Trends and Outlook: The Aquatic Ecosystem Restoration Program of the US Army Corps of Engineers

180 Pages·2016·3.91 MB·English

December 2014
Trends and Outlook:
The Aquatic Ecosystem
Restoration Program of the
U. S. Army Corps of Engineers

2014-R-03
Public interest in ecological restoration has grown in response to past environmental degradation of
valued ecological services. In 1996, Congress authorized the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) to
improve environmental quality (EQ), as first defined by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA),
using aquatic ecosystem restoration and protection measures. The program grew rapidly before
recently leveling off. Despite demonstrable need at global to local levels, many forces are likely to limit
future success. This study assessed the trends and trend-shaping forces potentially affecting the success
of the Corps aquatic ecosystem restoration program, as indicated by program objective achievements.
They document widespread and profound degradation and restoration needs as well as impediments to
restoration success. Since success is difficult to assess without a clear program objective, a chronic
impediment is confusion over the program objective and its achievement. Corps policy guidance
established an objective that focuses on restoring degraded ecosystems to a less degraded more natural
condition and requires nonmonetary measurement of objective achievement. But the policy fails to
clearly explain what counts as “degraded” EQ and why nonmonetary measurement is required. The
explanation accepted here rests in the link between the protection of restored EQ in the 1996 authority
and a NEPA goal to preserve important natural and cultural aspects of national heritage. The value of
heritage is a “nonuse value” that motivates the protection of restored outputs for the benefit of future
generations. The Corps forbids monetary measurement of nonuse value because the methods are
unreliable. Based on this and other information, the program objective is to restore the Nation’s
threatened ecological heritage—expressed in its biodiversity—to a more sustainable state. Because of
the unclear statement of objective in policy guidance, restoration projects often fail to align well with
the Nation’s biodiversity-maintenance goal indicated in various laws. Objective achievement has been
subverted by diversion of scarce funding into projects that target recreational or other use
improvement. Success is also limited by inadequate technical guidance. The feasibility of the ecosystem
restoration approach itself is now widely doubted by ecologists, who recognize how intractable
environmental change has become. Because ecosystems are constantly changing in space and time, the
best that can be hoped for is to maintain national biodiversity by restoring unsustainable species
elements to a sustainable state somewhere in the changing ecosystem context. Corps culture is another
limitation. The Corps is not as sustainability oriented as it might be because of its emphasis on project
engineering, continued focus on resource use improvements, and reliance on nonfederal partners to
sustain project outputs. Budgets are tenuous and doubts in the merits of the program are growing. No
new projects have been funded since 2010. The program is most likely to survive in existing regional
water resources “rehabilitation” programs where success might still be compromised. Success could be
enhanced by clarifying the program objective and improving benefits metrics, technical guidance,
personnel skills, communication, and restoration success stories. The Corps may also be able to
influence the success of programs favoring a nationally coordinated systems approach to biodiversity
recovery and protection, more effective integration of resource management across agencies, and
increased research and development consistent with new restoration paradigms. Other trends and
forces are beyond Corps influence, but need to be recognized and managed when feasible.

Disclaimer: The contents of this report have been developed and reviewed for factual accuracy, logic and clarity
but remain the author’s interpretations and views, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U. S. Army Corps
of Engineers or the Institute for Water Resources.
Trends and Outlook:
The Aquatic Ecosystem Restoration Program of the
U. S. Army Corps of Engineers

2014-R-03

December 2014

Richard A. Cole
Environmental Planner
Institute for Water Resources,
U. S. Army Corps of Engineers

and

Emeritus Professor of Fish and Wildlife Sciences
New Mexico State University
Acknowledgements

Numerous colleagues at the USACE Institute for Water Resources contributed to the thinking
recorded here, either in review or in discussion. I would like to thank especially Dr. Norman
Starler, who recruited and guided me in this endeavor through his role as manager of the IWR
Future Directions Program. The reviews and insightful comments of Dr. Starler, Ms. Lynn
Martin, Mr. Shawn Kolmos, Dr. Paul Wagner, and Dr. Mark Sudol were useful and well
appreciated. I have also benefited particularly from past discussions with Dr. Gene Stakhiv and
Mr. Paul Scodari. They and other institute personnel generously provided support under the
direction of Mr. Robert Pietrowsky, IWR Director and Dr. Robert Brumbaugh, Institute Deputy
Director. Outside the Corps, I thank Drs. Jean O’Neil, Denise Reed, and David Zetland for their
report reviews and additional comments.

