Uranium 2003 : Resources, Production and Demand.

292 Pages·2004·1.986 MB·English

by  OECD

A Joint Report by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency
and the International Atomic Energy Agency
2004
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ranium 2003: Resources,
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the results of a thorough review of world uranium supplies and demand as of 1 January 2003 0
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centres in Africa, Australia, Eastern Europe and North America and for the first time, a report for P
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N U C L E A R • E N E R G Y • A G E N C Y
ISBN 92-64-01673-2
A Joint Report by
the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency
and the International Atomic Energy Agency

Uranium 2003:
Resources, Production
and Demand

© OECD 2004
NEA No. 5291

NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Pursuant to Article 1 of the Convention signed in Paris on 14th December 1960, and which came into force on
30th September 1961, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shall promote policies
designed:
(cid:0) to achieve the highest sustainable economic growth and employment and a rising standard of living in member
countries, while maintaining financial stability, and thus to contribute to the development of the world economy;
(cid:0) to contribute to sound economic expansion in Member as well as non-member countries in the process of economic
development; and
(cid:0) to contribute to the expansion of world trade on a multilateral, non-discriminatory basis in accordance with
international obligations.
The original member countries of the OECD are Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece,
Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United
Kingdom and the United States. The following countries became Members subsequently through accession at the dates
indicated hereafter: Japan (28th April 1964), Finland (28th January 1969), Australia (7th June 1971), New Zealand
(29th May 1973), Mexico (18th May 1994), the Czech Republic (21st December 1995), Hungary (7th May 1996), Poland
(22nd November 1996), the Republic of Korea (12th December 1996) and the Slovak Republic (14th December 2000). The
Commission of the European Communities takes part in the work of the OECD (Article 13 of the OECD Convention).
NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY
The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) was established on 1st February 1958 under the name of the OEEC
European Nuclear Energy Agency. It received its present designation on 20th April 1972, when Japan became its first
non-European full member. NEA membership today consists of 28 OECD Member countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium,
Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan,
Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Republic of Korea, the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden,
Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The Commission of the European Communities also takes
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The mission of the NEA is:
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Publié en français sous le titre :
URANIUM 2003 :
RESSOURCES, PRODUCTION ET DEMANDE – ÉDITION 2004
Photos: Uranium processing plant at Ranger mine, Alligator Rivers region, Northern Territory, Australia. Kombolgie
sandstone escarpment in the distance. Courtesy of Energy Resources of Australia Ltd.
© OECD 2004
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PREFACE
Since the mid-1960s, with the co-operation of their member countries and states, the OECD
Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have jointly
prepared periodical updates (currently every two years) on world uranium resources, production and
demand. These updates have been published by the OECD/NEA in what is commonly known as the
“Red Book”. This 20th edition of the Red Book replaces the 2001 edition and reflects information
current as of 1 January 2003.
The Red Book offers a comprehensive assessment of the uranium supply and demand situation up
to the year 2020. The basis for the assessment consists of estimates of uranium resources in several
categories of existence and economic attractiveness, projections of production capability, installed
nuclear capacity and related uranium requirements. Annual statistical data and projections of uranium
resources, exploration, production, installed nuclear capacity, annual uranium requirements, uranium
stocks and relevant uranium policies are presented. In addition, detailed national reports are provided
that include information on environmental activities.
This publication analyses the uranium supply and demand situation throughout the world by
evaluating data on uranium resources, past and present production, and plans for future production,
comparing that data with projected future reactor-related uranium requirements. The impact of
secondary sources of uranium is considered. Longer-term projections of uranium demand, based on
expert opinion rather than on information submitted by national authorities, are qualitatively discussed
in the report.
This publication has been prepared on the basis of data obtained through questionnaires sent by
the NEA to its member countries (18 countries responded) and by the IAEA for those states that are
not OECD member countries (25 countries responded). The opinions expressed in Parts I and II do not
necessarily reflect the position of the countries or international organisations concerned. This report is
published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD.
Acknowledgement
The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), Paris, and the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA), Vienna, would like to acknowledge the co-operation of those organisations (see Annex 2),
which replied to the questionnaire.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
PREFACE............................................................................................................................................ 3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................................................. 9
I. URANIUM SUPPLY.................................................................................................................. 13
A. URANIUM RESOURCES.................................................................................................... 13
(cid:1) Known Conventional Resources............................................................................... 13
(cid:1) Distribution of Known Conventional Resources by Categories and Cost Ranges... 13
(cid:1) Distribution of Resources by Production Method..................................................... 14
(cid:1) Availability of Resources.......................................................................................... 20
(cid:1) Undiscovered Conventional Resources.................................................................... 20
(cid:1) Unconventional Resources and Other Materials....................................................... 22
B. URANIUM EXPLORATION............................................................................................... 22
(cid:1) Current Activities and Recent Developments........................................................... 23
C. URANIUM PRODUCTION.................................................................................................. 28
(cid:1) Present Status of Uranium Production...................................................................... 31
(cid:1) Production Techniques............................................................................................. 34
(cid:1) Projected Production Capabilities............................................................................. 34
(cid:1) Changes in Production Facilities.............................................................................. 36
