Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decisionmaking

433 Pages·1996·19.3 MB·English

by  Ralph L. Keeney

VALUE-FOCUSED THINKING

VALUE-FOCUSED
THINKING
A Path to Creative Decisionmaking
Ralph L. Keeney
Harvard University Press
Cambridge, Massachusetts
London, England
Copyright© 1992bythePresidentandFellowsofHarvardCollege
Allrightsreserved
Printedin the UnitedStatesofAmerica
This book has been digitallyreprinted. Thecontentremains
identical to that ofprevious printings.
LibraryofCongre.'iSCataloging-in-PublicationData
Keeney, Ralph L., 1944-
Value-focused thinking/ Ralph L.Keeney.
p. cm.
Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
ISBN0-674-93197-1 (cloth)
ISBN0-674-93198-X (pbk.)
1. Decision-making. 2. Values. I. Title.
HD30.23.K354 1992 91-31496
658.4'03-dc20 CIP
To Howard Raiffa
whose ideas, encouragement, and actions
have guided and inspired me
and so many others

Preface
Many books have been written about decisionmaking. They tell us how
to solve decision problems. They do not tell us how to identify potential
decisionopportunities. Theytellus howtoanalyzealternativestochoose
the best one. They do not tell us how to create alternatives. They tell us
how to evaluate alternatives given some quantitative objective function.
They do not tell us how to articulate the qualitative objectives on which
any appraisal of alternatives must rest. This book is different. It does
what the others do not.
Almost all ofthe literature on decisionmaking concerns what to do
after the crucial activities of identifying the decision problem, creating
alternatives, and specifying objectives. But where do these decision
problems, alternatives, and objectives come from? This book describes
and illustrates the creative processes that you should follow to identify
your decision problems, create alternatives, and articulate your objec
tives. These prescriptions are quite different from the way people typi
cally pursue these activities.
Most people do notlike problems, and since decisions are problems
tomost people, they typicallydo notcreate theirowndecision problems.
Instead, decision problems are usually thrust upon them by others or
by happenstance. Ifyour firm no longer needs your services, you have
a decision problem. If consumers are not purchasing your product as
expected, you have a decision problem. Ifyou are diagnosed as having
a serious illness, you have a decision problem. Ifhurricanes hit a popu
lated area, many decision problems arise.
Once the decision problem is imposed from outside, the so-called
solvingbegins. Typically, the decisionmakerfirst focuses onalternatives,
viii Preface
until either an appropriate set of alternatives or one acceptable one is
found, and only then begins to concentrate on objectives or criteria to
evaluate the alternatives. I refer to this general problem-solving ap
proach as alternative10cused thinking.
Focusing on alternatives is a limited way to think through decision
situations. It is reactive, not proactive. If you wish to be the master of
yourdecisionmaking, it makes sense to have morecontrolover the deci
sion situations you face. You do not control decision situations that you
approach through alternative-focused thinking. This standard mode of
thinking is backward, because it puts the cartofidentifying alternatives
before the horse ofarticulating values.
It is values that are fundamentally important in any decision situa
tion. Alternatives are relevant only because they are means to achieve
your values. Thus your thinking should focus first on values and later
on alternatives that might achieve them. Naturally there should often
beiterationbetweenarticulatingvaluesandcreatingalternatives,butthe
principle is "values first." Such thinking, which I refer to as value10cused
thinking, can significantly improve decisionmaking because the values
guide not only the creation ofbetter alternatives but the identification
ofbetterdecision situations. These betterdecision situations, which you
create for yourself, should be thought of as decision opportunities rather
than as decision problems.
This book shows how you should think about decision situations. It
addresses how tocreatebetteralternatives forany decision problemthat
you face, how to identify decision opportunities more appealing than
the decision problems that confront you, and how to articulate and use
yourfundamental values to guideand integrateallofyourdecisionmak
ing activities. The ideas are relevant to your personal decisions and to
the decision situations offirms, organizations, and governments.
Value-focused thinking addresses the large void between unstruc
tured creative thinkingwithout bounds and very structured approaches
todecision problems. Itisthestructuringofthinkingtoaddressdecision
opportunities and problems in creative ways. In short, it is directed
creativity applied to decisions. The basis for the creativity is the values
appropriate to the decision situation.
The purpose and thought processes of value-focused thinking are
different from those of alternative-focused thinking. Alternative
focused thinking is to solve decision problems. Value-focused thinking
is a way to identify desirable decision situations and then reap the bene
fits ofthese situations by solving them. Therefore, value-focused think-
Preface ix
ing suggests a different paradigm for addressing decisions from the
standard alternative-focused-thinking paradigm. It is different in three
importantways. First,significanteffortisallocatedtoarticulatingvalues.
Second, this articulation of values in decision situations comes before
other activities. Third, the articulated values are explicitly used to iden
tify decision opportunities and to create alternatives. A value-focused
orientation will help you to create better decision situations with better
alternatives, which should lead to better consequences.
Part One of the book presents the conceptual ideas of value-focused
thinking. Numerous examples in Chapter 1demonstrate the usefulness
of the approach. Chapter 2 introduces a framework that relates objec
tives, values, and alternatives. This chapter also discusses how decisions
should be related to one another and outlines the shortcomings of
alternative-focused thinking as a way to think about decisions.
The core of value-focused thinking is thinking about values. Part
Two presents procedures and theoretical background for value-focused
thinking. Chapter 3, about identifying and structuringobjectives, is en
tirelyqualitative and provides thefoundation onwhich further thinking
about values rests. To gain a better understanding of the meaning of
qualitatively stated objectives, it is useful to consider how to measure
the achievement ofobjectives. This measurement is the topic ofChap
ter 4. Chapter 5 is quantitative. It indicates how to build a value model
(that is, an objective function) to integrate the achievement of a set of
objectives. The value model can be used for clarification ofqualitative
values and for quantitative analyses.
Uses ofvalue-focused thinking are detailed in Part Three. Chapter
6describes howto uncoverhiddenobjectivesrelevanttoadecisionsitua
tion. Chapters 7 and 8 present ways to facilitate the creative develop
ment ofalternatives. Chapter 9 has several suggestions for identifying
decision opportunities. Chapter 10 discusses the usefulness of value
focused thinking in guiding information collection, evaluating alterna
tives, interconnecting decisions, improving communication, facilitating
involvement in multiple-stakeholder decisions, and guiding strategic
thinking.
Part Four presents several applications of value-focused thinking.
Chapter 11 stresses different aspects of value-focused thinking in six
decision contexts: options for future NASA missions, the transporting
of nuclear waste, research on climate change, air pollution in Los
Angeles, thedesigningofanintegratedcircuittester, andasmallnegoti-