Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence : proceedings of the seventh conference (1991) : July 13-15, 1991 : Seventh Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, University of California at Los Angeles

447 Pages·1991·14.349 MB·English

by  Bruce D'Ambrosio, Philippe Smets, Piero Patrone Bonissone

Uncertaiinn ty
Artificial
Intelligence
Proceedionftg hseS evenCtohn fere(nc1e9 91)
Jul1y3 -151,9 91
SeventCho nferenocne
UncertaiinnAt ryt ificIinatle lligence
UniversoiftC ya lifornaitLa o sA ngeles
Editbeyd
BrucDe. D 'A mbrosio
OregoSnt atUen iversity
CorvailslO,r egon
PhilipSpmee ts
IRIDIUAn,i versLiitberd ee B ruxelles
BrusseBlesl,g ium
PierPo.B onissone
GenerEalle ctCrRiDc
SchenectaNdeyw, Y ork
MorgaKna ufmaPnunb lishers
SanM ateCoa,l ifornia
SponsorEidnigt oMri chBa.Meo lr gan
ProductEidoint oYron iOev erton
CoveDre signSear ndProap ovich
CompositToerc hniScpakelialnPygu blications
MorgaKna ufmanPnu blishIenrcs.,
Editorial Office:
292C9a mpuDs rivSeu,i t2e6 0
SanM ateoC,a liforn9i4a4 03
© 199b1yM orgaKna ufmanPnu blishIenrcs.,
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Printientd h eU niteSdta toefsA merica
Nop arotf t hipsu blicamtaiyob ne r eproducsetdor,ie nda r etriseyvsatle omr,t ransmiitnta endyf ormo rb y
anym eans-electrmoencihca,n ipchaolt,o copyriencgo,r doirnog t,h erwise-witthhepo ruito r written
peTIDissoifto hnpe u blisher.
959 49 39 29 1 5 4 3 2 1
LibraorfCy o ngreCsast aloging-in-PDuabtliais ac vaatiiloafnbo ltreh ibso ok.
LibroafrC yo ngrCeastasl ogCuaerN du mbe9r:-164 0658
ISBN1 -55860-203-8
Preface
Thicso llecotfip oanp erlsi,ki et psr edecesrseofrlse,tc htecs u ttiendgg oef r eseaorncth h ea utomatoifor ne a­
soninwgi thu ncertaiTnhtiyvs.o lumceo ntaitnhsep aperpsr esenattetd h eS eventh ConfoenrU enncceer ­
tainitnAy r tificIinatle llihgeelnodcn eJ ,u l1y3 -1159,9a 1tt heU niversoifCt ayl ifoartnL ioasA ngel(eUsC LA).
Ourp artictuhlaanrkg sot ot hem anyr eferweheosh aveb eepna rotf t her eviepwr ocefsostr h icso nference.
Everayc ceptpeadp ehra sb een revibeywa enda veraogfet hreree ferteoeg su arantteheeq ualiotfyt he
selecptaepde rWse. g ratefauclklnyo wletdhgweeo rko ft hef ollowrienvgi ewers:
A.A goginFo.B, a cchuJs.B, i ghaPm.,B onissoJn.Be r,e esMe.C, l arkGe.,C oopeBr.,D 'A mbrosiMo.D, e lgado,
D.D uboiLs.Fa, r inadse Cle roM,. FehliJn.Fog x,, R .F ungD,. G eigeRr.,G oldmaPn.,H addawyJ,.H alpernS,.
HanksD,. HeckerMm.a Hne,n rioEn.H, o rvitYz.H, s iaR,. K enneJs.K, o hlaVs.,K reniovicRh.,K rusHe.,
KyburJg.,L angK,. L askey, T.R .LL eovpietdzte M, a ntarRa.sL, o uiA,. M amdaniA,.M ayerS,.M oraHl.,
NguyenG,.P aasRs.,P atiGl.P, r ovaEn.,R uspiAn.iS ,a ffiotKt.iS ,c hiDl.lS ,c hwarRt.zS ,h achtPe.rS ,h enoy,
P.S metTs.,S traMt.tW ,e llmaNn.,W ilsoMn.,W ongR,. Y agearn,d J .Y en.
We alseox tenodu rg ratittuoMd ie keM orgaann dY oniOev ertfoont rh eeiffri icenatn dk nowledgesaubpl­e
port.
We wantt ot hantkh eC omputeSrc ienDceep artmoefnOt r egoSnt atUeni versiinCt oyr valOlriesg,o InR,I DIA
oft heU niversited eLB irburxee lilneB sr usseBlesl,g iuamn,dt heG enerEalle ctCroircp oraRtees earacnhd
DevelopmCeenntt eirnS chenectNaedwyY ,o rfokr t hfei nancainadml o raslu ppogritv etnot hoer ganizers.
Finalwleyw ,o ulldi kteoe mphasitzheaf to,tr h efir stti mien t heh istoorfty h icso nfereanbcoeua,tt hirodft he
papercso mef romE uroperaens earchTehrirsse. s uilspt a rtiaatltlryi buttoat bhleee x isteonfac l ea rgceo nsor­
tiumo fE uroperaens earcwhoerrksi nignt hed omaionf u ncertaiinnA tIy.T her esearcihnet rhseE SPRIT
BasiRce searAccht ioenn,t itDleefde asible ReaansdUo nncienrgt ainty ManSaygsetmee(mnDstR UMSh)a,v e
beeanm ajosro urocfeE uropepaanr ticipiantt hiiocsno nference.
We hopet hatth iksi nodf i nternaticoonnatlaw citll le ad ftuotu jroei rnets eaarncdhs uccesscfoullla borations
betwetehne U niteSdt ataensdE urope.
BrucDe.D 'Ambrosio PhiilppSem ets
PrograCmo -chair Program Co-chair
PierPo.B onissone
ConferenCchea ir
1
ARC Ol: AnA pplictiaono fB elieNfe tworkts o te hOilM arket
BrucAeb ramson
UniverosfSi otuyt Chaelrinfo rnia
DepartomfCe onmtp uStceire nce
LoAsn geClAe9 s0,0 89-0782
Absrtact oBfa yesian tphreo(obSrvaayab g1ie59l 4iE,td yw ards,
LindmaannSd,a va1g9e6 3Th)e.bs aes pircii pnlces
havleet doa v arioefit nyfe reanndcdee c iasligoon­
Belnieetfw oarraken s e wp,o tenitmi­ally
port,ca lnatosfks n owledgmeo-dbealsse.rd i t(hePmas1r 89l8 S,h hatce18r96 1,89 8.)
