Travel in Towns: Jam yesterday, jam today and jam tomorrow?

325 Pages·1990·26.861 MB·English

by  Martin J. H. Mogridge (auth.)

TRAVEL
IN
TOWNS
TRAVEL
IN
TOWNS
Jam yesterday, jam today
and jam tomorrow?
MARTIN J. H. MOGRIDGE
M
MACMILLAN
REFERENCE
BOOKS
©Martin J.H. Mogridge, 1990
Softcover reprint ofthe hardcover 1st edition 1990 978-0-333-53204-1
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First published 1990 by
THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD
London and Basingstoke
Associated companies in Auckland, Delhi, Dublin,
Gaborone, Hamburg, Harare, Hong Kong,
Johannesburg, Kuala Lumpur, Lagos, Manzini,
Melbourne, Mexico City, Nairobi, New York, Singapore,
Tokyo.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Mogridge, Martin
Travel in towns: jam yesterday, jam today and jam
tomorrow?
1. Great Britain, Road traffic, Planning
I. Title
711. 730941
ISBN 978-1-349-11800-7 ISBN 978-1-349-11798-7 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-11798-7
Contents
List of Tables
Vll
List ofF igures
Xl
Foreword XV
Prologue xvii
1 Introduction 1
2 Road Speeds 15
3 Journey Speeds: Potential Journeys 43
4 Journey Speeds: Actual Journeys 69
5 Transportation Models 121
6 Road Pricing 148
7 The Downs-Thomson Paradox 181
8 Public Transport 213
9 Transport Revolutions 244
10 Road Building 274
11 Conclusions 282
Bibliography 287
Index 302
List of Tables
2.1 Central London random journey speeds (miles/h) 17
2.2 Means and standard deviations of travel speeds in test runs
on a selection of roads (Smeed, 1961) 23
2.3 Central London traffic speeds, London Traffic Surveys
1947-1966 (miles/h) 26
2.4 London traffic speeds, London traffic surveys 1968-1988
(miles/h) 29
2.5 Standard errors in speeds 30
2.6 Regression equations of mean speeds 1968-1986 (miles/h) 31
2.7 Regression equations of mean speeds 1952-1966 (miles/h) 32
2.8 Estimated 1966 mean speeds in RRL and GLC surveys
(miles/h) 32
2.9 Mean speeds in central London 1936 and 1952 35
2.10 Speeds of Horse-drawn vans between Post Offices in
1909-10 (miles/h) 38
2.11 Speeds of different vehicles along various routes in central
London 1908 (miles/h) 38
3.1 Central London random journey data for bus 44
3.2 Regression lines for bus journeys 45
3.3 Regression lines for bus journey components (1983) 46
3.4 Means of bus journey time components (minutes) 47
3.5 Regression lines for bus journey stages (1983 and 1988) 48
3.6 Average waiting time versus scheduled headway 50
3.7 Central London random journey data for rail (1983 and
1988) 53
3.8 Regression lines for rail 1983 and 1988 55
3.9 Means of rail journey time components (minutes) ( 1983) 55
3.10 Regression lines of rail time components ( 1983) 56
3.11 Regressions of components of time against direct distance
for rail journeys (Daspal and Gopalakrishnan, 1965) 57
3.12 Rail journeys in central and inner London (1987) 61
3.13 Running speeds of underground trains (1904) 63
3.14 Running speeds of suburban trains (1904) 64
3.15 Running speeds of suburban trains (1904) 65
4.1 Characteristics of car journeys to the centre (G L TS, 1971)
Main mode journeys, destination within 6-km of centre,
24 hour 78
Vll
Travel in Towns
Vlll
4.2 Local speeds of car trips 80
4.3 Characteristics of rail journeys to the centre (GLTS, 1971)
Main mode journeys, destination within 6-km of centre,
24hour 81
4.4 Local speeds of rail trips 82
4.5 Sample sizes in the morning peak-hour analyses of the three
GLT S samples of journeys by distance of origin from
centre, central area destinations between 7-10 am 84
4.6 Minimum travel speeds in the morning peak-hour analyses
of the three GLT S samples of journeys by distance of
origin from centre, central area destinations between
7-10 am 85
4.7 Maximum travel speeds in the morning peak-hour analyses
of the three GLT S samples of journeys by distance of
origin from centre, central area destinations between
7-10 am 86
4.8 Coefficients of variation of travel speeds in the morning
peak-hour analyses of the three GLT S samples of
journeys by distance of origin from centre, central area
destinations between 7-10 am 86
4.9 Standard errors of mean travel speeds in the morning
peak-hour analyses ofthe three GLTS samples of
journeys by distance of origin from centre, central area
destinations between 7-10 am 87
4.10 Analysis of direct distance, travel time and direct speed of
car and rail journeys in the morning peak-hour of the
three GLTS samples of journeys by distance of origin
from centre, central area destinations between 7-10 am 88
4.11 Modal split by rail in the morning peak-hour of the three
GLT S samples of journeys by distance of origin from
centre, central area destinations between 7-10 am 92
4.12 Mean journey speed by distance from centre of origin.
Independent regression equations 93
4.13 Mean journey speed by distance from centre of origin.
