Uncertainty Shocks in Africa: Impact and Equilibrium Strategies for Sound Economic and Social Development PDF
Preview Uncertainty Shocks in Africa: Impact and Equilibrium Strategies for Sound Economic and Social Development
Advances in African Economic, Social and Political Development Giuseppe T. Cirella Editor Uncertainty Shocks in Africa Impact and Equilibrium Strategies for Sound Economic and Social Development Advances in African Economic, Social and Political Development SeriesEditors DierySeck,CREPOL-CenterforResearchonPoliticalEconomy,Dakar,Senegal JulietU.Elu,MorehouseCollege,Atlanta,GA,USA YawNyarko,NewYorkUniversity,NewYork,NY,USA Africa is emerging as a rapidly growing region, still facing major challenges, but withapotentialforsignificantprogress–atransformationthatnecessitatesvigorous effortsinresearchandpolicythinking.Thisbookseriesfocusesonthreeintricately related key aspects of modern-day Africa: economic, social and political develop- ment. Making use of recent theoretical and empirical advances, the series aims to provide fresh answers to Africa’s development challenges. All the socio-political dimensionsoftoday’sAfricaareincorporatedastheyunfoldandnewpolicyoptions arepresented.Theseriesaimstoprovideabroadandinteractiveforumofscienceat work for policymaking and to bring together African and international researchers and experts. The series welcomes monographs and contributed volumes for an academic and professional audience, as well as tightly edited conference proceed- ings. Relevant topics include, but are not limited to, economic policy and trade, regionalintegration,labormarketpolicies,demographicdevelopment,socialissues, politicaleconomyandpoliticalsystems,andenvironmentalandenergyissues. Alltitlesintheseriesarepeer-reviewed.ThebookseriesisindexedinSCOPUS. * * * Giuseppe T. Cirella Editor Uncertainty Shocks in Africa Impact and Equilibrium Strategies for Sound Economic and Social Development Editor GiuseppeT.Cirella FacultyofEconomics UniversityofGdansk Sopot,Poland ISSN2198-7262 ISSN2198-7270 (electronic) AdvancesinAfricanEconomic,SocialandPoliticalDevelopment ISBN978-3-031-21884-2 ISBN978-3-031-21885-9 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-21885-9 ©TheEditor(s)(ifapplicable)andTheAuthor(s),underexclusivelicensetoSpringerNatureSwitzerland AG2023 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsaresolelyandexclusivelylicensedbythePublisher,whether thewholeorpartofthematerialisconcerned,specificallytherightsoftranslation,reprinting,reuseof illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similarordissimilarmethodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped. Theuseofgeneraldescriptivenames,registerednames,trademarks,servicemarks,etc.inthispublication doesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexemptfromtherelevant protectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. The publisher, the authors, and the editorsare safeto assume that the adviceand informationin this bookarebelievedtobetrueandaccurateatthedateofpublication.Neitherthepublishernortheauthorsor theeditorsgiveawarranty,expressedorimplied,withrespecttothematerialcontainedhereinorforany errorsoromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade.Thepublisherremainsneutralwithregardtojurisdictional claimsinpublishedmapsandinstitutionalaffiliations. ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbytheregisteredcompanySpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:Gewerbestrasse11,6330Cham,Switzerland ai miei Foreword ItgivesmegreatpleasuretoacceptProf.Dr.GiuseppeT.Cirella’sinvitationtowrite this Foreword and to provide useful suggestions to better understand the scope of this book. As a welcomed addition to the Scopus-indexed Springer book series, AdvancesinAfricanEconomic,Social and Political Development,this bookspans innovative COVID-19 era findings and pieces together several important case studiesinthesciencesandsocialsciences.Sincehumansocietysurvivesfromnature andcivilizationissustainedbynaturalresourcesandenvironmentalservices,mostly provided for free, nature’s resilience, adaptability, and renewability evolve in a sustainable manner when human disturbancesdo notexceed thecarryingcapacity. Astheworldexperiencedthefirst2yearsoftheCOVID-19pandemic,itwitnessed economiesdecimatedandbroughttoastandstill.Theeconomicshocksaffectedthe mostviable,economicallyresilientcountriesandalmostparalyzedthoseoflowand medium-income. Although COVID-19 is yet to