Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS)

151 Pages·2013·2.14 MB·English

Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS)
Service Demand 2015 - 2035
Literature Review & Projections of Future Usage

Technical Report, Version 0.1 — September 2013
DOT-VNTSC-DoD-13-01

Prepared for:
United States Air Force
Aerospace Management Systems Division,
Air Traffic Systems Branch (AFLCMC/HBAG)
Hanscom AFB, Bedford, MA
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1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED
September 2013 Initial Technical Report
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. FUNDING NUMBERS
Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Service Demand 2015-2035: Literature Review and Projections of VHD2
Future Usage, Version 0.1
6. AUTHOR(S) 5b. CONTRACT NUMBER
MIPR #F2BDDL2100G001
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION
7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES)
REPORT NUMBER
U.S. Department of Transportation
DOT-VNTSC-DoD-13-01
John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center
55 Broadway
Cambridge, MA 02142
9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING
U.S. Air Force AGENCY REPORT NUMBER
Aerospace Management Systems Division, Air Traffic Systems
Branch (AFLCMC/HBAG)

Hanscom AFB
1641 Barksdale Rd.
Bedford, MA 01730
11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
Volpe Program Manager: Jason Glaneuski
12a. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE

13. ABSTRACT (Maximum 200 words)
This report assesses opportunities, risks, and challenges attendant to future development and deployment of UAS within the National
Airspace System (NAS) affecting UAS forecast growth from 2015 to 2035. Analysis of four key areas is performed: technology, mission
needs, economics, and existing or anticipated challenges to routine use in NAS operations. Forecast effects of emerging technologies as well
as anticipating new technological innovations in areas of airframes, powerplants, sensors, communication, command and control systems,
and information technology and processing are evaluated. Anticipated mission needs include intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance
(ISR), as well as new areas such as stores delivery, cargo transport, search and rescue, and pilot augmentation; example business case
models are developed for each of these areas. Challenges to routine UAS usage in the NAS include: absence of legislation and regulations
for safe flight in integrated airspace; pilot training and certification; regulatory, policy, and procedural issues; social issues, such as privacy
and nuisance concerns; environmental issues, such as noise and emissions; and safety.

