Toward Understanding the Nature of Leadership in Alleviating State Fragility

309 Pages·2014·4.62 MB·English

by  Ajay Tejasvi Narasimhan

Claremont Colleges
Scholarship @ Claremont
CGU Theses & Dissertations CGU Student Scholarship
2012
Toward Understanding the Nature of Leadership in
Alleviating State Fragility
Ajay Tejasvi Narasimhan
Claremont Graduate University
Recommended Citation
Narasimhan, Ajay Tejasvi, "Toward Understanding the Nature of Leadership in Alleviating State Fragility" (2012).CGU Theses &
Dissertations.Paper 27.
http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgu_etd/27
DOI:10.5642/cguetd/27
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Toward
 Understanding
 the
 Nature
 of
 Leadership
 in

Alleviating
 State
 Fragility

By

Ajay
 Tejasvi
 Narasimhan

Claremont
 Graduate
 University

2012

©
 Copyright
 Ajay
 Tejasvi
 Narasimhan,
 2012

All
 rights
 reserved.
APPROVAL
 OF
 THE
 REVIEW
 COMMITTEE

This
 dissertation
 has
 been
 duly
 read,
 reviewed,
 and
 critiqued
 by
 the

Committee
 listed
 below,
 which
 hereby
 approves
 the
 manuscript
 of

Ajay
 Tejasvi
 Narasimhan
 as
 fulfilling
 the
 scope
 and
 quality

requirements
 for
 meriting
 the
 degree
 of
 Doctor
 of
 Philosophy
 in

Political
 Science.

Prof.
 Alfred
 Balitzer,
 Chair,

Claremont
 Graduate
 University

Board
 of
 Visitors
 of
 the
 School
 of
 Politics
 and
 Economics
 and
 Senior

Fellow

Prof.
 Jean
 Lipman-­‐Blumen

Claremont
 Graduate
 University

Thornton
 F.
 Bradshaw
 Professor
 of
 Public
 Policy
 and
 Professor
 of

Organizational
 Behavior

Prof.
 Michael
 Uhlmann

Claremont
 Graduate
 University

Clinical
 Professor

Dr.
 Sanjay
 Pradhan

World
 Bank
 Institute

Vice-­‐President
ABSTRACT

Toward
 Understanding
 the
 Role
 of
 Leadership
 in
 Alleviating
 State
 Fragility

By

Ajay
 Tejasvi
 Narasimhan

Claremont
 Graduate
 University:
 2012

Approximately
 sixty
 countries
 have
 been
 designated
 ‘Fragile
 States’
 by

international
 development
 agencies.
 Home
 to
 two
 billion
 of
 the
 world’s
 poorest

people,
 these
 fragile
 states
 are
 characterized
 by
 violence,
 weak
 institutions
 and

shattered
 economies.
 Not
 only
 do
 they
 pose
 a
 challenge
 to
 regional
 security,
 they

often
 become
 the
 breeding
 grounds
 for
 terrorism.

Donor
 agencies
 pour
 billions
 of
 dollars
 annually
 into
 these
 countries
 –

through
 policy
 advice
 and
 conditional
 loans
 –
 to
 alleviate
 fragility
 and
 promote

development.
 Development,
 however
 it
 is
 defined,
 involves
 economic,
 social
 and

political
 transformation.

 Such
 a
 transformation
 is
 shaped
 by
 ideas,
 engages

multiple
 interests,
 and
 proceeds
 within
 rules
 and
 norms
 set
 by
 political

institutions.
 Since
 the
 structure
 of
 political
 institutions
 is
 influenced
 by
 human

agency,
 leadership
 becomes
 important
 to
 study.
 Leadership
 is
 crucial
 particularly

in
 fragile
 states,
 where
 institutions
 are
 weak
 or
 have
 been
 destroyed
 by
 conflict;

however,
 a
 systematic
 effort
 to
 examine
 the
 role
 of
 leaders
 and
 coalitions
 in
 fragile

states
 is
 lacking.
This
 dissertation
 seeks
 to
 create
 a
 methodology
 to
 improve
 understanding

of
 the
 role
 of
 different
 leadership
 strategies
 in
 bringing
 about
 transitions
 in
 and

out
 of
 fragility.
 To
 make
 the
 scope
 manageable,
 the
 study
 focuses
 on:
 (i)
 leadership

at
 the
 national
 level;
 and
 (ii)
 fragile
 states
 in
 Africa.
 It
 does
 so
 by
 examining:
 (i)

evidence
 from
 country
 level
 panel
 data
 on
 leadership
 (regime)
 change
 and

fragility;
 and
 (ii)
 in-­‐depth
 analytical
 case
 studies
 of
 transitions
 in
 and
 out
 of

fragility
 in
 four
 countries:
 Zimbabwe,
 Uganda,
 Rwanda,
 and
 South
 Africa.

