Uranium 2018

462 Pages·2017·9.08 MB·English

A Joint Report by the Nuclear Energy Agency
and the International Atomic Energy Agency
U r a n i u m
Resources,
Production
and Demand
Uranium 2018: Resources, Production and Demand
A Joint Report by the Nuclear Energy Agency
and the International Atomic Energy Agency
Uranium 2018:
Resources, Production and Demand

© OECD 2018
NEA No. 7413
NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
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NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY
The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) was established on 1 February 1958. Current NEA membership
consists of 33 countries: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark,
Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the
Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden,
Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The European Commission and the
International Atomic Energy Agency also take part in the work of the Agency.
The mission of the NEA is:
– to assist its member countries in maintaining and further developing, through international
co-operation, the scientific, technological and legal bases required for a safe, environmentally sound
and economical use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes;
– to provide authoritative assessments and to forge common understandings on key issues as input to
government decisions on nuclear energy policy and to broader OECD analyses in areas such as
energy and the sustainable development of low-carbon economies.
Specific areas of competence of the NEA include the safety and regulation of nuclear activities,
radioactive waste management, radiological protection, nuclear science, economic and technical analyses of
the nuclear fuel cycle, nuclear law and liability, and public information. The NEA Data Bank provides nuclear
data and computer program services for participating countries.

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PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Preface
Since the mid-1960s, with the co-operation of their member countries and states, the
OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
have jointly prepared periodic updates (currently every two years) on world uranium
resources, production and demand. Such updates have been published in what are
commonly known as the “Red Books”.
th
This 27 edition features a comprehensive assessment of uranium supply and
demand and projections as of 1 January 2017 to the year 2035. The basis of this
assessment is a comparison of uranium resource estimates (according to categories of
geological certainty and production cost) and mine production capability with anticipated
uranium requirements arising from projected installed nuclear capacity. Current data on
resources, exploration, production and uranium stocks are also presented, along with
historical summaries of exploration and production, and plans for future mine
development. Available information on uranium secondary supply is provided and the
potential impact of secondary sources on the market is assessed. Individual country
reports offer detailed information on recent developments in uranium exploration and
production, on environmental activities, regulatory requirements and on relevant
national uranium policies.
This publication has been prepared on the basis of data obtained through
questionnaires sent by the NEA to OECD member countries and by the IAEA to other
countries. It contains official data provided by 36 countries and 5 national reports prepared
by the NEA and the IAEA. This report is published under the responsibility of the OECD
Secretary-General.
Acknowledgements
This joint report was prepared by the NEA and IAEA secretariats. The contributions from
across the two agencies were led by Dr Luminita Grancea at the NEA, and Dr Adrienne
Hanly at the IAEA. The NEA and the IAEA gratefully acknowledge the attentive support
provided by members of the Joint NEA/IAEA Group on Uranium, as well as the
co-operation of those organisations and individuals listed in Appendix 1 that replied to
the questionnaire. The input and participation of all was essential for the successful
completion of this report.
URANIUM 2018: RESOURCES, PRODUCTION AND DEMAND, NEA No. 7413, © OECD 2018 3
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Table of contents
Executive summary ........................................................................................................................9
Chapter 1. Uranium supply ..........................................................................................................15
Uranium resources ....................................................................................................................15
Identified conventional resources ....................................................................................15
Distribution of resources by production method ...........................................................26
Distribution of resources by processing method ............................................................28
Distribution of resources by deposit type ........................................................................29
Proximity of resources to production centres .................................................................30
Additional conventional resources ...................................................................................30
Undiscovered resources .....................................................................................................32
Other resources and materials ..........................................................................................34
Uranium exploration .................................................................................................................38
Non-domestic ......................................................................................................................38
Domestic ...............................................................................................................................39
Current activities and recent developments ...................................................................44
Uranium production ..................................................................................................................53
Present status of uranium production .............................................................................57
Ownership ............................................................................................................................60
Employment .........................................................................................................................60
Production methods ............................................................................................................62
Projected production capabilities .....................................................................................62
Recent, committed mines and expansions .....................................................................65
References ...................................................................................................................................67
Chapter 2. Uranium demand .......................................................................................................69
Nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements ........................69
World.....................................................................................................................................69
OECD .....................................................................................................................................69
European Union ...................................................................................................................72
North America .....................................................................................................................75
East Asia ...............................................................................................................................76
Europe (non-EU) ...................................................................................................................77
Middle East, Central and Southern Asia ..........................................................................78
Central and South America................................................................................................79
Africa .....................................................................................................................................79
South-eastern Asia ..............................................................................................................80
Pacific ....................................................................................................................................80
Projected nuclear power capacity and related uranium requirements to 2035 ...............80
Factors affecting capacity and uranium requirements .................................................80
Projections to 2035 ..............................................................................................................83

