Uranium 2016.

550 Pages·08.149 MB·English

by  OECD

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A Joint Report by
the Nuclear Energy Agency
and the International Atomic Energy Agency
NEA
NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY

A Joint Report by the Nuclear Energy Agency
and the International Atomic Energy Agency
Uranium 2016:
Resources, Production and Demand

© OECD 2016
NEA No. 7301
NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
The OECD is a unique forum where the governments of 35 democracies work together to address the
economic, social and environmental challenges of globalisation. The OECD is also at the forefront of efforts to
understand and to help governments respond to new developments and concerns, such as corporate
governance, the information economy and the challenges of an ageing population. The Organisation provides
a setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify
good practice and work to co-ordinate domestic and international policies.
The OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic,
Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea,
Latvia, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic,
Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The European
Commission takes part in the work of the OECD.
OECD Publishing disseminates widely the results of the Organisation’s statistics gathering and research
on economic, social and environmental issues, as well as the conventions, guidelines and standards agreed
by its members.
This work is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD.
NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY
The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) was established on 1 February 1958. Current NEA membership
consists of 31 countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France,
Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands,
Norway, Poland, Portugal, Russia, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the
United Kingdom and the United States. The European Commission and the International Atomic Energy
Agency also take part in the work of the Agency.
The mission of the NEA is:
– to assist its member countries in maintaining and further developing, through international
co-operation, the scientific, technological and legal bases required for a safe, environmentally
friendly and economical use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes;
– to provide authoritative assessments and to forge common understandings on key issues, as input
to government decisions on nuclear energy policy and to broader OECD policy analyses in areas
such as energy and sustainable development.
Specific areas of competence of the NEA include the safety and regulation of nuclear activities,
radioactive waste management, radiological protection, nuclear science, economic and technical analyses of
the nuclear fuel cycle, nuclear law and liability, and public information. The NEA Data Bank provides nuclear
data and computer program services for participating countries.

This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the
delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found online at: www.oecd.org/publishing/corrigenda.
© OECD 2016
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Cover photos: Atucha 2 NPP, Argentina (Nucleoeléctrica Argentina S.A.); uranium ore: uranophane (Areva); Cigar Lake mine, Canada (Cameco).
PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Preface
Since the mid-1960s, with the co-operation of their member countries and states, the
OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
have jointly prepared periodic updates (currently every two years) on world uranium
resources, production and demand. Such updates have been published in what are
commonly known as the “Red Books”. The 26th edition of the Red Book reflects
information current as of 1 January 2015.
This 26th edition features a comprehensive assessment of uranium supply and
demand in 2015 and projections to the year 2035. The basis of this assessment is a
comparison of uranium resource estimates (according to categories of geological
certainty and production cost) and mine production capability with anticipated uranium
requirements arising from projected installed nuclear capacity. In cases where longer-
term projections of installed nuclear capacity were not provided by national authorities,
projected demand figures were developed with input from expert authorities. Current
data on resources, exploration, production and uranium stocks are also presented, along
with historical summaries of exploration and production, and plans for future mine
production. Available information on secondary sources of uranium is provided and the
potential impact of secondary sources on the market is assessed. Individual country
reports offer detailed information on recent developments in uranium exploration and
production, on environmental activities, regulatory requirements and on relevant
national uranium policies.
This publication has been prepared on the basis of data obtained through
questionnaires sent by the NEA to OECD member countries and by the IAEA to other
countries. It contains official data provided by 37 countries and 12 national reports
prepared by the NEA and the IAEA. The opinions expressed in Chapters 1 and 2 do not
necessarily reflect the position of the member countries or international organisations
concerned. This report is published on the responsibility of the OECD Secretary-General.
Acknowledgements
The Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
gratefully acknowledge the co-operation of those organisations that replied to the
questionnaire (see Appendix 1).