ii
Table of Contents

Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................................... ii
Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................... iii
List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ vi
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................ 1
Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 8
Study Purposes and Limitations.................................................................................................. 8
Corps Aquatic Ecosystem Restoration and Protection ............................................................... 9
Report Organization and Approach .......................................................................................... 11
Past Global and National Environmental Trends ......................................................................... 11
Overview ................................................................................................................................... 11
Environmental Impact Trends ................................................................................................... 13
Population and Environmental Impact.................................................................................. 13
Land Transformations ........................................................................................................... 14
Water Transformations ......................................................................................................... 17
Atmospheric Transformation ................................................................................................ 20
Natural Environment versus Novel Ecosystems ................................................................... 22
Environmental Management Trends ......................................................................................... 25
Environmental Awakening ................................................................................................... 25
Natural Resource Conservation ............................................................................................ 26
Environmental Movement .................................................................................................... 26
Ecosystem Restoration .......................................................................................................... 28
Past Regional Ecosystem Trends and Implications ...................................................................... 39
Overview ................................................................................................................................... 39
Saint Lawrence River and Great Lakes .................................................................................... 40
Northeastern Atlantic Coast and Rivers .................................................................................... 42
Chesapeake Bay and Tributary Rivers ...................................................................................... 44
Southeastern Atlantic Coast and Rivers .................................................................................... 45
Florida Peninsula ...................................................................................................................... 46
Eastern Gulf Coast and Rivers .................................................................................................. 48
Lower Mississippi River and Tributaries .................................................................................. 51
Missouri River Basin ................................................................................................................ 53
Upper Mississippi River Basin ................................................................................................. 54
Ohio River Basin....................................................................................................................... 57
Western Gulf Coast and Rivers................................................................................................. 59
Colorado River Basin ................................................................................................................ 60
Columbia River Basin ............................................................................................................... 62
Pacific Rivers and Coast of the Coterminous U. S. .................................................................. 63
Alaskan Rivers and Coasts........................................................................................................ 65
Great Basin Rivers .................................................................................................................... 66
Past Trends in Federal Government .............................................................................................. 67
Overview ................................................................................................................................... 67
Natural Resource Conservation ................................................................................................ 67
Environmental Protection ......................................................................................................... 70
iii
Environmental Regulation Authorities ................................................................................. 70
Sustainable Development...................................................................................................... 73
Environmental Protection Progress ....................................................................................... 74
Past Trends in the Corps Program ................................................................................................ 75
Overview ................................................................................................................................... 75
Program Authority and Regulatory Trends ............................................................................... 77
Policy Guidance Trends ............................................................................................................ 80
Program Objectives ............................................................................................................... 80
The Systems Approach ......................................................................................................... 87
Environmental Sustainability and Sustainable Development ............................................... 90
National Interest and Resource Significance ........................................................................ 91
Benefits Estimation ............................................................................................................... 93
Adaptive Management and Climate Change ........................................................................ 97
Measuring Ecosystem Restoration Program Success ........................................................... 98
Budget Trends ........................................................................................................................... 99
Overall Trends ...................................................................................................................... 99
Project Trends ..................................................................................................................... 101
Program Trends ................................................................................................................... 103
Competition for new ecosystem restoration projects .......................................................... 104
Cultural Trends ....................................................................................................................... 106
Corporate Division and Decentralization............................................................................ 107
Accountability ..................................................................................................................... 110
Diversification of Purposes, Responsibilities, and Personnel ............................................. 113
Transitioning from Project Focus to Collaborative Systems Management ........................ 115
Future Outlook ............................................................................................................................ 120
Overview ................................................................................................................................. 120
The Big Picture ....................................................................................................................... 122
General Trends and Forces ................................................................................................. 122
Public Environmental Concern and the Economy .............................................................. 123
Growth of Human Impacts.................................................................................................. 125
Public Perceptions of Environmental Issues ....................................................................... 125
Challenging Costs ............................................................................................................... 127
The Bottom Line ................................................................................................................. 127
Future Need For A Corps Ecological Restoration Program ................................................... 128
Future Corps Authority and Policy Guidance ......................................................................... 129
Authority ............................................................................................................................. 129
Policy Guidance .................................................................................................................. 131
Future Budget Expectations .................................................................................................... 132
Total Federal Budget........................................................................................................... 132
Operation & Maintenance Budget ...................................................................................... 133
Planning and Construction Budgets .................................................................................... 134
Reimbursable Funding Possibilities .................................................................................... 135
Future Corps Culture............................................................................................................... 135
Corporate Division and Decentralization............................................................................ 135
Accountability ..................................................................................................................... 139
Diversification of Purpose, Responsibility, and Personnel ................................................. 140
iv
Transition from Project Development to a Systems Approach .......................................... 143
Summary Outlook for the Corps Program .............................................................................. 147
Summary Points .......................................................................................................................... 150
References ................................................................................................................................... 153

v
List of Figures

Figure 1. Estimated past and projected world human population growth (from UNEP/GRID-
Arendal 2010 http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/world_population_development). ...................... 13

Figure 2. Net loss of land to erosion over the last 10,000 years (from Wilkinson 2005). ........... 15

Figure 3. Percentage of species federally listed as threatened and endangered by habitat
degradation from various sources of human activity in the United States (modified from Wilcove
et al. 2000). ................................................................................................................................... 17

Figure 4. Relative numbers and locations of U. S. dams and reservoirs in 1850, 1900, 1950 and
2000 (from Vince 2011)................................................................................................................ 18

Figure 5. World protein production from various sources from 1950 through 1999 (from Brown
et al. 2000). ................................................................................................................................... 19

