Value Functions for Environmental Management

249 Pages·1997·19.328 MB·English

by  Euro Beinat (auth.)

VALUE FUNCTIONS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
Environment & Management
VOLUME 7
Value Functions
for Environmental Management
by
EUROBEINAT
Institute for Environmental Studies,
Free University Amsterdam,
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Springer-Science+Business Media, B.V.
A C.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress
ISBN 978-90-481-4882-0 ISBN 978-94-015-8885-0 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-94-015-8885-0
Printed on acid-free paper
All Rights Reserved
© 1997 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
Originally published by Kluwer Academic Publishers in 1997.
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1997
No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or
utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical,
including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and
retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner.
Table of contents
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .................................................................................. xiii
1. SCOPE AND OUTLINE OF THE STUDy ...................................................... 1
1.1. Prologue .................................................................................................... 1
1.2. Multiobjective decisions ............................................................................. 2
1.2.1. Types of decision. ................................................................................ 2
1.2.2. Examples ............................................................................................ .3
1.3. Decision processes ..................................................................................... 5
1.3.1. A general scheme ................................................................................ 5
1.3.2. Evaluating multiobjective problems ...................................................... 6
1.3.3. Outcome of multi objective methods ..................................................... 7
1.4. Value functions .......................................................................................... 8
1.4. 1. What are value functions? ................................................................... 8
1.5. Environmental decisions and multiobjective decisions ............................... 11
1.5. 1. Characteristics of environmental decisions ......................................... 11
1.5.2. Facts and values ................................................................................ 12
1.5.3. Evaluating decision alternatives ......................................................... 13
1.5.4. Expert judgement .............................................................................. 14
1.6. Objectives and outline of the book. ........................................................... 15
1.6.1. Problem domain ................................................................................ 15
1.6.2. Objectives of the study ...................................................................... 17
1.6.3. Outline of the book. ........................................................................... 18
2. MULTIATTRIBUTE VALUE FUNCTION THEORY .................................. 21
2.1. Introduction ............................................................................................. 21
2.2. The multiobjective setting ......................................................................... 22
2.2.1. Terminology ...................................................................................... 22
2.3. An example of multiattribute value function .............................................. 25
2.4. Value function theory: axiomatic foundation ............................................. 28
2.4. 1. Value functions and measurement theory ........................................... 28
2.4.2. Existence of an ordinal value function ................................................ 28
2.4.3. Existence ofa measurable (cardinal) value function ............................ 31
2.5. Multiattribute value functions ................................................................... 32
2.5. 1. Additive value functions .................................................................... 3 2
2.5.2. Usefulness of the additive representation ........................................... 34
2.5.3. Additive measurable value functions .................................................. 3 6
2.5.4. Additive value functions: canonical form ............................................ 36
2.5.5. Independence tests ............................................................................ 38
2.5.6. Non-additive representations ............................................................. 38
2.6. Some comments on value function models ............................................... .40
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2.6.1. Interpretation of values ..................................................................... .40
2.6.2. Interpretation of weights .................................................................. .42
2.6.3. Normative or prescriptive decision aid? ............................................ .43
2.7. Conclusions .............................................................................................. 44
3. ASSESSMENT TECHNIQUES FOR MULTIATTRIBUTE VALUE
FUNCTIONS ..................................................................................................... 47
3.1. Introduction ............................................................................................. 47
3.2. Assessment classification .......................................................................... 48
3.3. Assessment strategies ............................................................................... 49
3.3.1. Information items .............................................................................. 49
3.3.2. Decomposed scaling .......................................................................... 49
3.3.3. Holistic scaling .................................................................................. 50
3.3.4. A comparison of decomposed and holistic strategies .......................... 50
3.4. Information available for the asse~sment ................................................... 52
3.5. Decomposed scaling: assessment techniques for value functions ............... 54
3.5.1. Techniques for decomposed scaling ................................................... 54
3.5.2. Range selection and shape assessment ............................................... 54
3.5.3. Direct rating ...................................................................................... 55
3.5.4. Curve selection .................................................................................. 56
3.5.5. Bisection ........................................................................................... 57
3.5.6. Difference standard sequence ............................................................. 57
3.5.7. Parameter estimation ......................................................................... 58
35.8. Semantic judgement .......................................................................... 58
3.5.9. Interpolation and consistency checks ................................................. 59
