedinthisbook. While we are both extremelypleasedwith the research progress reported in this volume,weareevenmoreexcitedaboutthefuture resultsoftheplannedjointactivi ties associated with the recentlylaunched GEWEX Phase II and the new project in IGBPontheland-atmosphereinterface,ILEAPS(IntegratedLandEcosystem- Atmos phere Processes Study)2,to which the BAHCcommunitywillbea majorcontributor. For example,both the Coordinated Enhanced ObservingPeriod (CEOP) ofGEWEX, 1KabatP,SellersPJ(1997)Specialissue:Aggregatedescriptionofland-atmosphere interactions,fore word.JHydroI190/3-4:173-175. 2http://www.atm.helsinki.fi/ILEAPS/ VI Preface and the FLUXNET project ofworld-wide CO flux measurement initiatedbyBAHC 2 arepositionedattheforefrontoftheEarthsystemmeasurementandmonitoringap proaches.Byfocusingonaseriesofreferencefieldsitesdistributedoverallcontinents (CEOP),on"transectstudies"(FLUXNET),and on simultaneous use ofsatellite and groundobservation,theseexperimentswillprovideadatasetofunprecedentedcom pletenessandqualityforourscientiststoworkwith. The GlobalLand-AtmosphereSystem Study (GLASS) and the GlobalSoil Wetness Project (GSWP) are otherexamplesofsuccessful collaborative activitybetweenthe two programmes in modellingland-surface/atmosphereprocesses and interactions within the climate system (e.g. Feddes et al. 2001)3.These projects are promising a newgenerationofland-surfaceschemesfor Earthsystemmodels.Thenewschemes willevolveintointeractiveschemesthatincreasinglyincorporatemorehydrological, atmospheric,biogeochemical andecologicalinformation. Finally,whileBAHCandGEWEXplacemuchoftheiremphasisonthephysicaland biosphericaspectsofwater,theyhavealsobeenverymuchinterestedinthepotential impactofthe alteration ofthe globalhydrologicalcycleon regionalwater resources andecosystems.However,despitethereportedscenarioandcasestudies (seePartD andE)andtheproposednewapproachforvulnerabilityassessments(PartE),atpresent, specificregionaleffectscontinuetobeuncertain.Thisremaininguncertaintyisoneof thefactors thathas thus far hinderedtheeffectiveapplicationofGEWEXandBAHC research results to operational hydrology and water management strategies. Better linkstoapplicationsinwaterresourcesisthereforeoneofthemainprioritiesofPhaseII ofGEWEX and ofthe new joint project GWSP (Global Water Systems Project),co sponsored by IGBP, WCRP, IHDP and DIVERSITAS (International Programme of BiodiversityScience).Weremainoptimisticthatwithinthisdecademuchprogressin thisareawillbemadeanditwillbethesubjectofafuturepublication. Soroosh Sorooshian PavelKabat Chair, ChairandCo-Chair, GEWEX-Scientific SteeringGroup BAHCandILEAPSScienceSteeringCommittees 3FeddesRA,HoffH,BruenM,DawsonTE,deRosnayP,DirmeyerP,JacksonRB, KabatP,KleidonA, LillyA,PitmanAJ (2001) Modellingrootwateruptakeinhydrologicalandclimatemodels.Bull AmerMeteorSoc82:2797-2809. Acknowledgements Theeditorsemphasisethatthe results reportedherearebasedonthe researchwork ofmanyindividual scientists and research teams around the world who have been associated in some waywith the objectives ofthe IGBP-BAHC andWCRP-GEWEX researchprogrammes.Synthesisingtheseresultswasonlyachievedthroughthecom mitment,andwork,oftenvoluntary,ofthesescientists,andtheirstaffandstudents. We especially acknowledge the help ofall those involved in developing databases, convening/hostingworkshops and editing drafts,and all those who participatedin thelivelydiscussionswhichmadetheworksoenjoyableandworthwhile. WearegratefultotheGermanFederalMinistryofEducationandResearch(BMBF) for funding the BAHC Project Office