ARC1Oc, u rrentdleyv eulnoadpttem hree n t
Several bpeolnwieeetrfwfu olr ks-ybsathseaemvdse
AtlaRnitcihcCfi oemlpda( nAyR CaOn)td h e beedni scuisns eltdih tee rTahtetu wrmoeo .s dte ­
UniverosfSi otuyt hCearlni fo(rUnSiCia)s ,
veloopfte hdes syes tMeUmNIsN,( Anasdsreeenta .l .
thmeo satd vanrceepdoi rmtlpeedm entation
1897a)n Pda thfinder H(oHrevcaiknteNdzra ,mt ha­n,
oft hemsoed eilnafis n anfocrieacla sting set­
wan1i99 0)de,a l mweidtidhci aalg noAsReCsO.l
tinAgR.C lOs'u nderbleylinineegtf w ork
martkhsfie r rsetp oforrteecda stingT haipsp lication.
modetlhvsea ribaebllietesohv aevaden i m­
papoeurt ltihnmeeo sd eleioffnrtgth awte nitn to
pacotnt hcer uodieml a r.k etpAi ctorial
ARCOl,an dre porptrse liitmmsio ndaeorlftys h e
markmeotd el-deovnea l MoApCe dI I­
1990o imla rkaenitdt fosr ecoaf1s 9t90sp riFcoears .
facitleicsto anseanmsountsgh m ee mboefr s
mordee tatirleeadto mfe nmttah tiessr ei(eaA lb,r am­
thfoer ecatsetaiTmnh.gse y stfoerme casts
son Fainndii znpz rae ss).
cruodipelr e isvc iMao nte aCnaarlloyofs es
thnee trwkoS.e vedrieaffrlem notd eolfs the
oimla rkheatvb ee edne veltohpseey ds;t em's
2 DomaiSnp ecifics
abiltiob teuy p daqtueidc hkilgyh liitgsh ts
flexibility.
Modeolfts hw eo rolimdla rkceabtne b roacdllays si­
fied asi enittooh petri tmiimozonad oerlt sa rcgaepta c­
ituyt itlii(ozTnaC mUo)d e(nlEesr Mgoyd eFloriunmg
1 Introduction
1892G,at e1l89y4 P,o we19l90l.)O pmtiizamtoido­n
els, awrgheei ncehbr aasloelnedy c onomico ft heories
Belnieetfw oarrakec s l aosfms o detlhsah ta vree ­
deplerteasboluaern cde/csoa rr taeruless e,pdr irm­a
cenbtelcyoi mmepr otatnort e seaarttc hhieen rtse rsec­
ilfoyrl ontge rpmr oje(cMtraisohnaasln Nldea s bitt,
tioofan r tiifinctieall(l AiIag)ned dne ccei sion analysis
1896.S) incaei wmoa utsrod eveasl yospfot res mh ort
(AD)D.e spituen dtehreslioyrpi hnigs tbieclaiteifo n,
terfomr ecaswtecs h,ot sode e veAlRoCp1Oa saT CU
netwaorrceko sn cepstiumapAllnledyy.i reacctyecdl ic
model.
gra(pDhA Gi)nw hi(cihn) o dreesp reisneddniutva il
varlieaisbt,e cmhsa,r actoerkr nioswtlsieocdusgr,ec Tehsec, e ntdreatle rnmtoi fpn raeisic na T CUfr ame­
(iair)dc esm onsitnrfaltaueme onntcghen e o daensd, worikst hree latioofcn aslhtcieuppdlr aodutcot ion
(ifiuin)c taisosnoscw iiattthhe aedr cisn ditchaete ex ogendoeutselrycm aipnaectdih rteey s;u mletai­ng
natoufrt eh aitn flueqnucaela,isa f b ieelsni eetfw osrukor fem arkteitg hitnnidecsapstr eipscr ee ssure. Our
(Abra1m99s0oB)ne. l nieetfw woerrkoesr igiinna­clhloyoi fct eh friasm ewaso rtkhb ea soifAs R ClOs'
trodausca me idd dglreo ubnedt wpeseync holomgoidcseatllr letysh sieem sp orotfas nucbeje pcotliivtei cal
valeildi ciptraotcieoadnnum dra etsh emavtailciavdla lryi aSbilneccsae.p aicsei xtoyg enously determined
represeonfut nacteiro(tnHawsioa nratdny Md a thesoann d stheorcrmrt u odiedl e mainshd i gphrliyic ne­
198.4 A)ss ucthh,eb ye gwiinta hnu nderstaenldaisantngiad cl mocsotm plseeptceilfibyey sd e asonal
oft hhee uriasntdi cbtsih aatstye psi pcalagluelexy ­ pattesrhonrst,p rtifoecrreem c caasbnte s (omro re
per(tKsa hneSmlaonav,niT dcv ,e r1s89k2yt) h,e DlAe srse)d utcoe dfo roecfpa rsotdsu cPtrioodnu.c tion
elicitteacthintoihnqah utee losvp e rctohmebesi ea selse vienl st,au reresn s,e nstebitya l pltoyhl ei dtei­cal
(voWni ntearnfeEdld dwta 1r89d6s,a) ntdh aex iomcsi soifot nhgseo vernomfoe ipnlrt osd uccoiunngt ries;
2 Abramson
OPECP'esr sGiualmnfe mbe(rSsa Aurdaib Iiraa,no ,ii lm pofere(t O FIe ea)na dn i cnreiants hefee d eral
IraKqu,wi atU,A E, Qaantdaa rrp)ea rticiuml­agralsyot lai(xnG eiT ndtiewcsha etohrne ort ttawhxie l l
port,ba enuctsateh etye ntdob e thper oodnulcybe epr asss eGdTI. m patcrtat nestslht aea fxr odmo rlsl­a
witshu bstsalnactcaikpa alc ity.ic nlTuhsouifso ,pn e trh-egt aodl ollolna- rbsa)-rIp.rafe en rol iilm pfeoeri ts
polciaatlni alaynsadedj su stmteopn rtosd uccatli­ionm po,is tepsdr esuemeffecwdto ubled ptaloca en$ 18
culataipoprnet saob em ucmho raep proptrhiaanpt eebr a rflroeoolrni mpooritpler di Icnecsr.ie tnah see s
politmioctailvjladuytg eedm eanjdtsuatlm etnomt es­ fedegraals otlaicxno eur ladnfr goem$ .t0o$1 . 50 per
chanifocraelcplarysi ctca el culations. gal.l on
ARC1O b 'ass ew acasam soed oeftl h 1e9 o9i0ml a rket
desiignne eadr1 l99y0u sihnigs todraitcaa lt hDreomuagnhVda riablaersue s etdoc alctuoltfraaetlee
wordledmn adD.e macnadl cul(aalttei aiosnntts h ,e
thfoeu rqtuha rotf1e 9r8a n9sd u bjeascsteisvsem ents
develwoolprd,e) d ares tmroarieg htthfoasrnuw pa­rd
provbiedtewdNe oevne m1b9e8arn9 Fd e bru19a90ry.