URANIUM 2018: RESOURCES, PRODUCTION AND DEMAND, NEA No. 7413, © OECD 2018 5
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Uranium supply and demand relationships ..........................................................................86
Primary sources of uranium supply .................................................................................86
Secondary sources of uranium supply .............................................................................88
Natural and enriched uranium stocks and inventories.................................................88
Nuclear fuel produced by reprocessing spent reactor fuels and
surplus weapons-related plutonium ................................................................................93
Uranium produced by re-enrichment of depleted uranium tails and
uranium saved through underfeeding .............................................................................96
Underfeeding .......................................................................................................................97
Uranium market developments ........................................................................................97
Supply and demand to 2035 ............................................................................................101
The long-term perspective .....................................................................................................104
Conclusion ................................................................................................................................107
References .................................................................................................................................107
Chapter 3. National reports on uranium exploration, resources, production,
demand and the environment...........................................................................109
Algeria .......................................................................................................................................110
Argentina ..................................................................................................................................113
Armenia.....................................................................................................................................128
Australia ....................................................................................................................................130
Bolivia ........................................................................................................................................148
Brazil ..........................................................................................................................................150
Canada .......................................................................................................................................158
Chile ...........................................................................................................................................170
China (People’s Republic of) ...................................................................................................180
Czech Republic .........................................................................................................................190
Denmark/Greenland ................................................................................................................200
Finland.......................................................................................................................................203
France ........................................................................................................................................212
Germany ....................................................................................................................................217
Hungary .....................................................................................................................................223
India ...........................................................................................................................................229
Indonesia...................................................................................................................................243
Iran (Islamic Republic of) ........................................................................................................247
Japan ..........................................................................................................................................254
Jordan ........................................................................................................................................259
Kazakhstan ...............................................................................................................................264
Mali ............................................................................................................................................277
Mexico .......................................................................................................................................280
Mongolia ....................................................................................................................................284
Namibia .....................................................................................................................................291
Niger ..........................................................................................................................................317
Paraguay ....................................................................................................................................327
Peru ............................................................................................................................................330
Russia ........................................................................................................................................334
6 URANIUM 2018: RESOURCES, PRODUCTION AND DEMAND, NEA No. 7413, © OECD 2018
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Senegal ......................................................................................................................................345
Slovenia .....................................................................................................................................347
Spain ..........................................................................................................................................352
Tanzania ...................................................................................................................................359
Thailand ....................................................................................................................................364
Turkey .......................................................................................................................................367
Ukraine ......................................................................................................................................375
United Kingdom .......................................................................................................................386
United States ............................................................................................................................389
Uzbekistan ................................................................................................................................409
Viet Nam ...................................................................................................................................415
Zambia .......................................................................................................................................420
List of appendices
1. List of reporting organisations and contact persons.....................................................427
2. Members of the Joint NEA-IAEA Uranium Group participating in 2016-2017
meetings ..............................................................................................................................431
3. Glossary of definitions and terminology.........................................................................435
4. List of abbreviations and acronyms.................................................................................445
5. Energy conversion factors .................................................................................................449
6. List of all Red Book editions (1965-2018) and national reports ....................................451