at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research(PIK)towhomthanksarealsodue.TheDutchNationalResearchProgramme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change (grant 959291) provided support for partoftheScienceSynthesisprocess.Additionalfundingandsupporthavebeenpro vided through the following institutions and agencies: the IGBP Central Office in Stockholm,TheNetherlandsMinistryofAgriculture,NatureManagementandFish eries,The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO),and the WCRP InternationalGEWEXProjectOffice,SilverSpring,USA. In particular we would like to thank Will Steffen for his continuous encourage mentandsupportduringthe entireSynthesisprocess;Hans-JiirgenBolleasthefirst BAHCChair;PiersSellerswho as theformer ChairofISLSCPhelpedforge the con nectionsbetweenBAHCandGEWEX;thelateMikeFosberg,formerheadoftheBAHC CoreProjectOffice;andalltheformermembersoftheBAHCScientificSteeringCom mittee.Lastbutnotleastwealsowish to thanktwo colleaguesatthe PotsdamInsti tuteforClimateImpactResearch:DietmarGibitz-Rheinbay,forhelpingwiththetech nical side ofputting togetherabook ofthis size,and Ursula Werner for redrawing manyofthefigures. Contents Introduction 1 PartA DoesLandSurfaceMatterinClimateandWeather? 5 A.l Introduction........................................................................... 7 A.2 TheClimateneartheGround 9 A.2.1 Introduction............................................................................ 9 A.2.2 TheSurfaceEnergyBalance 9 A.2.3 TheSurfaceWaterBalance 14 A.2.4 ObservingtheSurface 16 A.3 TheRegionalClimate 21 A.J.! FundamentalMechanism in Land-Atmosphere Interactions 21 A.3.2 AtmosphericResponsetoHeterogenousLandForcing 22 A.p.l Microscale Impact 22 A.3.2.2 Mesoscale Impact 24 A.3.3 Regional Teleconnections 28 A.3.4 Discussion 31 A.4 TheGlobalClimate 33 A.4.1 Feedbacks,Synergisms,MultipleEquilibriaandTeleconnections 33 A.4.1.1 Feedbacks 33 A-4-1.2 Synergisms 36 A.4.1.3 Multiple Equilibria 37 A.4.1.4 Teleconnections 39 A.4.2 Palaeoclimate 40 A.4.2.1 Feedbacksin theArcticClimateSystem 40 A-4.2.2 TheSahara 42 A.4.2.3 Historical Land-cover Change 44 A-4-3 Sensitivityto DecadalBiogeochemicalFeedbacks 45 A.4.J.! TheLandSurfaceandClimateChange 45 A.4.P Biogeochemical Feedbacks 46 A.4.3.3 Transient Experiments 48 A.4.4 SeasonalVariability 48 A.4.5 ImpactofLandSurfaceonWeather 52 A.4.5.1 BriefLiteratureSurvey 52 A-4-5.2 EuropeanCentrefor Medium-RangeWeather Forecast (ECMWF) Examples 53 A.S TheSahelian Climate 59 A.5.1 Introduction 59 A.5.1.1 Background 59 A.5.1.2 ClimateAnomaliesandClimateChangeintheSahel 60 A.5.1.3 TheComplexProcessesofLand-useChangeintheSahel 62 X Contents A.5.2 ObservationalStudiesofSahelian Land-surface/Atmosphere Interactions 63 A.p.l TheSahelianEnergyBalanceExperiment(SEBEX) 63 A.p.2 TheHydrologicalandAtmosphericPilotExperiment in theSahel(HAPEX-Sahel) 64 A.5.2.3 CouplingTropicalAtmosphereand HydrologicalCycle (CATCH) 65 A.5.2.4 SavannasintheLongTerm(SALT) 65 A.P.5 Satellite Data 66 A.5.3 CoupledModellingofSahelianLand-AtmosphereInteractions 66 A.5.P BriefOverview 66 A.5.P LargeScaleForce-ResponseStudiesoftheSahelian ClimateAnomaly:TheRelativeImportanceofLand-surface ProcessesandSea-surfaceTemperatures 68 A.5.3.3 Mesoscale InteractionsbetweenSahelian Precipitation and Land-surfacePatterns 71 A.5.3A ClimateSystemInteractionsintheSahel 71 A.5.4 Understanding Mechanisms 73 A.5.5 Conclusion 75 A.6 TheAmazonianClimate 79 A.6.I Introduction 79 A.6.2 FutureClimatesinAmazonia 81 A.6.3 ObservationsofLand-surface/Atmosphere Interactions 82 A.6.4 TheGeneralCharacteristicsandVariability ofWaterandEnergyBalancesintheAmazonBasin 85 A.6.4.1 Introduction 85 A.642 Water Balance 86 A.643 EnergyBalance 87 A.6.5 Deforestationand Climate 88 A.7 TheBorealClimate 93 A.7.1 TheBorealEcosystem,BorealClimateandHigh-latitudeClimate ChangeandVariability 93 A.7.U ClimateandBorealVegetation 94 A.7.1.2 EffectsofFireandInsectsonVegetationandLandCover 95 A.7.1.3 High-latitudeClimateChange 96 A.7.1.4 ChangesinSnowExtent,DepthandDuration 96 A.7.2 EnergyDissipationandTransportbytheBorealLandscape..... .... 