TOWARDS A POLITICAL ECONOMY FOR AFRICA Also by Timothy Shaw AFRICA PROJECTED (co-editor with Olajide A/uko) NIGERIAN FOREIGN POLICY: Alternative Perceptions and Projections (co-editor with Olajide A/uko) THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF AFRICAN FOREIGN POLICY: Comparative Analyses (co-editor) AFRICA AND THE INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL SYSTEM (co-editor) ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR AFRICA (editor) ZAMBIA'S FOREIGN POLICY: Studies in Diplomacy and Dependence (co-author) CANADA, SCANDINAVIA AND SOUTHERN AFRICA (co-editor) CONFLICTAND CHANGEIN SOUTHERN AFRICA (co-editor) THE POLITICS OF AFRICA: Dependence and Development (co-editor) TOWARDS A POLITICAL ECONOMY FOR AFRICA The Dialectics ofDependence Timothy M. Shaw Director, Center for African Studies, and Professor of Political Science, Dalhousie University, Nova Scotia, Canada M MACMILLAN ©©TTiimmootthhyy MM.. SShhaaww 11998855 SSooffttccoovveerr rreepprirnint tofotfhteh ehahradrcdocvoevr e1rst1 esdtietidointi o1n98159 98758-0-333-36195-5 AAllll rriigghhttss rreesseerrvveedd.. NNoo ppaarrtt ooff tthhiiss ppuubblliiccaattiioonn mmaayy bbce rreepprroodduucceedd oorr ttrraannssmmiitttteedd,, iinn aannyy ffoorrmm oorr bbyy aannyy mmeeaannss,, wwiitthhoouutt ppeerrmmiissssiioonn FFiirrsstt ppuubblliisshheedd 11998855 bbyy TTHHEE MMAACCMMIILLLLAANN PPRREESSSS LLTT DD LLoonnddoonn aanndd BBaassiinnggssttookkce CCoommppaanniicess aanndd rrcepprrcesseennttaattiivvcess tthhrroouugghhoouutt tthhee wwoorrlldd BBrriittiisshh LLiibbrraarryy CCaattaalloogguuiinngg iinn PPuubblliiccaattiioonn DDaattaa SShhaaww,, TTiimmootthhyy MM.. TToowwaarrddss aa ppoolliitliiccaall ecccoonnoommyy ffoorr AAffrriiccaa I1.. AAffrriiccaa--EEccoonnoommiicc ccoonnddiitiloionns-s1-9169(6}0""- 22.. AAffrriiccaa--PPoolliittiiccss aanndd ggoovvecrrnnmmecnnt-lI-9169(6}0""- II.. TTiitlllee 333300..9966''00332288 HHCC880000 ISBN 978-1-349-17749-3 ISBN 978-1-349-17747-9 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-17747-9 RReepprriinntteedd 11999933 bbyy AAnnttoonnyy RRoowwee LLttdd CChhiippppeennhhaamm,. WWiillttsshhiirree For Jane, for being Contents ListofTables ix Preface x Map xii List ofAbbreviations Xlll INTRODUCTION:THEAFRICAN CONDITION 1 Reconceptualisation of assumptions, prescriptions and projections 2 Towardsanco-Marxistanalysisof Africa 4 Increasinginequalitieswithin and betweenstates 7 Pressures forand prospectsofself-reliance 12 Characterof,and contradictionsin, the Africancrisis 13 From crisistoconjuncture? 16 PART I THE AFRICAN CRISIS 1 PROBLEMATIQUE: THESTATEOFTHESTATE 23 From political modernisation topolitical economy 24 Theemergenceofan African bourgeoisie 28 From 'newstates' to'peripheralsocialformations' 29 Contradictionsat the semi-periphery 31 The marginalisationofthe periphery 33 2 PROGNOSIS:CONTRADICTIONSANDCOALITIONS 37 From classcoexistencetocontradictions 38 TowardsaclassanalysisofAfrica 40 Classcoalitionsindifferentpolitical economies 43 National v.transnational bourgeoisies 45 Civilian v. military bourgeoisies 48 viii Contents Proletariat,labouraristocracyand peasantry 50 Thestateofthestate 54 PART II THE AFRICAN CONJUNCTURE 3 PROSPECTIVE: MINIMAL GROWTH AND UNEVEN DEVELOPMENT 59 Africa's marginalisation in a post-expansion global economy 60 Fromanticipatedequalityto projectedinequality 65 Politicsofproduction: newforces and fractions 66 Class basesof African ideologiesand policies 71 Reform, repressionor revolution? 79 4 PRESCRIPTION: WHAT IS TO BE DONE? 82 Towardsdependenceor self-reliance? 83 VarietiesofpoliticaleconomyinAfrica 84 Towardscapitalismor socialism? 