Trading with an Edge - Bryce Gilmore

220 Pages·2004·14.81 MB·English

TradinagnE dg[ec.BJ r yce G2i00lI m ore
with
BrycGei lmeo'rs
A completter adinsge minar
a I..tf a
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TWs ••• f .ak.1 ...cal s with
patt_ t.t .clay
st.Icuo
on lIN .... bock
Buy
th is le
...1
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lGoy Support
By
BryceG imlore
d
2nEdit-iAolnrl i ghrtse ser[vCe2]d0 02

Tradinagn E dg[e1c Bryce Gilmore
with . 20I0
TWAE -Tabloef C ontents:
Introduction:
1. Marke-tPsu reI,m puraen dM anipulat3ed
2. Whoa ret heM arket7s ?
3. PreparatfioSorun csc es1s1:
4. Toolso ft he Tra1d6e :
5. Market Mecha2n3i cs:
6. PsycholoofTg rya din2g7:
7. MoneNyo w,L ateorrN ever3:2
8. MoneMya nageme3n5t :
9. MonitorYionuPgrr ogre4s0s :
10. TrEandterT ye chniqu4e2s :
11.I nitSitoapls8 tT railSitnogp s5:6
12.T renIdn dicat6o0r s:
13.O pen InterienFs utt urCeosn tract6s9:
14.T heO peniPnrgi cTer,e nadn dD ayb yD ay7:3
15.N ew YoWrokr lTdr adCee ntDeirs ast9e2r :
16.A ustraSlhiaarnPe r iFcuet ur9e6s :
17.S 8tP5080tS PI20I0n deFxu turTerasd ing1:2 8
18.D ayT radiSnhgo rt-tPeartmt er1n4:4
19.P ositTiroand in1g6:0
20.S oybe-aHni story8 tS easonal1i6ty8:
21.C onting.Pe lnacny1s8:0
22.T radiWnigt ahn E dge1:8 3
AppendCioxn tents:
APP1 .S oybeacnosn tinutaot1 i3Oo pne nI ntereasntdR eporAtsv ailaIb-lXe :
APP2 .O peniPnrgi 8tce GeometLreivce ls:
XI-XIV
APP3 .A ssorCtheda rwtsi tnho tes: XXII
XV-
APP4 .L iquidXXiItIyI:-
XXV
PersoNnoatlPe a ges:
A
Tradwiintaghn E dg[ec.J BGriylcme2o0 r0e1
Suggestiotnasb olofecn o ntents:
Ih ighrleycm omendt oy out oc reaytoeu r otwanb olfec ontents
liosfti moprtapnatg eyso uw istho retfore erug llayr.
Tol iesvte trhyinign this book wiilnli thpieraltolpov t ihdee no
user, rebaodo fkti hrfreso tm c overc otvoe rl eaattws itc e.
Highlitghehp ta geyso ut hinyko un eedto r eminydo ursoefl f
reugllayr.
Read thpeasgeea st leoansctew eae ku ntyioluh ave committed
thetmo m emory.
Ify oud ot hiyso uw ilfiln dy ouw ilgle tth ger eatgeasitfn r otmh e
valuacbolnet ents.
Thitse xhta sb eenw ritten moar e boltoihkka ean tecnhical
manuamlo,s t tohfee xamplweesr ew rittienrn ea lt ime tahse
markemtosv efdr odma yt od ayt,h eu nexpectheadp penwehde n
theWT C wasa ttackeTdh.ea uhtor'pse rosnaslt yliesr eflected
thruoghoaunt da s he sfoemlett hniencgse asryt oe mphasiitz e
appeairns tsheeq uence.
Creaatw er ittetnr adipanlgn :
Wheny ouh avcer eataep de rosnatlr adipnlgay no uc anr efreence
pageosft hibso otko i t.
Everyonseh ouhladv ae writttearnd inpgl aanc companbiye da
liosftk nowmni statkheeshy a vceo mmitted.
Youw ill mloeraear bno uyto usrt erngtahnsdw eaknesasnedbs e
ablteoc orretchte fma r meoarsei lyw atyh.i s
Alylo utrr adneese tdo rbeev iewaeftdet rh eayr ceo ncluydoeud ,
neetdo m akec ommnets ytoou rself on mahnoawg eyydoo uur
tradaensdi yfo uc oulhda vmea naged btehtteemNr o. twtor ades
areex acttlhye samoev eytrei tm teh ewyi lfla ilnlt coa tegories.
