Untitled - Alice

483 Pages·2013·5.72 MB·English

The book is dedicated to t he many people who have
fought with quite limited resources for the
modernization of Brazilian agriculture.
FOREWORD
This book is based on one of severa! agricul
tura! "bench mark" studies undertaken under Ford
Foundation sponsorship in Latin American countries
during 1966 and 1967. The researchers addressed
themselves to questions such as : What changes are
taking place in each country' s agricultura! output
and productivity? Are levels of per capita food
production, human nutrition , and rural living rising?
What relationships exist between the performance of
the agricultura! sector and the nation ' s total eco
nomic development? Can the strengths and weaknesses
of the agricultura! sector be identified? What are
the major impediments to more rapid rates of advance?
Among the means of accelerating agricultura! devel
opment, which should be given priority? Subjective
judgments necessarily are involved in the analysis
of such questi ons. The potential for improvement,
however, is substantial and real.
If the potential is great, why has it not been
realized? A partia! answer is that much of today ' s
advanced technology for food and f iber production
is developed to meet the needs of production within
a specific geographical area. Modern agricultural
production techniques developed in temperate zones
generally do not transfer directly to different en
vironrnents . Moreover, it is difficult to project
the rate at which new, well- adapted technology may
be developed in a particular country. This , in t urn ,
complicates attempts to estimate a nation ' s future
comparative advantage in the production of a crop or
an animal product. Historically , it was presumed
that developing nations had relative advantages in
agriculture , compared with industry; these countries
were irnportant exporters of agricultura! products ,
including the food-grains. In recent years , however ,
the net f low of trade in basi c food crops has been
from the developed to the l ess- developed nations .
vii
Public and private investments in production re
search, educational prograrns , provision of fertilizer
and other inputs, and infrastructure development
compete for scarce resources. In the absence of sys
tematic evaluation and policy guidelines , therefore ,
policy decisions concerning resource development and
use may be the product of short-run pressures , rather
than contributions to a rational plan.
This study of Brazil (and related studies in
the series) indicates that several nations that for
merly gave top priority to industrialization now are
re-examining the potential contribution of agricul
ture to balanced development. Research in agricul
tural production technology carried on in tropical
and subtropical regions has been greatly stimulated
by the performance of the new Mexican wheat and
Philippine rice varieties. Multidisciplinary teams
have shown that substantial yield increases can be
profitably obtained.
Although çapacity to advance production tech
nology is necessary, this capability in itself con
stitutes only part of tb:e: 'tiotal ·effort needed for
rapid econornic growth. ·structural, ins ti tutional ,
policy, and organizational changes often are equally
irnportant. Work in the policy area, however, is
often more controversial and harder to evaluate than
is production research. As this study demonstrates ,
key questions in the policy-organization- planning
area rernain to be answered. It is at the interface
where agriculture, industry, and public policy meet
that the rnost signif icant questions are raised.
s.
Lowell Hardin
Ford Foundation
June , 196 8
viii
PREFACE
This diagnosis , or bench mark study, of Brazil
ian agriculture , undertaken at the request and under
the sponsorship of the Ford Foundation, was started
in the American summer of 1966. The obj ectives
~f
the study were:
1 . To determine for a recent historical period
(five years suggested} the changes which have taken
place in Brazil' s agricultura! output, productivity,
per capita food production and consumption , l evels
of hurnan nutrition, welfare of rural peopl e , and con
tribution to the nation's econornic developrnent.
2. To determine what factors were associated
with the rneasured changes and their contributions,
and to identify irnpedirnents to more rapid rates of
progress . (The objective here was to identify
strengths and weaknesses in the agricultura! sector
as revealed by systernatic analysis.}
3. To predict, within what appear to be the
rnost reali stic assurnptions with respect to key eco
nornic , social, institutional, and population projec
tions , the probable changes in factors , ratios , etc.
during the decade ahead.
4. To array in priority arder rneans of irn
proving agricultura! developrnent in Brazil, providing
estirnates of costs and probable consequences of sug
gested innovations , prograrns , and public or private
actions . Here the objective was to conceive of rneans
for bolstering strengths and rninirnizing or elirninating
the identified weaknesses i n the agricultura! sector
and to place thern in a general alternative-consequen
ces framework . Food-population balance issues were
to receive high priority.
The study is based in large part on secondary
data and secondary sources. This involves data
ix
collected on a systematic basis by national or state
statistical agencies--much of which has serious limi
tations--and individual studies made for theses of
doutoramento, M. S.' s, or Ph.D. 's. We suppl emented
this by traveling to all parts of Brazil and attemp
ting to talk with key agricultural people--primarily
in teaching, research, or extension agencies.
Our modus operandi consisted of the following:
Dr. Russell Youmans was hired full- time for a month
in the United States to collect what basic data were
available in Washington and various U.S. libraries.
The authors arrived in Brazil on June 10, 1966 , and
spent three weeks organizing the study and collecting
as much basic data as possible in Rio de Janeiro.
