Unifying Themes in Complex Systems Volume VII Springer Complexity Springer Complexity is a publication program, cutting across all traditional disciplines of sciences as well as engineering. economics, medicine, psychology and computer sciences, which is aimed at researchers. students and practitioners working in the field of complex systems. Complex Systems are systems that comprise many interacting parts with the ability to generate a new quality of macro- scopic collective behavior through self-organization. e.g., the spontaneous fonnalion of temporal, spatial or functional structures. This recognition, that the collective behavior of the whole system cannot be simply inferred from the understanding of the behavior of the individual components, has led to various new concepts and sophisticated tools of complexity. The main concepts and tools - with sometimes overlapping contents and methodologies - are the theories of self-organization, complex systems. synergetics. dynamical systems, turbulence. catastrophes, instabilities, nonlinear- ity, stochastic processes, chaos. neural networks, cellular automata, adaptive systems, and genetic algorithms. The topics treated within Springer Complexity are as diverse as lasers or fluids in physics, machine cutting phenomena of workpieces or electric circuits with feedback in engineering, growth of crystals or pattern formation in chemistry, morphogenesis in biology, brain function in neurology, behavior of stock exchange rates in economics, or the fonnation of public opinion in sociology. All these seemingly quite different kinds of structure formation have a number of important features and underlying structures in common. These deep structural similarities can be exploited to transfer analytical methods and understanding from one field to another. The Springer Complexity program therefore seeks to foster cross-fertilization between the disciplines and a dialogue between theo- reticians and experimentalists for a deeper understanding of the general structure and behavior of complex systems. The program consists of individual books, books series such as "Springer Series in Synerget- ics", "Institute of Nonlinear Science", "Physics of Neural Networks", and "Understanding Complex Systems", as well as various journals. New England Complex Systems Institute President Yaneer Bar-Yam New England Complex Systems Institute 238 Main Street Suite 319 NECSI Cambridge, MA 02142, USA For over ten years, the New England Complex Systems Institute (NECSI) has been instrumental in the development of complex systems science and its applications. NECSI conducts research, education, knowledge dissemination, and community development around the world for the promotion of the study of complex systems and its application for the betterment of society. NECSI was founded by faculty of New England area academic institutions in 1996 to further international research and understanding of complex systems. The science of complex systems is a growing field that aims to understand how parts of a system give rise to the system's collective behaviors, and how it interacts with its environment. These questions can be studied in general, and they are also relevant to all traditional fields of science. Social systems formed (in part) out of people, the brain formed out of neu- rons, molecules formed out of atoms, and the weather formed from air flows are all examples of complex systems. The field of complex systems intersects all tradi- tional disciplines of physical, biological and social sciences, as well as engineering, management, and medicine. Advanced education in complex systems attracts pro- fessionals, as complex-systems science provides practical approaches to health care, social networks, ethnic violence, marketing, military conflict, education, systems engineering, international development and counter-terrorism. The study of complex systems is about understanding indirect effects. Problems we find difficult to solve have causes and effects that are not obviously related. Pushing on a complex system "here" often has effects "over there" because the parts are interdependent. This has become more and more apparent in our efforts to solve societal problems or avoid ecological disasters caused by our own actions. The field of complex systems provides a number of sophisticated tools, some of them conceptual, helping us think about these systems; some of them analytical, for studying these systems in greater depth; and some of them computer-based, for describing, modeling or simulating them. NECSI research develops basic concepts and formal approaches as well as their applications to real-world problems. Contributions of NECSI researchers include studies of networks, agent-based modeling, multiscale analysis and complexity, chaos and