Tradifnogar l iviinswg or ky,o um ustw orakt i tto b es uccesls.f u
GoodL uckIs, h ounl'dsta yt habte cauistie su pt oy ou ctroe ate
youorw nl uck.
B
Tradwiintgh E dge. [c 1 Bryce Gilmore
an 20I0
Tradiwnigta hn E dge[ c] BrycTe.G ilmore.
2001
Introduction:
Ih ave baef euntl ilm ter adienor n e foorram n othaelmrly b usisnse
lifseo,m e yearasg oI, d ecidteod try hmayn adt c ommoidty
21
futurtersa ding.
Tob egiwni th haId m y upasn dd ownsl,u ckIiw lays uipnt he
beginnsionI g p ersevearneddd e cidteodl earmno rea boutth e
busisnsoe ft radilnegve ramgaerkde ts.
Myf iresxtp eriewintcthear dinfgut urmearsk etissp robasbilmyi lar
too thebru sniespse opwlheo j umipn t hed eeepn da ndh avaeg o,
becausites oundesx citiWnhge.ny oua re used rtuon nian g
succeslbs ufsuinaensdms o neiysn o object everyonnee sesl se's busi
lookesa sy.
WhenI s tarteId k newn othianbgo ucth atrso rt ecnhicaanlay slis,
onlfyu ndanmtealWse. h adj ustb eetnh rouag bho oma ndb usitn
Goladn dp eopalreo umnedk eptte llmiens gtr oieosfh owy ouc ould
make forta unter adithnegp apemrar kets.
Ita lslo undteodog ootdo b et ruseo I t hougIhw ti lhla vae go. I
probambaldye a ltlh em istakepso sbsliien t he 3 monthasn dm y
1st
brokleorv emde b ecauIsw eo ulmda kem ym argcianl olnst imaen d
keehpa vian ggo A.ft er3 monthIsd imdy s umas nda rrivaettd h e
concluIsw iaoswn a sntgim yt imTeh.e o nloyn em akiangn ym oney
ovetri mwea sm y brokerh.a dmI a de in tirnagpdr ofits
$26,000
aftelro ssaensd h eh adt aken ofi ti nc ommissiAtot nh.e
$24,000
timteh e commiwsesrieeo nnosr mo,u wsIa sp aying a round
$160
turn.
Id ecidteods t otpr adifnogar whilaen di nvestisgoamteoe ft he
thinIgh sa ds eewnh enI v isittheedb rokertargaed irnogo.m T hey
hadc leriknts h eo fficwei tchh asrta nds omec omptueerq uipment
pumpionugt sitgonb aulyas n ds elaltc ertlaeivne ls.
Ih adn evedro naen yw orok nm yt ardindge cisions tpharatil,ol r to
Ih ad diosrn ien g ubpr otkhaeenr da shk imth per icheew, o ulgdi ve
me hisa dvei acndI wouledi thgeor hwiasy o ra ganisth im,
dependhionwgI f elftr owmh aIth adr eadt hienne wspapers.
Att imeIsj ust trtahdientdgh sat th eb rokreerc momendebde cause
Iw anted atchtei Iow no,u lrdi ntgh en igdhets akn dg eta nu pdate
I
Trading Ewdigteh.B ra[yncGc ]ie l m2o0r0e1
ando ftenr everpsoes itiifo wnai stg oing nasgmtae i.I n evetrr aded
witahs tpol ostsh,e rwea sn on eedh aIdp lnetyof m oney.
Iw oulmda kea decistioot nr adoen tdhreo opf a hat, noingeIh t
wasd rivihnogm e ahnedad r otnh er aditoh aKti nHgu sseihna d
beesnh otF.i rtshti nIdg i wdh enI w alkeidnt hed oowra s ctahlel
nighdtes ki,tw asj ustb efotrhee o pen, atnodlt dhI e mt ob uy2
silvoentr h eo penI. rang bmaicnktu e4sl0 a taeftre trh en ews was
confirmoendt he and siwlavste rra dilnigmu ipt.S oI toldt oh im
setlhle mh,ea rTVg ubeudt idtai ndd Iw asu p$ 400i0na nh ouSri.l ver
traddeodw na ftetrh aAtt.t het imIet hougIhw ta sa g enius.
Theswee ret het hinIgu ss ed dtowo h enI f irsstta rtebde cauIs e
wasa g amblienr a wkanye.wt hIec asiondod sIw, a sa gobolda ck
jacpkl ayIeu rn,d setrooddi caen dI k newIc oulwdi nt,h awta st he
important mpya rtm aokfe up.
