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Trends & Possibilities PDF

26 Pages·2011·2.03 MB·English
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Trends & Possibilities in Shipping 1 CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD Panama Liberia Marshall Is Bahamas Hong Kong TTrreennddss && PPoossssiibbiilliittiieess For the Development of the Shipping Industry Martin Stopford, Managing Director Clarkson Research Ltd (cid:440)land, Nordic Shipping Policy Seminar 5th May 2011 2 Singapore Greece Malta China Cyprus CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD Martin Stopford, Aland 5th May 2011 1 Trends & Possibilities in Shipping 1. Shipping Today 2. Volatile Market; 3. Globalization; 4. Climate Change; 5. Energy Costs. I’m going Business Class next time 3 CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD • Define Marine Industry • Top 10 Flags & shipowners • European versus Asian shipping • Piracy trends HMCS Fredericton’s boarding party conducts an approach operation and boarding to investigate a suspected pirate skiff in the Gulf of Aden. 4 CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD Martin Stopford, Aland 5th May 2011 2 Trends & Possibilities in Shipping Marine related activities 2004 $ billion $ bn maritime 0 100 200 300 400 500 business Merchant Shipping Naval Shipping Turnover US$ m. (1) Share Cruise Industry US$ millions 2004 % Merchant Shipping 426,297 31% Ports Maritime Tourism 209,190 15% Total marine fisheries 206,103 15% Shipbuilding (merchant) Naval Shipping 173,891 13% Total 173,482 13% Total marine resources 116,933 8% Shipbuilding (naval) Offshore Oil & Gas 113,366 8% Seafood Processing 99,327 7% Marine Equipment Marine Equipment 90,636 7% Marine Fishing 69,631 5% Offshore Oil & Gas Shipbuilding (merchant) 46,948 3% Shipbuilding (naval) 35,898 3% Renewable Energy Ports 31,115 2% Marine Aquaculture 29,696 2% Minerals & Aggregates Cruise Industry 14,925 1% Research & Development 13,221 1% Marine Fishing Marine Services 8,507 1% Seaweed 7,448 1% Marine Aquaculture Marine IT 4,441 0% Minerals & Aggregates 3,409 0% Seaweed Marine Biotechnology 2,724 0% Ocean Survey 2,504 0% Seafood Processing Education & Training 1,911 0% Submarine Telecoms 1,401 0% Renewable Energy 1 59 0% Other Total Marine Activities 1,386,645 100% This chart uses data from Table 2.1 5 Source: Maritime Economics 3rdEd Martin Stopford, page 49 CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD Fleet of the 189 Flag States 1,200 Europe Asia Panama & Liberia USA Others 1,000 The fleet is growing very fast Other 800 Countries n o milli ns - 600 USA o oss t Panama gr & Liberia 400 Asia 200 W Europe 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 6 Source: Lloyds Register of Shipping and CRSL World Fleet Monitor CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD Martin Stopford, Aland 5th May 2011 3 Trends & Possibilities in Shipping Flag State Fleets Europe USA Asia Panama & Liberia Others 100% Other 80% Countries s n o 60% ss t USA o Panama of gr 40% & Liberia % Asia 20% W Europe 0% 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 0 0 1 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 7 Source: Lloyds Register of Shipping and CRSL World Fleet Monitor CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD TToopp TTeenn FFllaaggss ooff RReeggiissttrraattiioonn 22001111 Panama 208.20 Liberia EU Marshall Is 63.5 Asia 20% 28% Hong Kong 54.7 Oth Bahamas 52.30 S Asia Europe 1% 5% Singapore 44.70 M East Greece 41.70 1% Africa Malta 37.3 12% Americas 33% China P.R. 37.1 Cyprus 21.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 Million Gross Tonnes in Fleet 8 CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD Martin Stopford, Aland 5th May 2011 4 Trends & Possibilities in Shipping TToopp TTeenn SShhiippoowwnniinngg CCoouunnttrriieess Greece 140.20 Japan Germany 85.8 Asia China P. R. 82.8 Pacific EU 37% 37% 49.50 Norway USA 44.70 Africa, M S Korea 39.80 East, S Other Italy 32.9 Asia Europe 7% America 11% Denmark 30.5 s Taiwan 23.7 8% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 Million Gross Tonnes in Fleet 117799 ssttaatteess hhaavvee nnaattiioonnaallss wwhhoo oowwnn sshhiippss 9 CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD Comparing EU & Asian Shipping 38 40 34 EU 35 33 Asia Pacific 30 25 21 20 17 14 15 10 10 10 6 5 5 0 0 s n s s 1 e o e e rders 20 Deliveri2010 Demoliti Sal Purchas 10 O CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD Martin Stopford, Aland 5th May 2011 5 Trends & Possibilities in Shipping Ship Size Trends in 2011 Trends in average size of ships • Average size of 120 Tankers Bulker Container merchant ships wt) 100 d can change 0 0 0 • Bulk carriers and size ( 80 Container ships ship 60 e got bigger during ag ver 40 the decade A • Tanker size still 20 falling 0 1 4 7 0 3 6 9 2 5 8 1 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 1 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 