ply calbceuuclsaaet itaohrnfeeeswr eer phenomena
Thimso dedelp,i icnFt iegdu1 rh,ea a sl reuanddye r­
thaatl laos wm aglrlo oufp demcaiksetirooas ffne c t
gonree viasniwdoi nclsol n ttiobn eur ee v.iI stce odn­
thmea rkTehtoe.n ldye mandp-escirudilietid yae nti­
taianbso 1u4t0 equmaatnwiyio ttnhis m,le a agsn d
fie,di nfa ctwa,fs eu slw itcahd iencgio,snti hoen part
some exapscr oensdsieptdri oobnaabliS elcittiioens .
oft hmea nagedrusa lo-ffi repadln ttusost wiilticthy
3e numetrhaetsees vaanrrdie albalteisIo ntis sh ips.
too il use;i rsie tsst rtiiotmc iptmwaeehcdsetp n r ices
importtosa tnrthe oswsre,t,v he atths ey stem is more
armea inntebadei l$o1w5 bpaerrar nemdla ,yr ange
thasni mpaml oyd eAlRC.O lw asd esitgofnc aeidl ­
as hiags2h M MBD( miolnbl rairepledsrya ).
itastcee ndaervieol oapnmsdei nmtu leaxteirocni ses.
Onseu ch eixdsei rscciuissnes eSde citctio onnc e4r;n s
Leveplr: evailaitsn tgao rfqptu r airctee r.
as cendaervieol ionlp aetde -August/early-September
19t9or0 e fltehcaetl teproeldir teiacloaiftlt h Pieee rs ­ Duratiloen:no gftt ihmo ev wehr itchhce u rrent
siGaunl f. prilceevh eaplsr eivlaed.
FuelS wihticnga:m ouonfit n credaesmeadn d
duteo t haed opotfio oibnlyu tiplliatnyt s
3 ModeVla riables
with dufuarln-aficCreoesnd.d itdieo­nally
peenndotnp rilceev edlu raantdi on.
Thisse cteixopnlA aRCinOsslv 'arbilaeasss, h oiwnn
Demandt:o twaolr ldde manbdy,q uarter.
Figu1ra ens2d . T hvea ricabalne bsbr oek iennt o
Functsipoencailfi wcaasdt eitoenr mined by
sevceant egaonredii egtshi tm e pertiiompdees ­. The
ana d hcoocm binoafrt eigorne tsesciho­n
riordasn bgyeq ,u aer,rt frofimr qstutha ero tf1e 9r8 9
niquessc eannaadnr ailoy sis.
throtuhgfoehu rqtuha rotf1e 99r0 . cTahtee gories,
int uranr,he i stoarninc,uta aalldx,e, m asnudp,p ly,
SupplVyar iablaersue s etdoc alcfruelweao trel d
poliatnipdcr si,c e.
supply.
HisrtiocVaalr iablreesp reevseetnnhtthas at va el ­ USP rodU:S p roduction levels.
reaodccyu rrtehdev;ia rl wueersre e trfireovtmeh de
NO Prodo:t hneorn -OPEC p(rnoodnu-cU­S)
approrpeerfrieatnec es.
tion.
C Cap:p hyspircoadlu cctaipoacni ctoyr e of
AnnuaVlar iablaersn eo etx petcoct headn ge over
OPEcCo untries.
thceo uorfts heye e ar.
DeltIa:t hceh anignie n venlteovreyl s.
NC Capp: hyspircoadlu ccatpiaoocnfni otny­ 0 Calel:eff ctdievmea ndO PfoErCo i olr, the
core cOoPuEnCt( rii.OeePs.E C,c o untries caolnOl P ECD.e finaestd o twaolrd ledm and
outstihPdeee r sGiualnf ). minouissl u ppblyoi tehdse oru rces.
NC Proda:c tpuraold ucntoino-nOc PooErfCe CoreD emande:eff ctdievmea fonrdo ifrlo m
countries. corOePE C coduentfriainstee hasdem, o unt
demanfdoremdO PECm inusa mtohuen t
WorlGdr owtwh:o rGlDdP g rowitsbh r oken
suppblyni oend- ccoournet ries.
intoc ofomupro nleensdtsesev:re lcoopuend­
tri(eLsD, CW e)tseErunr o(pWeE, U) Sa,n d CoreP roductaiomno:u pnrto dubcyet dh e
JapaCno.e fficireenltatsth ifoenu grc om­ corOeP EcCo untgriivaeescsn o, dr eem and
poneonftt hswe o relcdo ntoomt yhs ei ngle plau" sp olhietdifgcaeaoc lrt ."
worglrdo wvtahr iwaebrcleae l cublyla itne­d CapU t:d efinaestd hp ee rtcaeogncfeo OrPeE C
earre giroens.s capabceiitunysg efo drp roduction.
