Useless Arithmetic: Why Environmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future

247 Pages·2009·2.58 MB·English

by  Orrin H. Pilkey

useless arithmetic:
why environmental
scientists can’t predict
the future
Orrin H. Pilkey
Linda Pilkey-Jarvis
Columbia University Press
useless arithmetic
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Columbia University Press
Publishers Since 1893
New York Chichester, West Sussex
Copyright © 2007 Columbia University Press
All rights reserved
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Pilkey, Orrin H., 1934–
Useless arithmetic : why environmental scientists can’t predict the future / Orrin H.
Pilkey and Linda Pilkey-Jarvis.
cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0–231–13212–3 (cloth)
1. Environmental protection—Decision making—Mathematics. 2. Environmental
policy—Mathematics. 3. Ecology—Mathematical models. I. Pilkey-Jarvis, Linda. II. Title.
TD171.8.P55 2006
363.7’05—dc22
2006009632
Columbia University Press books are printed on
permanent and durable acid-free paper.
This book was printed on paper with recycled content.
Printed in the United States of America
c 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
To Jim, Sharlene, and Eddie

contents
Preface ix
one Mathematical Fishing 1
two Mathematical Models: Escaping from Reality 22
three Yucca Mountain: A Million Years of Certainty 45
four How Fast the Rising Sea ? 66
five Following a Wayward Rule 92
six Beaches in an Expected Universe 114
seven Giant Cups of Poison 140
eight Invasive Plants: An Environmental Apocalypse 164
nine A Promise Unfulfilled 182
Appendix 205
References 213
Index 223
preface
According to Greek mythology, Zeus once released two eagles in order to
find the center of the earth. One flew east and the other west. The birds
met at Delphi, which lies on the slopes of Mount Parnassus. From about
1400 b.c. to a.d. 381, the Oracle of Delphi held sway at what was the most
important shrine in all of Greece. The oracle could be more accurately
described as a succession of priestesses, each given the title of Pythia.
For twelve centuries the oracle played an influential role in ancient his-
tory and determined the course of empires.
Built around a sacred spring, the shrine to the oracle attracted people
from all over Greece and far beyond, who came to pose their questions
about the future to the Pythia. Her cryptic answers covered everything
from optimal sowing and harvesting times to when an empire should de-
clare war. As she responded to questions, seemingly in a trance, her inar-
ticulate cries were interpreted and written down by an official scribe. In
early times this transcription was rendered in hexameter verse, but later
it was written in prose. The priest Plutarch said that the trance was the
result of vapors, and indeed this may have been the case, for according