Nowa fte2r1y earisnt his nbeusIssh i avdee veloap ceodmp letely
diffearpepnotra chI, h avdeo nseo meh armdi lesI,h avceu rsaetd
mysealnfd o thesros many timtehsey eoavrefsro, rm e otrh em,
makinobgv iomuisst akIec sa ntr' emember.
I havsee en htihhegs ,I havsee en sloomwes I, h aveh add ays
wherIem ade$ 30,0a0n0d d ays whIel roes$ t25 ,00b0u,to velral
thibsu sinheasssb eevne rgyo od mteo.F ort harte asaonn dt hat
reasoonnl Iyh avbee epna ssionnkg n owleIdh gaev lee arnetdh ei n
"trencfhoeyrse "a rnso wT.h em oney I receives aflraeonsm d book
seminsg aoreasl onwga yt owrads amcyc eptaonftc heib su sisnsae s
a busisnsTe.h eraer en of relenu chetsh esya yS.o meonhea sto p ay
thep iper.
Nowt hep urposoeft hibso oiksto laayf oundatiootnh epfreo orp le
tof ollwohwo w antto maakc ea reoeurt toarfd ing.
Befoyroeu s trta youn eetdo k nowc ertatihni nagbso utth vee hicles
youi ntetnodt rade, atrhene oytt he" lotteryt"h elyo ookn t he
sufracea,n dt hinhgasv bee comseos opihsticoavteerd thei ty ears
almotsatk eas " uinversdietgeyre "i nc ommon sengseety otuor
footirnigg fhrto tmh est art.
Theb usisnsoe ft ardinlge veraged imsa rnkeoaetsts yt ,h aitsu nlsse
youm akei te asoyr a s easy caasnp oysosui mbalkey it.
Youm ust knowc ertaitnh intgos plyaocuer sienla f p ositoifo n
advantaTghee.yn o um ustk nowh owt oc onduycotu rsTehlafit.s
whatth ibso oiksa lalb ouHto.p yeo ue njoy it.
BrycTe.G ilrmeo[,C 2]0 01
2
Tradwiintaghn E dg[ec.Bj ry cGei lm2o0r0e1
Chapt1e:r
Marke-tsP ureI,mp uraen dM anpiulated:
The fpiarrsittn t hiesx ercoifsu en dsetarndiinsgt od escrmiyb e
thohutgosn t hev ariomuarsk ettsh ayto ua rel iekltyo t rade.
Reasobne insgo me are teota rsaidteehr a ont heYros.um ightth ink
almla rkeatsr teh es ameb uatl ,ay sou wobuelw dr ong.
Basicwael hlayv ien divicdoumamlo diftuyt urmeasre kts,i ndividual
stockisn,d efxut urienst,e rreastfteu turaensd rcruenrcaytf eu tures.
Int ermosf markewtes h avbea scioc mmoidtiwehsi cfho llow
PURE
at rentdos omed egrweiet bha ssiucp palnydd emanfda crtso:
Indivicdoumamlo dfiutyt eus,rt hesceo ulbde :-
SoybeaWnhse,a Ct,o rnG,o lSdi,l veetrca .n,do thers similar.
IndiviSdtuoac,lkt shesceo ulbde :­
Anyv olutmrea dmeadr kleeta der.
The most futures taor eit nrdaefdxue t urbeesc autshee y
IMPURE
represenbta skae ts oomfe thing,o fwe haicchch o ulbde i na
diefrfendte mantdr entdot hoet hers.
Index eFsua tnudrS tocIkn defxu tures.
Them ost futurteots r adaer ef uturseujsbe ctto
MANIPULATED
continiutneedrvn etiboyng overnmaegnnetc ietsh,e saer e:-
CurrenFcuyt eusra ndI nterReasttFe u trues.
So before
we sttarrtai dnagn ythwien nge ed lteoa trhn eb asic
CHARACTERISsTuIrCrSo unedaicnfhgu t urceosn tract.
Who arep ltahyeew rhsod, o mitneta hosmea rkeatnsdw hy.
Iti sn ott haitm portawnhti cmha rektsw et rade,s ojl uosnatgs w e
undsetrnadt he facwthoircishn fluetnhceue n dleyrisnugp palnyd
demanfdo re achc ompelx,f actotrhsa etf fcett hep scyheo ft he
buyearnsds ellers.