Suppltyo:t waolrs ludp opflc yr ude.
TaxVa riablreesl taoUt Set ax cpyTo.wl oti ypes DelYta C orPer odo:n yee ar chparnog­e
m
ofp otenrteilaellvleaygn its alraeetn ivoins ioned: duacnt biyco onOr Pe EcCo untries.
ARC01:A ppaltiicoofBn e lNieetwfo rtkos OtihMlea rke3t
An
DeltCaorQe P rodo:nq eu arcthearni gnper o­chanSgtersu.c cthuarnsaghleo sbu elfe dwa nfadr b e­
ductbiyco onOr eP EcCo untries. tweaennsd,h ocuolrdr etsofpnu odnmade ntchaaln ges
DeltSawYe etth:oe n yee acrh anignpe r ocd­uint hmea r)k.et
tioolfn i gshwtec,er tu (daenl,ol n P-EOCp ro­
Thdei scuosfvs airoinaa nbidln eflsu etnhcewenai,,sn ­
ducnt)i.o
tentdoec odn avb eryo uandd ersotftah nedm iaonrig­l
ketFo.r setcosant, h oet hhearn rde,q udiartTeah .e
PolitViaciraalb lweesr ien trotdoucc aepdt ubraes miocd wealus s etdoc retawtsoee otfss cenarios
subjemcetaisvuoerfc e osrO ePC E poliTtwiodc i­sf.fo r1 990a:b ascea saena dc onstcraapiancceaidst ey.
fereanstp ectpso loifst iittchuaeaal rtc eio onns ideTrhebeda :sce a swead se signed1 99i0an,n cdeo avrelrys
general rienltar(taIti-nrog-nuasalg nfutd lh dfee) g reaelfo lu r quoaftr htee ryTseh caero .n stcraapiance­d
ofc onflaircitfso rimnu gn hanpepwsiistm ha rksehta riet cya wsaeds e signeAdu giuns tlS/aeetpaetr elmyb er
(MrakeSthe a)rT.h etswevo a riaarbtelh eecsno m­199,0w heanfu ndamenmtaarlks eihtfo tc curirte d;
binaendmd a ppiendpt roo dutcoyt iieao"l npd o litaiscsaualmn ee effsc tbiovyec oofIt rtaa qnid Kuwaiti oil,
hedtgope r oducftaic(otPnoo"rl itics). antdh aaltol t hperro ducerastm axpirmoucdmau ­ce
paciAt rye.v ised, s nheotiwnwnF o irgku2r,weas
PriVcaeir abldeisr ercetplryet shpeern itcv ea ro­cfo nstrIutac ctceodufo.nr ht iesdt odraittcah arlo ugh
iogursa odfec sr uOdPeE,(C S abuasdkie atn)Wd T I the oeftn hde sqeurcatoneadrnp ,dr odfourceecda sts
(WeTsexta Isn termtehdbeie antcrehk,Um Sac ru)d.e fort hteh iarndfod u rth qouf1a 9r9Tt0he.erc ssae s es
werdee veltoodp eemdo ntstet hsreya stfleemx'isb ility,
OPECt:h per iocfeO PECo igli,v aesna noitt asc curRaeccyta.hlt atl h sey s'tpser mcoessing
regressiofnu-nwcetiigohnt.e d powiesr rsetsitlrtlio Mc otneCtdae r alnoa ltyhsiess ;
entpihrsaeeo fd evelompumsbetenv ti ewmeodra es
Timei:n trotdoum ceeads tuhrteer eonfd a
ap ro-oo-ffcontcheaapnsat d emonstorfp aotwieorn.
steaidneicalrsysi hnoggr eot fa scwreuedte .
SSD iffd:ie ffreincnpe r ibceet wseweenae ntd
sour Icitrms ue daes.ub rye cdao mpfolre­x4 .1B asCea se
mula.
Thbea scea foser1 990i dse scrbiytb hneeed t woofr k
WTI:p ricWeT Ioo ifsl u,b jteotc htpe o ssible
Fig1ur.Sep ecviafilcfou reh si stoarneidxc oagle nous
impsoitoifao non i ilm port fee.
variwaebrlreee st rfrioemv eatdph per osporuiractees .
Fofurr thdeert aaintldhs ae c tvuaallau sessi tgon ed
thevsaerl ieassbe,(e A braamnsFdoi nn iiznpz rae. s s)
4 Scnearios
Manyo f ptrhoeb abaislsiesstsaimnced n trse gression
weigahrtcesu rreunntdleyr arnehdva ivyeeewt t o
Thper evsieocutdsie ofinnt ehvdea riaanbidln eflsu ­
ber elde.aQ suealitaanatlioyvfseU eS ts a pxo licy,
encceasp tubryAe RCdO 'lsm odoeflt h1e99 0o il
fusewli tcahniGdnu glp,fo lihtoiwceesrcv,,e rtainly
market.r anVgaaelnsud e pdreepceinsd(eea nlcgee­
warrfaunrttd hiesrco uns.s i
braeicco,n omaentpdrr iocb,a bwielrioesm tiitct)e d
fromt hdei scustshiaeoryfrne ,o mFa isgl us'rp ei ctuUrSet apxo liioscn ye inosft iaamnnopc ret saenottf
oft hnee twtohreakyr; e neitthote hre cmeonjdtuerdlag le mveanrtiatalhbt dal oeess finti' ntdt aot a-driven
oft hdeo manioonrfp artiicnutletaromre o ssAttIr e­modeSlisn.c UeS i ttshh weeo rlladr'cgsoe nsstou fm er
searcThheearyrs he.o, w ecvreurlc, ti ihafme o diesl oialsw, e alsil t rsg elisamtp oarntoden roe fi tlsa rgest
top rodauncuyes erfeuslu Tlhtidssi. s tiincsch tairop­nr oduUcSpe orclsii,ce asan ffe ctth mea rkiesnte veral
acteroifbs etlniiecet fw onrektsws;ot rrku c(ti,u. rewe.a yFsi. rsctr,e atisanexda ctoiuollned at dos lowly
nodaensad r cdse)s crthidebo emsa wihnin,le et wodrekc ldienmianngd . USSte acxoceonsudh l,ad va de i ­
