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S. Hue,. 103-904 TREASURY DEPARTMENT'S SPRING 1994 REPORT ON INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC AND EXCHANGE RATE POLICY Y 4. B 22/3; S.HRG. 103-904 Treasury Departnent's Spring l??*! R... njCi/LttiNG BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON AND URBAN BANKING, HOUSING, AFFiVIRS UNITED STATES SENATE ONE HUNDRED THIRD CONGRESS SECOND SESSION ON THE OMNIBUS TRADE ACT OF 1988 THAT REQUIRES THE SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY TO SUBMIT A REPORT ON INTERNATIONAL ECO- NOMIC POLICY, INCLUDING F:XCHANGE RATE POLICY, AND TO IDEN- TIFY IN EACH REPORT COUNTRIES THAT MANIPUI^TE THEIR EX- CHANGE RATES TO GAIN UNFAIR TRADE ADVANTAGES WITH THE UNITED STATES JULY 21, 1994 Printed for the use of the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs U.S. GOVERNME.NT PRINTING OKKICK ' ; 86-562CC WASHINGTON : 1994 ¥^ . ForsalebytheU.S.GovernmentPrintingOffice SuperintendentofDocuments,CongressionalSalesOffice,Washington,DC 20402 ISBN 0-16-047003-X r\ / S. Hrg. 108-904 vN ' TREASURY DEPARTMENT'S SPRING 1994 REPORT ON INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC AND EXCHANGE RATE POLICY Y 4. B 22/3; S. HRG. 103-904 Treasury Departnent's Spring 1994 R... BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON AND URBANAFFAIRS BANKING, HOUSING, UNITED STATES SENATE ONE HUNDRED THIRD CONGRESS SECOND SESSION ON THE OMNIBUS TRADE ACT OF 1988 THAT REQUIRES THE SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY TO SUBMIT A REPORT ON INTERNATIONAL ECO- NOMIC POLICY, INCLUDING EXCHANGE RATE POLICY, AND TO IDEN- TIFY IN EACH REPORT COUNTRIES THAT MANIPUIATE THEIR EX- CHANGE RATES TO GAIN UNFAIR TRADE ADVANTAGES WITH THE UNITED STATES JULY 21, 1994 Printed for the use of the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs V U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OK^•ICE 8&-562CC WASHINGTON : 1994 /j -'^"- _; ForsalebytheU.S.GovernmentPrintingOffice SuperintendentofDocuments,CongressionalSalesOffice.Washington.DC 20402 ISBN 0-16-047003-X COMMITTEE ON BANKING, HOUSING, AND URBAN AFFAIRS DONALD W. RIEGLE, JR., Michigan, Chairman PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland ALFONSE M. D'AMATO, New York CHRISTOPHER J. DODD, Connecticut PHIL GRAMM, Texas JIM SASSER, Tennessee CHRISTOPHER S. BOND, Missouri RICHARD C. SHELBY, Alabama CONNIE MACK, Florida JOHN F. KERRY, Massachusetts LAUCH FAIRCLOTH, North Carolina RICHARD H. BRYAN, Nevada ROBERT F. BENNETT, Utah BARBARA BOXER. California WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR., Delaware BEN NIGHTHORSE CAMPBELL, Colorado PETE V. DOMENICI. New Mexico CAROL MOSELEY-BRAUN, Illinois PATTY MURRAY, Washington Steven B. Harris, StaffDirector and ChiefCounsel Howard A. MENELL, Republican StaffDirector Chuck MarR, Economist Patrick A. MullOY, Senior Counsel/International Affairs Adviser Martin J. Gruenberg, Counsel John S. Gorman, Republican Counsel Wayne A. Abernathy, Republican Economist Edward M. Malan, Editor (II) CONTENTS THURSDAY, JULY 21, 1994 I'age Opening statement ofChairman Riegle 1 Opening statements, comments, or prepared statements of: SenatorSarbanes 3 Senator Bond 5 Senator Domenici 6 Senator D'Amato 30 WITNESS I^awrence Summers, Under Secretary for International Affairs, Department ofthe Treasury, Washington, DC 8 Prepared statement 30 Naples Hlconomic Summit 30 Growth Strategy Beginningto Pay Off 30 Foreign p]xchange Markets 31 North American Financial Group 32 China, Korea, andTaiwan 33 Additional Matkkial Suppmkd for the Record Departmentofthe Treasury Interim Report to Congress 35 Part I: Summary and Conclusions 36 Part II: Global Economic Developments 38 A. F^conomic Situation in the G-7 Countries 38 B. Developments in the Foreign Exchange Market 43 C. Balance-of-Payments Developments 50 Part III: Actions Under Section 3004 55 Korea and Taiwan 55 China 56 Appendix: Text of Sections 3004-3006 of the Omnibus Trade and Com- petitiveness Act of 1988 62 (III) TREASURY DEPARTMENT'S SPRING 1994 REPORT ON INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC AND EXCHANGE RATE POLICY THURSDAY, JULY 21, 1994 U.S. Senate, Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, Washington, DC. The Committee met at 10:35 a.m., in room SD-538 of the Dirk- sen Senate Office Building, Senator Donald W. Riegle, Jr. (Chair- man ofthe Committee) presiding. OPENING STATEMENT OF CHAIRMAN DONALD W. RIEGLE, JR. The Chairman. The Committee will come to order. I want to wel- come all those in attendance this morning. Let me describe the focus of today's hearing and the purpose of having our witness before us today. Under provisions of the Omnibus Trade Act of 1988, which were drafted by this Committee, the Secretary of the Treasury is required to submit to this Committee eacn 6 months a report on international economic policy, including exchange rate policy. We drafted these provisions to make sure that the Executive Branch makes the achievement of a healthy balance of trade a top priority item in our international economic negotiations. We also asked the Treasury Department to identify in each report those countries that manipulate their exchange rates to gain unfair trade advantages with the United States. Obviously, those