Understanding and Prediction: Essays in the Methodology of Social and Behavioral Theories

505 Pages·1976·15.606 MB·English

by  Stefan Nowak (auth.)

UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTION
SYNTHESE LIBRARY
MONOGRAPHS ON EPISTEMOLOGY,
LOGIC, METHODOLOGY, PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE,
SOCIOLOGY OF SCIENCE AND OF KNOWLEDGE,
AND ON THE MATHEMATICAL METHODS OF
SOCIAL AND BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES
Managing Editor:
JAAKKO HINTIKKA, Academy of Finland and Stanford University
Editors:
ROBERT S. COHEN, Boston University
DONALD DAVIDSON, Rockefeller University and Princeton University
GABRIEL NUCHELMANS, University of Leyden
WESLEY C. SALMON, University of Arizona
VOLUME 94
STEFAN NOWAK
UNDERSTANDING
AND PREDICTION
Essays in the Methodology of Social
and Behavioral Theories
D. REIDEL PUBLISHING COMPANY
DORDRECHT-HOLLAND/BOSTON-U .S.A.
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publications Data
Nowak, Stefan.
Understanding and prediction.
(Synthese library; v. 94)
Includes bibliographies and index.
1. Social sciences - Methodology.
2. Sociology - Methodology.
3. Social sciences _. Statistical methods.
1. Title.
H61.N63 300'.1'8 75-44179
ISBN-13: 978-90-277-1199-1 e-ISBN-13: 978-94-010-9930-1
DOl: 10.1007/978-94-010-9930-1
Published by D. Reidel Publishing Company,
P.O. Box 17, Dordrecht, Holland
Sold and distributed in the U.S.A., Canada, and Mexico
by D. Reidel Publishing Company, Inc.
Lincoln Building, 160 Old Derby-Street, Hingham,
Mass. 02043 U.S.A.
All Rights Reserved
Copyright © 1976 by D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, Holland
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1s t edition 1976
No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or
utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical,
including photocopying, recording or by any informational storage and
retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner
To the Memory of
STANIS-I:AW OSSOWSKI
Teacher and Friend
SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS
xv
PREFACE
I. Concepts and Indicators in Humanistic Sociology
II. Verbal Communications as Indicators of Sociological Va-
riables 73
III. Meaning and Measurement in Comparative Studies 104
IV. Comparative Social Research and Methodological Problems
of Sociological Induction 133
V. Causal Interpretation of Statistical Relationships in Social
Research 165
VI. Inductive Inconsistencies and the Problems of Probabilistic
Predictions 228
VII. Logical and Empirical Assumptions of Validity of Inductions 256
VIII. Empirical Knowledge and Social Values in the Cumulative
Development of Sociology 285
IX. Cultural Norms as Explanatory Constructs in Theories of
Social Behavior 319
X. Role and Limits of the 'Functional Approach' in Formula-
tion of Theories of Attitudes 347
XI. The Logic of Reductive Systematizations of Social and Be-
havioral Theories 376
XII. Values and Knowledge in the Theory of Education: A Pa-
radigm for an Applied Social Science 451
INDEX OF NAMES 481
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PREFACE xv
CHAPTER. 1/ CONCEPTS AND INDICATORS IN HUMANISTIC
SOCIOLOGY
1. The Problem of 'Verstehen' 1
2. Observable and Hypothetical Properties in SOciological Concepts 7
3. Concepts Defined with Humanistic Coefficient in the Language of
Sociology 11
4. Understanding Constructs in Defining the Dependent and In-
dependent Variables of Social Theories 18
5. The Validity of Introspectionist 'Self-Evidence' 26
6. Motives of Goal-Oriented Behaviors 29
7. Human Rationality as Explanatory Principle 33
8. Defining and Assessment - Two Operations Called Verstehen 42
9. Types of Indicators of Meaningful Sociological Variables 48
10. Behavioral Indicators and 'Surplus Meanings' in Behavioral
Theories 55
11. The Validity of Indicators in Empirical Social Studies 58
Notes 69
Bibliography 71
CHAPTER II / VERBAL COMMUNICATIONS AS INDICATORS OF
SOCIOLOGICAL VARIABLES
1. The Structure of the 'Communication Chain' 73
2. Two Categories of Factors Distorting the Communicative Rela-
tion 79
3. Verbal Behaviors and their Behavioral Correlates as 'Legitimate'