11 CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD Piracy Activity 2008-2011 27 ships held 35 at end March Other incidents 2011 h Vessels captured nt 30 o Vessels held (end month) m n 25 17 s i The 27 ships currently held are unsuccessful el 20 worth US$354.8 million. Half the s attempts s value is tankers e In March v 15 of 2011 er 10 b m 1 ship u 5 N captured by pirates 0 in March 8 8 9 9 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2011 n- ul- n- ul- n- ul- n- a J a J a J a J J J J 12 CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD Martin Stopford, Aland 5th May 2011 6 Trends & Possibilities in Shipping 1. World Economy The shipping 2. Ship Demand industry is in the middle of a major market cycle charterer 3. Ship Supply s 2 e nd at han Orders Scrapping ht r d g price owner Frei s Balance Sheet 13 Driven by Cash CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD Earnings Trend 1980-2011 60 Bulk Shipping Fundamentals balance SERIOUS SURPLUS SMALL SURPLUS SMALL SHORTAGE SMALL… 50 y ((CCllaarrkksseeaa IInnddeexx iiss aa wweeiigghhtteedd 0/da 40 aabbvvuueellkrkraaeeggrrsese,, ooccfofo enenaattaarrnininniinenergrgsssshh bbiippyyss tt a&a&nn ggkkaaeessrr..ss)),, 0 0 $ x de 30 n a I e $22,800/day ks 20 r a Cl $12,000/day Here 10 $8,500/day rehD The Great 1980s Recession earsress Shipping Boom a 0 l 01234567890123456789012345678901 88888888889999999999000000000011 99999999999999999999000000000000 11111111111111111111222222222222 14 Source: Clarkson Research Services Ltd CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD Martin Stopford, Aland 5th May 2011 7 Trends & Possibilities in Shipping Sea Trade Scenarios 1950-2010 17 16 es 15 Growth of sea trade China Imports nn 14 Period %pa World less China n to 1123 1950-60 7.5% o 1961-70 9.1% billi 1101 1971-80 4.8% s 9 1981-90 0.9% rt 8 1991-00 4.1% o p 7 2001-09 2.9% m 6 i e 5 n r 4 o b 3 a e 2 s 1 0 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 FFiigguurree 88 WWoorrlldd && CChhiinnaa’’ss sseeaabboorrnnee iimmppoorrttss wwiitthh sscceennaarriiooss 15 CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD Sea Trade Scenarios 1950-2020 17 7% scenario 16 s e 15 Growth of sea trade n n 14 Period %pa n to 1123 1950-60 7.5% 4% scenario o 1961-70 9.1% billi 1101 1971-80 4.8% 3% scenario s 9 1981-90 0.9% 1% scenario rt 8 1991-00 4.1% o p 7 2001-09 2.9% m 6 i e 5 n r 4 o b 3 China Imports a e 2 World less China s 1 7% i 0 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 FFiigguurree 88 WWoorrlldd && CChhiinnaa’’ss sseeaabboorrnnee iimmppoorrttss wwiitthh sscceennaarriiooss 16 CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD Martin Stopford, Aland 5th May 2011 8 Trends & Possibilities in Shipping World Shipbuilding 35 Year Cycle 100 es 80 ri e The last shipbuilding peak v eli 60 was in 1975 when output D reached 36 million GT T G n 40 o illi Rofe csatrpuacctuitryi ng M 20 1976-86 0 Source Maritime Economics 3rdEd Martin Stopford (2009) 1902 1912 1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012 17 CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD World Shipbuilding 35 Year Cycle Looks like 2010 was the peak 100 of the shipbuilding boom with 96 m GT deliveries es 80 ri e The last shipbuilding peak v eli 60 was in 1975 when output D reached 36 million GT T G n 40 o illi Rofe csatrpuacctuitryi ng M 20 1976-86 0 Source Maritime Economics 3rdEd Martin Stopford (2009) 1902 1912 1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012 18 CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD Martin Stopford, Aland 5th May 2011 9 Trends & Possibilities in Shipping World Merchant Fleet Growth 12% 9.7% growth in 2010 a p h 10% wt o 8% r g % 6% et 1980s e nt fl 4% recession a 2% h c r e 0% m d rl -2% o W -4% 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 0 0 1 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 FFiigguurree 88 WWoorrlldd && CChhiinnaa’’ss sseeaabboorrnnee iimmppoorrttss wwiitthh sscceennaarriiooss 19 CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD Supply/Demand Balance Today Bill. Tons M. Dwt Cargo Fleet Surplus • The bars show the building up 11 volume of trade (on 1400 the right axis) and Trade scenario 10 twhoer lldin fele seht o(wons tthhee 1200 Sea Trade 2S0h0o3r-t2a0g0e8 9 left axis) 8 1000 World Fleet (Dwt) • There was a major 7 surplus after the 800 6 shipbuilding bubble .. 5 in the 1970s 600 • Today we are 4 moving from 400 3 shortage in the 2 2000s to surplus in 200 the 2010s 1 0 0 357913579135791357913579 666677777888889999900000 999999999999999999900000 111111111111111111122222 20 CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD Martin Stopford, Aland 5th May 2011 10

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May 5, 2011 bn maritime business. Marine related activities 2004 $ billion. Source: Maritime Economics 3rd Ed Martin Stopford, page 49. This chart uses
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