No. ID‐29 OFFICE OF INDUSTRIES WORKING PAPER U.S. International Trade Commission U.S. Multinational Services Companies: Effects of Foreign Affiliate Activity on U.S. Employment Authors: Lisa Alejandro Richard Brown Erick Oh Joann Peterson Samantha Brady Pham Matthew Reisman Isaac Wohl Special Assistance: Patricia M. Cooper Cynthia Payne August 2011 The authors are analysts with the Office of Industries of the U.S. International Trade Commission. Office of Industries working papers are the result of the ongoing professional research of USITC Staff and solely represent the opinions and professional research of individual authors. These papers do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. International Trade Commission or any of its individual Commissioners. Working papers are circulated to promote the active exchange of ideas between USITC Staff and recognized experts outside the USITC, and to promote professional development of Office staff by encouraging outside professional critique of staff research. ADDRESS CORRESPONDENCE TO: OFFICE OF INDUSTRIES U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE COMMISSION WASHINGTON, DC 20436 USA 1 Abstract This working paper examines the effect that U.S. services firms’ establishment abroad has on domestic employment. Whereas many papers have explored the employment effects of foreign direct investment in manufacturing, few have explored the effects of services investment. We find that services multinationals’ activities abroad increase U.S. employment by promoting intrafirm exports from parent firms to their foreign affiliates. These exports support jobs at the parents’ headquarters and throughout their U.S. supply chains. Our findings are principally based on economic research and econometric analysis performed by Commission staff, services trade and investment data published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and employment data collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In the aggregate, we find that services activities abroad support nearly 700,000 U.S. jobs. Case studies of U.S. multinationals in the banking, computer, logistics, and retail industries provide the global dimensions of U.S. MNC operations and identify domestic employment effects associated with foreign affiliate activity in each industry. 1 This paper represents solely the views of the authors and is not meant to represent the views of the U.S. International Trade Commission or any of its commissioners. Please direct all correspondence to Lisa Alejandro, Office of Industries, U.S. International Trade Commission, 500 E Street, SW, Washington, DC 20436, telephone: 202‐205‐ 3486, fax: 202‐205‐2359, email: [email protected]. i CONTENTS Page Abstract i Introduction 1 3 1: Estimation of Employment Effects 6 Domestic employment effects 2: Banking Services 15 Summary 15 Industry overview 15 Operations of Multinational Banks and Links to Employment 18 3: Computer Services 23 Summary 23 Overview 23 Employment in computer services 26 Effects on multinational’s foreign activities on U.S. employment 27 Conclusions 31 4: Logistics Services 33 Summary 33 Industry overview 33 Operations of MNCs in the logistics industry 36 International operations of logistics services providers 36 Overall employment trends 37 International employment 38 Employment in the United States 39 Employment at firms that rely on logistics networks 42 Conclusion 42 5: Retail Services 45 Summary 45 Overview: An increasingly international business 45 Employment in the retail industry 48 Operations of multinational retailers and U.S. employment 52 Directions for future research 55 Conclusion 57 iii Page Bibliography 61 Appendix 71 Boxes 1 Relationship between cross‐border services exports and affiliate sales 9 2 Domestic employment requirements matrixl 13 3 Employment categories for courier and messenger service providers 34 4 Contingent workers, independent contractors and FedEx 40 5 Proctor & Gamble expands global sales through Wal‐Mart 56 Figures 1 Intrafirm exports of intangible intellectual property, by type, 2009 11 2 An increase in intrafirm exports drives first‐ and second‐order employment 12 effects 3 U.S. and global banking revenues, 2006–10 16 4 Regional share of global revenues, 2010 16 5 Top ten computer systems design and related services companies, 2009 25 6 Total assets of computer systems design firms, by industry of parent, 1999‐2008 27 7 Employees of MOFAs of U.S. firms exceeded employment at U.S. parent companies in 2008 28 8 Global retail sales, by country group, 2004 and 2009 46 9 U.S. multinational retailers, sales by parent companies and by majority‐owned foreign affiliates, 1999–2008 49 10 Growth of employment within the United States, 2000–09 50 11 Wal‐Mart employment, by location, 1998–2010 51 12 Labor productivity (output per hour), U.S. supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores, 1999–09 52 iv Page Tables 1 Number of affiliates in the top 10 countries of establishment, 1999 and 4 2008 2 Value added of majority‐owned foreign affiliates by industry ($ million), 1998 and 2008 5 3 Employment in majority‐owned foreign affiliates by country (thousands of employees), 1999 and 2008 5 4 Employment in majority‐owned foreign affiliates by industry (thousands of employees), 1999 and 2008 6 5 Correlation matrix 8 6 Regression results 8 7 Multinational parent firms’ intrafirm exports of services 10 8 Estimated number of jobs supported by intrafirm exports of services by multinational companies, 2008 14 9 Top 10 global banks by assets, 2009 17 10 Assets and foreign operations of U.S. banks among the top 25 global banks, 2009 17 11 U.S. job supported by an additional $1 billion of banking services output, top ten industries, 2009 20 12 Employment and wages for certain occupations within the U.S. banking sector, 2002–09 20 13 Top ten computer systems design and related services companies, 2009 25 14 U.S. jobs supported by an additional $1 billion of computer services output, 2008 31 15 Financial profile of top 4 global logistics firms, 2009 36 16 FedEx and UPS: Number of foreign subsidiaries and employees 37 17 U.S. job supported by an additional $1 billion of courier and messenger services output,2008 41 18 Top 10 retailers, by global retail sales, 2009 47 19 Top 10 retailers in the United States, 2009 47 20 U.S. jobs supported by an additional $1 billion of U.S. retail output, 2008 53 A.1 Estimated number of jobs supported by intrafirm exports of services by multinational companies, 2008: detailed calculations 73 v Introduction Do the foreign activities of U.S. multinational companies (MNCs) create jobs in the United States or erode them? This question has been a focus of research and popular debate in recent years, but relatively little of this attention has been devoted to service industries. This working paper examines how the foreign activities of multinational service firms affect employment in the United States. In chapter 1, we review some basic data on U.S. multinational service companies, then examine the relationship between these firms’ foreign affiliate activities and U.S. employment. We find that domestic employment is positively correlated with such activities, and that these relationships are statistically significant. This suggests that domestic employment and foreign activity in services are complements. Next, we present data that show how multinational parent firms and their affiliates work in concert to compete in foreign markets. We focus on the size and growth of intrafirm services trade, particularly domestic parent firms’ exports to foreign affiliates. These exports support jobs at multinational parent firms’ headquarters and throughout their U.S. supply chains. Using an “employment requirements” matrix developed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and trade data, we estimate the number of jobs thus supported. Our findings suggest that intrafirm exports of services by U.S. multinational companies support nearly 700,000 U.S. jobs. To place these results in context, chapters 2 through 5 examine the banking, computer, logistics, and retail service industries. These sectors were selected because they feature some of the most active multinational service providers headquartered in the United States. The case studies briefly describe each industry, discuss the global dimensions of U.S. MNCs’ operations, and identify the domestic employment effects associated with foreign affiliate activity. 1
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