predictability, evolution, ecology, biodiversity, altruism, systems biology, cellular response, health care, systems engineering, negotation, military conflict, ethnic violence, and international development. Throughout the year, NECSI's classes, seminars, conferences and other programs assist students and professionals alike in their understanding of complex systems. Courses have been taught in Australia, Canada, China, Colombia, France, Italy, Japan, Korea, Portugal, Russia and many states of the U.S. NECSI also spon- sors postdoctoral fellows, provides research resources, and hosts the International Conference on Complex Systems as well as discussion groups and web resources. New England Complex Systems Institute Book Series Series Editor Dan Braha New England Complex Systems Institute NECSI 238 Main Street Suite 319 Cambridge, MA 02142, USA The world around us is full of the wonderful interplay of relationships and emergent behaviors. The beautiful and mysterious way that atoms form bio- logical and social systems inspires us to new efforts in science. As our society becomes more concerned with how people are connected to each other than how they work independently, so science has become interested in the nature of relationships and relatedness. Through relationships elements act together to become systems, and systems achieve function and purpose. The elements act together to become systems, and systems achieve function and purpose. The study of complex systems is remarkable in the closeness of basic ideas and practical implications. Advances in our understanding of complex sys- tems give new opportunities for insight in science and improvement of society. This is manifest in the relevance to engineering, medicine, management and education. We devote this book series to the communication of recent ad- vances and reviews of revolutionary ideas and their application to practical concerns. Unifying Themes in Complex Systems VII Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference on Complex Systems Edited by Ali Minai, Dan Braha and Yaneer Bar-Yam Ali A. Minai Univeristy of Cincinnati Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, and Computer Science P.O. Box 210030, Rhodes Hall 814 Cincinnati, OH 45221-0030, USA Email: [email protected] Dan Braha New England Complex Systems Institute 238 Main Street Suite 319 Cambridge, MA 02142, USA Email: braha@necsLedu Yaneer Bar-Yam New England Complex Systems Institute 238 Main Street Suite 319 Cambridge, MA 02142, USA Email: [email protected] This volume is part of the New England Complex Systems Institute Series on Complexity ISBN 978-3-642-18002-6 Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version. Vi olations are liable for prosecution under the German Copyright Law. Springer is a part of Springer Science+ Business Media springer. com NECSI Cambridge, Massachusetts 2012 The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific state ment, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and re ulations and therefore free for eneral use. CONTENTS - 2007 CONFERENCE Introduction III Organization iv Conference Programme vii PRESENTED PAPERS Richard M. Adler & David J. Koehn Complex Adaptive System-Based Decision Support for Enabling Organizational Change 2 Chih-Chun Chen, Sylvia B. Nagl & Christopher D. Clack Multi-Level Behaviours in Agent-Based Simulation: Colonic Crypt Cell Populations 14 Myriam Patricia Cifuentes Developing a Complex Approach to Health Phenomena 27 Roozbeh Daneshvar & Liwen Shih Virtual Spring-Based 3D Multi-Agent Group Coordination 36 Sarjoun Doumit & Ali A. Minai Exploration for Agents with Different Personalities in Unknown Environments 44 Rene Doursat T~~~~~~* M Robert A. Este The Necessity of Conceptual Skill Enhancement to Address Philosophical Challenges of New Science 68 Dene Farrell, Hiroki Sayama, Shelly D. Dionne, Francis J. Yammarino & David Sloan Wilson Evolutionary Perspective on Collective Decision Making 75 Philip V. Fellman, Jonathan B. Clemens, Roxana Wright, Jonathan Vos Post & Matthew Dadmun Disrupting Terrorist Networks - A Dynamic Fitness Landscape Approach 85 Carlos Gershenson The World as Evolving Information 100 Adorn Giffin Inferring Diversity: Life After Shannon 116 Y. Grondin, D. J. Raine & V. Norris Life at the "Edge of Chaos" in a Genetic Model 124 Ella-Mae Hubbard, Carys Siemieniuch & Murray Sinclair The Effects of Complexity on the Product-Service Shift 132 Borislav Iordanov Rapid Software Evolution 140 Valentina Ipatova, Valeria Prokhotskaya & Aida Dmitrieva Structural Changes and Adaptation of Algal Population under Different Regimens of Toxic Exposure 149 Laxmi Iyer, Ali A. Minai, Simona Doboli & Vincent R. Brown Modularity and Self-Organized Functional Brain Structures 157 Michael 1. Kuras An Introduction to Complex-System Engineering 172 Zoltan Kuscsik & Denis Horvath Statistical Properties of Agent-Based Market Area Model 188 A. J. Masys Complexity and the Social Sciences 195 D. J. Miron, 1. V. Emelyanova, G. E. Donald & G. M. Garner Agent-Based Model of Livestock Movements 205 Hannu Reittu & Ilkka Norros Random Graph Models of Communication Topologies 214 Marko A. Rodriguez, Jennifer H. Watkins, Johan Bollen & Carlos Gershenson Using RDF to Model the Structure and Process of Systems 222 Alex Ryan How Do Agents Represent? 