Towards Decarbonising Transport

164 Pages·2017·18.73 MB·English

by  Agora Verkehrswende

Towards Decarbonising Transport
2018
A Stocktake on Sectoral Ambition in the G20
Spotlight: The Transport/Energy Nexus
Imprint

Towards Decarbonising Transport COMMISSIONED BY:
A 2018 Stocktake on Sectoral Ambition in the G20
Agora Verkehrswende Authors
Anna-Louisa-Karsch-Str. 2 Marion Vieweg
10178 Berlin | Germany
P [phone] Daniel Bongardt, Christian Hochfeld, Alexander Jung,
F [phone] Elena Scherer, Rana Adib, Flávia Guerra
www.agora-verkehrswende.de
[email protected] Editing
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Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale
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istock.com/Holger Mette
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65760 Eschborn | Germany Please cite as
P: [phone] Vieweg, Marion; Bongardt, Daniel; Hochfeld, Christian;
F: [phone] Jung, Alexander; Scherer, Elena; Adib, Rana; Guerra,
Flávia (2018): Towards Decarbonising Transport –
[email protected] A 2018 Stocktake on Sectoral Ambition in the G20.
www.giz.de Report on behalf of Agora Verkehrswende and
This publication is available for Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale
download under this QR code. Zusammen arbeit (GIZ).
Published: November, 2018
15-2018-EN
About
Acknowledgements Agora Verkehrswende is a joint initiative of the Renewable Energy Policy Network
Stiftung Mercator Foundation and the European for the 21st Century (REN21)
The authors would like to thank Holger Dalkmann, Climate Foundation.
Philipp Lendle (GIZ), Laura E. Williamson (REN21) and REN21 is a global renewable energy policy network
Hannah E. Murdock (REN21) for their valuable input that connects a wide range of key actors. REN21’s goal
regarding the data and policies. Deutsche Gesellschaft für is to facilitate knowledge exchange, policy develop-
Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) ment and joint action towards a rapid global transition
to renewable energy.
Agora Verkehrswende The Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusam-
menarbeit (GIZ) is a globally active provider of inter- REN21 brings together governments, non-govern-
In partnership with key players in the fields of politics, national cooperative services for sustainable develop- mental organisations, research and academic institu-
business, academia and civil society, Agora Verkehrs- ment and education. As a federally owned enterprise, it tions, international organisations and industry to learn
wende aims to lay the foundation for a comprehensive supports the government of Germany in achieving its from one another and build on successes that advance
climate protection strategy for the German transport objectives in the field of international cooperation for renewable energy. To assist policy decision-making,
sector, with the ultimate goal of complete decarbonisa- sustainable development. GIZ’s Advancing Transport REN21 provides high-quality information, catalyses
tion. The climate protection strategy elaborated by Agora Climate Strategies (TraCS) project is funded through discussion and debate, and supports the development
Verkehrswende is focused on transitioning the entire the International Climate Initiative of the German of thematic networks.
transport system from fossil fuels to electricity and fuel Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation
generated by renewables. Other important aspects of the and Nuclear Safety (BMU). Its objective is to enable REN21 facilitates the collection of comprehensive and
strategy include increasing the efficiency of the entire policymakers in the partner countries of Vietnam and timely information on renewable energy. This infor-
transport system by avoiding unnecessary transport Kenya to specify the contribution that will be made by mation reflects diverse viewpoints from both private
demand, transitioning to e nvironmentally friendly modes the transport sectors to their Nationally Determined and public sector actors, serving to dispel myths about
of transport and increasing the efficiency of individual Contributions (NDCs). In addition, GIZ seeks to develop renewable energy and to catalyse policy change. It
transport modes. Active collaboration is required at all detailed knowledge on mitigation potential in order to does this through six product lines: Renewables Global
levels of politics to bring about the transformation of the raise the level of ambition pursued by both countries. Status Report (GSR); Regional Status Reports; Global
transport sector, from the level of national and interna- At the international level, TraCS organises active Futures Report (GFR); Thematic Reports; Renewables
tional policy down to local municipalities. The think tank exchange between implementing partners, technical Academy; and the International Renewable Energy
seeks to consider the necessary interaction between experts and donor organisations in order to enhance Conferences (IREC).
these v arious levels while striving to promote a shared methodological coherence in the quantification of
understanding between stakeholders on promising ways transport sector emissions.
to transition to a decarbonised transport system.