parame(tie.hreis.s ,t odraitpcara,ilp o rro babirleiictmtip eaoscn,tt hp er iocfie m pooritcleo,dn sequently
anndu merreilca tiaolnlssohpwie pcqsiu)fie cs ttioo annis n diirmepcoatncw t o rplrdi ceosnd oamneds tically
bea neswreVdi.e waendo twhaeytr,h e miold­leuplsr oduccreuddS ein.c e oicslrp uodte a prrteiy cpeis­
traitneF di gu1r ec apotnuyere eaosrft hoei mla r­cally quo(taetsdr afodoneNr dY MWETtXIh,,Ne e w
ke.t fiAx esdeo tfp aram(estueacrsths h otsheaw te YorkM ercaEnxtcihlea,e)tn hgper icdeo moefos itli c
useidno usrt udies)a ctaipmteu rfreasm ei os(f t hceei nmytperoaarrlt T ahnaecn ea.lo yfUs Sit sap xo l­
1990T)h.u s, recasfotri1 n9g9s h1to hrueel ­dmi occdyoe nls itdhepero esds iobfti wlroie tlyet vaaxnaetns :
quinroet hmionrge rtehvainea wniudnp gd atthieni gcn reiatnsh efee d egraaslo tlaiaxnn,etd h iem position
neotrwkp'asr ame(tIetur lswid.onfa, c tb,et hsiism ­of oaiinlm pofere(t aa tn$ 1fl8o oTrh)ge.e nearsa­l
plwee rtehn ee twsotrrku ccotmuprlese atteilsyfa csteosrsywm.ae tsnh tat thi enr ceagsaesdo tlaixn etw haes
Seveproatle nhtaizaayrl elanyso -taUbStl aypx o licmyo,rl ei koeftl hyte w oa,nt dh aiptfa sds,we oudled­
invenbteohrayva inoGdru ,lp fo lcist-ihaavler eacdrye tahsleei keloifh ooaiionlmd p ofere(t.N otthea t
beedne tee,dac ntadr ceu rrentrleyv i.uOs nnidcoeentr h e federalw agsia,fns a ocilctnir,ne eafo sr1te a9dx9 1
afu lslayt isnfaecttwoorryk hsabtser eudnce truirvaeesp d a,or tft h beu dgpeatc keavgeen tpuaaslislnOeyc d ­
howeuvperda,st heosub lerd e strtiopc atreadm ettoebr1e 99r0 ).
4 Abramson
Fueslw itc(hami anngga,e rdieacli astdi uoanl -fiTrheuds , cnoorodrneedssi pnfigra snttsdo e cqounadr ter
utiplliattnyotb su ronir la ther thgaansi )sn, 1a 89t9wu erradelr opapneaddc ,t nuuamlb foerrfi sr astn d
anotahreterha ga etn eerlaulddlaeyts a -mdordievlessne. c oqnuda r1t9e9rws0e rien cluSdeecdoi.ntb d e,­
This duenclimisokisoeott n h,ae ffercst tihneg margkawenit tt,hh a es msputitohntashtb e o ycoofIt rtaa nqd
is easns enmtaicarlold-yel meavdneedlc iusniiovne;Kr u­wawiotu lde effcbteai nvtdeh ,a t eevleisrney one
saslw itcthoi cnoogiui lln dc reaseb ydas e mmuacnhdt hweo rwlodu rladit sheep irro dulcetviteootln hs e ir
as2 M MBDA.R COlm'osd el ianfa cilrduledy­e mda ximpuhmy sicalS icnacpneao cnai-ltOlpyP r.Eo C­
taialneadlo yffus eislsw itcWhiitnhggo.eu ttti inntgod ucweerrsae l reaasdmsyeu dt ob ep rodutcoci an­g
spectihfitech sr,ou fts htae n aliytssh ioasitw l a rranptasc iatnyd, p trhoed ulcetvioeofnln os n -OcPoErCe
considaetpr raitcieosn$ 1bp5ee lro wb Iafr rleoclwo. u nhtarbdiee efisnx eadt9 0o%f t heciarp afecwi ty,
priacremesa intfoaria nnee xdt epnedreoidfto idm ec,h angense ewdoeeurdte sO iPEdCe'c so rCeo.rp er o­
manmya ngaewrisol plfot r o iTlh.le o wtehrpe r icdeusc t,hi oowneerwv,a psu shuepd t thcoeo mbicnae­d
antdh leo ntgheeray rm ea intatihgnere eda,tt heerp aciotfSi aeusAd ria bIiraaU,nA ,Ea ,n Qda taCra­.
demand. pacuittiytlo iinoz,ra igiinnatlrloaydsa u m ceeads ure
ofp ressuprreo duoacnn ttdih okene yt htmeoo d,e l
Poliatniaclaaylnsp der so jeacrtneie ocnesss soafrtielry
wafisx eadt1 0 ..As a urle,ts thep oeilnciatatnilar ley ­
(i.meo.rs,eu bjetchtainv ee)tc hoeniocrmo iucn ter­
simso duwladesr opfrpoemtd h nee twdoerskpt;ih tee
parAtssa . retshuealyrti e,n variabflryo mo mitted
obvivooulsa otfti hlpeio tlyis tiitcuaatlth iiemo apnc,t
techmnoidceaalln srd,e legtaott hreeod ol fea p os­
onp roduwcatassis ounm teobd e s tetahdryo ughout
treiojruid gelma ednjtuastmAeRnCtOsl.' s struc­
three osftt h yee .a( rThmeo daesls utmhenadots et­
ture ihneiltapqi euadat net itatsiuvbej-eacltbieviet­
tlemneengto tbieafottrehede oeftn hde wyoeuarlred ­
analoyfcs oirOseP EC( Persiapno lG.iuT tlhifec) s
storsei ttuhaaent ti.Feo unse wl itcwhadisr nogp ped
firssttie tnph aen allyaisyrni e sa ltihtzpa ionlgii tsi cs )
formt haen albyesciastu hspeeo ssiobfsi ulsittayi ned
really osnilganysii tafiffe ccaptnrsto ducTthiuosn,.