Figure 6. Trends for atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, global carbon emissions from
fossil fuels, world gross domestic product (GDP), and world population number (from NOAA:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090421_carbon.html ). ....................................... 21

Figure 7. Global average land-ocean temperature index (Co) trend at earth’s surface for 1880 to
2010 (from NOAA http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/ ). .................................................. 22

Figure 8. The past trend in humanity’s ecological footprint based on the number of earths
needed to support the world’s population (Loh and Goldfinger 2006;(from the United Nations
Environmental Program http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/humanity-s-ecological-footprint). ...... 23

Figure 9. Trends in the Living Planet Index used to indicate the change abundances of the
worlds species in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine environments (Low et al. 2005) ((Courtesy
of United Nations Environmental Program http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/humanity-s-
ecological-footprint). The index is being used to target biodiversity protection. ......................... 24

Figure 10. Gross domestic product (GDP) and genuine progress indicator (GPI) for
sustainability from 1950 through 2002 (from Mastny et al. 2005). .............................................. 25

Figure 11. The number of world heritage sites identified since initiation in 1978. ..................... 27

Figure 12. Changes in Missouri River flow following construction of dams in the river by the
Corps (from Postel 2006). ............................................................................................................. 39

Figure 13. Numbers of plant and animal species presumed to be extinct or are possibly extinct in
each state of the United States (from Master et al. 2000). ............................................................ 41

vi
Figure 14. Number of freshwater fish and mollusks considered to be at risk of extinction
(imperiled) in major river basins of the United States (from Chaplin et al. 2000). ...................... 41

Figure 15. Watersheds that need to be protected and restored to protect the freshwater
biodiversity of the United States (from Chaplin et al 2000). ........................................................ 42

Figure 16. Annual expenditures by the Corps on protection of species listed as threatened and
endangered under the ESA (data from internal annual reports). .................................................. 63

Figure 17. Trends for listing species as threatened and endangered under the protections of the
ESA (U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service). ........................................................................................ 75

Figure 18. The Corps budget as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product and federal budget
from 1930 through 2000 (from USACE 2001). The fractions remained about the same since
until the recession of 2009 when it increased slightly. ............................................................... 100

Figure 19. The Corps Civil Works appropriations in 1995 constant dollars from 1955-2000
(from USACE 2001). The trends since 2000 have remained about the same (Congressional
Research Service 2011) except for an increase in 2006-2010 of about 30 % for construction and
about 10 % for the total. .............................................................................................................. 101

Figure 20. Balancing National Interests..................................................................................... 149

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Trends and Outlook: The Aquatic Ecosystem Restoration Program of the USACE

Executive Summary

Report Purpose and Limitations

Public interest in ecological restoration has grown in response to past environmental degradation
of valued ecological services. In 1996, Congress authorized the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers
(Corps) to improve environmental quality (EQ), as first defined by the National Environmental
Policy Act (NEPA), using aquatic ecosystem restoration and protection measures. The program
grew rapidly before recently leveling off. Despite demonstrable restoration needs, many forces
may limit future success. This study assessed the trends and trend-shaping forces potentially
affecting the success of the Corps aquatic ecosystem restoration program over the next three
decades, as indicated by program objective achievement. The trends and forces document
profound degradation and restoration needs as well as impediments to restoration success.

The report was developed primarily for use in Civil Works strategic planning. The achievement
of program-area objectives is the basis for evaluating program success and ranking projects for
investment priority. Consistent with that focus, this report gauges past and future trends and
forces influencing success based on achievement of the program-area objectives interpreted from
Corps authority and policy guidance. The main consideration is the form and amount of national
benefit intended from program investment. Future program achievement depends on being aware
of and managing to possible extent those trends and forces that impede objective achievement.

The report organization reflects trends and forces influencing the Corps at global, continental,
and regional scales; in federal government; and the Corps itself. Except for megatrends, the
analysis of trends and possibilities of future trend-shifting events relies largely on qualitative
historical assessments because of data limitations. Outlook uncertainty is unavoidable. The more
probable trends and forces are emphasized in the discussion, which focuses largely on aspects
that the Corps may be able to change or influence, as well as those aspects it cannot influence but
should consider for their effects and adaptation needs. Major points are summarized at the end.

Restoration Program Area

The objective of the Corps aquatic ecosystem restoration program area defined in its project
planning guidance must be well defined to determine success by objective achievement. In this
study, that definition is based on interpretations of Section 206 of the 1996 Water Resources
Development Act (WRDA) and the Corps project planning guidance. Section 206
programmatically authorized the Corps to carry out aquatic ecosystem restoration and protection
anywhere in the United States as long as projects cost-effectively improve environmental quality
(EQ), and are in the public interest. Projects also must be cost shared with a nonfederal sponsor.
The protection aspect of the authority sets it apart from other authorities. Ecosystem restoration
measures can be considered for problem management in any Corps project plan, and under
various authorities regardless of purpose. But Section 206 is clearly the primary authority
behind the mission described in Corps project planning policy guidance.
The protection aspects of the restoration and protection authority generally identify who shall
benefit from the project and how. The Corps planning guidance defines environmental protection
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 1 Institute for Water Resources