Provided these challenges are largely mitigated, the following are projections of UAS fleet size by user in 2035: Department of Defense
~14,000, with additional ~5,000 having optional pilot augmentation (Air Force ~3,500; Navy + Marines ~2,500; Army ~10,000); Public
Agencies (Federal, State, & Local) ~70,000. Total UAS vehicles will approach ~250,000 by 2035, of which ~175,000 will be in the commercial
marketplace. UAS operations are expected to surpass manned aircraft operations, for both military and commercial domains, by 2035.
14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGES
Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV), Remotely Piloted Vehicles (RPV),
137
Ground Based Sense and Avoid (GBSAA), Airborne Sense and Avoid (ABSAA), Communications, Command,
and Control (C3), Sensors, Information Technology, Airframes, Powerplants, Mission Needs, Economic 16. PRICE CODE
Barriers, Market Development, Commercial Markets, Business Models, Regulations, Policies, Procedures
17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 18. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 19. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 20. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT
OF REPORT OF THIS PAGE OF ABSTRACT Unlimited
Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified
Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89)
NSN 7540-01-280-5500
Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18
298-102
SI* (MODERN METRIC) CONVERSION FACTORS
APPROXIMATE CONVERSIONS TO SI UNITS
Symbol When You Know Multiply By To Find Symbol
LENGTH
in inches 25.4 millimeters mm
ft feet 0.305 meters m
yd yards 0.914 meters m
mi miles 1.61 kilometers km
AREA
in2 square inches 645.2 square millimeters mm2
ft2 square feet 0.093 square meters m2
yd2 square yard 0.836 square meters m2
ac acres 0.405 hectares ha
mi2 square miles 2.59 square kilometers km2
VOLUME
fl oz fluid ounces 29.57 milliliters mL
gal gallons 3.785 liters L
ft3 cubic feet 0.028 cubic meters m3
yd3 cubic yards 0.765 cubic meters m3
NOTE: volumes greater than 1000 L shall be shown in m3
MASS
oz ounces 28.35 grams g
lb pounds 0.454 kilograms kg
T short tons (2000 lb) 0.907 megagrams (or "metric ton") Mg (or "t")
oz ounces 28.35 grams g
TEMPERATURE (exact degrees)
oF Fahrenheit 5 (F-32)/9 Celsius oC
or (F-32)/1.8
ILLUMINATION
fc foot-candles 10.76 lux lx
fl foot-Lamberts 3.426 candela/m2 cd/m2
FORCE and PRESSURE or STRESS
lbf poundforce 4.45 newtons N
lbf/in2 poundforce per square inch 6.89 kilopascals kPa
APPROXIMATE CONVERSIONS FROM SI UNITS
Symbol When You Know Multiply By To Find Symbol
LENGTH
mm millimeters 0.039 inches in
m meters 3.28 feet ft
m meters 1.09 yards yd
km kilometers 0.621 miles mi
AREA
mm2 square millimeters 0.0016 square inches in2
m2 square meters 10.764 square feet ft2
m2 square meters 1.195 square yards yd2
ha hectares 2.47 acres ac
km2 square kilometers 0.386 square miles mi2
VOLUME
mL milliliters 0.034 fluid ounces fl oz
L liters 0.264 gallons gal
m3 cubic meters 35.314 cubic feet ft3
m3 cubic meters 1.307 cubic yards yd3
mL milliliters 0.034 fluid ounces fl oz
MASS
g grams 0.035 ounces oz
kg kilograms 2.202 pounds lb
Mg (or "t") megagrams (or "metric ton") 1.103 short tons (2000 lb) T
g grams 0.035 ounces oz
TEMPERATURE (exact degrees)
oC Celsius 1.8C+32 Fahrenheit oF
ILLUMINATION
lx lux 0.0929 foot-candles fc
cd/m2 candela/m2 0.2919 foot-Lamberts fl
FORCE and PRESSURE or STRESS
N newtons 0.225 poundforce lbf
kPa Kilopascals 0.145 poundforce per square inch lbf/in2
*SI = International System of Units. Appropriate rounding should be made to comply with Section 4 of ASTM E380. (Revised March 2003)
Acknowledgments

This report was produced for the United States Air Force (USAF) Aerospace Management
Systems Division, Air Traffic Systems Branch (AFLCMC/HBAG) by the Volpe National
Transportation Systems Center (Volpe Center) under Military Interdepartmental Purchase
Request (MIPR) agreement #F2BDDL2100G001.

The intent of this report is to provide the USAF AFLCMC/HBAG with an initial
comprehensive industry literature review and survey in support of (1) developing informed
projections of future UAS service domains and demand, and (2) recommending opportunities
for future UAS research and exploration. Generation and refinement of this report’s contents
was a joint government-industry effort, drawing on UAS subject-matter expertise from
personnel at the Volpe Center, Mosaic ATM, Inc., and Aviation Management Associates, Inc.

Version 0.1 of this report is subject to revision based upon government and industry
feedback. Any questions and/or comments attendant to this report should be submitted to
Jason Glaneuski ([email protected]) and Mark Strout ([email protected]) of the
Volpe Center’s Air Traffic Management Systems Division (RVT-73) no later than close of
business (COB) Friday, December 20, 2013.