3
Preface
Dear readers,
The extreme weather events of 2018 have given us a There is no single solution to making the transport Tanja Gönner
taste of things to come if man-made climate change sector carbon neutral. We need a multitude of meas- Chair of the Management Board
continues at its current pace. Although the interna- ures – including some measures that are currently Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale
tional community took a step in the right direction in controversial. One thing is certain: if we postpone Zusammenarbeit (GIZ)
Paris three years ago by resolving to keep the global necessary measures, future efforts to keep global
temperature rise well below 2 degrees Celsius, global warming below the 2-degree mark will have to be all Christian Hochfeld
emissions of greenhouse gases continue to increase. the more radical. Executive Director
The objective of preventing “dangerous anthropogenic Agora Verkehrswende
interference with the climate system” seems as distant This study provides a clear picture of the state of G20
today as in 1992, when world leaders formally ratified transport emissions, analyses already existing
the UN Convention on Climate Change at the Rio Earth approaches for decarbonising the transport sector, and
Summit. stresses the urgency of putting ambitious climate
action on the political agenda. In the process, we hope
The transport sector is responsible for roughly one to promote discussions about climate friendly trans-
quarter of emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, port, not just in G20 countries but everywhere. After
with road traffic being the largest culprit. Most trans- all, the transformation of the transport sector can
port emissions are produced by G20 countries, and succeed only when the entire international commu-
emission levels are still rising. However, if we are to nity works together.
meet the Paris climate target, those emissions must
drop to near zero by 2050. This represents an enor-
mous challenge, and one we must begin addressing
now. For it involves more than merely replacing inter-
nal combustion engine vehicles with electric ones. We
also need to transform the entire transport system and
couple it to the electricity sector.
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Dear readers,
Globally, modern renewables only cover 10.4 % of the Ambitions for developing electric mobility are rising helpful for policymakers in the G20, and globally, to
total final energy demand. Transport represents 30% of and electricity will play an increasing role in road recognise the opportunities that coupling transport
the total final energy demand but only slightly over 3% transport. This in turn creates opportunities for high and energy offer and in turn to raise the level of ambi-
is of this energy is supplied by renewable energy, shares of renewable electricity for trains, light rails, tion for a decarbonised future.
mainly biofuels. Compared to other sectors, the power trams and two-, three-, and four-wheeled electric
sector in particular, renewable energy uptake in trans- vehicles. However, the electrification of transport Rana Adib
port lags far behind. needs to be coupled with renewable energy-based Executive Secretary
decarbonisation of the electricity sector. This process Renewable Energy Policy Network
To decarbonise transport, renewable energy for trans- can be driven by explicit measures that integrate poli- for the 21st Century (REN21)
port must be developed and accelerated. Moreover, the cies to stimulate the use of renewable electricity in
integration of renewables in the transport sector is transport, e.g. by introducing renewable electricity
fundamental to decarbonising the energy sector. mandates or binding financial and fiscal incentives for
electric mobility. Phasing out fossil fuel subsidies to
Stronger integration of the transport and energy sec- create a level playing field needs to accompany such
tors is crucial to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement measures.