unfair trade advantages in that area hurt our country. They cause higher unemployment in the United States, and they do economic damage to America. There has been much attention in the press in recent months about the decline of the dollar against the Japanese yen and what is causing this to happen. Some have speculated that it is a con- cern about potential future inflation that has caused the dollar to decline and that the cure is for the Fed to raise interest rates. I don't accept that notion. Some put that forward, but I would say that there is scant evidence of higher inflation and I think higher interest rates at this time, further upward adjustments, would run a great risk ofdamaging our economic recovery. I think today's report which is being presented confirms what is, in fact, the correct explanation for the dollar's decline against the yen. The report suggests that Japan will have an overall global trade surplus of over $130 billion this year. Of that $130 billion global trade surplus, some $60 billion will be with the United (1) States. There's really no excuse for that and it's enormously dam- aging to our country in many different ways. These sorts of trade figures which are, I think, a part of a con- certed, long-term, national strategy by Japan, are totally unacceptable, and I think they make it crystal clear that Japan is continu- ing to operate its economy in a manner that is detrimental to the world's trading system. It is an unacceptable exploitation and it goes on and on and on. In a recent Washington Post article on the dollar's decline against the yen, Clyde Prestowitz said the heart of the problem comes from the fact that, and I quote: Japan wants to export without importing. It views a trade surplus as a sign of national strength. That, said another way, in my own words, is precisely what we have seen over a long period oftime, and that is the Japanese want access to our market and flood large amounts of their production in here and through a variety of devices, work very skillfully and steadily to make sure that we don't sell a corresponding amount of goods in Japan. The fact is, that on a $60 billion a year annual deficit basis, that's $5 billion a month leaving the United States and going to Japan. There's no excuse for it. It's really an outrageous situation and it goes on year after year. The Japanese government, with all the instability and the tur- moil and the bureaucrats and the manipulative trading practices, continue in this pattern, to the great detriment ofthis country. Now, the fact is, when Japan runs huge trade surpluses with us, as it does, it collects a large amount of dollars that it does not then use to buy American imports. A decline ofthe dollar versus the yen reflects this reality. In fact, Robert Samuelson stated as much in an article in yesterday's Washington Post, and I quote him. He said: It represents a harshjudgment by global money managers that the Japanese can- not correct their big trade imbalance themselves and only large excnange rate changes will do thejob. In fact. Dr. Summers makes much the same point on page 5 of his testimony, where he states today: The perception that the new government ofJapan might be less able to make substantial policy changes than its predecessorhas fueled speculation that a rise in the yen will be required to efTect the necessary external adjustment. A second highly disturbing aspect of today's Treasury report is the fact that, once again, for the third straight year, China is iden- tified as manipulating its currency to gain trade advantage. In 1991, China's trade surplus with the United States was $12.7 billion. The next year it jumped from that level up to $18.3 billion. The year after that it jumped again to $22.8 billion. This year, it's expected to exceed $27 billion, all ofthis occurring while China has been manipulating its currency in order to capture United States markets and restrict the flow ofAmerican goods into China. In effect, what China is doing is following the Japanese example of using unfair trading practices. They've just chosen principally a different device to accomplish the same end. This, too, is, I think, and should be totally unacceptable behavior on the part of China. American workers who, for example, make sporting goods, footwear, and clothing are losing their jobs and their livelihood in part because our Government continues to let China get away with this unfair practice. Because of it, we're also losing opportunities to expand American exports to China, and are in effect losing jobs that would be associated with these expanded exports. Our Government, I think, must make halting the practice of exchange rate manipulation by China a top priority in our ongoing discussions with that country, and we want to talk with Dr. Sum- mers about that today. Let me yield now to Senator Sarbanes. OPENING STATEMENT OF SENATOR PAUL SARBANES S. Senator Sarbanes. