U.S. Strategy for Pakistan and Afghanistan - Council on Foreign

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The Council on Foreign Relations sponsors Independent Task Forces to assess issues of U
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partisan deliberations. Once launched, Task Forces are independent of CFR and solely re- y
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sponsible for the content of their reports. Task Force members are asked to join a consensus r
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signifying that they endorse “the general policy thrust and judgments reached by the group, a
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though not necessarily every finding and recommendation.” Each Task Force member also ista
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has the option of putting forward an additional or a dissenting view. Members’ affiliations a
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Richard L. Armitage John M. Keane
Armitage International L.C. SCP Partners
Reza Aslan Michael Krepon
University of California, Riverside Henry L. Stimson Center
J. Brian Atwood Sloan C. Mann
University of Minnesota Development Transformations
David W. Barno Daniel S. Markey
Center for a New American Security Council on Foreign Relations
Samuel R. Berger John A. Nagl
Albright Stonebridge Group Center for a New American Security
Independent Task Force Report No. 65
Karan K. Bhatia John D. Negroponte
General Electric Company McLarty Associates
Marshall M. Bouton Charles S. Robb Chairs
Richard L. Armitage and Samuel R. Berger,
Chicago Council on Global Affairs George Mason University
Project Director
Steve Coll Teresita C. Schaffer Daniel S. Markey,
New America Foundation Center for Strategic and
International Studies
Joseph J. Collins
National War College Shirin R. Tahir-Kheli U.S. Strategy
James F. Dobbins Carnegie Corporation of New York In
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RAND Corporation Ashley J. Tellis p
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C. Christine Fair Carnegie Endowment nd
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for International Peace n
Georgetown University t T for Pakistan and
John A. Gastright John W. Warner as
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DynCorp International Hogan Lovells Fo
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Andrew Wilder c
Robert L. Grenier e
United States Institute of Peace R
ERG Partners e
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26085_AGS-Cover-R1.indd 1 10/29/10 2:30 PM
U.S. Strategy for
Pakistan and Afghanistan

Independent Task Force Report No. 65
Richard L. Armitage and
Samuel R. Berger, Chairs
Daniel S. Markey, Project Director
U.S. Strategy for
Pakistan and Afghanistan
The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think
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The Council on Foreign Relations takes no institutional positions on policy issues and has no affiliation
with the U.S. government. All statements of fact and expressions of opinion contained in its publications
are the sole responsibility of the author or authors.
The Council on Foreign Relations sponsors Independent Task Forces to assess issues of current and critical
importance to U.S. foreign policy and provide policymakers with concrete judgments and recommenda-
tions. Diverse in backgrounds and perspectives, Task Force members aim to reach a meaningful consensus
on policy through private and nonpartisan deliberations. Once launched, Task Forces are independent of
CFR and solely responsible for the content of their reports. Task Force members are asked to join a consen-
sus signifying that they endorse “the general policy thrust and judgments reached by the group, though not
necessarily every finding and recommendation.” Each Task Force member also has the option of putting
forward an additional or dissenting view. Members’ affiliations are listed for identification purposes only
and do not imply institutional endorsement. Task Force observers participate in discussions, but are not
asked to join the consensus.
For further information about CFR or this Task Force, please write to the Council on Foreign Relations,
58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065, or call the Communications office at 212.434.9888. Visit CFR’s
website at www.cfr.org.
Copyright © 2010 by the Council on Foreign Relations®, Inc.
All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America.
This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, in any form beyond the reproduction permitted
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the world’s forests.
Task Force Members
Task Force members are asked to join a consensus signifying that they
endorse “the general policy thrust and judgments reached by the group,
though not necessarily every finding and recommendation.” They par-
ticipate in the Task Force in their individual, not institutional, capacities.
Richard L. Armitage C. Christine Fair
Armitage International L.C. Georgetown University
Reza Aslan John A. Gastright
University of California, Riverside DynCorp International
J. Brian Atwood Robert L. Grenier
University of Minnesota ERG Partners
David W. Barno John M. Keane
Center for a New American SCP Partners
Security
Michael Krepon
Samuel R. Berger Henry L. Stimson Center
Albright Stonebridge Group
Sloan C. Mann
Karan K. Bhatia Development Transformations
General Electric Company
Daniel S. Markey
Marshall M. Bouton Council on Foreign Relations
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
John A. Nagl
Steve Coll Center for a New American
New America Foundation Security
Joseph J. Collins John D. Negroponte
National War College McLarty Associates
James F. Dobbins Charles S. Robb
RAND Corporation George Mason University
v
vi Task Force Members
Teresita C. Schaffer John W. Warner
Center for Strategic and Hogan Lovells
International Studies
Andrew Wilder
Shirin R. Tahir-Kheli United States Institute of Peace
Carnegie Corporation
of New York
Ashley J. Tellis
Carnegie Endowment
for International Peace
Contents
Foreword ix
Acknowledgments xi
Task Force Report 1
Introduction 3
The Threat 18
U.S. Strategic Objectives 29
An Assessment of U.S. Strategy and Policy 36
Policy Options and Recommendations: Pakistan 45
Policy Options and Recommendations: Afghanistan 56
Conclusion 65
Additional or Dissenting Views 68
Endnotes 72
Task Force Members 76
Task Force Observers 88

Foreword
It is now nine years since the United States first went to war in Afghani-
stan. The rationale for doing so in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks
was clear. Now, however, the United States has embarked on a differ-
ent and considerably more ambitious undertaking in Afghanistan that
affects—and is affected by—the complex political currents of Pakistan
and its border regions. It is not clear that U.S. interests warrant such an
investment. Nor is it clear that the effort will succeed.
In Pakistan, a weak civilian government is struggling to cope with a
plethora of challenges exacerbated by this summer’s floods. The military
has lost more than two thousand men in an ongoing battle with insur-
gents in the country’s northwest. But the army does not fight all militants
equally. Islamabad’s ongoing tolerance of—and even support for—
extremist groups that target American interests in Afghanistan and glob-
ally calls into question the basis of the U.S. relationship with Pakistan.
In Afghanistan, the Taliban insurgency is more violent than at any
point since the U.S. invasion after 9/11. NATO forces are paying a
heavy toll. Afghan public enthusiasm for the government is waning
after years of unmet expectations. The economy, devastated by more
than thirty years of war, has not recovered sufficiently to provide for the
people, while the government remains largely ineffective and riven by
corruption.
The Obama administration, about to embark on its third policy
review in two years, must decide how best to address these challenges,
given local realities, growing U.S. debt, and wide public skepticism
about the present U.S. strategy.
This Council on Foreign Relations–sponsored Independent Task
Force sought to identify U.S. interests and objectives in Pakistan and
Afghanistan, assess existing policy, explore the potential of alternative
strategies, and make recommendations for future policy. The Task Force
offers a qualified endorsement of President Obama’s approach to the
region, including the expansion of U.S. assistance to Pakistan, the surge
ix