and requires the development of effective policies,
planning, coupled with ambitious targets. Developing Analysis of the transport sector in the G20 reveals that
renewable energy in transport also offers numerous, many challenges remain in driving the decarbonisa-
additional benefits, such as enhanced energy security, tion of transport and energy in an integrated way. I am
increased opportunities for sustainable economic very pleased that Agora Verkehrswende, the Deutsche
growth and jobs, and - depending on the renewable Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ),
fuel - improved local air quality. and the Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st
Century (REN21) have joined forces to underline the
importance of coupling decarbonisation efforts in
transport and energy. I hope this joint effort will prove
5
Content
List of Figures/Tables 8
Acronyms 9
01 | Background 11
02 | Mobility today and tomorrow 13
03 | G20 in the driver’s seat 17
04 | T he sector is far from meeting the decarbonisation challenge 23
4.1 Low-carbon pathways require substantial reductions 24
4.2 Repercussions for policies and measures 25
4.3 The mobility transition 26
4.4 The energy transition in t ransport 32
05 | Taking stock: Is the G20 on the right path? 45
5.1 Reality check: existing m easures not yet sufficient 50
5.2 Counterproductive: Fossil fuel subsidies 54
06 | The way forward 57
6
07 | Country Factsheets 61
Argentina 63
Australia 67
Brazil 71
Canada 75
China 79
European Union 83
France 87
Germany 91
India 95
Indonesia 99
Italy 103
Japan 107
Korea, Rep. 111
Mexico 115
Russian Federation 119
Saudi Arabia 123
South Africa 127
Turkey 131
United Kingdom 135
United States 139
09 | References 145
10 | Annex: Data sources for factsheets 149
7
List of Figures/Tables
FIGURE 3.1 ................................................................................. 17 FIGURE 4.7 ............................................................................... 37
CO2 emissions from the transport sector 1990–2014 Efficiencies for different electricity-based technology solutions
FIGURE 3.2 ................................................................................ 18 FIGURE 4.8 ............................................................................... 39
G20 per capita emissions and change in the transport sector Share of renewables in electricity output and targets for
selected G20 members
FIGURE 3.3 ................................................................................ 19
Share of transport subsector emissions in the G20, 2014 FIGURE 4.9 ................................................................................ 41
Development of grid emission factors in selected G20 countries
FIGURE 3.4 ............................................................................... 20
Development of per capita GDP and vehicle ownership FIGURE 5.1 ................................................................................ 45
in selected G20 countries, 2005–2015 The NDC submission cycle
FIGURE 4.1 ................................................................................ 23
Projected development of passenger and freight volumes TABLE 2.1 ................................................................................... 14
Transport-related SDG targets
FIGURE 4.2 ............................................................................... 24
Transport sector emissions: business-as-usual development and required TABLE 5.1 .................................................................................. 49
reductions under 2°C and 1.5°C scenarios Overview of transport-related targets in national strategies or legislation
FIGURE 4.3 ............................................................................... 25 TABLE 5.2 .................................................................................. 51
The geometry of the Transport Transformation Overview of implemented mobility measures across G20 countries
FIGURE 4.4 ............................................................................... 32 TABLE 5.3 ................................................................................. 52
Energy use in the transport sector in G20 countries in 2016 Overview of implemented energy measures across G20 countries
FIGURE 4.5 ............................................................................... 33
Renewable energy options in transport
FIGURE 4.6 ............................................................................... 35
Electric car stock in selected G20 countries
8
Acronyms
BAU Business-as-usual (scenario) IEA International Energy Agency
BEV Battery electric vehicle INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution
CNG Compressed natural gas IREC International Renewable Energy Conferences
CO₂ Carbon dioxide IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency
COP Conference of the Parties ITF International Transport Forum
EELP Energy Efficiency Leading Programme (of the G20) LDV Light duty vehicles
ERS Electric road systems LPG Liquefied petroleum gas
ETS Emission trading system NDC Nationally Determined Contribution
EV Electric vehicle NEV New energy vehicle
FCEV Fuel cell electric vehicle NMT Non-motorised transport
G20 Group of Twenty OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
GDP Gross Domestic Product PHEV Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle
GFEI Global Fuel Economy Initiative REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century
GFR Global Futures Report SDG Sustainable Development Goal
GHG Greenhouse gas SLoCaT Partnership on Sustainable Low Carbon Transport
GIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit UN United Nations
GSR Global Status Report UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
HDV Heavy duty vehicles VRE Variable Renewable Electricity
ICCT International Council on Clean Transportation ZEV Zero emission vehicle
ICE Internal combustion engine
9
01
BACKGROUND