priucneds$e 1rp5 e r bdairsraeplpa enaUdrS te adx,
ratthhearbn e iannag d justtomp erniptco el,ii tsi cs
polwiacesyx cl(uepdrehdua nprse asboencaabiultsy e)
viewase adna djusttomO ePnEtpC r odu.cT thieo n
dindo atp peart ohl aivmkeue colhfy iamnpc btae fore
secsontde p uosbesde rttvhaoiit dsie fonytnt w iroe l­
the oef1n 99d0M .o sotft he aontahleryres measi ned
evacnhta ractoefGr uilpsfot lisic:(ts iig )ce neproa­l
ast hehyab de einnt hbea scea se.
litaimciacla abmiolnitgthc yeo re mOePEmCb ers,
an(di eia)cc ho untsrayta'icsst fwiiotnih tm sa rkeOtn peo iwnotrn toht iisn gtt hhciaostn stcraapiance­d
sha(raent dh uism,p tllicyco,im plianOcPeE Cw iitctyah is ssei gnifiocuatnsttihrldeaye n ogfpe o ssibilities
quost)Ta.h et hisrtdep pl atchesedev arioanba l etsht wa ereen visiotnhebedas ecwas hweea dnse signed.
subjective (fihvraem-opnoyi-antntosd -ts wrcaiarTcl hteie sn iptoilailat sismceeasnlsit nfa, c t, atshsautm ed
compnlciea-to-crhaemaptraienenstcgp et,li yvT)h.e thpeta tesredntu rinIgr atnh/weIa wrroa uqcl odn ­
fourstthse ppe cciofineddi tionalr elpartotbiiannbglui aelco:ifk ct oiheesas mioonGngu lcfo untwroiuelsd
the atnwtdoh fi,ef tsht empa pptehdei mn otiopl r o­letaodo verproadnuldco ptwri ioTcnhe es .p ossibility
ductaibooonvr be e lnoawt ural Thdietsmy aponefd o.fa consumewrassn oebtvo eycnco ontstiN deevr­ed.
poliatniaclayilsn iesxa anicwdsti ,l l cneerettdoa ienrltyh tehlmeeo sdswe,alfl s e xiebnloeut gobh eu pdated
ber efi,nu epddaatnecddh ,a ng(eOdn.e cshuacnhg( euq icaknlpdya inletshspelr ye)so efnin encdw ea ta.
idsi scuisnts hneeed x steo cnt)iI.ti sn cliuns iotnhe
modheolw,ee rev,s tabalc ilse"haperos l itical module"
inwthohi a clulpd atceasen a sbieil nys erted.5 Forecasts
4.2C onsatirnCeadp acCiatsye Thefi rspths aeo fA RCOld'esv elosptmreensts ed
modceoln csttir.Tou hnsey stuelmt'tiseom bajective,
Thec onstrcaaipna(ecodibr tyo yc octatsw)ea dse ­howeivste oru ,st eh emsoed etlofos r ectahsmeta r­
sigantfeedr Iirnavqao'sfKsi u owna oinAt u gu2s,t k eAtR.C O'lus n derblleyinieenftg w coarpktsiu nr­ed
199T0h.eb evhiaoofrt he maoriklfoe ltl owtihnefog r mataiboondu itr ect intaemrornteghl ea tionships
Iraiqniv aasnitdoh nse u bsewqourerlnedta citni­ovna riaaffebclettsih noegi m la rkIemtp.l iintc hiets e
dicattheaafud tn dmaentcahla nhgaoedc cu,ra rnedd dirreeclta tiloiniesnshfo irtpmisaoa bno tuhtme a r­
thaatle lx issthionrgt m-otdeewrlemsr i enn eeodf keti'nsd irreelcatt iTohntes ahsoikftp hse. forecast­
(alte assotmr ee)v i.Ts himeoo ndluaroifAt RyC Ol'isn g/cpersoseinngmgiu nsebt et oe xpltihciean tdei rect
underlying network tfahcceoi nl­irtealtaetdib oetnthsweheesixeepon sg c evhnaaornuigsaae nbsfdl;u e tsu re
strained caipssah coiiwtnFny i gn2ue.rte w orpkr ices.
Then etwtohrackto rrestpoto hncidasss i en corAploht­ouagw hi drea nogfse t atipsrtoicceaadlru er es
ratseedv easrmsapult itohnaasct t umaaldtlehya e n al(­theoreatvliaaciballAelR yCt)1Oo ,o n lys iomnpel e
yseiass tihearin tw a isn t hbeas ec asFei.r (satn,d t echnhiabqseu eefnu lilmyp lemteodn attMeeod:n te
mosotb vi)oi,uwts aldsye sisgenvemedon n tlhast eCra ralnoa lyTshiies m.p letmieoonfnMt oanCtaer lo
anwdi tthw aod ditqiuoanraotlfhe irsst odraitcaoa.nl t hnee twwoasr kfa isrtlrya igdh.tE foxrowgaer-
ARC01: AppilcatoifBo einle f NettwhoOeri kMlsa rtkoe 5t
An
nouvsa ria(brleepsr,eb syre onotnteoeddd oe rns o,d eiso (s1. 675g%e)n erpartiiectnde h s[e $ 22,$2453] range,
witnhoi ngoairsnc,)wg e rsep ecasi efiietdch oenrs tainnt [ t$h2e6 r,a$n3(g001e.] 7 5a%n1)d0i, tn h [e3$ 1$4,0]
valourea ssu ncond(iptriioponrrao)lb adbiisltirrtiay­n (g2e. 5%).
