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A Joint Report by the Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency U r a n i u m Resources, Production and Demand Uranium 2018: Resources, Production and Demand A Joint Report by the Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency Uranium 2018: Resources, Production and Demand © OECD 2018 NEA No. 7413 NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT The OECD is a unique forum where the governments of 36 democracies work together to address the economic, social and environmental challenges of globalisation. The OECD is also at the forefront of efforts to understand and to help governments respond to new developments and concerns, such as corporate governance, the information economy and the challenges of an ageing population. The Organisation provides a setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and work to co-ordinate domestic and international policies. The OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The European Commission takes part in the work of the OECD. OECD Publishing disseminates widely the results of the Organisation’s statistics gathering and research on economic, social and environmental issues, as well as the conventions, guidelines and standards agreed by its members. This work is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) was established on 1 February 1958. Current NEA membership consists of 33 countries: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The European Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency also take part in the work of the Agency. The mission of the NEA is: – to assist its member countries in maintaining and further developing, through international co-operation, the scientific, technological and legal bases required for a safe, environmentally sound and economical use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes; – to provide authoritative assessments and to forge common understandings on key issues as input to government decisions on nuclear energy policy and to broader OECD analyses in areas such as energy and the sustainable development of low-carbon economies. Specific areas of competence of the NEA include the safety and regulation of nuclear activities, radioactive waste management, radiological protection, nuclear science, economic and technical analyses of the nuclear fuel cycle, nuclear law and liability, and public information. The NEA Data Bank provides nuclear data and computer program services for participating countries. This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found online at: www.oecd.org/publishing/corrigenda. © OECD 2018 You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgement of the OECD as source and copyright owner is given. All requests for public or commercial use and translation rights should be submitted to PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Preface Since the mid-1960s, with the co-operation of their member countries and states, the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have jointly prepared periodic updates (currently every two years) on world uranium resources, production and demand. Such updates have been published in what are commonly known as the “Red Books”. th This 27 edition features a comprehensive assessment of uranium supply and demand and projections as of 1 January 2017 to the year 2035. The basis of this assessment is a comparison of uranium resource estimates (according to categories of geological certainty and production cost) and mine production capability with anticipated uranium requirements arising from projected installed nuclear capacity. Current data on resources, exploration, production and uranium stocks are also presented, along with historical summaries of exploration and production, and plans for future mine development. Available information on uranium secondary supply is provided and the potential impact of secondary sources on the market is assessed. Individual country reports offer detailed information on recent developments in uranium exploration and production, on environmental activities, regulatory requirements and on relevant national uranium policies. This publication has been prepared on the basis of data obtained through questionnaires sent by the NEA to OECD member countries and by the IAEA to other countries. It contains official data provided by 36 countries and 5 national reports prepared by the NEA and the IAEA. This report is published under the responsibility of the OECD Secretary-General. Acknowledgements This joint report was prepared by the NEA and IAEA secretariats. The contributions from across the two agencies were led by Dr Luminita Grancea at the NEA, and Dr Adrienne Hanly at the IAEA. The NEA and the IAEA gratefully acknowledge the attentive support provided by members of the Joint NEA/IAEA Group on Uranium, as well as the co-operation of those organisations and individuals listed in Appendix 1 that replied to the questionnaire. The input and participation of all was essential for the successful completion of this report. URANIUM 2018: RESOURCES, PRODUCTION AND DEMAND, NEA No. 7413, © OECD 2018 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of contents Executive summary ........................................................................................................................9 Chapter 1. Uranium supply ..........................................................................................................15 Uranium resources ....................................................................................................................15 Identified conventional resources ....................................................................................15 Distribution of resources by production method ...........................................................26 Distribution of resources by processing method ............................................................28 Distribution of resources by deposit type ........................................................................29 Proximity of resources to production centres .................................................................30 Additional conventional resources ...................................................................................30 Undiscovered resources .....................................................................................................32 Other resources and materials ..........................................................................................34 Uranium exploration .................................................................................................................38 Non-domestic ......................................................................................................................38 Domestic ...............................................................................................................................39 Current activities and recent developments ...................................................................44 Uranium production ..................................................................................................................53 Present status of uranium production .............................................................................57 Ownership ............................................................................................................................60 Employment .........................................................................................................................60 Production methods ............................................................................................................62 Projected production capabilities .....................................................................................62 Recent, committed mines and expansions .....................................................................65 References ...................................................................................................................................67 Chapter 2. Uranium demand .......................................................................................................69 Nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements ........................69 World.....................................................................................................................................69 OECD .....................................................................................................................................69 European Union ...................................................................................................................72 