Triple-Axis: China, Russia, Iran and Power Politics

256 Pages·2018·2.429 MB·English

by  Ariane Tabatabai, Dina Esfandiary

Dina Esfandiary isa2018–19InternationalSecurityProgramme
Research Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for
ScienceandInternationalAffairs;aCSSSFellowintheWarStudies
DepartmentatKing’sCollegeLondon;andanAdjunctFellowinthe
MiddleEastProgrammeattheCenterforStrategicandInternational
Studies (CSIS). Prior to joining King’s College, she was a Research
AssociateintheNon-ProliferationandDisarmamentProgrammeof
the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London,
whichshejoinedfromadisarmamentNGOinGeneva.Esfandiary’s
workhasappearedinarangeofpublications,includingForeignAffairs,
theAtlantic,theGuardian,theWashingtonPost,theNationalInterest,
InternationalAffairs,andtheWashingtonQuarterly.Sheistheco-author
ofLivingontheEdge:IranandthePracticeofNuclearHedging(2016).
ArianeTabatabaiisDirectorofCurriculumandAssistantTeaching
ProfessorofSecurityStudiesintheGeorgetownUniversitySchoolof
ForeignService;anAdjunctSeniorFellowattheCenterforaNew
AmericanSecurity(CNAS);acolumnistfortheBulletinoftheAtomic
Scientists; and a Post-doctoral Fellow (2017–18) at the Harvard
KennedySchool’sBelferCenter,whereshewaspreviouslyaStanton
NuclearSecurityFellowandanAssociate.Previously,Tabatabaialso
served as a Senior Associate in the Proliferation Prevention
Programme at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
(CSIS). Tabatabai’s work has appeared in a range of scholarly
publications, including International Security and the Journal of
StrategicStudies,aswellasingeneral-interestpublicationssuchasthe
NewYorkTimes,theFinancialTimesandForeignAffairs.Sheholdsa
PhDfromtheDepartmentofWarStudiesatKing’sCollegeLondon.
‘Thisbookisawell-researchedtreatmentofatimelytopic.Within
the context of such high-profile developments as the Syrian civil
war and the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement, the
state of relations between Iran and both Russia and China is an
importantsubjectandwillremainsointheyearsahead.Thisisa
substantively rich and analytically sensible treatment of an
important subject.’
– Paul R. Pillar, author of Why America
Misunderstands the World
‘Iran’s prized geo-strategic location, its large size and wealth in
human and natural resources make it one of the most important
states in all of Asia. This explains relentless Chinese and Russian
overturestowardTehran.Inthistimelyandinsightfulbook,Dina
EsfandiaryandArianeTabatabaishowwithsuperbdetailwhyand
how Tehran juggles its “Eastern” interests as part of its broader
foreign policy agenda.’
– Alex Vatanka, Senior Fellow at the
Middle East Institute in Washington DC and
author of Iran and Pakistan: Security, Diplomacy and
American Influence (I.B.Tauris, 2015)
TRIPLE AXIS
Iran’s Relations with Russia and China
D E A T
INA SFANDIARY AND RIANE ABATABAI
Publishedin2018by
I.B.Tauris&Co.Ltd
London•NewYork
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thisworkhasbeenassertedbytheauthorsinaccordancewiththeCopyright,Designs
andPatentsAct1988.
Allrightsreserved.Exceptforbriefquotationsinareview,thisbook,oranypart
thereof,maynotbereproduced,storedinorintroducedintoaretrievalsystem,or
transmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,
recordingorotherwise,withoutthepriorwrittenpermissionofthepublisher.
Referencestowebsiteswerecorrectatthetimeofwriting.
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ISBN: 978 1 78831 239 4
eISBN: 978 1 83860 977 1
ePDF: 978 1 83860 978 8
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CONTENTS
Acknowledgements vii
Introduction 1
The Roots of Iran’s Relations with the Eastern Powers 4
1. Iran and the World Order: Russia and China as a
Bulwark Against the West 17
Iran’s Place in the World 17
Iran’s Relations with Russia–China and Revising
Ancient Partnerships 24
Upheavals and Revolutions: How Tehran’s Interests
Aligned With Those of Beijing and Moscow 26
Russia and China in Iran’s Worldview 31
Foreign Policy Drivers 43
Conclusion 58
2. Iranian Political Relations with the Two Powers 61
The Shah and the Communists 61
The 1979 Revolution: Continuity or Change? 66
Sanctions: Looking East 74
The Thorn in Russia–Iran Relations: The Caspian 80
The Last Round of Nuclear Negotiations 83
v
TRIPLE AXIS
Russia and Iran in Syria 87
Conclusion 88
3. It’s the Economy, Stupid 91
The Shah’s Economics: Russia and China on the
Backburner 92
Revolutionary Economics and the Communist Powers 96
Iran’s International Isolation and its Effects 96
It’s All About Energy 97
Beyond Energy: Trade and Infrastructure 107
Technology and Aerospace 112
Conclusion 116
4. Defence and Security Cooperation 119
Iran’s Defence and Security Relationships Before 1979 120
Iran’s Defence and Security Relations After the
Revolution 122
The Islamic Republic’s Security Needs and Military
Industrial Complex 124
Building an Army and Overcoming the Arms Embargo 128
Iran–China Defence Cooperation 130
Iran–Russia Defence Cooperation 134
Iran–China–Russia Joint Military Ventures 146
Conclusion 151
5. Post-JCPOA: Future Prospects 153
Iran–Russia Relations Post-JCPOA: Bitter Friends
in Need 156
Iran–China Relations Post-JCPOA: Tehran, Buckle
of the Belt 166
Conclusion and Recommendation 181
Notes 193
Select Bibliography 241
Index 243
vi
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We benefitted from the support, contribution, and feedback of
several friends and colleagues in this process. In particular, we
would like to thank Aubrey Kenton Thibaut, Zach Kosbie,
Darya Dolzikova, and Henry Boyd, whose assistance and
feedback made the book possible. We would also like to thank
two anonymous reviewers, whose comments were instrumental
in helping us sharpen our argument and improve our work.
WewouldliketoexpressourgratitudetotheI.B.Tauristeamfor
their insights, flexibility, and rigorous work. Lastly, both authors
wouldliketothanktheirfamilies,partnersandfriendsforalltheir
support and help.
The authors are listed alphabetically – they both contributed
equally to this project.
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