Unmanned Combat Air Systems in Future Warfare: Gaining Control of the Air

243 Pages·2015·2.7 MB·English

by  Colin Wills

Unmanned Combat Air Systems in Future Warfare

Unmanned Combat Air
Systems in Future Warfare
Gaining Control of the Air
Colin Wills
Director, Combat Air Solutions Ltd
© Colin Wills 2015
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2015 978-1-137-49847-2
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First published 2015 by
PALGRAVE MACMILLAN
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registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills,
Basingstoke, Hampshire, RG21 6XS.
Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin’s Press LLC,
175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010.
Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies
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Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States,
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ISBN 978-1-349-69822-6 ISBN 978-1-137-49849-6 (eBook)
DOI 10.1057/9781137498496
This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully
managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing
processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the
country of origin.
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Wills, Colin, 1959–
Unmanned combat air systems in future warfare : gaining control
of the air / Colin Wills, Director, Combat Air Solutions Ltd.
pages cm
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. Air warfare. 2. Uninhabited combat aerial vehicles. 3. United
States. Air Force—Weapons systems. 4. United States. Navy—Weapons
systems. I. Title.
UG633.W568 2015
358.4’183—dc23 2015012829
Contents
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations viii
1 Introduction 1
2 Research Interviews 5
Interviewee background and experience 5
Analysis 7
NEC and requirement to enter the close-combat fight 8
Third-Party Targeting 9
UCAS airframe characteristics and manoeuvrability
requirements 11
Ethical and political implications 13
Is the manned fighter necessary and could UCAS
gain control of the air in 2040? 15
Summary 15
3 Overview 17
UCAS background 17
Future threat environment 19
Technologies 20
Aerial warfare 21
US UAS roadmaps 22
Autonomy or automation? 24
The one-seat versus two-seat debate 26
Potential cost benefits 29
Leadership challenges 30
The UCAS debate 31
Concept of operations 32
Summary 35
4 Unmanned Combat Air Systems: Technical and
Legal Challenges 37
UCAS developments 37
UCAS technological challenges 40
Future weapon systems and autonomy capabilities 42
Autonomy 43
TDL 46
vi Contents
AAR 47
Weapon systems and sensors 48
Countermeasures 50
The LOAC and employment of UCAS 51
The LOAC 52
Summary 55
5 The Role of Air and Space Power and Control of the Air 57
Control of the air 62
The counter-air campaign 64
Summary 67
Components of the counter-air campaign 68
Basing 69
Stealth 70
Counters to stealth 71
Weapon systems, sensors and enablers 73
Electronic warfare 75
Cyber warfare 76
Command and control 77
Network enabled capability 77
Integrated air defence system 78
Situational awareness 79
Historical analysis of situational awareness 80
AAM development 87
Western AAM development 88
Russian and Chinese AAM development 91
6 The Evolution of Air-to-Air Warfare 93
AAS kill probability 94
Historical analysis of air-to-air kills 96
Modern air-to-air combat philosophy 101
Future air-to-air scenario 104
UCAS CONOPS 107
7 International Relations and Future Threats 111
Introduction 111
China 117
China’s strategic priorities 120
Economic development 123
String of pearls, SLOC and the South China Sea 124
China’s military build-up 126
The First and Second Island Chains 130
Contents vii
Taiwan and the South China Sea 130
Summary 132
China’s A2/AD doctrine 133
Counters to China’s A2/AD doctrine 138
China’s ASBM development 138
Summary 141
8 Conclusion 145
Notes 153
Bibliography 189
Responders to Questionnaire 189
Military 189
Aviation Analysts 191
Civilians 191
Chatham House Rule 192
Archive References 192
Freedom of Information Requests 192
Personal Correspondence and Serendipitous Research 192
Transcripts 192
Books 193
Electronic Books 201
Journals 202
Electronic Journals 205
Dissertations and Theses 206
Official Publications 207
Newspaper and Periodical Articles 213
Electronic Newspaper and Periodical Articles 215
Websites 217
Index 221
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations
A2/AD Anti-Access/Area-Denial
AAG Air-to-Air Gun
AAM Air-to-Air Missile
AAR Air-to-Air Refuelling
AAS Air-to-Air System
ABM Anti-Ballistic Missile
ACEVAL Air Combat Evaluation
ACM Air Chief Marshal
ACMI Air Combat Manoeuvring Instrumentation
AESA Active Electronically Scanned Array
AEW Airborne Early Warning
AFRL Air Force Research Laboratory
AI Artificial Intelligence
AM Air Marshal
AMRAAM Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile
AAA Anti-Aircraft Artillery
ASBM Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile
ASCM Anti-Ship Cruise Missile
ASRAAM Advanced Short-Range Air-to-Air Missile
ASMS Advanced Surface Missile System
ATD Automatic Target Detection
ATI Automatic Target Initiation
ATR Automatic target Recognition
AWACS Airborne Warning and Control System
BACN Battlefield Airborne Communication Node
BM Ballistic Missile
BVR Beyond Visual Range
C2 Command and Control
C4ISTAR Command, Control, Communications, Computers,
Intelligence, Surveillance, Targeting Acquisition and
Reconnaissance
CAS Chief of the Air Staff
CCP Chinese Communist Party
CDE Collateral Damage Estimation
CID Combat Identification
viii
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations ix
CIHL Customary International Humanitarian Law
CNP Comprehensive National Power
COIN Counter Insurgency
COMAO Composite Air Operations
CNO Computer Network Operations
CONOPS Concept of Operations
COP Common Operating Picture
CSBA Center for Strategy and Budgetary Assessment
CSG Carrier Strike Group
DAMM Dynamic Airborne Mission Management
DCA Defensive Counter Air
DCDC Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre
DEW Directed Energy Weapons
DIRCM Directed Infrared Countermeasures
DMT Distributed Mission Training
DoD Department of Defense
DPOC Deep and Persistent Offensive Capability
DRFM Digital Radio Frequency Memory
DSTL Defence, Science and Technology Laboratory
EA Electronic Attack
ECM Electronic Countermeasures
ELINT Electronic Intelligence
EMS Electromagnetic Spectrum
EP Electronic Protection
ES Electronic Support
EW Electronic Warfare
FJ Fast Jet
F2T2EA Find, Fix, Target, Track, Engage and Assess
FLOAAT F unction-specific Level of Autonomy and Automation Tool
G Force of Gravity
GCS Ground Control Station
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GPS Global Positioning System
HEL High Energy Laser
HITL Human-in-the-Loop
HMCS Helmet Mounted Cueing System
HMI Human Machine Interface
HOBS High-Angle Off-Boresight
HOTL Human-on-the-Loop
HPM High-Powered Microwave
HVAA High Value Airborne Asset