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URANIUM 2016: RESOURCES, PRODUCTION AND DEMAND, NEA No. 7301, © OECD 2016

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Table of contents
Executive summary ...................................................................................................................... 9
Chapter 1. Uranium supply ........................................................................................................ 15
Uranium resources .................................................................................................................. 15
Identified conventional resources .......................................................................................... 15
Distribution of resources by production method ................................................................... 27
Distribution of resources by processing method.................................................................... 28
Distribution of resources by deposit type .............................................................................. 29
Proximity of resources to production centres ........................................................................ 30
Additional conventional resources ........................................................................................ 31
Undiscovered resources ......................................................................................................... 32
Other resources and materials .............................................................................................. 34
Thorium ................................................................................................................................. 38
Uranium exploration ............................................................................................................... 45
Non-domestic......................................................................................................................... 45
Domestic ................................................................................................................................ 46
Current activities and recent developments .......................................................................... 49
Uranium production ................................................................................................................ 59
Present status of uranium production ................................................................................... 63
Ownership ............................................................................................................................. 65
Employment .......................................................................................................................... 66
Production methods ............................................................................................................... 68
Projected production capabilities ........................................................................................... 68
Recent, planned, committed mines and expansions .............................................................. 71
References ................................................................................................................................. 74

Chapter 2. Uranium demand ..................................................................................................... 75
Nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements ...................... 75
World..................................................................................................................................... 75
OECD ..................................................................................................................................... 75
European Union ..................................................................................................................... 79
North America ....................................................................................................................... 83
East Asia ............................................................................................................................... 84
Europe (non-EU) .................................................................................................................... 86
Middle East, Central and Southern Asia ............................................................................... 87
Central and South America ................................................................................................... 90
Africa ..................................................................................................................................... 90
South-eastern Asia ................................................................................................................ 91
Pacific .................................................................................................................................... 92
Projected nuclear power capacity and related uranium requirements to 2035 ............. 92
Factors affecting capacity and uranium requirements.......................................................... 92
Projections to 2035 ................................................................................................................ 95

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Uranium supply and demand relationships ...................................................................... 102
Primary sources of uranium supply .................................................................................... 102
Secondary sources of uranium supply ................................................................................ 102
Uranium market developments ........................................................................................... 114
Supply and demand to 2035 ............................................................................................... 118
The long-term perspective ................................................................................................... 121
Conclusion .............................................................................................................................. 124
References ............................................................................................................................... 125
Chapter 3. National reports on uranium exploration, resources, production,
demand and the environment ............................................................................. 127
Algeria ..................................................................................................................................... 128
Argentina ................................................................................................................................ 131
Armenia ................................................................................................................................... 145
Australia .................................................................................................................................. 147
Botswana ................................................................................................................................. 163
Brazil ........................................................................................................................................ 168
Canada ..................................................................................................................................... 177
Chad ......................................................................................................................................... 190
Chile ......................................................................................................................................... 192
China (People’s Republic of) ................................................................................................. 202
Czech Republic ....................................................................................................................... 213
Denmark/Greenland .............................................................................................................. 224
Finland ..................................................................................................................................... 227
France ...................................................................................................................................... 236
Germany .................................................................................................................................. 242
Hungary ................................................................................................................................... 248
India ......................................................................................................................................... 254
Indonesia ................................................................................................................................. 269
Iran (Islamic Republic of) ...................................................................................................... 273
Iraq ........................................................................................................................................... 281
Italy .......................................................................................................................................... 282
Japan ........................................................................................................................................ 286
Jordan ...................................................................................................................................... 291
Kazakhstan ............................................................................................................................. 296
Malawi ..................................................................................................................................... 311
Mali .......................................................................................................................................... 320
Mauritania ............................................................................................................................... 323
Mexico ..................................................................................................................................... 328
Mongolia .................................................................................................................................. 331
Namibia ................................................................................................................................... 338
Niger ........................................................................................................................................ 359
Peru .......................................................................................................................................... 369
Poland ...................................................................................................................................... 374
Portugal ................................................................................................................................... 380
Russia ....................................................................................................................................... 385
Slovak Republic ...................................................................................................................... 397
Slovenia ................................................................................................................................... 406
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
South Africa ............................................................................................................................ 411
Spain ........................................................................................................................................ 428
Sweden .................................................................................................................................... 435
Tanzania .................................................................................................................................. 441
Thailand .................................................................................................................................. 447
Turkey ...................................................................................................................................... 450
Ukraine .................................................................................................................................... 458
United Kingdom ..................................................................................................................... 471
United States .......................................................................................................................... 474
Uzbekistan .............................................................................................................................. 495
Viet Nam ................................................................................................................................. 500
Zambia ..................................................................................................................................... 505

List of appendices
1. List of reporting organisations and contact persons ................................................... 511
2. Members of the Joint NEA-IAEA Uranium Group participating in 2014-2015
meetings ............................................................................................................................ 515
3. Glossary of definitions and terminology ....................................................................... 519
4. List of abbreviations and acronyms ............................................................................... 531
5. Energy conversion factors ............................................................................................... 535
6. List of all Red Book editions (1965-2016) and national reports .................................. 537
7. Groups of countries and areas with uranium-related activities ............................... 545

