Turkey [1992/1993

119 Pages·1993·5.295 MB·English

by  OECD

OECD
URVEY:
TURKEY
OECD
OCDE
1993
ECONOMIC
TURKEY
ORGANISATIONFORECONOMICCO-OPERATIONANDDEVELOPMENT
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC
CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Pursuant to Article 1 oftheConvention signed in Paris on I4th
December 1960, and which cameinto forceon 30th September 1961,
the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
(OECD) shallpromotepoliciesdesigned:
to achieve the highest sustainable economic growth and
employment and a rising standard ofliving in Member
countries,whilemaintainingfinancial stability, andthusto
contributetothedevelopmentoftheworldeconomy;
to contribute to sound economic expansion in Member as
well as non-membercountries in the process ofeconomic
development;and
to contribute to the expansion of world trade on a
multilateral, non-discriminatory basis in accordance with
international obligations.
The original Member countries of the OECD are Austria,
Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland,
Ireland,Italy,Luxembourg,theNetherlands,Norway,Portugal,Spain,
Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United
States. The following countries became Members subsequently
through accession at the dates indicated hereafter: Japan (28th April
1964), Finland (28th January 1969), Australia (7th June 1971) and
New Zealand (29th May 1973). The Commission of the European
Communities takes part in the work ofthe OECD (Article 13 ofthe
OECDConvention).
Publiéégalementenfrançais.
©OECD 1993
Applicationsforpermissiontoreproduceortranslate
allorpartofthispublicationshouldbemadeto:
HeadofPublicationsService,OECD
2,rueAndré-Pascal,7S775PARISCEDEX 16,France
Contents
Introduction 9
I. The economy in 1992 and near-term prospects 10
Revival of economic activity 10
Solid external positions 10
Inflation-prone economy 14
Prospects 16
II. Economic policy 19
Main features ofpublic-sector operations in 1992 19
Monetary policy 26
Recent progress in financial market reform 34
in. The labour market 36
Introduction 36
Main features of the labour market 36
Labour supply 37
Labour demand 45
Unemployment 51
Education 53
The wage formation process 60
Recent labour market issues 65
IV. Conclusions 67
Notes 72
References 74
Annexes
I. Public-sector accounts 75
IL Turkish labour market statistics 86
III. Calendar of main economic events 88
Statistical and structural annex 93
Tables
Text
1. Supply and use of resources 12
2. Balance of payments 13
3. Prices 15
4. Short-term projections 17
5. Public sector borrowing requirements 20
6. Central Bank credits 28
7. Assets and liabilities of the Central Bank 29
8. Money and credit 30
9. Restructuring the Central Bank balance sheet 31
10. Deposit interest rates 32
11. Main labour market indicators 38
12. Main demographic indicators, 1927-90 40
13. Growth and structure of the population 40
14. Male and female participation rates 42
15. Employment by sectors and status 45
16. Employment and productivity in the long run 49
17. Employment in State economic enterprises 50
18. Male and female unemployment 52
19. Indicators of the quality of labour 54
20. Educational attainment: an international comparison 56
21. Expenditure on education by international comparison 59
22. Indicators of industrial relations 60
23. Real wages and real labour cost 23
Annexes
Al. Central government budget 76
A2. Central government budget revenues 79
A3. Financial account of the State economic enterprises 82
A4. Consolidated account of extra-budgetary funds 84
Statistical and structural annex
A. National product 94
B. Supply and use of resources 95
C. Gross fixed investment by sector 96
D. Industrial production 97
E. Prices 98
F. Imports by commodities 99
G. Exports by commodities 100
H. Geographic distribution of foreign trade 101
I. Balance of payments 102
J. External debt of Turkey 103
