Using Scenarios: Scenario Planning for Improving Organizations

241 Pages·2022·5.78 MB·English

by  Thomas J. Chermack

U S I N G
S CENARIOS
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A Publication in the Berrett- Koehler
Organ izational Perf orm ance Series
Richard A. Swanson and Barbara L. Swanson, series editors
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U S I N G
SCENARI OS
Scenario Planning for Improving Organ izations
Thomas J. Chermack
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Using Scenarios
Copyright © 2022 by Thomas J. Chermack
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or
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First Edition
Paperback print edition ISBN 978-1-5230-9288-8
PDF e-book ISBN 978-1-5230-9289-5
IDPF e-book ISBN 978-1-5230-9290-1
Digital audio ISBN 978-1-5230-9291-8
2021-1
Book producer: Westchester Publishing Services
Cover designer: Nola Burger
For Isla— The Light of My Life!
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Contents
List of Figures ■ ix
Preface ■ xiii
PART ONE. Exploring the Use of Scenarios
1. What Do You Do with Scenarios? ■ 3
2. Prob lems with the Practice of Strategic Planning and Scenario
Planning ■ 7
3. Methods for Building Scenarios ■ 31
PART TWO. Specific Ways to Use Scenarios
4. Seven Approaches to Using Scenarios ■ 69
5. Connecting Scenarios to Their Original Purposes ■ 76
6. Generating Strategies ■ 86
7. Windtunneling Strategies with Scenarios ■ 103
8. Testing Decisions and Options with Scenarios ■ 114
9. Assessing the Financial Benefits of Scenarios ■ 133
10. Modeling Financials with Scenarios ■ 146
11. Developing Scenario Signals and Critical Uncertainty
Dashboards ■ 159
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viii ■ Contents
PART THREE. Improving Organ izations with Scenarios
12. Making Scenarios a Part of Orga nizational Culture ■ 175
13. Advancing Scenario and Strategic Planning ■ 184
Conclusion ■ 189
Afterword ■ 191
Appendix ■ 197
References ■ 207
Acknowl edgments ■ 216
Index ■ 218
About the Author ■ 222
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Figures
Figure 2.1. SWOT Analy sis ■ 18
Figure 2.2. BCG Matrix ■ 20
Figure 3.1. Pierre Wack’s “Option Generation” ■ 33
Figure 3.2. Wack’s First 2 × 2 Matrix ■ 53
Figure 3.3. Major Oil Exporters ■ 54
Figure 3.4. The Scenario Matrix as a Grid ■ 55
Figure 3.5. The Scenario Matrix as Frames ■ 56
Figure 4.1. Overall Pro cess Flow for Using Scenarios ■ 74
Figure 5.1. Van der Heijden’s Categories of Scenario Purpose ■ 80
Figure 6.1. Scenarios and Generic Strategies Template ■ 88
Figure 6.2. Modified Scenarios and Generic
Strategies Template ■ 88
Figure 6.3. Generic Strategies for Fish and Wildlife Agency ■ 90
Figure 6.4. Scenario Opportunities and Threats Template ■ 92
Figure 6.5. Healthcare Com pany Opportunities and
Threats Example ■ 94
Figure 6.6. Scenario Adapt, Mitigate, and Thrive Template ■ 97
Figure 6.7. Online University’s Adapt, Mitigate,
and Thrive Strategies ■ 98
Figure 7.1. Windtunneling Template ■ 105
Figure 7.2. Generic Strategies for Fish and Wildlife Agency ■ 106
Figure 7.3. Windtunneling Generic Strategies for Fish and Wildlife
Agency ■ 109
Figure 8.1. Generic Risk/Benefit Plotting ■ 115
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