Unstable majorities: polarization, party sorting, and political stalemate

262 Pages·2017·1.41 MB·English

by  Fiorina, Morris P

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Praise for
Unstable Majorities
In Unstable Majorities Fiorina makes a series of very important argu-
ments about the American electoral process and the role of the pub-
lic in it. Although completed not long after the election, Fiorina is
able to offer early wisdom about the Trump election and the Trump
era. The public, he demonstrates, has long been and continues to
be basically moderate in its ideological and policy views. The pub-
lic votes with high degrees of consistency in large part because the
parties so consistently select the same kinds of candidates—liberal
Democrats facing off against conservative Republicans. Given the
same alternatives, the public tends to vote the same from election
to election. Trump’s victory, in his view, was essentially continuous
with the series of elections in the twenty-fi rst century. In net, only
a small proportion of the electorate changed its choices from 2012
to 2016. It is the nature of simple majority rule that, in reasonably
close contests, yields the vast changes we observe, such as between
Trump and Obama.
—John Aldrich, Pfi zer-Pratt University
Professor of Political Science, Duke University
In this impassioned yet scholarly book Fiorina explores the insta-
bility that has resulted in recent American politics, as a generally
moderate and confl icted electorate has been forced to choose among
options served up to them by increasingly polarized political par-
ties and activists. The paradox is that voters increasingly follow the
party line but that political outcomes have become wildly oscillating
and unpredictable. As Fiorina explains we can only understand vot-
ers in the context of the choices they face.
—Andrew Gelman, Professor, Department of Statistics and
Department of Political Science, Columbia University
Few, if any, write as clearly and persuasively about politics as Mo
Fiorina. Many will pick up this book thinking that polarization in
the electorate is as obvious as the fact that the sun rises in the east,
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but they will immediately fi nd themselves on their heels. Excellent
scholarship causes us to question what we were sure was true, and
no one causes us to do that as reliably as Fiorina.
—Marc J. Hetherington, Vanderbilt University
Once again Mo Fiorina shows us how institutions matter by remind-
ing readers that voters are only as good as the choices in front of
them. The implication in the wake of the 2016 presidential election
is important: voters haven’t failed democracy, party leaders have
failed voters. To rehabilitate the reputation of voters in America,
political elites must recruit and nominate candidates worthy of
being chosen who, once elected, may actually refl ect the positions
of most voters—near the middle. Unstable Majorities is a classic
Fiorina antidote to the hysteria of cable news and the panic among
those who tend only to talk to others just like themselves.
—Lynn Vavreck, PhD, UCLA Political Science
& Communication Studies
Here Fiorina zeroes in on the most signifi cant and distinctive features
of the contemporary US political landscape: tenuous party control
of government, nationalized elections, and dissatisfi ed voters. The
book is highly readable, rich with insight, packed with concise fi g-
ures and data, and likely to interest broad audiences inside and out-
side academia.
—Frances Lee, University of Maryland
Are Americans and their political parties highly polarized? Fiorina
set off a great debate over this question in Culture Wars? Now, after
an intervening decade of turbulent politics, he revisits the question in
Unstable Majorities. Whether or not you arrive at the same answers
about polarization that he does, his thought-provoking analysis is
must reading for anyone seriously interested in American politics.
—James E. Campbell, author of Polarized:
Making Sense of a Divided America.
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UNSTABLE
MAJORITIES
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Polarization, Party Sorting, and Political Stalemate
Morris P. Fiorina
HOOVER INSTITUTION PRESS
Stanford University Stanford, California
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Hoover Institution Press Publication No. 685
Hoover Institution at Leland Stanford Junior University,
Stanford, California 94305-6003
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Leland Stanford Junior University
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ISBN: 978-0-8179-2115-6 (pbk. : alk. paper)
ISBN: 978-0-8179-2116-3 (epub)
ISBN: 978-0-8179-2117-0 (mobi)
ISBN: 978-0-8179-2118-7 (PDF)
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To George P. Shultz,
American statesman,
in appreciation of his support.
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