The
 analysis
 looks
 at
 the
 relationship
 between
 the
 change
 agent’s

leadership
 strategy
 (the
 independent
 variable:
 political
 participation
 and
 inclusion,

economic
 growth
 and
 inclusion,
 and
 security
 and
 justice)
 and
 fragility
 outcomes

(dependent
 variable:
 conflict
 and
 security
 indicators,
 economic
 indicators,
 and
 the

approach
 to
 political
 inclusion).

The
 results
 of
 the
 regression
 analysis
 exhibit
 a
 robust
 association
 between

leadership
 change
 and
 fragility.
 Furthermore,
 the
 country
 cases
 show
 how

different
 types
 of
 leadership
 strategies
 lead
 to
 varying
 trajectories
 of
 fragile
 states’

post-­‐transition.
 The
 case
 studies
 reveal
 different
 approaches
 to
 sequencing
 of

political
 inclusion
 and
 the
 role
 of
 leadership
 exit
 in
 transitions
 from
 fragility.
DEDICATION

To
 my
 Gurudev,
 my
 Grandparents,
 and
 my
 Parents.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The
 author
 wishes
 to
 express
 sincerest
 appreciation
 to
 the
 Department
 of
 Politics

and
 Policy
 for
 its
 support
 and
 willingness
 to
 work
 with
 my
 individual
 track

requirements
 and
 especially
 to
 Professor
 Alfred
 Balitzer
 without
 whose
 support

and
 guidance
 this
 dissertation
 would
 not
 have
 been
 possible.
 I
 am
 grateful
 to
 Dr.

Sanjay
 Pradhan
 for
 his
 inspirational
 guidance
 as
 well
 as
 hands-­‐on
 advice
 on
 a

regular
 basis.
 His
 steadfast
 support
 was
 crucial
 in
 helping
 me
 walk
 the
 distance.
 I

thank
 Professor
 Jean
 Lipman-­‐Blumen
 for
 her
 abundant
 guidance,
 her
 gift
 of
 rigor,

and
 for
 reminding
 me
 that
 learning
 is
 a
 joyous
 activity.
 I
 thank
 Professor
 Michael

Uhlmann
 for
 his
 support
 of
 my
 interest
 in
 leadership
 and
 for
 allowing
 me
 to
 craft

my
 track
 of
 study
 at
 CGU.
 I
 am
 also
 thankful
 to
 Ed
 Campos,
 Craig
 Hammer,
 and

Alexander
 Hamilton
 at
 the
 World
 Bank,
 whose
 substantive
 inputs
 have
 been
 vital

to
 the
 completion
 of
 this
 dissertation.
 I
 am
 grateful
 to
 Madhushri
 for
 her
 support

and
 understanding
 during
 my
 doctoral
 studies.
 This
 dissertation
 would
 never
 have

been
 completed
 without
 the
 encouragement
 and
 love
 of
 my
 brother
 Arvind,
 and

my
 family.
 Thanks
 to
 Karthik
 for
 his
 help
 with
 the
 number
 crunching.
 Thanks
 to

Manoj
 for
 his
 medical
 advice
 and
 Shailesh
 for
 transporting
 me
 to
 the
 airport
 and

back.
 To
 all
 my
 friends,
 thank
 you
 for
 all
 your
 patience
 and
 kindness.

  vi
Table
 of
 Contents

1.
  The
 Challenge
 of
 Fragile
 States
 ..................................................................
 1

Why
 the
 Global
 Focus
 on
 Fragile
 States
 ...................................................................
 1

The
 Purpose
 and
 Focus
 of
 this
 Dissertation
 ............................................................
 2

