Trade and Economic Effects of Responses to the Economic Crisis: OECD Trade Policy Studies PDF
130 Pages·2010·1.49 MB·English
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The dramatic collapse in world trade in 2009 is, this report shows, mainly due to: the drop in demand for highly traded products; the drying up of trade finance; and the vertically integrated nature of global supply chains. Contrary to expectations, protectionist measures were relatively muted and did not play a significant part. In fact, because of their sheer size, stimulus measures may have had more impact on trade than direct trade policy measures Nevertheless, dollar for dollar, direct trade restricting measures have the most strongly negative impacts on growth and employment: a one dollar increase in tariff revenues results in a USD 2.16 drop in world exports and a USD 0.73 drop in world income. The analyses presented here suggest that exit strategies from measures to deal with the crisis will be most effective in boosting growth and jobs if they first roll back measures that discriminate between domestic and foreign firms and those that target specific sectors. General demand stimulus measures and active labour market policies are preferable under current conditions. Table of Content :ForewordExecutive summaryChapter 1. Summary, Conclusions and RecommendationsChapter 2. Explaining the 2008-09 Trade Collapse-Exports-GDP and imports-GDP elasticities-The rise in trade in intermediate outputs per se cannot explain the the magnitude of the 2008-09 trade collapse-Differences in the composition of trade and final demand can account for high Trade-GDP elasticities-The drop in ""world trade"" captures the synchronisation, but also masks important country heterogeneity-Cross-country heterogeneity suggests a link with the unwinding of global imbalances-Prices matter-The availability of short-term trade finance provides a partial explanation for the 2008-08 trade collapse-ConclusionsChapter 3. Policy Responses to the Economic Crisis-The conceptual framework-Measures taken in response to the crisisChapter 4. The Trade and Economic Effects of Crisis Response Measures-The model used-Simulations and results-Conclusions: Towards a roadmap for policy designAnnex A. Quantitative Analysis in Support of Chapter 2Annex B. Additional Tables and Figures in Support of Chapter 2Annex C. Short-term trade finance and its impact on trade: Evidence from panel data and time seriesAnnex D. Additional Tables in Support of Chapter 3Annex E. Statistical Decomposition of Policy Effectiveness IndicatorsReferences
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