The Volpe Center wishes to thank the USAF AFLCMC/HBAG for their continued support
towards mission-critical UAS research and analysis.
Contents
List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... iv
List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. iv
List of Abbreviations .....................................................................................................................v
Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................1
1. Background ...........................................................................................................................11
1.1 Problem Statement .................................................................................................................... 11
1.2 Historical Perspective ............................................................................................................... 11
1.3 Early Development ................................................................................................................... 11
1.4 Modern Era Development ......................................................................................................... 12
2. Methodology ..........................................................................................................................13
2.1 Technologies ............................................................................................................................. 13
2.2 Mission Needs ........................................................................................................................... 16
2.3 Economic Considerations ......................................................................................................... 17
2.4 Challenges to Market Development .......................................................................................... 17
2.5 Future Forecasts ........................................................................................................................ 17
2.6 Summary ................................................................................................................................... 18
3. Key UAS Technologies .........................................................................................................19
3.1 Airframes .................................................................................................................................. 20
3.2 Powerplants ............................................................................................................................... 28
3.2.1 Efficiency ..................................................................................................................... 28
3.2.2 Types ............................................................................................................................ 31
3.3 Communications, Command and Control ................................................................................. 42
3.3.1 Communications .......................................................................................................... 43
3.3.2 Command ..................................................................................................................... 44
3.3.3 Control ......................................................................................................................... 45
3.4 Sensors ...................................................................................................................................... 47
3.4.1 Sensors Today .............................................................................................................. 47
3.4.2 Sense and Avoid Sensors ............................................................................................. 52
3.4.3 Sensor Trends............................................................................................................... 54
UAS Service Demand 2015-2035 i
3.4.4 Constraints and Concerns for Future Growth .............................................................. 55
3.5 Information Technologies ......................................................................................................... 59
3.5.1 Trends in Information Technology .............................................................................. 60
3.5.2 Summary ...................................................................................................................... 62
4. UAS Missions ........................................................................................................................63
4.1 Users ......................................................................................................................................... 64
4.1.1 Purpose ......................................................................................................................... 64
4.1.2 Mission Scale ............................................................................................................... 67
4.1.3 Mission Control ........................................................................................................... 67
4.1.4 Operational Characteristics .......................................................................................... 68
5. Economics ..............................................................................................................................71
5.1 Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Business Model Development ........................................ 71
5.1.1 Civil Businesses ........................................................................................................... 71
5.1.2 The Business Model Canvas© ...................................................................................... 72
5.1.3 Cargo Delivery ............................................................................................................. 73
5.1.4 Police Operations ......................................................................................................... 73
5.1.5 Power Line and Pipeline Inspection............................................................................. 74
5.1.6 Agriculture ................................................................................................................... 74
5.1.7 Augmented Flight Assistance ...................................................................................... 75
5.1.8 Communications Media Relay ..................................................................................... 75
5.1.9 Specific Business Model Canvasses ............................................................................ 76
5.2 Technology Transfer ................................................................................................................. 92
5.2.1 Aviation Technology ................................................................................................... 92
5.2.2 Sensor Technology ....................................................................................................... 93
5.3 Commercialization Benefits ...................................................................................................... 94
6. Market Challenges ................................................................................................................96
6.1 Legal and Regulatory Policies and Procedures ......................................................................... 96
6.2 Social Issues .............................................................................................................................. 97
6.3 Environmental Impacts ............................................................................................................. 97
6.4 Other ......................................................................................................................................... 97
7. UAS Future Forecasts ..........................................................................................................99
7.1 Overview ................................................................................................................................... 99
7.2 Department of Defense ........................................................................................................... 105
UAS Service Demand 2015-2035 ii
7.2.1 Quantity and Types of UAS ....................................................................................... 106
7.2.2 Effects on NAS Airspace ........................................................................................... 111
7.2.3 Deployment Timelines ............................................................................................... 114
7.2.4 NAS Changes Needed ................................................................................................ 115
7.2.5 Value of UAS Products and Services ........................................................................ 117
7.3 Public Agencies Other Than DoD .......................................................................................... 118
7.3.1 Quantity and Types of UAS ....................................................................................... 118
7.3.2 Effects on NAS .......................................................................................................... 119
7.3.3 Deployment Timelines ............................................................................................... 121
7.3.4 NAS Changes Needed ................................................................................................ 122
7.3.5 Value of UAS Products and Services ........................................................................ 122
7.4 Commercial Markets ............................................................................................................... 123
7.4.1 Quantity and Type of UAS ........................................................................................ 124
7.4.2 Effects on NAS Airspace ........................................................................................... 125
7.4.3 Deployment Timelines ............................................................................................... 125
7.4.4 NAS Changes Needed ................................................................................................ 126
7.4.5 Value of UAS Products and Services ........................................................................ 126
8. Conclusions and Considerations .......................................................................................127
Bibliography ...............................................................................................................................131