List of figures
1.1. Global distribution of identified resources ................................................................ 17
1.2. Distribution of reasonably assured resources among countries with a
significant share of resources ..................................................................................... 26
1.3. Distribution of inferred resources among countries with a significant
share of resources ......................................................................................................... 26
1.4. Trends in exploration and development expenditures ........................................... 49
1.5. Uranium production in 2014: 55 975 tU ..................................................................... 62
1.6. Recent world uranium production ............................................................................. 62
2.1. World installed nuclear capacity: 377.4 GWe net ..................................................... 77
2.2. World uranium requirements: 56 585 tU ................................................................... 77
2.3. Projected installed nuclear capacity to 2035 ........................................................... 101
2.4. Annual reactor uranium requirements to 2035 ...................................................... 101
2.5. Uranium production and reactor-related requirements for major
producing and consuming countries ....................................................................... 103
2.6. OECD and world uranium production and requirements ..................................... 103
2.7. Annual uranium production and requirements ..................................................... 104
2.8. Cumulative uranium production and requirements ............................................. 105
2.9. Uranium prices: 1982-2015 ........................................................................................ 115
2.10. Uranium spot price dynamics ................................................................................... 116
2.11. Projected world uranium production capability to 2035 compared with
reactor requirements .................................................................................................. 119

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
List of tables
1.1. Changes in identified resources (recoverable) 2013-2015 ....................................... 16
1.2a. Identified resources (recoverable) .............................................................................. 18
1.2b. Identified resources (in situ) ........................................................................................ 19
1.2c. Comparison of in situ and recoverable identified resources .................................. 20
1.3a. Reasonably assured resources (recoverable) ............................................................. 20
1.3b. Reasonably assured resources (in situ) ...................................................................... 21
1.4a. Inferred resources (recoverable) ................................................................................. 22
1.4b. Inferred resources (in situ) .......................................................................................... 23
1.5. Major identified resource changes by country ......................................................... 24
1.6. Reasonably assured resources by production method ............................................ 27
1.7. Inferred resources by production method ................................................................ 28
1.8. Reasonably assured resources by processing method ............................................ 28
1.9. Inferred resources by processing method ................................................................. 29
1.10. Reasonably assured resources by deposit type ........................................................ 29
1.11. Inferred resources by deposit type ............................................................................. 30
1.12. Identified resources proximate to existing or committed production centres .... 31
1.13. Additional identified resources................................................................................... 32
1.14. Reported undiscovered resources .............................................................................. 33
1.15. Unconventional uranium resources (1 000 tU) reported in 1965-2003
Red Books, with updated data from 2011-2015 in parentheses ............................. 35
1.16. Major thorium deposit types and resources (ThDEPO)............................................ 39
1.17. Identified thorium resources....................................................................................... 40
1.18. Non-domestic uranium exploration and mine development expenditures ........ 45
1.19. Industry and government uranium exploration and mine development
expenditures – domestic (in countries listed) ........................................................... 47
1.20. Production in selected countries and reasons for major changes ......................... 60
1.21. Historical uranium production ................................................................................... 60
1.22. Ownership of uranium production based on 2014 output ...................................... 66
1.23. Employment in existing production centres of listed countries ............................ 67
1.24. Employment directly related to uranium production ............................................. 67
1.25. Percentage distribution of world production by production method ................... 68
1.26. World uranium production capability to 2035 .......................................................... 69
1.27. Recent, planned, committed mines and expansions .............................................. 72
1.28. Prospective mines (estimated production capacity in tU/yr) ................................. 73
2.1. Nuclear data summary ................................................................................................. 76
2.2. Electricity generated at nuclear power plants .......................................................... 78
2.3. Installed nuclear generating capacity to 2035 .......................................................... 97
2.4. Annual reactor-related uranium requirements to 2035 .......................................... 99
2.5. Uranium stocks in countries responding to 2015 questionnaire ......................... 106
2.6. MOX production and use ........................................................................................... 111
2.7. Reprocessed uranium production and use ............................................................. 111
2.8. Russian supply of re-enriched tails to EU end users ............................................. 113
2.9. Re-enriched tails production and use ...................................................................... 114
2.10. ESA average natural uranium prices (2009-2015) ................................................... 118

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