butioInnes i.t chaesrase s,i gnais nignv galletu oe
Rectahlaltt h ersees uwletrbsea soendas sumptions
ane xogevnaobruilswae as s traigrh.dtO fonrcalwela
avlaaibaltte h bee ginonf1i 99n0gT. h aec tauvaelr ­
roontoeddwe esri en sta,nn toidaetse dpoonilnyt ed to
agWeT Ip rifocrte h fier st qouf1a 99r0wt a$es2r . 170,
byr ootneodd e(si,.v ea.r,i adbilreedsce tpleyn dent
wit$h1i( noar b o1u3/to fas tanddeavrida ftrioomn )
onloyne xogevnaorbuils,ae c so)uld sbiem iilna­rly
thfoer ecmaseta Innt.h see cqounader rat,v erWaTgIe
standt.Ti haitpser ocecdounrteiu nnuteidel n ttihree
priwcas$e 1 7a.b7o6$u,3(t o orns et anddeavrida tion)
network (or,t hmeai ldt-wenorernntkoa dtseie v­ely,
fromt hfoer ecmaesatn . ATRChOulss'fo ,r ecasts
lecatste hdfoe r ecastta'rsgw eaitsn) s ta.nT thiiast ed
priotrh et oiI nrvaaqosifKi uowna (iatnt dhe en su­
assigonfma se inntv galletu oee a cvha ricaobnlset i­
infgnu damesnhttiia fnl mtahrek weetrr)ee latively
tutase si nfglulley -spseccein(fiaiera.dilev ol.a ,r iables
accura,tien.s eorTfthfi iero santn sde coqnuda rter
arien sttae)ndt;th ipear oceidgsuu raer atnott eere­d
dathao,we e,rva llouwste odr e-trhuseni mulations
minabteuecs aaeb elnieetfwi oasrD kA G( ii.cteo .n,­
fort hteh iarndd fourthT hqeuuspaetdr eatwsee rr.e
tainnocs y sc.)lM eultfuilpllye- sspceecnilafiereaiddo s
produucseidndag ta avl aaibilne J19u9l0Ty.h eayr e
toa d istriobfvu atliauocenrs o stsa rtvghaeertl i ea,b
wewlilt thhien roafpn rgoej emcatdibeoym n oss t in­
antdh uap sr obabirleipsotforirtceeacdlas lty.
dusatnrayl aytts httesi mUenfo.r tuntahtmeea lryk,e t
Relsutwse rgee nerbayMt oendt e aCnaarlolyfos etshs eh ifstheadr ply in IAruiagnquv saKtdu.ewi datW ,h en
1990n etworkasrn;eo tt hmeeya enitt chtoeomr ­ bteh e US suctcheUesn sifutNlealdty i olnesd to estab­
pletceo nocrlb uusstii vmeipl,llu ys troaftt hcielv aei lmi asneh eff cteimvbea orfIg roa aqniKd u waoiiatlni,d
thtahtse y stweomrT khsve.a riablebsyt hteea sragloeltt hpeerddro u cdeercsi tdoiec ndr eparsoed utchtei on,
forecawsetrtseh nee twosrikn'nksas m,e WlTyIo r glosbuaplpp ilcyt wuarse adlrtasetrieScdia mlullya.­
WTl(pb qyu a)rt.Te hreW Tlvpa riarbelceosg ntiizooenf s c oounrs tcraapiancceaidyst ieye ltdheed very
thpeo ssiobfai nol iiilmt pyfeo erp tl acain$n 1gfl8 o ort igfohrte csahsotiwsntn h e finalT abclo1el. u mn of
ond omeositplir cit cheeasyd; o tphtpe r iccael culated
Thec ondiutnidoenrstl hyceio nngs trcaaipnaecdi ty
forW TIi nfo fe e iimsp obsuertde ,p aop rrtio cf$e 1 8
scenaarrseiu offi cireensttlrtyi orc etmiovvvieer tually
itfh e pfeaes asinesdd ctahlec uplraiitclseee dt s hsa n
alulne critnaftryo tmh sey s;t emdetsaiimluelda tion
ore qutao$l 1 8T.hr eeo fss iemtusl waetrieo nsr un.
ansdt atiasntailcwyaeslrue esn neescsaUrnyd.ie trs
The firssttu dtsihefueetld b l a scea ssei,m ultahtei ng
assumipotnssu,p pilesyn tifirxeeladyn,d d e mainsd
netwsohrokw nFi giu1nr .Te h see cosnerdte tained
assutmove adr myo re-oirnl- ilwneiestw sho rGlDdP
thbea se acsuasmspet ibounutsp ,d atthenede twork
grwothT.h upsr,i gceense ruantdeedrs ctehn(iaasrt i o
wiatcht duaafotlar fitrhtsewt qo u arotf1e9 9r0sT. h e
leafosrtt h e neaarre efft eecrtmfii)xv eeDdle.ys pite
thisredt sitmhucelo antsetdcr aapiancceaidsut esy,­
thveo laotfis lpiotty t prhroiucgehtsoh uet a tnhdi rd
intgh nee twoofFr ikg 2u.r( eA tsh dea ta will show,
fourqtuha rotf1e 9r9As0R ,C O'clso nstcraapianceidt y
howetvhetirhs,i sreodtf s imulawatnsio ortne sa lly
forecwasetrrsee marakcacbtuletry;ha ( et rauvee)r age
neceys)Is.nea arcohft hessiem ula1t0si0co ennsa,r ios
priwceer$se2 . 63fo1rt hteh iqruda ratne$dr13 .fo9r1
wergee nerfoaret aectdha rvgaerti (aSbilemt.ui loans
thfoeu rtThec.h nivcoalla thiolweiertdv,yo ,eh si gh­
of1 0s0c enaarrnieoo rtse aaldleyq uTahtseem .a ll
ligaph ott epnrtoibafallce imn gs ytsmht.Tee h nee t­
siwzasen ecessbiyt aimtmeepndlt eaitnieoffinc iencies.
wordkiss cusspead paeilfornlc utoshnm i asr kfuent­
Manoyft hehma vael rebaedecyno rreocutcreu dr;­
damenVtoallasyt.c i aluisbteywd a fera rs, unusually
reinmtp lemeinrstu antntiieonnngt wteon tyas times
highf atrciosraksn o,dt hteerc hlfan citcoatresnt,do
qukilc.yT )hree suolftt hses siem ulaartseih oonwsn
elufdnued ameanntaallyI snae d si.s equi(loirb rated
inTa lbe1 .
da-ytramdaerd,k)fo e rtecapsrtosd ubcyAe RdC O!
