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Using Excel for business analysis : a guide to financial modelling fundamentals PDF

443 Pages·2015·131.4 MB·English
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Using Excel for Business AAnnaallyyssiiss The Wiley Finance series contains books written specifi cally for fi nance and investment professionals as well as sophisticated individual investors and their fi nancial advisors. Book topics range from portfolio management to e-commerce, risk management, fi nancial engineering, valuation and fi nan- cial instrument analysis, as well as much more. For a list of available titles, visit our Web site at www.WileyFinance.com. Founded in 1807, John Wiley & Sons is the oldest independent publish- ing company in the United States. With offi ces in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia, Wiley is globally committed to developing and market- ing print and electronic products and services for our customers’ profes- sional and personal knowledge and understanding. Using Excel for Business AAnnaallyyssiiss A Guide to Financial Modelling Fundamentals Revised Edition DANIELLE STEIN FAIRHURST Cover image: ©Leontura/iStockphoto.com and ©solarseven/iStockphoto.com Cover design: Wiley Copyright © 2015 by John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd. 1 Fusionopolis Walk, #07-01, Solaris South Tower, Singapore 138628 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as expressly permitted by law, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate photocopy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center. Requests for permission should be addressed to the Publisher, John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd., 1 Fusionopolis Walk, #07-01, Solaris South Tower, Singapore 138628, tel: 65-6643-8000, fax: 65-6643-8008, e-mail: [email protected]. Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifi cally disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fi tness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor the author shall be liable for any damages arising herefrom. Other Wiley Editorial Offi ces John Wiley & Sons, 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, USA John Wiley & Sons, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, P019 8SQ, United Kingdom John Wiley& Sons (Canada) Ltd., 5353 Dundas Street West, Suite 400, Toronto, Ontario, M9B 6HB, Canada John Wiley& Sons Australia Ltd., 42 McDougall Street, Milton, Queensland 4064, Australia Wiley-VCH, Boschstrasse 12, D-69469 Weinheim, Germany ISBN 978-1-119-06246-2 (Paperback) ISBN 978-1-119-06245-5 (ePDF) ISBN 978-1-119-06244-8 (ePub) ISBN 978-1-119-07001-6 (o-Book) Typeset in 10/12 pt, Sabon LT Std Roman by Aptara Inc, New Delhi, India Printed in Singapore by C.O.S. Printers Pte Ltd. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 CCoonntteennttss Preface ix CHAPTER 1 What Is Financial Modelling? 1 What’s the Difference between a Spreadsheet and a Financial Model? 4 Types and Purposes of Financial Models 5 Tool Selection 6 What Skills Do You Need to Be a Good Financial Modeller? 17 The Ideal Financial Modeller 24 Summary 28 CHAPTER 2 Building a Model 31 Model Design 31 The Golden Rules for Model Design 33 Design Issues 35 The Workbook Anatomy of a Model 36 Project Planning Your Model 38 Model Layout Flow Charting 41 Steps to Building a Model 41 Information Requests 50 Version-Control Documentation 51 Summary 53 CHAPTER 3 Best Practice Principles of Modelling 55 Document Your Assumptions 55 Linking, Not Hard Coding 56 Enter Data Only Once 57 Avoid Bad Habits 57 v vi CONTENTS Use Consistent Formulas 57 Format and Label Clearly 58 Methods and Tools of Assumptions Documentation 59 Linked Dynamic Text Assumptions Documentation 67 What Makes a Good Model? 70 Summary 72 CHAPTER 4 Financial Modelling Techniques 73 The Problem with Excel 73 Error Avoidance Strategies 75 How Long Should a Formula Be? 81 Linking to External Files 83 Building Error Checks 86 Summary 96 CHAPTER 5 Using Excel in Financial Modelling 97 Formulas and Functions in Excel 97 Excel Versions 101 Handy Excel Shortcuts 103 Basic Excel Functions 109 Logical Functions 112 Nesting: Combining Simple Functions to Create Complex Formulas 115 Cell Referencing Best Practices 119 Named Ranges 122 Summary 126 CHAPTER 6 Functions for Financial Modelling 127 Aggregation Functions 127 LOOKUP Formulas 140 Nesting INDEX and MATCH 153 OFFSET Function 157 Regression Analysis 161 CHOOSE Function 164 Working with Dates 166 Financial Project Evaluation Functions 174 Loan Calculations 180 Summary 186 Contents vii CHAPTER 7 Tools for Model Display 187 Basic Formatting 187 Custom Formatting 187 Conditional Formatting 193 Sparklines 200 Bulletproofi ng Your Model 204 Customising the Display Settings 208 Form Controls 216 Summary 232 CHAPTER 8 Tools for Financial Modelling 233 Hiding Sections of a Model 233 Grouping 238 Array Formulas 240 Goal Seeking 247 Structured Reference Tables 249 PivotTables 251 Macros 262 Summary 272 CHAPTER 9 Common Uses of Tools in Financial Modelling 273 Escalation Methods for Modelling 273 Understanding Nominal and Effective (Real) Rates 278 Calculating Cumulative Totals 283 How to Calculate a Payback Period 284 Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) 288 Building a Tiering Table 293 Modelling Depreciation Methods 296 Break-Even Analysis 307 Summary 313 CHAPTER 10 Model Review 315 Rebuilding an Inherited Model 315 Improving Model Performance 323 Auditing a Financial Model 328 Summary 335 Appendix 10.1: QA Log 336 viii CONTENTS CHAPTER 11 Stress-Testing, Scenarios, and Sensitivity Analysis in Financial Modelling 337 What Are the Differences between Scenario, Sensitivity, and What-If Analyses? 338 Overview of Scenario Analysis Tools and Methods 340 Advanced Conditional Formatting 349 Comparing Scenario Methods 353 Summary 365 CHAPTER 12 Presenting Model Output  367 Preparing an Oral Presentation for Model Results 367 Preparing a Graphic or Written Presentation for Model Results 369 Chart Types 372 Working with Charts 380 Handy Charting Hints 386 Dynamic Named Ranges 388 Charting with Two Different Axes and Chart Types 394 Bubble Charts 400 Creating a Dynamic Chart 402 Waterfall Charts 407 Summary 420 About the Author 421 About the Website 423 Index 425

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