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. I'm also pleased to join with you in welcoming to the Banking Commit- tee this morning the Under Secretary of the Treasury for Inter- national Finance, Lawrence Summers, for the testimony on the international economic policy, including the exchange rate policy. As Chairman Riegle pointed out, the Omnibus Trade and Com- petitiveness Act of 1988 requires the Treasury to submit a report to Congress on international economic and exchange rate policy each year, with an update 6 months later. Congress decided to require this report after the experience of the first half of the 1980's, in particular, when the Reagan Admin- istration seemed to simply encourage or accept a very—substantial appreciation of the dollar without really apparently well, they may have focused on it. They didn't publicly, in a sense, announce it as a policy. The result, in any event, was a dramatic decline of the United States trade balance from surplus to huge deficit. We went from being the largest creditor nation in the world to being the largest debtor nation. We have found ourselves depending, as Tennessee Williams said in one ofhis plays, on the kindness of strangers, and they're not often very kind in this economic realm. It was estimated that American producers were working at a 30 to 40 percent price handicap because of the overvaluation of the American currency. These reports which we're going to receive this morning work to improve the communication of the Administration with Congress, and through Congress to the public at large on what is seen by many as an obscure issue, but which really involves very vital public policy. Today's hearing comes at a timely occasion. The United States trade balance is widening and, as I understand it, today's report projects that it will continue to rise until growth picks up amongst our trading partners. Many of us see a primary purpose of the G-7 meetings to facili- tate coordination of economic policies in order to promote stronger growth and, with the G-7 summit just concluded, we will be interested to hear the plans and prospects in that regard. The exchange rate of the dollar versus the yen and the mark has recently been drawing a great deal of attention. As we had hoped when we fashioned this legislation under which the report is being given this morning, the report tries to put the decline of the dollar versus those two currencies into a longer term and a wider context. Apparently, and I'm interested that the Under Secretary will de- velop this in his testimony, or in questions, the dollar has appreciated against other currencies over this period of time, so that on a trade-weighted basis it stood only 2 percent lower at the end of June than it did 8 months before. I think that's a very important point, if, as I understand it, that's the state ofevents. The 1988 legislation required the Treasury to report on countries that manipulate their currencies in order to gain an unfair advantage in the trade relationship. Earlier reports documented practices by Taiwan and Korea that artificially depressed their currencies in order to promote exports and impede imports. Subsequent discussions and negotiations with the United States Treasury has brought about reform in many of those practices. The report this morning continues to find that the People's Re- public of China is manipulating its currency. The United States trade deficit with China is growing rapidly. Over the last 12 months, our $9 billion in exports to China were barely a quarter ofour $34 billion in imports from China. I'm very struck by people who say, "Well, we have $43 billion worth of trade with China." Nine billion dollars of it is our goods going there and $34 billion of it is their goods coming here, for a trade imbalance ofabout $25 billion. This has escalated in an extraordinary way. I don't think it's fully appreciated how this trade relationship is being manipulated by China, contrary to the standard rules of international trade, to gain an unfair advantage. Beginning in about 1986, we began to get this escalation in the United States imports from China. Chinese goods coming into this country, they're now just shy of$34 billion. Now, this is what has been happening to United States exports to China, an increase, but a relatively slight increase. This is what happens to the United States trade balance as a result of this gap. So the trade balance is now negative at about $25 billion. That's the second largest trade imbalance we're running with any country in the world. The report today, as I understand it, finds that China is manipulating its currency to gain a trade advantage, and they also have other restrictions on the trading relationship. Other major trading partners do not have such an imbalance be- tween their exports and imports in trade with China. According to the official Chinese statistics, which gets into this argument about how you treat goods that move through Hong Kong, China has a wide trade surplus with the United States, but runs a trade deficit with Japan, with Taiwan, and with the European Community. These are exports from China. These are imports into China. Japan sends more into China than it takes from China. The Eu- ropean Community sends more into China than it takes from China. Taiwan sends more into China than it takes from China. Here's the United States. Actually, what's happening is China is running a trade surplus with the United States and using the pro- ceeds ofthat trade surplus in order to run a negative trade balance with Japan, the EC, and Taiwan. So, in an indirect way, the Unit-