Regression equations with forced equality of slope
coefficient 93
4.14 Mean journey speed by distance from centre of origin, 1962.
Independent regression equations 96
4.15 Mean journey speed by distance from centre of origin, 1971.
Independent regression equations 97
4.16 Mean journey speed by distance from centre of origin, 1981.
Independent regression equations 98
4.17 Mean direct journey speed by sector by car and rail for
journeys beginning 15 km from centre, morning peak-hour
(7-10 am), central destinations within 6-km of centre 100
List of Tables ix
4.18 Analysis of direct distance, travel time and direct speed of
the access components of rail journeys from the origin in
the morning peak-hour 1971 GLTS sample of journeys
by distance of origin from centre, central area
destinations between 8-10 am 104
4.19 Analysis of direct distance, travel time and direct speed of
the access components of rail journeys to the destination
in the morning peak-hour 1971 GLT S sample of journeys
by distance of origin from centre, central area
destinations between 8-10 am 105
4.20 Regression equations of mean direct distance, time and
direct speed of access components of rail journeys by
distance of the origin from the centre, for car available
and no-car available travellers 106
4.21 Rail journeys in outer London (1987-9) 118
4.22 Access times for car trips to central London 1981 GLTS 120
5.1 Comparison of journey speeds (all-day, 1967) 128
5.2 Means of bus journey time components, peak-period 1967
(minutes) 129
5.3 Speed/flow relationship for expressways of four or more
lanes (Watson et al, 1955) 145
7.1 GLC transport expenditure 1977-8 to 1991-2
(1975 prices) 197
7.2 LT Service levels, fares and passenger miles-crisis level 197
7.3 LT Service levels, fares and passenger miles-
pessimistic level 198
7.4 LT Service levels, fares and passenger miles-
moderate recovery level 199
7.5 LT operating costs and passenger-miles (PM),
1991-2 forecast (passenger-miles maximisation)
(November 1975 prices) 200
7.6 Percentage of household cars used for work journeys
on a given number of days in a week, Greater London
1961-1964 (Gray, 1969) 209
7.7 Numbers and percentages of respondents by the different
kinds of mode-choice behaviour over a week-long period
for the four panel data sets 210
7.8 Modal-choice behaviour for respondents who work, full-
and part-time 210
7.9 Percentage of respondents by the various kinds of mode-mix
behaviour 211
7.10 Modal-choice behaviour, comparisons over time 211
8.1 Reconciliation factors for the main-modes in LAM 227
8.2 Summary of scenario appraisals in TASTE 229
8.3 Fare changes in the scenarios in TASTE 230
x Travel in Towns
8.4 Percentage changes in passenger-kin in TASTE (1986=100) 230
8.5 Benefit-cost ratios for cross-rail schemes (1989) 235
9.1 Proportion of car journeys by length of journey (Gray, 1969) 268
9.2 Proportion of car journeys by length of journey (Gray, 1969) 269
9.3 The distribution of car driver trips (NTS 1978-9) 270
9.4 Journey speed by journey length for car journeys 1972-3
and 1985-6 (NTS 1985-6) 271
9.5 Distribution of lengths of car journeys from 1965 to 1985-6
NTS (NTS 1985-6) 272
List of Figures
1.1 Cost/flow relationships on two competing highways 7
2.1 The random points in the 10-km square 16
2.2 The random tour in the 10-km square 17
2.3 The route factor for the random journeys in the 10-km
square 18
2.4 Smeed's determination of the route factor for central
London 19
2.5 Travel time versus direct distance in the 10-km square for
carjourneys(1983) 20
2.6 Cumulative distribution of travel times on a London car
journey 21
2.7 Cumulative distribution of travel times on a central London
car journey 22
2.8 Cumulative distribution of travel speeds on a set of London
road stretches of 1 mile in length 24
2.9 The RRL Survey routes in central London 25
2.10 The GLC Survey routes in central London 28
2.11 Bressey and Lutyens' routes in 1936 33
2.12 Roth's 1959 values of speed (in miles/h) 36
2.13 The Post Office railway in central London 37
2.14 Central area road speeds, midday off-peak, 1986 (miles/h) 41
3.1 Travel time versus direct distance in the 10-km square for
busjourneys(1983) 44
3.2 Tracks of individual buses along Route 14, 197 4 49
3.3 Travel time versus direct distance in the 10-km square for
rail journeys (1983) 54
3.4 Rail journeys in central and inner London (1987) 59
3.5 Cumulative distributions of travel times on central and
inner London rail journeys 60
3.6 Journey time/direct distance relationships in the 10-km
square 66
4.1 Trip time distribution GLTS 1981 73
4.2 The central6-km radius circle 76
4.3 Circular bands around centre of London with
administrative boundaries 77
4.4 Direct journey speed by distance of origin from centre,
morning peak-hour (7-10 am), central destinations
within 6-km of centre, GLTS 1981 94
Xl