Th1e 909 bcaasfosere e cianisdcta atr eedl atfliavte alruyen litkobe elu ysu e.lfI na s tabfnuldea,m ental­
markAelfotlu. r qugaernteeraravste erpdar gibece e­sb asesde tthionweger,tv, h ien formactaipotbnuy r ed
twe$e2na0 n $d2 w2i,t ahna nnuavaelr oaf$g 12e.4 .1 ARClOs'n etworakp pdetoaoemr so doeulur n der­
Th[e1$ ,8$2r1an)g e afocrc2 o4uo6nft t heed s 4c0e0­s tanodfti hneg crmuadreki enamot ai nln aemre nable
nar(i6o.s15 ,%w )itjhu sotv ehrla off t he(m5 %0). 5top rodurceilnagta icvceufolrryae tcea sts.
fallibnegt w$e1ea9nn $d12 .Th dei striobftu htei on
remai1n45is ncge nahroiweoerswv,,a fasr fr omu ni­
formO.n l3y4s cen(ar8%i.)po5 rso jepcretisaec tod r 6 Conclusions
bel$o1wa7 n,2d 3 o ft hese haicttth u$ea1 ll7el vye l;
th[e1$ 4,)r$ a1n6agcec oufonrot neld1y 1o f 4 0p0o s­ARCOilask nowlesdegsdey -stbdeaems itgohn eeldp
sibclaes( e.2s7 5.% )Thtuhpser, o baobfais liig­tnyit fhmee mboeAfrR sC Oc'osr poprlaatngenr ionugp who
icadnotw nwtarredun ndd tehrbe a scea sceo nditairoienn sv olved with forcercuaodsietl i.n g the price of
wahsi guhnllyi Okne lutyph.se i hdoewe,ert v,h earpe­ Thesy stiesbm a soenda b elnieetfw aot rykpo,ef
pearbedem otrroeo ofomrr uanwapyr i6ce7ss c.e nagrr-aphmiocdtaehllai trs apigdaliynp ionlpgau riint y
6 Abramson
I1 99Ba0s Cea s{oer ig)i 1n119a9B la0s Cea s(uep da)t CeIIodn strCaaipnaeCcdai stIey
Quarteµr µ Preisc
(}" (}"
1(.1.J99 0 20.827. 9 NA NA NA
2Q 192900. 632. 3 NA NA NA
3Q1 9920.1 234 .11 9.18 2.5 25
4Q1 9920.1 844 .4 20.79 4.4 29-31
Talbe M1e:aa nnssd t anddeavrida otfti hofoenr se cgaesntesr bayMt oendCt aer alnoa lyAsll neusm.b ienar rse
appxriomaatnqedu, o tined do llpeabrra sr rel.
both atnhDdeA r AeIs ecaormcmhu nAiRtCiOesls '.E nergMyo dleinFgor um,1 982W.o rlOdi l.
constrwuaicsnt viooalnnv tdei dm e-coAnsstu hmeiT necgh.n iRceaplo rt6 ,SE tMaFn Ufonreidrv s1i9t8y2,.
firrsetp oforrteecda ssytsitonegfim tt sy piets, u g­
gesmtaendiy n terbeassrtieicsn ega rcmho soitfs sGuaeetlsy,D, . ,1 984A. Ten-YeRaert rospective:
whichy ehttaob v eee x pdlo.Tr heuen dersloyfitnO­gP EaCn tdh Weo rlOdi Mla r.k JeoturonfEa clo ­
waree viosl utiito nagrrryoe;wss ptoionnn se ee dn.o mLiiectr at2u21r:01e0,1- 4.
Sintchefie r cstr uciaolft hssety asgtdeee mv'esl op­
menwtas t hceo nstroufac b teilnoienet fw moordke lH eckermDa.n,E, . H orviatnzd,B .N ath­
oft hdeo maint,od awthoeare skm pshiazmeodd eliwnagn i1,99 0.T owarNdo rtmiavExep eSryts tems:
ratthhearfrno e castAisan r ge.s tuhlfoetr ,e castTihPneag t hfiPnrjdoeecrTt ec.h niRceaploK rStL -90-08,
applicmaaatypi posenoasm re twt hraailv-liabseuirt­ StanUfonreidrv sity.
prisaicncgulTryha itpsea .p eri nwtaemsn odrease d a
proo-fo-fcontchneaa psatd emoantsito-rnp-oowAfe r.
HowarRd.,Aa .n dJ .E. M ahteso1n98,4 .I nflu­
gredaetoa fel v aluatbiootnhu- notdfhe er mloydi­ng
encDei agrIanRm .As ..H owaarndJd E. . Matheson,
els anfodr etchaesitnrse -etsdobt edi olnle .
editRoedraisn,og nst hPer incainpAdlp epsl ications
of DecAinsyaisloivnso ,Il I.p, a g7e12s- 7S6t2r.a te­
gic DeGcriosuipo.n s
Acknowledgements
7
KahnemDa.nP,,. S lovaincdA, . T versekdyi,­
Domaeixnp ewratpsir soev biydA eRdC OA'nst hony
tor1s9,8 2J.u gdemeUnntd Uencre rtaiHnetuyr:i s­
FniizMziak,k Haelr bePertgJe,ar q ueatntPdea ,u l
tiacnsBd i asCeasm.b rUinidvgeer Psrie.ts ys
TossetTthiec. o duen dertlhyseiy nsgt emw riwtas­
tebnyK eungN-gC.h i
MarhsallRa.,Aa .n dD .N esbti,1t9 86.F uture
WorlOdiP lr eisac nPdr oduLcetvieAolnnEs c:o nomic
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8
Pearl1,98 8.P robialbiRsetaisco innIi tnneigl­ l
AbramsBo.n1,,99 0.O nK nowlReedpgree sentaJ­.,
geSnytts emMso.r gKaanmu afnn.
tioinnB elNieetfw oPrrokcse.e doifn g3tsrhI den ­
ternaCtoineofrneaonlncI neof rmaPtroicoens asnidn g
ManageomfUe nncte ritnaK innotwyl edgSey-sB­PaosweedSl .l1,,9 90T.h Tear gCeatp acittyi-oUnt iliza
ModoefOl PEaCn tdh Dey namoiftc hsWe o rOlidl
t s.
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