231 Min Sun & Mirsad Hadzikadic A CAS for Finding the Best Strategy for Prisoner's Dilemma 265 Mihaela Ulieru A Complex Systems Approach to the Design and Evaluation of Holistic Security Ecosystems 274 Daniel E. Whitney Exploring Watts' Cascade Boundary 285 Index of authors 302 INTRODUCTION The mysteries of highly complex systems that have puzzled scientists for years are finally beginning to unravel thanks to new analytical and simula- tion methods. Better understanding of concepts like complexity, emergence, evolution, adaptation and self-organization have shown that seemingly unre- lated disciplines have more in common than we thought. These fundamental insights require interdisciplinary collaboration that usually does not occur between academic departments. This was the vision behind the first In- ternational Conference on Complex Systems in 1997: not just to present research, but to introduce new perspectives and foster collaborations that would yield research in the future. As more and more scientists began to realize the importance of explor- ing the unifying principles that govern all complex systems, the 2007 ICCS attracted a diverse group of participants representing a wide variety of disci- plines. Topics ranged from economics to ecology, from physics to psychology and from business to biology. Through pedagogical, breakout and poster sessions, conference attendees shared discoveries that were significant both to their particular field of interest, as well as to the general study of complex systems. These volumes contain the proceedings from that conference. Even with the seventh ICCS, the science of complex systems is still in its infancy. In order for complex-systems science to fulfill its potential to provide a unifying framework for various disciplines, it is essential to provide a standard set of conventions to facilitate communication. This is another valuable function of the conference: it allowed an opportunity to develop a common foundation and language for the study of complex systems. These efforts have produced a variety of new analytic and simulation tech- niques that have proven invaluable in the study of physical, biological and social systems. New methods of statistical analysis led to better understand- ing of polymer formation and complex fluid dynamics; further development of these methods has deepened our understanding of patterns and networks. The application of simulation techniques such as agent-based models, cellu- lar automata and Monte Carlo calculations to complex systems has increased our ability to understand and even predict behavior of systems which once seemed completely unpredictable. The concepts and tools of complex systems are of interest not only to scientists, but also to corporate managers, doctors, political scientists and policy makers. The same rules that govern neural networks apply to social or corporate networks, and professionals have started to realize how valuable these concepts are to their individual fields. The International Conferences on Complex Systems have provided the opportunity for professionals to learn the basics of complex systems and share their real-world experience in ap- plying these concepts. iii ORGANIZATION Conference Chair: Yaneer Bar-Yam - NECSI Executive Committee: Dan Braha - University of Massachusetts, Dartmouth Joel MacAuslan - Speech Technology and Applied Research Ali Minai - University of Cincinnati Hiroki Sayama - Binghamton University, SUNY Logistics: Sageet Braha Eric Downes Nina Duraiswami Luke Evans Seth Frey Debra Gorfine Konstantin Koupstov Matt Lieberman David Pooley Blake Stacey Cam Terwilliger Greg Wolfe Mark Woolsey Program Committee: Yaneer Bar-Yam - NECSI Philippe Binder - University of Hawaii, Hilo Dan Braha - University of Massachusetts, Dartmouth Irene Conrad - Texas A&M, Kingsford Fred Discenzo - Rockwell Automation Irina Ezhkova - International Institute of Applied Technologies, Brus- sels Philip Fraundorf - University of Missouri, St. Louis Carlos Gershenson - NECSI Dion Harmon - NECSI Mark Kon - Boston University Joel MacAuslan - Speech Technology and Applied Research Ed Marcus - Marcus Laboratories Ali Minai - University of Cincinnati Lael Parrott - Universite de Montreal Daniel Polani - University of Hertfordshire David Saakian - Yerevan Physics Institute iv