recede completely from our socie- ties,aswestillexperiencesomeflashwaves,almostallcountrieshavepassedtheir peakperiodsfacedin2020and2021.Countriesarenowtryingtorebuildeconom- icallyandsocially,inthewakeofthecolossaleconomicdownturnsexperienced,just astheywould,fromapost-disastersocioeconomicrecoveryfollowingmostnatural disasters that negatively impact and harm a community. Evidence has shown that low and medium-income countries, especially sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia, suffered huge economic woes during and directly after the pandemic, especially those that derive a large percentage of their gross domestic product from transport and tourism. This is not unconnected with the fact that apart from bad governance whichprecedesthepandemic,particularlyinAfrica,politicalcrisis,securityfragil- ity,andeconomicweaknesswerealreadypronouncedbutweremadeworsebythe adventofCOVID-19. In a corroborative contribution to post-pandemic socioeconomic recovery, this bookisacross-fertilizationofideas,models,empiricalresearch,andopinionsfrom well-rounded researchers who originate from or have extensive experience on the African continent. This book’s title, “Uncertainty shocks in Africa: Impact and equilibrium strategies for sound economic and social development”, is timely and vii viii Foreword focuses on two important interlinking parts to a prosperous post-pandemic Africa. Thefirstpartexamineshownewurbanthinkingcanengendersustainableadvance- ment, while the second comprehensively looks at how social development programmes and practices can bring post-COVID-19 community robustness for sustainable progress in Africa. Crossbreeding of ideas from experts on strategies for economic recovery from East to West Africa, how small and medium scale enterprises can survive post-COVID-19 shocks, and how strategies for building green cities and strategic urbanization combine to engender post-pandemic eco- nomicsurvivalandresilienceinAfrica,isdiscussedinagermaneandcontemporary manner.Asidefromtheastronomicalriseinintimatepartnerviolencebroughtforth byCOVID-19,thisall-importantbookalsooffersstrategiestotacklethisaswellas how modern contraceptives can be more readily available for economic and social wellbeingfromabottom-up,grassrootsperspective.Linkages among severalother aforementioned socioeconomic topics and how they can combine to help Africa achieve Agenda 2063 are brought to the fore of this book. The uncertainty shocks fromtheCOVID-19pandemiccreateddifferentsecond-momentshocksthatareboth positive and negative, warranting a clear understanding of their impact and how futurestepsshouldbeconsidered.Inconclusion,thisbookisamustreadformacro volatilityresearchersseekingrobustlygeneratedfirsthandandempiricalcorrelations forthefuturedevelopmentofAfricaandforfutureshocksshapedbytheeffectsand experiencefromtheCOVID-19crisis. DepartmentofEconomicsand PaulO.AdekolaPh.D. DevelopmentStudies,Demographyand SocialStatisticsProgram,Collegeof ManagementandSocialSciences, CovenantUniversity,Ota,Nigeria CentreforEconomicPolicyand DevelopmentResearch, CovenantUniversity, Ota,Nigeria DepartmentofLifeSciences,Research CentreforAnthropologyandHealth, UniversityofCoimbra, Coimbra,Portugal Preface “Uncertainty shocks in Africa: Impact and equilibrium strategies for sound eco- nomicandsocialdevelopment”isabookthataimstointegrateaninterdisciplinary approachtounderstandhowtobestmitigatetheCOVID-19crisisaswellasreduce future shocks to the continent. Over the last half century, uncertainty appears to noticeably increase after major economic and political shocks occurred. The vola- tility and shock experienced from COVID-19 has been worldwide. This book focuses on the African experience, i.e., specific to economic and social impacts over the last 2 years, by examining the drop and rebound effect different African countries endured during the pandemic. Core expertise integrates aspects of eco- nomics, human geography, sociology, urban planning, and development studies, using scientific methods to explain the strain on societies as well as the goals for futuresustainablepractice.Experiencefromshockscanbeusedtoreacttoacurrent situationaswellasprepareforshortages.Caseresearchexploresthefuturecarrying capacity of African communities and the economic impact caused from scarcity. This can aid in building stronger, more resilient economies with protective safe- guards.ThisbookaddstotheknowledgebaseofhowtobuildamorerobustAfrica with sustainable