3.6. Decomposed scaling: assessment techniques for weights .......................... 60
3.6.1. Swing technique ................................................................................ 60
3.6.2. Weight rating .................................................................................... 61
3.6.3. Pairwise comparison .......................................................................... 61
3.6.4. Trade-off's ......................................................................................... 61
3.65. Qualitative translation ........................................................................ 62
3.6.6. Weights and ranges ........................................................................... 62
3.7. Holistic scaling: selection of the score profiles .......................................... 63
3.7.1. Design of assessment profiles ............................................................ 63
3.7.2. Full-profile designs ............................................................................ 64
3.7.3. Partial-profile designs ........................................................................ 65
3.8. Holistic scaling: assessment of multiattribute profiles ................................ 66
3.8.1. Profile ranking, profile rating and profile interval rating ..................... 66
3.8.2. Pairwise comparison .......................................................................... 67
3.8.3. Estimation of value functions and weights from holistic judgements ... 67
3.9. Assessment procedures ............................................................................ 68
3.9.1. A classification of assessment procedures .......................................... 68
3.9.2. Standard procedures .......................................................................... 69
3.9.3. Decomposed scaling with partial information ..................................... 69
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3.9.4. Holistic scaling with partial information ............................................. 70
3.9.5. Mixed techniques with partial information ......................................... 72
3.10. A comparative analysis ........................................................................... 73
3.10.1. Comparison of decomposed and holistic approaches ........................ 73
3.10.2. Behavioural aspects ......................................................................... 75
3.11. Conclusions ............................................................................................ 75
4. VALUE FUNCTIONS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT ............ 77
4.1. Introduction ............................................................................................. 77
4.2. Environmental management approaches: an overview ............................... 78
4.2.1. Classification ..................................................................................... 78
4.2.2. Right-based approaches: single-attribute standards ............................ 78
4.2.3. Right-based approaches: multiattribute standards ............................... 81
4.2.4. Utility based approaches: environmental indices ................................. 81
4.2.5. Some comments on standards and indices .......................................... 82
4.3. Information for environmental decisions ................................................... 83
4.3.1. The chain causes-effects .................................................................... 83
4.3.2. Environmental assessment ................................................................. 84
4.3.3. Dose-effect functions ......................................................................... 85
4.4. Choosing attributes for the decision .......................................................... 86
4.4.1. Attributes in environmental decisions ................................................. 86
4.4.2. Pros and cons of proxy attributes ....................................................... 87
4.5. The effects of using proxy attributes ......................................................... 89
4.5.1. Value models with proxy attributes .................................................... 89
4.5.2. Independence and synergy among attribute scores ............................. 90
4.5.3. Interaction among attributes and independence .................................. 92
4.5.4. Marginal value functions for dependent attributes .............................. 93
4.5.5. Additive vs. non-additive representations ........................................... 95
4.5.6. Setting the attribute ranges ................................................................ 96
4.6. Expert-based value functions .................................................................... 98
4.6.1. The role of experts and decision makers in the assessment of value
functions ..................................................................................................... 98
4.6.2. The value function model with proxy and natural attributes ................ 99
4.6.3. Expert-based value functions: the process of delegation ................... 100
4.7. Assessment of expert-based value functions ............................................ I02
4.7.1. Assessment requirements ................................................................. 10 2
4.7.2. Information for decomposed and holistic scaling .............................. l03
4.7.3. Integration of decomposed and holistic strategies ............................ 104
4.7.4. Analysis of available assessment procedures ..................................... l05
4.8. Conclusions ............................................................................................ 106
5. AN INTERACTIVE PROCEDURE FOR ASSESSING VALUE FUNCTIONS
FOR EXPERT JUDGEMENT .......................................................................... 107
5.1. Introduction ........................................................................................... 107
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5.2. A procedure to assess expert-based value functions ................................ l08
5.2.1. Structure of the assessment procedure ............................................. l08
5.3. Preparation for the assessment... ............................................................. 109
5.4. Assessment of marginal value functions .................................................. 109
5.4.1. Notation .......................................................................................... 109
5.4.2. Shape and value regions .................................................................. 110
5.5. Assessment of weights ........................................................................... 111
5.6. Holistic assessment. ................................................................................ 112
5.6.1. Design of holistic profiles ................................................................ 112
5.6.2. Selection of profiles ......................................................................... 113
5.6.3. Assessment of holistic profiles ......................................................... 114
5.7. Computation of the value function model ............................................... 115
5.7. 1. Consistency errors ........................................................................... 115
