Uncertainty and the Philosophy of Climate Change PDF
Preview Uncertainty and the Philosophy of Climate Change
UNCERTAINTY AND THE PHILOSOPHY OF CLIMATE CHANGE When it comes to climate change, the greatest diffi culty we face is that we do not know the likely degree of change or its cost, which means that environmental policy decisions have to be made under uncertainty. This book offers an accessible philosophical treatment of the broad range of ethical and policy challenges posed by climate change uncertainty. Drawing on both the philosophy of science and ethics, Martin Bunzl shows how tackling climate change revolves around weighing up our interests now against those of future generations, which requires that we examine our assumptions about the value of present costs versus future benefi ts. In an engaging, conversational style, Bunzl looks at questions such as our responsibility towards nonhuman life, the interests of the developing and developed worlds, and how the circumstances of poverty shape the perception of risk, ultimately developing and defending a view of humanity and its place in the world that makes sense of our duty to nature without treating it as a rights bearer. This book will be of interest to students and scholars of environmental studies, philosophy, politics and sociology, as well as policy makers. Martin Bunzl is Professor of Philosophy at Rutgers University, USA, where he founded the Rutgers Initiative on Climate and Social Policy. Martin Bunzl brings philosophy out of the ivory tower and into our everyday lives. What responsibility do I have to my future self, 20 years from now? What responsibility do we, as a society, have to future generations and the natural envi- ronment? Bunzl compellingly makes the case that an understanding of philosophic issues is central to successfully addressing the most important question of our lives: How to live well in a world where our actions can infl ict (or at least not alleviate) hardship and suffering on others? Ken Caldeira, Carnegie Institution for Science, USA Martin Bunzl takes the idea of climate change as a risk management problem seri- ously. In a book that is personal, as well as philosophically, politically, and scientifi - cally well-informed, he asks us to see the challenge of climate change in collective terms. Our future is dark, according to the author, unless we can overcome our individualism and parochial concerns. Dale Jamieson, New York University, USA UNCERTAINTY AND THE PHILOSOPHY OF CLIMATE CHANGE Martin Bunzl First published 2015 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN and by Routledge 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2015 Martin Bunzl The right of Martin Bunzl to be identifi ed as author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identifi cation and explanation without intent to infringe. British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Bunzl, Martin, author. Uncertainty and the philosophy of climate change / Martin Bunzl. p ages cm 1. Climatic changes – Philosophy. 2. Environmental policy – Forecasting. I. Title. QC903.B86 2015 363.738'7401—dc23 2014011784 ISBN: 978-1-138-79391-0 (hbk) ISBN: 978-1-138-79392-7 (pbk) ISBN: 978-1-315-76073-5 (ebk) Typeset in Bembo by Apex CoVantage, LLC For Jonah This page intentionally left blank CONTENTS List of fi gures and tables ix Preface xi Introduction 1 1 Risk and the perception of risk 14 2 The cost of extinction 27 3 The rights of those who will not be 43 4 The three tropes of climate change 58 5 The view from the inside of poverty 87 6 Social policy and rational action 98 7 The tragedy of the commons revisited 110 8 Negotiations gone bad 123 9 Going it alone 140 10 What if it is too late? 153 11 Fusion 166 Index 179 This page intentionally left blank LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES Figures P.1 Radiative Forcing xiii I.1 World Energy Consumption 1990–2035 7 I.2 Developing and Developed World Energy Consumption 1990–2035 8 I.3 World Electrical Generation 2007–2035 8 I.4 Emissions of CO by Sector and Fuel Type 9 2 I.5 Projected Global Annual Mean Surface Temperature by Scenario 10 1.1 The Perception of Hazard 18 2.1 A Normal Distribution 28 2.2 Normal and T Distributions 30 2.3 A Family of Normal Distributions 31 2.4 Projected Atmospheric CO Concentrations by Scenario 34 2 4.1 Annual CO Emissions from the Developing and Developed 2 Worlds 65 4.2 C umulative Atmospheric CO from the Developing and 2 Developed Worlds 65 Tables I.1 Projected Change in Global Mean Surface Air Temperature and Sea Level Rise 10 1.1 Willingness to Pay for Renewable Energy 20 4.1 Primary Energy in 2100 by Scenario 68 4.2 Primary Energy in 2030 by Scenario 68
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