89 Thediplomacyofdevelopment:IBRD v.OAU 93 Towardsanarchyorcorporatism? 99 CONCLUSION - PROSPECT: CONSTRAINTS AND CONTRADICTIONS IN A POST-INDUSTRIAL WORW 1m Ideologyand reality: polemicsand professionalism 104 Class basesof politicaleconomyand foreign policy 108 Towardsan authenticAfrican future? 114 Notesand References 117 Index 129 List of Tables 1·1 Basic indicatorsfor Africa 8 1·2 Distribution of total African GDP among subgroups ofcountries 10 1·3 Growthof GNPperperson inAfrica, 1960-90 11 1·1 Africa's share of world and developing country exports ofselectedcommodities 34 3·1 Projections of selected commodity exports outside the region underthe historical trendsscenario 61 3·2 Principal merchandiseexportsofsub-SaharanAfrica 62 3·3 Balanceofpaymentsof developingAfrica 63 3·4 Terms of trade and export trends, selected African countries 64 3·5 Actualand projectedsub-Saharandebt-service ratios 64 3·6 Structureofexpenditureson GDP 1960-80 69 3·7 FAGindicesofagricultural productioninAfrica 74 3·8 Valueofcerealimports bydevelopingAfrica 74 3·9 African population factors comparedtootherregions 76 3·10 Historic trends and normative scenario for Africa's demographicsituation 1980and 2008 78 Cvl Average annual rates of real growth in economic indicators, 1966-76and 1981 109 C·2 Economicandsocial indicators, byregion 111 C·3 Valueofexports 112 C·4 Valueof imports 112 C·5 Balanceof trade 112 C·6 Termsoftrade 112 ix Preface This long essay was designed and drafted during a sabbatical safari through Africa in the early months of 1982 and subsequent return visits to Nigeria and Ethiopia in mid-1983; it wasrevised and retyped during a return to my alma mater, the University of Sussex, in the summerof 1982and duringperiodicstopoversat my'base' university in the summer of 1983. Although its form took shape during sabbatical and subsequent visits to universities in Africa (Abidjan, Addis Ababa, Bayero, Botswana, Calabar, Dar es Salaam, Ghana, Ife, Jos, Nairobi, Port Harcourt, Sokoto, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) and North America (Boston, Harvard, Indiana, Toronto and UCLA), its genesis really dates back to two radicalising experiences on the continent: lecturingat the universitiesofZambia (1973-4)and Ife (1979-80). Together these two encounters introduced me to the complexitiesand contradictions, dynamicsand impactsof'capitalism' inAfrica, insights whichtraditional'AfricanStudies'doesn't provide. This study is intended, then, to be both revisionist and radical, a timely enterprise, perhaps, as Africa progresses from its first twenty years of 'independence' into the final two decades of the twentieth century. The first half of the 1980s includes two symbolic sets of anniversaries for Africa. First, in 1983the continent celebrated both aquarter-centuryoftheEconomicCommissionforAfricaand the first twenty years ofthe OrganisationofAfrican Unity, not inconsiderable achievementsgiven the genesis of these institutions and the interven ing series of conflicts which have continued to threaten them. And second, in 1984- that symbolic year of Orwellian mystique - the continent marks the centenary of the notoriousTreaty of Berlin:the basic framework for the continent's colonisation. The survival of a degree of independence and optimism despite 1884and subsequent challenges is reason enough for celebration. However, as this study suggests, Africa as a whole ishardly much closerto eitherself-reliant or self-sustainingdevelopment than it was twenty years ago; it is to be hoped that the next two decades will mark an advance inthe Basic Human Needsof the mwananachi. But x