II. URANIUM DEMAND................................................................................................................. 39
A. CURRENT COMMERCIAL NUCLEAR GENERATING CAPACITY AND
REACTOR-RELATED URANIUM REQUIREMENTS.................................................... 39
B. PROJECTED NUCLEAR POWER CAPACITY AND RELATED URANIUM
REQUIREMENTS TO 2020................................................................................................. 47
(cid:1) Factors Affecting Capacity and Uranium Requirements.......................................... 47
(cid:1) Projections to 2020......................................................................................................... 48
C. URANIUM SUPPLY AND DEMAND RELATIONSHIPS............................................... 52
(cid:1) Primary Sources of Uranium Supply............................................................................. 52
(cid:1) Secondary Sources of Supply........................................................................................ 55
(cid:1) Uranium Market Developments.................................................................................... 61
(cid:1) Supply and Demand to 2020.......................................................................................... 63
D. THE LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE.................................................................................... 65
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III. NATIONAL REPORTS ON URANIUM EXPLORATION, RESOURCES,
PRODUCTION, DEMAND AND THE ENVIRONMENT................................................... 69
Algeria............................................................................................................................................ 70
Argentina........................................................................................................................................ 71
Armenia.......................................................................................................................................... 76
Australia......................................................................................................................................... 77
Belgium.......................................................................................................................................... 87
Brazil.............................................................................................................................................. 90
Canada............................................................................................................................................ 97
Chile................................................................................................................................................ 108
China............................................................................................................................................... 111
Czech Republic.............................................................................................................................. 117
Denmark (Greenland).................................................................................................................... 125
Egypt............................................................................................................................................... 126
Estonia............................................................................................................................................ 128
Finland............................................................................................................................................ 130
France............................................................................................................................................. 133
Gabon............................................................................................................................................. 138
Hungary.......................................................................................................................................... 140
India................................................................................................................................................ 144
Indonesia......................................................................................................................................... 152
Iran, Islamic Republic of................................................................................................................ 154
Japan............................................................................................................................................... 157
Jordan.............................................................................................................................................. 161
Kazakhstan..................................................................................................................................... 163
Korea, Republic of......................................................................................................................... 171
Lithuania......................................................................................................................................... 173
Namibia.......................................................................................................................................... 175
Niger............................................................................................................................................... 180
Peru................................................................................................................................................. 185
Philippines...................................................................................................................................... 186
Portugal........................................................................................................................................... 188
Russian Federation......................................................................................................................... 191
Slovak Republic............................................................................................................................. 199
Slovenia.......................................................................................................................................... 201
South Africa................................................................................................................................... 204
Spain............................................................................................................................................... 212
Sweden........................................................................................................................................... 216
Switzerland..................................................................................................................................... 219
Turkey............................................................................................................................................. 221
Turkmenistan.................................................................................................................................. 223
Ukraine........................................................................................................................................... 224
United Kingdom............................................................................................................................. 230
United States of America............................................................................................................... 234