We then spent the next six weeks traveling, visiting
key schools of agriculture and research institutions.
The final three weeks of the summer were spent in
Rio de Janeiro attempting to digest what we had
learned and writing down analyses of individual sec
tors. We were assisted throughout this stay in Brazil
by Sra. Maria Ignez Angeli Schuh , the senior author's
wife.
Upon return to the United States in Septernber,
1966, Dr. Schuh took the responsibility of organizing
and collating the material collected, doing the anal
ysis, and writing the manuscript. This was done
while carrying the normal load of academic duties at
Purdue University and serving as program advisor in
agriculture for Ford Foundation-Brazil.
Mr. Alves read drafts of each chapter as they
were written and corrected errors of fact and/or in
terpretation. In addition he served as a valuable
sparring partner when Dr. Schuh wanted to discuss an
issue. His impact on the final manuscript is sub
stantial.
During the 1968-1969 academic year the manuscript
was substantially revised by Dr. Schuh. This r evi
sion was based on review cornments of a large number
of people, both Brazilian and North American. Spe
cial thanks are due to Harry Ayer, Louis Herrnann, and
Larry Witt, each of whom gave detailed comments. Re
sponsibility for the final manuscript is Dr. Schuh's ,
however.
The study itself is subject to serious limita
tions. Time limitations precluded the thorough
X
analysis necessary for the rather ambitious project.
The underlying data are known to be subject to ser
ious weaknesses, and many times visits to institu
tions and places were not long enough to cross check
irnpressions and probe deeply into problems and events .
However, policy decisions are being made and
resources are being expended. We hope that we have
at least asked the right questions , and that in some
small way the allocation of developmental resources
will be improved by the information generated in this
study.
ln a broader context, the "bench mark" set here
rnay be not only to identify the state of development
of Brazilian agriculture, but also to "bench mark"
the state of our knowledge about the process of eco
nomic developrnent in Brazilian agriculture. We hope
that the study provides a starting point for more in
tensive studies of this process, and of the analysis
necessary to develop more rational devel opmental pol
icies .
xi
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors are indebted to many people and to
many institutions . Among these are Ady Raul de Silva
of the Ministry of Agriculture and the directors of
the federal research institutes who took the time to
explain their programs and organizations to us ; the
Fundação Getúlio Vargas , which shared its library
with us , answered questions , and generated much of
the data used in the study; Ruy Miller Paiva, who is
always ready to discuss Brazilian agriculture; Rubens
Dias , who made his library available , provided data,
and was of assistance in numerous other ways ; members
of the ABCAR system, who provided data and material,
freely discussed their program, and at times · pro
vided transportation; and Ary Burger, who helped us
with contacts in Rio Grande do Sul and arranged
transportation on our visit to that state .
Dr. Schuh would especially like to thank Edson
Potsch Magalhães and Erly Dias Brandão who have done
much to stimulate his i nterest in Brazil and who
have taught him many things about Brazilian agricul
ture . We are both indebted in many ways to UREMG and
its staff , not onlv for their direct contribution in
this study but also for their past inf luence on both
authors .
On the direct suppor t side , our thanks go t o
Stacey Widdicombe , Ford Foundation representative
in Brazil, who provided a pleasant and stimulating
work environment and logistical support, and who made
no complaint when we turned his library into a sham
bles with our work program; to Lowell Hardin , who
conceived the idea of the "bench mark" studies for
Latin American countries and who developed the rough
outline for the study; and to Dr. Russell Youmans ,
who did the earl y work on collecting data. Morris
Whitak.er and Petronio Ri os have been of tremendous
hel p in updating and adding to the data for this re
vised version.
xiii
Part of this revision was made while Dr. Schuh
was research associate with the Development Advisory
Service (DAS) of Harvard University. He is indebted
to the DAS for the facilities and environment which
it provided, as well as to his own department head,
Dr. Charles E. French, for his encouragement, the
resources he provided to make completion of the study
possible, and for the opportunity he provided to do
it in the first place.
xiv
CONTENTS
Page
FOREWORD by Lowell S. Hardin vii
PREFACE ix
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS xiii
LIST OF TABLES xxi
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS xxxi
Chapter
1 DEVELOPMENT OF THE TOTAL ECONOMY 3
Characteristics of Recent Growth 6
Inflation and the Monetary Situation 14
The External Sector 17
Developrnent Policies and Programa 19
Public Investrnent 20
Notes 25
2 POPULATION, MIGRATION, ANO THE LABOR MARKET 27
The Population and Its Geographic
Distribution 27
Migration 30
Geographic Shifts 33
The Rural-Urban Flow 42
The Labor Market 46
Inter-Sectoral Changes in Ernployrnent 46
Incorne and Productivity Differentials 51
Sumrnary 63
Notes 66
3 AGRICULTURE'S ROLE IN THE ECONOMY 69
Sectoral Breakdown of Incorne and Growth
Rates 70
Nutri tion 7 8
XV