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United States Interests and Policies in Africa Also by Karl P. Magyar CHALLENGE AND RESPONSE: Anticipating US Military Security Concerns (editor) CONFLICT, CULTURE AND HISTORY: Regional Dimensions (co-editor) GLOBAL SECURITY CONCERNS: Anticipating the Twenty-First Century (editor) THE INDIAN SOUTH AFRICANS: A Contemporary Profile (co-editor) * PEACEKEEPING IN AFRICA (editor with Earl Conteh-Morgan) PROLONGED WARS: The Post-Nuclear Challenge (co-editor) * From the same publishers United States Interests and Policies in Africa Transition to a New Era Edited by Karl P. Magyar Professor of National Security Affairs United States Air Command and Staff College Alabama rnacrnilhn * Selection, editorial matter, Preface, Introduction, Chapter 5 and Conclusion © Karl P. Magyar 2000 Chapters 1-4 © Macmillan Press Ltd 2000 Softcover reprinto f the hardcover 1st edition 2000 978-0-312-22388-5 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4LP. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. Published by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 Companies and representatives throughout the world PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St. Martin's Press, LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. Macmillan® is a registered trademark in the United States, United Kingdom and other countries. Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries. Outside North America ISBN 978-0-333-69447-3 In North America ISBN 978-1-349-62318-1 ISBN 978-1-349-62316-7 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-62316-7 This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 99-15387 Transferred to digital printing 2002 Contents Preface vii Notes on the Contributors x List ofA bbreviations xii Introduction: Africa's Transitional Role in America's Post-Cold War Era Diplomacy 1 Karl P. Magyar 1 The United States and North Africa: Sustained Strategic Interests 15 Mohamad Z. Yakan 2 Post-Cold War Era West Africa: Implications for US Foreign Policy 45 Earl Conteh-Morgan 3 Central Africa: Initiatives Deferred 71 Raymond W. Copson 4 US Policy Towards East Africa: Crisis Response amid Limited Interests 99 James E. Winkates 5 Southern Africa: US Relations in Transition 139 Karl P. Magyar Conclusion: Africa's Political and Strategic Marginalization 167 Karl P. Magyar Index 189 v Preface As each historical era collapses and before the character of a new one is identified, global relations among states, nations, cultures, and civiliza tions enter a period of intense transition. In the absence of a grand architect who would design and erect such an era single handedly, a vast global army of history scholars and analysts are yet again seeking to understand the various highly intricate dimensions of the defunct era. Recently our combined analytic efforts evidently failed once again to grasp the major underlying currents of change responsible for the demise of the Cold War era. The speed with which the Soviet Union collapsed ought to be of serious concern to professional analysts. Historians will examine the lacunae for any evidence that should have served as beacons for major, revolutionary changes that occurred. Why was this not per ceived? Other analytic specialists will scramble to grasp the nature of the newly emerging system. Will it be the great Marxist dialectical synthesis? A religious 'Kingdom of God on earth'? A global Pax Americana? The end of history? I have confidence that history will yet again demonstrate its independent power by dictating events to which the humble, but wise, will respond, and not aspire to engineer a revolutionary, handcrafted, human utopia-in pursuit of universal justice. There is irony in this situation. The Marxists had envisaged the pro letarian revolution as the medium through which the workers' van guard begins the task of cleansing the capitalist sources of men's historical abuses. For Marxists, man has the power to make the revolu tion that in turn allows the socialist man to design his own eschato logical destiny. The gods were not necessary for this and, indeed, they were also ranked among the counter-revolutionaries because the gods were perceived as allies of the entrenched capitalists who enslaved the alienated workers whose only existential purpose was to serve the degenerate and acquisitive owners of the means of production and their political running dogs. Hence the positive attitude towards the proletarian revolution. The irony emerges in the form of the western penchant for social revolutions, and in the United States for the highly regarded attitudes evinced in our management culture towards problem solvers, can-do producers, and creators of huge political and economic enterprises - all skills that are attributed rather serenely to manage ment education. However, when our managers fail, public relations vii viii Preface campaigns are invoked to undo cosmetically at least the visible damage. The damage only is addressed; rarely the cause. For the Marxists, the waning capitalists could be blamed for failures, but certainly not those in the vanguard of the proletarian revolution. In this sense, the paragon of exploitative capitalists could be