101 A.7.2.1 EffectofSoilTypeonSurfaceEnergyPartitioning 102 A.7.2.2 EffectofLand-coverTypeonSeasonalVariation in Relative Humidity 103 A.7.2.3 RoleofStomatalControl 103 A.7.2.4 RoleofLatitudinalGradient 104 A.7.2.5 RoleofMoss 106 A.7.2.6 RoleofAlbedoofForests,WetlandsandLakes 106 A.7.2.7 RoleofFire-inducedAtmosphericAerosols 107 A.7.2.8 RoleofSurfaceHydrology 107 A.7.2.9 ScalingEnergyandWaterFluxfromthePlottotheRegion 108 A.7.3 BiosphericCarbonExchange:CarbonDioxideandMethane 109 A.7.3.1 Measurement Methods 109 A.7.P ControllingFactors(aboveandbelowGround) 110 A.7.3.3 GeographicVariationsinCarbonFlux 110 A.7.3.4 SeasonalandInterannualVariationsinCarbonFlux III A.7.3.5 Methane......... ... .. ... ........ ... ... .... 112 Contents XI A.7-J.6 TheEffectofLandscapePatterns,Disturbance andSuccessiononCarbonCycling 112 A.7-4 Sensitivity Experiments 113 A.7.4.1 SnowAlbedoandClimateFeedback.................. 113 A.7-4-2 CarbonSequestrationand Radiative Feedbacks 113 A.7-4.3 EffectsofClimateChangeonLandCover 114 A.7.4.4 Hydrological Feedbacks 114 A.S TheAsian MonsoonClimate.... ... ... . .... ..... 115 A.8.1 Introduction...... ....... 115 A.8.2 Role ofHuman-inducedLarge-scaleLand-use/coverChange ontheWaterCycleandClimateinMonsoonAsia 115 A.8.2.1 AtmosphericWaterCycleoverMonsoonAsia 115 A.8.2.2 Is Monsoon RainfallDecreasing? TheImpactofDeforestationinThailandontheWaterCycle....... 116 A.8.2.3 DoWater-fed Rice PaddyFieldsIncreaseRainfall inMonsoonAsia? 118 A.8.2.4 Conclusions............................................................... 120 A.8.3 CanHuman-inducedLarge-scaleLand-coverChanges Modifythe EastAsianMonsoon? 120 A.8.p HistoryofLand-cover/Land-useChangesoverEastAsia 121 A.8.3.2 DesignoftheNumericalExperiments 121 A.8.3.3 ChangesofSurfaceDynamicParameters underTwoVegetationCoverages...................................... 123 A.8.3.4 ChangesoftheEastAsiaMonsoon byHuman-inducedLand-coverChanges 123 A.8.4 Summary................................................... . ... 127 A.9 Summary,Conclusion and Perspective........................................ 129 References 137 PartB HowMeasurableisthe EarthSystem? 155 B.1 Introduction...... .... .... ... .. ... . . 157 B.I.I TheNeedfor IntegratedExperiments 157 B.I.2 TheExperimentalDesign 157 B.I.3 Guideto PartB 158 B.2 TheEnergyBalanceClosureProblem 159 B.2.1 ExamplesofEnergyBalanceClosureinFieldExperiments 159 B.2.2 Reasonsfor PoorClosure 161 B.2.3 Experiment Design.... ... ... . ... . . .... 163 B.2.4 CalculationandAnalysisErrors 163 B.2.5 OverallAccuracy- WhatCanBeExpected 164 B.2.6 PushingEddyCovariancepastItsLimits. ..... ... ..... . ... 165 B.2.7 Copingwith PoorEnergyBalanceClosureWhenModelling 166 B.2.8 SummaryandConclusions 166 B.3 Radiation Measurementsin IntegratedTerrestrial Experiments......... 167 B.3.1 Introduction.............................................. .... ........... 167 B.3.2 Radiometryin IntegratedTerrestrial Experiments 167 B.3.3 Available Radiometer Designs 169 B.3-4 OverviewofRadiometryintheLastTwoDecades 170 B.3.5 Summary............ ............. .... .... .... . 171
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