Justi n cIaa smec onfnugsy iou ats ttahgIieh s a vter adtehde ma ll
andI knoww hatI am talkianbgo, u twIi lelx plaaiswn e move
along.
3
Tradwiintgh E dge. [cGJi lmB2ro0yr0ce1e
an
seasonal Produce IndiviSdtuoackls
a.
Seasnoal Produce
Commoidtcyo ntraIcc taslp lu raer teh es easopnraold uccoen tracts,
SoybeaWnhse,a tC,o rent cT.h,e sceo ntrahcatvsae s peciufsieic n
lfieT.h eayr e tofhifec ihaeld gimnegc hanifostrmh efo ocdh aainnd
as rae sualrtes ujbectto suppldye maannpddr essuyreeasir ny ear
outT.h ec ommerchioauls edso mniatet hesmea rketasn dt he
volumaensd opiennt eraerseat l waygso odT.h ey avreeryl iquid
marektsa nda ttracat l ot sopfe clautionret reslt,a rghee dgfeu nds
sysmt etrade tmhaerkseet wsh icghi vetsh ema certaidne gereo f
predibcitylaa itt times.
The CBiOssT t iulsli nogp eonu tcpryi tst rtaon stahcet bnuessssio
theriesn oa rtifimcainaillp autifornoo mu tsiTdheic.so ulcdh anigne
thfeu tuarl ei ttwliet ahn o nlicnoem puteexre cutsiytosenm .
The Soybeainntssa nfcioesra v ersyt abmlaerk ettot radeex,c eipnt
timeosfe xtmreev olaittiytl,h ed airlayn gef aiirslp yr edictaanbdl e
the supporrte sainnscdte fa rotmh ep as3t datyesn dtsob ee asily
reaadble.
AlthouIgd ho n'otft etnr adWeh eaotr C orn ttheenytd o h oltdh e
samec hraacteriTshteiS cosy.b ean mtaernkdetsto bteeh cnically
readaiblnte i mcey claensd prliecveed luset ot hea bundaonfc e
tradeirnst hem arkeatn dt hen umebru sinvga riotueshc nical
tecnhiqsut eoi ntiiattrea des.
Sobyeanisso neo f mfyav orimtaer keYtesa.r asg o uistet do b eG old
andS ilver.
Fotrh en ovitcheeS oybean, oWrhC eoarmtna rkweot ulbdea g ood
stampignrgo utnodc uyto utre etohnf uturtaerdsi ng.
INDMDUALST OCKS (MarkLeeta ders)
Stocktsh attr adien h igvho lumaen dh aver eadialvya ilable
informattioo nt hsaetsai otref health,a nedfa urtnuiprnrego ss pects
are gporoods pefcotrs ttechhen itcraald er.
Ono ccasifounnsd ameinntfaolr mawtiileolxn c itthees pecautlors,
but wai lttihlt feo rseigmhots tt imeasne ntriyn ttoh es tocbke fore
that eventpuoasstiebsl ei.s
Thesset ocakrse d omitneadb y the pllaarygeesr os ,t hey always
maintaliinqi utiydA.n ys toctkh at trcaodnetsi nuvooulsu mies
normalal gyo odt raidngv ehicbleec ausew ilimlto stltyr end
upwaradnsdd ownwardasn o irnd efralsyih on.
4
Tradwiintgh E dg[e1c. BrGyiclem 2o0r0Ie
an
Stock IndexF utures
ASX20-0S harPer iIcned ex 200
TheA usatlriSaPnI 20f0u turiensd eixs a deritvhateAi SvXt eo po f
200s tockTsh.a t metahnastt h et otlac apitaliozfat thieo n2 00
stocakrse i ndxeedt oa valuTeh.ef uturceosn trtarcatd weist ah
preimumto o r dai scoaugannits tth AeS X20c0a sihn dex.
Thei mpiutyro ft hei ndecxa nb ee xplaitnheiwdsa y:-
Oft he2 00s tociknst hei ndetxh eto tp en accoujnuts tef xoicrne ss
of5 0%o f tthoet caalp italiTzhaet ito2on0pr. u na bout 66of. 7%
thteo tlca apitalization.
Ther amiicfatiooftn hsi asr es impl1e0s! t ocrkusl e ftahtoeef t he
indedxie rciton.
Oft hes1e0s tocwkes h avsee vermaarlk este ctoMresd,i Baa,n k,i ng
Resuocresa ndT elecoTmhsed. o mniatset ocikns tthoep1 0a reN CP,
NABC,B AB,H Pa ndT LS.