considered to be methodological allies of Marxist revolutionaries in that both validated man's (society's) ability to chart its own course and destiny by the implementation of pseudo-scientific analytic devices, knowable to man. Marxists and mod ern capitalist managers were true ideological optimists. And both have been, and remain perplexed with Africa. This book concerns changing United States relations with Africa. As with many other academic topics undergoing examination for change in the present transitional period, the perceived gravity of change, if any, remains largely a judgmental exercise in subjectivity due to the inherently social nature of the inquiry. Weighing the positive against the negative factors to be judged might, presumably, be preceded by a joint methodological exercise among all participants involved in this analytic effort, yet it would not necessarily accrue objectivity to the reader. Hence my choice was to allow for individual interpretations of each of the five regions of Africa that we examined. Even the identifica tion and inclusion of states within a region posed dilemmas no doubt familiar to all Africa analysts. Does Sudan properly belong to North or East Africa? Should Mauritania be classified as a part of North or West Africa? Where do Rwanda and Burundi belong? And, does Southern Africa have 10, 11, or 13 members - as postulated by various analyses? As Editor, I provided loose guidance but I did not dictate compliance. Indeed, in this example alone, changes taking place in Africa in the post-Cold War era might soon influence arguments for new sub-regional alignments or analytic paradigms. Should Sudan undergo political and territorial fragmentation, the placement of the segments might facilitate the decision concerning their proper regional identities. Ours' are assessments based on individual evaluations, hence as Editor I did not require a common view concerning the degree of change, nor the nature of it. The participants in this analytic project are well-estab lished Africa specialists and therefore their individual attitude towards change will emerge in their presentations. We had the good fortune of convening at several professional conferences but, again, we adopted no common attitude towards the main subject of our inquiry. An imposed common framework might have encouraged great distortions in the estimate of the relevance of the five regions to the United States. We accept that we are supplying early, broad, chapter-length agendas Preface ix that present the minimal relevant factors of each region to be consid ered perhaps for longer elaborations in the future. But identifying such major factors cannot be an objective exercise. Those who are professionally concerned with the study of Africa's affairs are well familiar with the role of perceptions which has spawned the dichotomy of 'Afro-optimists' and 'Afro-pessimists'. We expect the reader will make judgments regarding our individual presentations accordingly. Anyone examining African affairs cannot escape the 'good news, bad news' dilemma. An example of this phenomenon was illus trated by President Clinton's 1998 12-day tour through Africa during which he enthused about a present-day Africa undergoing a 'renais sance', replete with high economic growth rates, stabilization, and democratization. However, shortly after that unprecedented official visit, US Commerce Secretary William Daley soberly noted that only one percent of America's exports go to Africa, and that in the last 40 years, Africa's share of world trade fell by half. Not long after Clinton's brief stop in Rwanda, mass killings started again; Ethiopia, whose Prime Minister attended the regional forum in Uganda that met with Clinton and signed measures to work towards peace, engaged in bombing several disputed positions in Eritrea a few months after that meeting; Senegal had recently been identified as resorting to torture and killings in the attempt to keep control over its secessionist province of Casamance; and most of the heads of state with which Clinton met, had been in power for a very long time, or had come to power by military take over. Ironically, it was in the notorious apartheid South Africa, in which Nelson Mandela came to power legitimately. Such are the evaluative dilemmas faced routinely by analysts of Africa's affairs. Therein lies the caution leveled at the reader not familiar with that otherwise fabulous continent. Grand judgments concerning Africa had best be avoided. As Drs Winkates, Copson, and Magyar are employed by US Govern ment agencies, we emphasize that the views presented in this volume are the private views of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official positions of our specific, or any, US Government agencies. The Editor is pleased to express his gratitude to Ms Gwen Story, Supervising Writer-Editor, and her staff, Ms Yuna Braswell, Ms Becky Bryant, and Ms Julie Hall, Editorial Assistants at Air University's Air Command and Staff College. I will forever thank Ms Annabelle Buckley, Senior Commission ing Editor at Macmillan, for her efforts on our behalf and also for her admirable patience. KARL P. MAGYAR

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