UAS Service Demand 2015-2035 iii
List of Figures
Figure ES-1 - DoD UAS Forecast 2015 - 2035 ............................................................................................ 5
Figure ES-2 - DoD and Public Agency UAS Forecast 2015 - 2035 ............................................................. 6
Figure ES-3 - Total UAS Forecast 2015 - 2035 ............................................................................................ 7
Figure 2-1 - Growth of Mobile Phones ....................................................................................................... 13
Figure 2-2 - Technological Innovation Producing Long-Term Market Growth ......................................... 14
Figure 2-3 - Technology Adoption Lifecycle ............................................................................................. 16
Figure 3-1 - Composite Airframe Growth (Source: Composite Market Reports) ...................................... 21
Figure 3-2 - Efficient, Small-Scale Propulsion (ESSP) .............................................................................. 29
Figure 3-3 - Fuel Cell Efficiency ................................................................................................................ 30
Figure 3-4 - Possible UAS C3 Links ........................................................................................................... 42
Figure 7-1 - DoD Unmanned Aircraft Systems by Service ...................................................................... 107
Figure 7-2: Projection of All DoD and Public Agency UAS, 2015 to 2035 ............................................. 121

List of Tables
Table 1 - Cargo Delivery Business Model Canvas ..................................................................................... 78
Table 2 - Police Operations, Patrol Surveillance Business Model Canvas ................................................. 80
Table 3 - Police Operations, Traffic, Emergency Response and Special Events Business Model Canvas. 82
Table 4 - Power Line and Pipeline Inspection Business Model Canvas ..................................................... 84
Table 5 - Agriculture Business Model Canvas ........................................................................................... 86
Table 6 - Pilot Assistant Business Model Canvas ....................................................................................... 88
Table 7 - Stratospheric Communications Media Relay Business Model Canvas ....................................... 91
Table 8 - Notional UAS Vehicle Classification and Categorization ......................................................... 104

UAS Service Demand 2015-2035 iv
List of Abbreviations

Abbreviation Term
1090ES 1090 MHz Mode S Transponder Extend Squitter
4G Fourth Generation
AAM Air-to-Air Missile
AATD Army Aviation Applied Technology Directorate
ABSAA Airborne Sense and Avoid
AC Advisory Circular
ACAS Airborne Collision Avoidance System
ACAT Acquisition Category
ACTD Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration
ADC Analog-to-Digital Converter
ADS-B Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast
AECV All Environment Capable Variant
AEODRS Advanced Explosive Ordnance Robotic System
AFR Autonomous Flight Rules
AFS Flight Standards Service (FAA)
AGL Above Ground Level
AI Airspace Integration
AIAA American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics
AIR Aircraft Certification Service (FAA)
ALM Additive Layer Manufacturing
ALSM Airborne Laser Swath Mapping
AMA Academy of Model Aeronautics
AMRDEC Aviation and Missile Research, Development and Engineering Center
AMUST Airborne Manned/Unmanned Systems Technology
ANP Airborne Nuclear Power
APU Auxiliary Power Unit
ASIC Application Specific Integrated Circuit
ASM Air-to-Surface Missile
ASTM American Society for Testing and Materials
ASW Anti-Submarine Warfare
ATC Air Traffic Control
ATO Air Traffic Organization (FAA)
ATS Air Traffic Services
AUVSI Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International
AvGas Aviation Gasoline
BA Battlespace Awareness
BAMS Broad-Area Maritime Surveillance
BMA Business Model Archetype
C3 Communications, Command, and Control
CA Collision Avoidance
UAS Service Demand 2015-2035 v