solutions working in tandem with vibrant and robust economies. Commonsensesocialstrategiesgohandinhandwithtrackableshockedeconomies viafirst-andsecond-momentreactions.Keytopicsfromthisbookincorporateanew urban thinking for economic revival, developing sustainable economies post- COVID-19,understandingsocialpracticesduringacrisis,anddevelopingcommu- nity robustness from the experience of shock events. Policymakers, academicians, and students wishing to advance their knowledge in African economic and social development as well as crises advancement from uncertainty shocks will find this bookparticularlyvaluable. This book pieces together connections relating to lockdown measures, crisis causation, and shock impact most countries faced dating back to 2020. Specific to Africa, it explores how countries dealt with the COVID-19 crisis and how it, i.e., case-specifically,affecteddifferentaspectsofdifferent economiesandsocialstruc- tures. Uncertainty shocks, in this setting, interrelate via an umbrella effect by ix x Preface overlaying related first- and second-moment reactions during the crisis. This book distinctivelyexplorescrisesmanagementinAfricabymakingsenseofthecauseand effectaswellasreactionaryresultsfromapre-,during,andpost-pandemicperspec- tive with the underlying goal of limiting the impact of future shocks. It tests the theoriesofimpactshocks onselectedAfrican countries that experienced economic and social decline and, in a general sense, evaluates the impact of shocks via a sustainablegrowthandchangeapproach.Itisreasonabletostate,theeconomicand socialshocksdiscussedarenotlimitedtoeconomistsandsociologists,instead,they magnify to include policymakers and everyday people. The COVID-19 era has produced an economic and social crisis that has spread throughout society with adverse effects on consumers, investors, community development, and societal wellbeing. An examination into the negative shocks on supply and demand and the left tail risk of moving forward is considered imperative for much of the continent’s economies. The impact of the first-moment shock in 2020 and the economic shutdown is assessed and raises important questions about the future. What will be the genesis and long-term impact of permanent supply and demand difficulties in different African countries? Will it take the shape of economic uncertainty, or has the COVID-19 era become a launching pad that will drive new sustainableeconomicinitiatives?Observinghowhumanbeingschangetheenviron- ment and, specifically, how population growth and urbanization negatively impact nature,recentshockedeconomiesandsocialupheavalinAfricaindicateacrossroads momentforthecontinent.Thisbookfacilitateslearningfromthecrisis’supplyand demand disruptions as well as social mishaps to better inform the economies and societies of Africa, and beyond, to take a longer view of how to protect from and prepareforfutureshocksatagenerationallevel.Thisbookisdividedintotwoparts; first, it looks at shocked economies in terms of urban thinking and sustainable advancement,andsecond,itexploresshockedsocialdevelopmentandmechanisms toimprovecommunityrobustness. PartIopenswithsevencontributionsthatexamineurbanization,macroeconom- ics, city development processes, green city strategies, and specific sectors of the economy such as finance and tourism. These contributions interconnect with the shocked economies conceptby demonstrating how the COVID-19 pandemicpara- lyzed urban centers and the mobility of people. “Urbanization Motif, COVID-19, and Economic Revival: Exploratory Research from Addis Ababa, Ethiopia” uses primaryandsecondarydatatoundertakeanempiricalexaminationofthecityscape urbanizationprocessAddisAbaba,Ethiopia,facedinthefirstyearoftheoutbreak. From an economic viewpoint, sub-city district differences are analysed using the generalized method of moments estimator, the limited information maximum like- lihood estimator, and an ordinary least squares regression model. Affected sectors include health services and tourism while information and technology, entertain- ment, and Internet-based industries fared better. The findings suggest that Addis Ababa’sCityCenterrecoveredataslowerratewhencomparedtoitsoutersub-city districts.“LessonsforSub-SaharanAfrica:UsingtheDevelopmentModelfromEast AsiainNigeria,1965-2015”isprimarilyahistoricallookathoweconomicindica- tors in East Asia could benefit sub-Saharan Africa. In search of a common
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