List of figures
1.1. Global distribution of identified resources ..................................................................17
1.2. Distribution of reasonably assured resources among countries with
a significant share of resources ....................................................................................26
1.3. Distribution of inferred resources among countries with a significant
share of resources ...........................................................................................................26
1.4. Trends in exploration and development expenditures .............................................43
1.5. Uranium production in 2016: 62 071 tU .......................................................................56
1.6. Recent world uranium production ...............................................................................56
2.1. World installed nuclear capacity: 391 GWe net ..........................................................72
2.2. World uranium requirements: 62 825 tU .....................................................................72
2.3. Projected installed nuclear capacity to 2035 ...............................................................84
2.4. Annual reactor uranium requirements to 2035 ..........................................................86
2.5. Uranium production and reactor-related requirements for major
producing and consuming countries ...........................................................................87
2.6. OECD and world uranium production and requirements .........................................88
2.7. Annual uranium production and requirements .........................................................89
2.8. Cumulative uranium production and requirements .................................................89
2.9. Uranium prices for short- and long-term purchases and exports (1982-2017) .........98
2.10. Uranium spot price dynamics .......................................................................................99
2.11. Projected world uranium production capability to 2035 (supported by
identified resources at a cost of <USD 50/lb U3O8) compared with reactor
requirements .................................................................................................................103
URANIUM 2018: RESOURCES, PRODUCTION AND DEMAND, NEA No. 7413, © OECD 2018 7
TABLE OF CONTENTS
A3.1. Approximate correlation of terms used in major resources classification
systems ...........................................................................................................................436
A3.2. NEA/IAEA classification scheme for uranium resources ........................................437
List of tables
1.1. Changes in identified resources (recoverable) 2015-2017 .........................................15
1.2a. Identified resources (recoverable) ................................................................................18
1.2b. Identified resources (in situ) ..........................................................................................19
1.2c. Comparison of in situ and recoverable identified resources ....................................20
1.3a. Reasonably assured resources (recoverable) ...............................................................20
1.3b. Reasonably assured resources (in situ) ........................................................................21
1.4a. Inferred resources (recoverable) ...................................................................................22
1.4b. Inferred resources (in situ) ............................................................................................23
1.5. Major identified resource changes by country ...........................................................24
1.6. Reasonably assured resources by production method ..............................................27
1.7. Inferred resources by production method ..................................................................27
1.8. Reasonably assured resources by processing method ..............................................28
1.9. Inferred resources by processing method ...................................................................28
1.10. Reasonably assured resources by deposit type ..........................................................29
1.11. Inferred resources by deposit type ...............................................................................30
1.12. Identified resources proximate to existing or committed production centres ......31
1.13. Additional identified resources.....................................................................................31
1.14. Reported undiscovered resources ................................................................................33
1.15. Unconventional uranium resources (1 000 tU) reported in 1965-2003
Red Books, with updated data from 2011-2017 in parentheses ...............................34
1.16. Non-domestic uranium exploration and mine development expenditures ..........39
1.17. Industry and government uranium exploration and mine development
expenditures – domestic ................................................................................................40
1.18. Production in selected countries and reasons for major changes ...........................54
1.19. Historical uranium production .....................................................................................55
1.20. Ownership of uranium production based on 2016 output ........................................60
1.21. Employment in existing production centres of listed countries ..............................61
1.22. Employment directly related to uranium production ...............................................61
1.23. Percentage distribution of world production by production method .....................62
1.24. World uranium production capability to 2035 ............................................................63
1.25. Recent, committed mines and expansions .................................................................65
1.26. Prospective and planned mines (estimated production capacity in tU/yr) ............66
2.1. Nuclear data summary ...................................................................................................70
2.2. Electricity generated at nuclear power plants ............................................................71
2.3. Installed nuclear generating capacity to 2035 ............................................................83
2.4. Annual reactor-related uranium requirements to 2035 ............................................85
2.5. Uranium stocks in countries responding to the 2017 questionnaire ......................91
2.6. MOX production and use ...............................................................................................94
2.7. Reprocessed uranium production and use .................................................................95
2.8. Russian supply of re-enriched tails to EU end users .................................................96
2.9. Re-enriched tails production and use ..........................................................................97
2.10. ESA average natural uranium prices (2011-2017) .....................................................101

8 URANIUM 2018: RESOURCES, PRODUCTION AND DEMAND, NEA No. 7413, © OECD 2018