5.7.2. The Linear Programming (LP) module ............................................. 116
5.7.3. Notes on the formulation ................................................................. 118
5.7.4. The L priority variables ................................................................... 119
5.7.5. Additive models .............................................................................. 120
5.8. Analysis of results .................................................................................. 120
5.9. An assessment example .......................................................................... 121
5.9.1. Initial stages and range selection ...................................................... 121
5.9.2. Value regions assessment ................................................................ 122
5.9.3. Weight assessment. .......................................................................... 123
5.9.4. Holistic assessment .......................................................................... 124
5.9.5. Results and refinements .................................................................. 125
5.10. Conclusions .......................................................................................... 130
6. VALUE FUNCTION MODELS FOR EXPERT PANELS ........................... 133
6.1. Introduction ........................................................................................... 133
6.1.1. Notation .......................................................................................... 134
6.2. Preliminary operations ............................................................................ 134
6.2.1. Panel composition ........................................................................... 134
6.2.2. Panel interaction .............................................................................. 135
6.2.3. Empirical considerations .................................................................. 136
6.3. Mathematical aggregation of individual responses: a short overview ....... 137
6.3.1. Aggregation of preferences .............................................................. 137
6.3.2. Aggregation of expert judgements ................................................... 138
6.3.3. Mathematical methods for panel aggregation ................................... 138
6.4. Aggregation of value function models .................................................... 139
6.4.1. Aggregation rule for measurable value functions .............................. 139
6.4.2. Local and global aggregations ......................................................... 140
6.4.3. Weighting panel members ................................................................ 141
6.5. Analysis of differences and clusters ......................................................... 142
6.5.1. Definition of distance ....................................................................... 142
6.5.2. Distance between numerical vectors ................................................ 143
6.5.3. Distance between priority vectors .................................................... 143
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6.5.4. Distance between functions ............................................................. 144
6.5.5. Distance between value regions ....................................................... 145
6.5.6. Cluster analysis ................................................................................ 146
6.6. Analysis of differences and clusters: an example ..................................... 147
6.6. 1. Analysis of differences in input data ................................................. 147
6.6.2. Analysis of differences in output data ............................................... 151
6.7. Aggregation rules ................................................................................... 153
6.8. Analysis of differences between aggregation rules ................................... 154
6.9. Conclusions ............................................................................................ 156
7. CASE STUDY: EXPERT -BASED VALUE FUNCTION MODELS FOR
CLEANING UP A POLLUTED SITE .............................................................. 159
7.1. Introduction ........................................................................................... 159
7.2. Assessment of polluted sites: the Dutch system. ...................................... 161
7.2.1. The Dutch system ............................................................................ 161
7.2.2. Soil quality standards ....................................................................... 161
7.3. A case study: cleaning up a former industrial site .................................... 162
7.3.1. The case study ................................................................................. 162
7.3.2. Cleaning-up options ......................................................................... 163
7.3 .3. Analysis of objectives and attributes ................................................ 164
7.4. Problem evaluation: standards and toxic-units ........................................ 166
7.4.1. Multifunctionality ............................................................................ 166
7.5. Problem evaluation: value functions ........................................................ 168
7.5. 1. Preliminary operations ..................................................................... 168
7.5.2. The value function model ................................................................ 169
7.6. Assessment of value functions and weights for residual soil
concentrations ........................................................................................ 171
7.6.1. Preparation for the assessment.. ....................................................... 171
7.6.2. The assessment ................................................................................ 172
7.6.3. Results of the assessments ............................................................... 173
7.7. Analysis of panel responses .................................................................... 176
7.7.1. Input data ........................................................................................ 176
7.7.2. Output data ..................................................................................... 177
7.7.3. Aggregation rules ............................................................................ 178
7.8. Evaluation of residual soil concentrations ............................................... 179
7.9. Overall evaluation .................................................................................. 183
7.10. Conclusions .......................................................................................... 185
7.11. Appendix ............................................................................................. 186
8. CASE STUDY: SPATIAL DECISION SUPPORT FOR THE ADMISSION
OF NEW PESTICIDES .................................................................................... 187
8. 1. Introduction ........................................................................................... 187
8.2. Admission of pesticides .......................................................................... 189
8.2.1. Decision makers .............................................................................. 189
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