North America .....................................................................................................................75 East Asia ...............................................................................................................................76 Europe (non-EU) ...................................................................................................................77 Middle East, Central and Southern Asia ..........................................................................78 Central and South America................................................................................................79 Africa .....................................................................................................................................79 South-eastern Asia ..............................................................................................................80 Pacific ....................................................................................................................................80 Projected nuclear power capacity and related uranium requirements to 2035 ...............80 Factors affecting capacity and uranium requirements .................................................80 Projections to 2035 ..............................................................................................................83 URANIUM 2018: RESOURCES, PRODUCTION AND DEMAND, NEA No. 7413, © OECD 2018 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS Uranium supply and demand relationships ..........................................................................86 Primary sources of uranium supply .................................................................................86 Secondary sources of uranium supply .............................................................................88 Natural and enriched uranium stocks and inventories.................................................88 Nuclear fuel produced by reprocessing spent reactor fuels and surplus weapons-related plutonium ................................................................................93 Uranium produced by re-enrichment of depleted uranium tails and uranium saved through underfeeding .............................................................................96 Underfeeding .......................................................................................................................97 Uranium market developments ........................................................................................97 Supply and demand to 2035 ............................................................................................101 The long-term perspective .....................................................................................................104 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................107 References .................................................................................................................................107 Chapter 3. National reports on uranium exploration, resources, production, demand and the environment...........................................................................109 Algeria .......................................................................................................................................110 Argentina ..................................................................................................................................113 Armenia.....................................................................................................................................128 Australia ....................................................................................................................................130 Bolivia ........................................................................................................................................148 Brazil ..........................................................................................................................................150 Canada .......................................................................................................................................158 Chile ...........................................................................................................................................170 China (People’s Republic of) ...................................................................................................180 Czech Republic .........................................................................................................................190 Denmark/Greenland ................................................................................................................200 Finland.......................................................................................................................................203 France ........................................................................................................................................212 Germany ....................................................................................................................................217 Hungary .....................................................................................................................................223 India ...........................................................................................................................................229 Indonesia...................................................................................................................................243 Iran (Islamic Republic of) ........................................................................................................247 Japan ..........................................................................................................................................254 Jordan ........................................................................................................................................259 Kazakhstan ...............................................................................................................................264 Mali ............................................................................................................................................277 Mexico .......................................................................................................................................280 Mongolia ....................................................................................................................................284 Namibia .....................................................................................................................................291 Niger ..........................................................................................................................................317 Paraguay ....................................................................................................................................327 Peru ............................................................................................................................................330 Russia ........................................................................................................................................334 6 URANIUM 2018: RESOURCES, PRODUCTION AND DEMAND, NEA No. 7413, © OECD 2018 TABLE OF CONTENTS Senegal ......................................................................................................................................345 Slovenia .....................................................................................................................................347 Spain ..........................................................................................................................................352 Tanzania ...................................................................................................................................359 Thailand ....................................................................................................................................364 Turkey .......................................................................................................................................367 Ukraine ......................................................................................................................................375 United Kingdom .......................................................................................................................386 United States ............................................................................................................................389 Uzbekistan ................................................................................................................................409 Viet Nam ...................................................................................................................................415 Zambia .......................................................................................................................................420 List of appendices 1. List of reporting organisations and contact persons.....................................................427 2. Members of the Joint NEA-IAEA Uranium Group participating in 2016-2017 meetings ..............................................................................................................................431 3. Glossary of definitions and terminology.........................................................................435 4. List of abbreviations and acronyms.................................................................................445 5. Energy conversion factors .................................................................................................449 6. List of all Red Book editions (1965-2018) and national reports ....................................451 List of figures 1.1. Global distribution of identified resources ..................................................................17 1.2. Distribution of reasonably assured resources among countries with a significant share of resources ....................................................................................26 1.3. Distribution of inferred resources among countries with a significant share of resources ...........................................................................................................26 1.4. Trends in exploration and development expenditures .............................................43 1.5. Uranium production in 2016: 62 071 tU .......................................................................56 1.6. Recent world uranium production ...............................................................................56 2.1. World installed nuclear capacity: 391 GWe net ..........................................................72 2.2. World uranium requirements: 62 825 tU .....................................................................72 2.3. Projected installed nuclear capacity to 2035 ...............................................................84 2.4. Annual reactor uranium requirements to 2035 ..........................................................86 2.5. Uranium production and reactor-related requirements for major producing and consuming countries ...........................................................................87 2.6. OECD and world uranium production and requirements .........................................88 2.7. Annual uranium production and requirements .........................................................89 2.8. Cumulative uranium production and requirements .................................................89 2.9. Uranium prices for short- and long-term purchases and exports (1982-2017) .........98 2.10. Uranium spot price dynamics .......................................................................................99 2.11. Projected world uranium production capability to 2035 (supported by identified resources at a cost of <USD 50/lb U3O8) compared with reactor requirements .................................................................................................................103 URANIUM 2018: RESOURCES, PRODUCTION AND DEMAND, NEA No. 7413, © OECD 2018 7 TABLE OF CONTENTS A3.1. Approximate correlation of terms used in major resources classification systems ...........................................................................................................................436 A3.2. NEA/IAEA classification scheme for uranium resources ........................................437 List of tables 1.1. Changes in identified resources (recoverable) 2015-2017 .........................................15 1.2a. Identified resources (recoverable) ................................................................................18 1.2b. Identified resources (in situ) ..........................................................................................19 1.2c. Comparison of in situ and recoverable identified resources ....................................20 1.3a. Reasonably assured resources (recoverable) ...............................................................20 1.3b. Reasonably assured resources (in situ) ........................................................................21 1.4a. Inferred resources (recoverable) ...................................................................................22 1.4b. Inferred resources (in situ) ............................................................................................23 1.5. Major identified resource changes by country ...........................................................24 1.6. Reasonably assured resources by production method ..............................................27 1.7. Inferred resources by production method ..................................................................27 1.8. Reasonably assured resources by processing method ..............................................28 1.9. Inferred resources by processing method ...................................................................28 1.10. Reasonably assured resources by deposit type ..........................................................29 1.11. Inferred resources by deposit type ...............................................................................30 1.12. Identified resources proximate to existing or committed production centres ......31 1.13. Additional identified resources.....................................................................................31 1.14. Reported undiscovered resources ................................................................................33 1.15. Unconventional uranium resources (1 000 tU) reported in 1965-2003 Red Books, with updated data from 2011-2017 in parentheses ...............................34 1.16. Non-domestic uranium exploration and mine development expenditures ..........39 1.17. Industry and government uranium exploration and mine development expenditures – domestic ................................................................................................40 1.18. Production in selected countries and reasons for major changes ...........................54 1.19. Historical uranium production .....................................................................................55 1.20. Ownership of uranium production based on 2016 output ........................................60 1.21. Employment in existing production centres of listed countries ..............................61 1.22. Employment directly related to uranium production ...............................................61 1.23. Percentage distribution of world production by production method .....................62 1.24. World uranium production capability to 2035 ............................................................63 1.25. Recent, committed mines and expansions .................................................................65 1.26. Prospective and planned mines (estimated production capacity in tU/yr) ............66 2.1. Nuclear data summary ...................................................................................................70 2.2. Electricity generated at nuclear power plants ............................................................71 2.3. Installed nuclear generating capacity to 2035 ............................................................83 2.4. Annual reactor-related uranium requirements to 2035 ............................................85 2.5. Uranium stocks in countries responding to the 2017 questionnaire ......................91 2.6. MOX production and use ...............................................................................................94 2.7. Reprocessed uranium production and use .................................................................95 2.8. Russian supply of re-enriched tails to EU end users .................................................96 2.9. Re-enriched tails production and use ..........................................................................97 2.10. ESA average natural uranium prices (2011-2017) .....................................................101 8 URANIUM 2018: RESOURCES, PRODUCTION AND DEMAND, NEA No. 7413, © OECD 2018

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