Objects of Social Studies 82
4. Inferences Based on Assumption of Correspondence at the Ex-
pressive Level 87
x
TABLE OF CONTENTS
5. Expressive and Other Instrumental Functions of Verbal Behavior 89
6. Problems of the Validity of Subjectively Sincere Communications 93
7. Inferences from and of Distortions of the Cognitive Relation 97
Notes 102
Bibliography 103
CHAPTER III / MEANING AND MEASUREMENT IN
COMPARATIVE STUDIES
1. Conceptual and Operational Aspects of Phenomenal and Re-
lational Comparability 104
2. Types of Relational Equivalences 112
3. Declared vs. Reconstructed Meaning of Attitudes 118
4. Ideological Connotation of Attitude Toward 'Socialism' Among
Warsaw Students - A Case Study of 'Measurement of Meaning' of
Political Attitudes 123
5. 'Marxism' and 'Socialism' - Two Variables with Similar Meaning
and Different Intensity 127
Notes 130
Bibliography 131
CHAPTER IV / COMPARATIVE SOCIAL RESEARCH AND
METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS OF SOCIOLOGICAL
INDUCTION
1. Different Aspects of Generality of Theoretical Social Propositions 133
2. Conditional Causal Relations and Their Observable Consequences 136
3. Historical and Universal Concepts and Hypotheses in Comparative
Social Research 139
4. The Strategy of Inductive Comparative Studies 142
5. The Role of Reductive Systematization of Theories in Formula-
tion and Indirect Confirmation of Hypotheses 145
6. Historical Dimension of Social Phenomena and the Problems of
Sociological Induction 147
7. The Problem of Spuriousness and the Role of Genetic Explana-
tions in Social Theory 151
TABLE OF CONTENTS XI
8. Comparative Induction and the Problem of One-Case Macro
Theories 157
Notes 162
Bibliography 164
CHAPTER V / CAUSAL INTERPRET A TION OF STATISTICAL
RELA TION SHIPS IN SOCIAL RESEARCH
1. The Problem of Causality 165
2. Typology of Causal Relations 167
3. Statistical Laws and Historical Generalizations 171
4. Statistical Relationships in Unconditional and Conditional Causal
Patterns 173
5. Statistical Relationships in Multistage Causal Chains 183
6. Relative Frequencies and Random Probabilistic Relations 186
7. Causality, Correlation and Spurious Independence 187
8. Spurious Correlations 194
9. The Test Variable as a Supplementary Factor and as an Alter-
native Cause 201
10. Some other Functions of the Test Variable 205
11. A Typology of Three-Variable Analyses 209
12. Additivity and Interaction between the Quantitative Variables 212
Notes 223
Bibliography 227
CHAPTER VI/INDUCTIVE INCONSISTENCIES AND THE
PROBLEMS OF PROBABILISTIC PREDICTIONS
1. 'Inconsistencies' Generated by Statistical Syllogism 228
2. 'Contradictions' Generated by General Conditional Laws of
Science 229
3. Probability and Randomness 231
4. The Unconditional and Conditional Probabilistic Relations 233
5. Two Kinds of Conditionality of Probabilistic Relations 235
6. Patterns of Probabilistic Predictions and the Problem of Inductive
Inconsistencies 238
XII TABLE OF CONTENTS
7. Mr. Petersen Revisited 240
8. Deriving the Probabilities for Intersections of Additive and
Interacting Causal Collectives 244
Notes 253
Bibliography 255
CHAPTER VII / LOGICAL AND EMPIRICAL ASSUMPTIONS OF
VALIDITY OF INDUCTIONS
1. The Role and Nature of Empirical Presuppositions in Inductive
Reasoning 256
2. The Assumption of Complete Uniformity within a Class of Ob-
jects or Events 261
3. The Assumption of Randomness in Statistical Induction 264
4. The Assumption of Randomness in Enumerative Induction 268
5. The Possibility of Estimating the Degree of Unconditionality of
General Causal Hypotheses 272
6. Conclusions 282
Notes 284
Bibliography 284
CHAPTER VIII / EMPIRICAL KNOWLEDGE AND SOCIAL
V ALUES IN THE CUMULA TIVE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOCIOLOGY
1. Symptoms of Crisis in Sociology 285
2. Cumulative Character of Empirically Tested Propositions and
Theories 289
3. Empirical and Normative Components in the Divergent Inter-
pretations of Findings 293
4. Normative and Empirical Assumptions of Particular 'Approaches' 299
5. Instrumental Functions of Sociology 305
6. Ideological Functions of Sociology 311
Notes 316
Bibliography 318