Uzbekistan...................................................................................................................................... 243
Vietnam.......................................................................................................................................... 250
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ANNEXES
1. Members of the Joint NEA-IAEA Uranium Group ..................................................................... 253
2. List of Reporting Organisations and Contact Persons.................................................................. 257
3. Glossary of Definitions and Terminology..................................................................................... 261
4. Acronym List.................................................................................................................................. 273
5. Energy Conversion Factors............................................................................................................ 275
6. Index of National Reports in Red Books....................................................................................... 279
7. Currency Exchange Rates.............................................................................................................. 285
8. Grouping of Countries and Areas with Uranium-related Activities............................................. 287
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Uranium 2003 – Resources, Production and Demand, presents the results of the most recent
review of world uranium market fundamentals and provides a statistical profile of the world uranium
industry as of 1 January 2003. First published in 1965, this, the 20th edition of what has become known
as the “Red Book”, contains official data provided by 43 countries along with unofficial data for one
additional country on uranium exploration, resources, production and reactor-related requirements.
Projections of nuclear generating capacity and reactor-related uranium requirements through 2020 are
provided as well as a discussion of long-term uranium supply and demand issues.
Exploration
Worldwide exploration expenditures in 2002 totalled about USD 95 million, an increase of about
7% over 2001 expenditures, but still less than expenditures of between USD 110 million and
USD 155 million recorded from 1996 to 1998. Exploration activities remain concentrated in areas with
potential for unconformity-related deposits and ISL-amenable sandstone deposits, primarily in close
proximity to known resources. Limited expenditures were directed toward “grass roots” exploration.
Over 80% of the exploration expenditures in 2002 were devoted to domestic activities. Non-domestic
exploration expenditures, although reported by two countries only (Canada and France), rose to almost
USD 17 million in 2002, reversing a declining trend in non-domestic exploration expenditures that
began in 1997. Exploration spending is expected to rise slightly in 2003, with expenditures projected
to total over USD 98 million.
Resources
Total Known Conventional Resources (RAR & EAR-I) in both the <USD 80/kgU (about
3 537 000 tonnes U) and <USD 130/kgU (about 4 589 000 tonnes U) categories increased significantly
compared to their 2001 levels. Known Resources in the <USD 40/kgU increased by about 21%
compared to 2001, mainly due to increases in this category reported by Australia, Canada, Niger and
Kazakhstan. Total Undiscovered Conventional Resources (EAR-II & Speculative Resources) in 2003
amounted to about 9 794 000 tonnes U (tU), a decline of some 2 477 000 tU from the total reported
in 2001, mainly due to reductions reported by China and the Russian Federation.
Resource totals, on balance, remained little changed between 2001 and 2003, showing that new
discoveries or the transfer of resources to higher confidence categories have approximately kept pace
with production.
Production
Uranium production in 2002 totalled 36 042 tU, essentially unchanged from the 36 011 tU
produced in 2000, but down somewhat from the 37 020 tU produced in 2001. A total of 20 countries
reported output in 2002, compared to 21 in 2000, as Portugal ceased production in 2001. Besides
Brazil, where production increased significantly at a new facility that had just begun production
in 2000, the most significant production increase between 2000 and 2002 occurred in Kazakhstan,
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which reported a 51% increase. More modest production increases (<10%) were also recorded in
Canada, Niger and the Russian Federation. In contrast, production in the United States declined by
40% between 2000 and 2002 while Namibia (14%), Australia (10%) and Uzbekistan (8%) also
recorded decreased output. Significant reductions also occurred in France and Spain as uranium mines
ceased production in 2001 and 2002, respectively; the limited output from these two countries in 2002
was the result of mine restoration activities. Underground mining accounted for 43% of global
production in 2002; open pit mining, 27%; in situ leach mining, 18%; with co-product and by-product
recovery from copper and gold operations and other unconventional methods accounting for most of
the remaining 12%. Uranium production in 2003 is expected to decline to 35 382 tU, as reductions in
Canada and the United States are expected to offset anticipated increases in Kazakhstan, the Russian
Federation, Australia and Namibia.
Environmental aspects of uranium production
Although the focus of this publication remains uranium resources, production and demand, the
importance of environmental aspects of uranium production is clear given the number of countries
reporting on activities and providing cost information on environmental programmes in their country
reports. Although the majority of these activities are related to the decommissioning and reclamation
of inactive sites, there is also information on reclamation activities at sites still in production, as well
as notification of ISO 14001 certification of uranium facilities and information on environmental
assessment processes. Additional information on the environmental aspects of uranium production
may be found in the national reports section of this document and a joint NEA/IAEA Uranium Group
titled Environmental Remediation of World Uranium Production Facilities, Paris, OECD, 2002.
Uranium demand
At the end of 2002, a total of 441 commercial nuclear reactors were operating with a net
generating capacity of about 364 GWe requiring about 66 815 tU. By the year 2020, world nuclear
capacity is projected to grow to between about 418 GWe net in the low demand case and 483 GWe net
in the high demand case. Accordingly, world reactor-related uranium requirements are projected to
rise to between about 73 495 tU and 86 070 tU by 2020. Significant regional variation exists within
these broad projections.
Several factors, including projected base load electricity demand, public acceptance of nuclear
energy and proposed waste management strategies, as well as the economic competitiveness of nuclear
power plants and fuel compared to other energy sources, will impact these projections. Concerns about
longer-term security of supply of fossil fuels and a heightened awareness that nuclear power plants
emit no greenhouse gases nor acid rain could well contribute to even greater projected growth in
uranium demand over the long-term.
Supply and demand relationship
At the end of 2002, world uranium production (36 042 tU) provided about 54% of world reactor
requirements (66 815 tU), with the remainder being met by secondary sources including civilian and
military stockpiles, uranium reprocessing and re-enrichment of depleted uranium.
The uranium market over the mid-term remains uncertain due to the limited information available
on the nature and extent of secondary supplies. Information presented in this document suggests that
although commercial inventories have declined, they remain substantial. Given that uranium derived
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