K. Money and banking 104
L. Public sector borrowing 105
M. Central government budget 106
N. Central government budget revenues 107
O. Financial account of the State economic enterprises 108
P. Consolidated account of extra-budgetary funds 109
Q. Dollar exchange rate of the Turkish lira 110
Diagrams
Text
1. Macroeconomic performance 11
2. General government deficit and debt 21
3. Exchange rate developments 33
4. Labour force participation and unemployment 41
5. Participation rates by age groups 43
6. Unemployment by age groups 53
LU
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CQ
BASICSTATISTICS OFTURKEY
THELAND
Area(thousandsq.km) 781 Majorcities,1990(thousandinhabitants)
Agriculturalarea(thousandsq.km) 280 Istanbul 7427
Forests(thousandsq.km) 202 Ankara 3236
Izmir 2680
THEPEOPLE
Population,1991 (thousands) 57700 Civilianlabourforce,1991 (thousands) 19438
Persq.km,1991 74 Civilianemployment 17898
Annualaveragerateofchange Agriculture,forestry,fishing 8713
ofpopulation,1991 2.4 Industry 2836
Construction 905
Services 444
PRODUCTION
GNP,1991 (TLbillion) 453256 OriginofGDP,1991 (percent)
Perhead(US$) 1884 Agriculture,forestry,fishing 16.5
Grossfixedinvestment,1991 Industry 26.9
(TLbillion) 102393 Construction 5.5
PercentofGNP 22.6 Services 51.1
Perhead(US$) 42.6
THEGOVERNMENT
Publicconsumption,1991 Publicdebt,end-1991 (percentofGNP) 56.0
(percentofGNP) 15.9 Domestic 25.8
Centralgovernmentcurrentrevenue, Foreign 30.2
1991 (percentofGNP) 21.3
FOREIGNTRADE
Commodityexports,1991,fob Commodityimports,1991,cif
(percentofGNP) 12.6 (percentofGNP) 19.4
Mainexports(percentoftotalexports) Mainimports(percentoftotal imports)
Agriculture 19.8 Machineryandequipment 26.7
Mining 2.1 Transportequipment 7.4
Industry 78.1 Basemetals 11.9
Oil 11.7
Monetaryunit: Turkishlira CurrencyunitperUS$,
averageofdailyfigures:
1990 2607.62
1991 4169.85
1992 6860.59
Note: Aninternationalcomparisonofcertainbasicstatisticsisgiveninanannextable.
ThisSurveyisbasedon theSecretariat'sstudyprepared
for the annual review of Turkey by the Economic and
DevelopmentReview Committeeon8thFebruary1993.
After revisions in the light ofdiscussions during the
review, final approval ofthe Surveyforpublication was
givenbythe Committeeon22ndFebruary 1993.
The previous Survey of Turkey was issued in
July 1992.
Introduction
When the Committee examined Turkey in April 1992, the economy was
emerging from the stagnation of 1991 as political uncertainties were dissipating
and household incomes were boosted by large wage gains and increases in
agricultural revenues. Positive effects on aggregate demand notwithstanding, big
wage settlements and generous agricultural support prices fuelled inflationary
pressures both directly and indirectly through their impact on the budget deficit,
which was largely monetised. Macroeconomic policies accommodated a rise in
inflation, but with the Turkish lira allowed to depreciate in real terms the current
external balance remained roughly unchanged abstracting from the effects ofthe
Gulf War-related grants.
On presently known policy intentions of the government and a gradual
projected recovery in the world economy, output could continue to grow at
something like 4'A per cent, with the external position remaining solid. Inflation
is projected to come down modestly but only insofar as the budgetary situation is
put under tight control. The government has been marking time in putting into
place fundamental reforms of the economic system, and without these, lasting
improvement in living standards would be difficult to attain.
The present Survey first reviews the economic situation in 1992 and
presents an outlook to 1994. Chapter II discusses main features ofpolicy devel¬
opments. This is followed by an overview ofthe labour market in Turkey, which
differs from that found in most OECD countries in many respects. The Survey
concludes with a discussion of key policy issues.