Ify ouc anw ork tohuett r enidnts h esset ocykosu cgainvy eo urself
anE DGwEh eni cto metos p redictthieonv ge lrialn dedxi rection. The
problesmtsrta whend iefrfenste ctoarrse t erndinigno pposite
dierctioansts h ecya nceealc oht heirnsf luoeunotcf e tehqeu ation.
Sectsotro ctkesn tdo trteongde etrh iti sa los ana dvanttaog e
follwo thet renidsns ectoarnsd t hsoe wieri ghtsi inntg heo vearll
indeTxh.i rse uqriesa lot eoxft rwao rki fy ouw antt om aintain
controly oouvaren ray lsis.
Anothtehri ntgok nowa boutth ese 1t0oi pst ha7t o ft hema re
tradoendo versemaarsk etso,u tsidoeft hen ormAaSlX b usisnse
hourassA DR'osn t he NYwShEe,r teh etyr adienU S$T.h ecyr eate
arbiter oapgportiutnifeosrt heb igp layearnsdi t iimpso rtantto
tractkh eA DR'ass gau idteot hed ayt od ayd ierctitohne ayr e
movinign .
Ih avdee visaem de thowdh icmha kesi fta ieralsyty o d ot his.
S8tP50U0S A
Thes amep rinciapplpeltsyo t heU St op5 00 inm ucahsa ss ectors
arei mportanttot ratcokg aiann E DGE.
DOW JONIENSD USTRAIVAELR AG-EtSh te op30 U Ss tocks.
NASDAFQu tures
AlthoIuh gahv neo td onael ootf w orok nt his iotan pep eatroms e
thatth eto p2 0w oulbde a ggouoiddt oet hoev elrdali erctiooftn h is
indxe.
5
Tradwiintaghn E dg[ec.BJ r yGciel m2o0r0Ie
CUrrencyF utures InterestR ates
•
CurreFnucyt rues
Thescea nf aluln detrh ec ategoorfy marke-tst hey
manipulated
arem aniptuelda tihne r espect gtohvraentm enatge ncieosf
dffierencto untrsieetps o liacgyr eemewnittshe acho thert o
maintaa" ibnor adb andv"a luation.
TheR eservBea nsk have ptohwee tro enttheemr a rketasn ytime
thelyi kaen dt akoen a lclo merTsh.i iss w"heyv enitsn"c urrency
futuroefst ecna us"es pimkoev esS"o.,i y fo ua raes leaenpdt a rding
somet renfdo llowsiynsgt eymo uc oulgde ta fews urprisferosm
timteot ime.
Theo ther tthhianitgs h elpfiuncl u rrenicsit eosw atcthh e%
chaen gitnr adirnagn gteoss eei ft heayr eh oldiinng 5 a% -10%
banads t hiwsi lall eyrto u otuot siidnet ervenbtyiR oens ervBea nsk.
Whena curriesn caoy bn u ltlr enodrb ear trenuds uiabtle liyins g
substantbiya tefdu ndamaennlatyaslis so, y oun eedt os tudy
fundamenttoia nlcsr eyaosuecr h naceosf s uccess.
Oneo ft he waIy sse ec urrencaisea s v iabtlared invge hicilse
spraedinogn ec urrenacgya inasnto thTehra.t t'hse onlyIw iwlaly
tradteh etmh esdea ys.
InterReasttFe u teusr
These armey b naogt btuhte, volumaemso gnasrtte h eb gigesotf
all fuctounrtersa Ycotusw .o ulbde amahzoewdm any traders are
employebdyb anska lalr outnhde worjluds stit atota d esakl dla y
and tradtiecs .f or 5
Basicaaslf larya sI c an wooruktt h etyr daet hee xpeacttioofnt he
nexrta tceu to r incraenads et rends devtehlewo apy W.ah leonn g
ther ategse ti ntoov erbouogrho tve rlsdot erritthoeryy steoe m
reatcotp rirceet creamenlte veqlutsie w ell.
Theayr weo rthi nvestigitfah tiitsny gpo eft hitnugr ynosu o n.
Bottom Une:
Whatevyeoru d o befyoorude o t radaen ym arkeat,t l easdtoa
discovteoryu rfi ntdo owuhta itts m ajoirn fluceensa re.I a ms uriet
wilsla vyeo u some heairtntb hrele oankrg u nH.i dden meaniinsg here
don'ttr adwei thotuhtek nowledogfwe h ayto ua re trading.
6