Whither
 the
 Winds
 of
 Change?
 ..........................................................................................
 2

The
 Global
 Impact
 of
 Fragile
 States
 ...................................................................................
 5

Definitions
 of
 “Fragile
 States”
 ..................................................................................
 8

What
 Causes
 State
 Fragility?
 ...................................................................................
 11

Understanding
 the
 Causes
 of
 State
 Fragility
 ....................................................................
 11

The
 Impact
 of
 Path
 Dependence
 ......................................................................................
 14

Political
 Fragmentation
 and
 Weak
 Institutions
 ..............................................................
 16

How
 to
 Assist
 Fragile
 States?
 ..................................................................................
 21

2.
  Understanding
 Leadership
 .......................................................................
 25

Does
 Leadership
 Really
 Matter?
 ............................................................................
 25

What
 is
 the
 Meaning
 of
 Leadership?
 ......................................................................
 30

Defining
 Leadership
 ..........................................................................................................
 31

Definitional
 Evolution
 and
 Classification
 .................................................................................
 32

Limitations
 in
 the
 Literature
 ...........................................................................................
 50

Focus
 of
 this
 Study
 ...................................................................................................
 51

3.
  Leadership
 and
 Fragility:
 A
 Cross-­‐Country
 Analysis
 ...............................
 52

Analytical
 Framework
 ............................................................................................
 52

Assumptions
 ......................................................................................................................
 52

Measuring
 Fragility
 (Dependent
 Variable
 of
 Interest)
 .........................................
 53

Measuring
 Leadership
 Change
 (Independent
 Variable
 of
 Interest)
 .....................
 56

What
 is
 a
 Regime?
 ............................................................................................................
 58

What
 is
 a
 Regime
 Change?
 ..............................................................................................
 59

Statistical
 Analysis
 ..................................................................................................
 60

Sample
 and
 Variables
 .......................................................................................................
 60

Bivariate
 Analysis
 .............................................................................................................
 63

Regression
 Model
 Specification
 ......................................................................................
 64

Factor
 Analysis
 ..................................................................................................................
 66

Regression
 Analysis
 Results
 .............................................................................................
 66

Disaggregating
 Leadership
 ....................................................................................
 68

4.
  Leadership
 and
 Fragility:
 Country
 Case
 Studies
 .....................................
 70

Rationale
 behind
 Choice
 of
 Country
 Cases
 ...........................................................
 70

Methodology
 for
 Country
 Cases
 ..............................................................................
 71

Robert
 Mugabe’s
 Zimbabwe
 ...................................................................................
 76

The
 Structural
 Context
 for
 Mugabe’s
 Rise
 ......................................................................
 76

Mugabe’s
 Early
 Life
 ....................................................................................................................
 78

Mugabe’s
 Entry
 into
 Politics
 ......................................................................................................
 79

Mugabe’s
 Rise
 in
 Domestic
 Politics
 ..........................................................................................
 82

The
 Zimbabwe
 African
 National
 Union
 Emerges
 ....................................................................
 85

  vii
Mugabe’s
 Time
 in
 Prison
 ...........................................................................................................
 86

The
 Revolutionary
 Struggle
 in
 Zimbabwe
 ................................................................................
 88

The
 Lancaster
 House
 Agreement
 ..............................................................................................
 90

The
 Approach
 to
 Political
 Participation
 and
 Inclusion
 .................................................
 92

The
 Approach
 to
 Economic
 Growth
 and
 Inclusion
 ......................................................
 107

The
 Approach
 to
 Security
 and
 Justice
 .............................................................................
 115

Analysis:
 Mugabe
 as
 the
 Change
 Agent
 .........................................................................
 120

Conclusion
 .......................................................................................................................
 122

Yoweri
 Museveni’s
 Uganda
 ....................................................................................
 123

The
 Structural
 Context
 of
 Museveni’s
 Rise
 ...................................................................
 123

Museveni’s
 Early
 Life
 .................................................................................................................
 124

The
 Revolutionary
 Struggle
 ......................................................................................................
 125

The
 Emergence
 of
 the
 National
 Resistance
 Movement
 .........................................................
 127

The
 Approach
 to
 Political
 Participation
 and
 Inclusion
 .................................................
 131

The
 Movement
 Structure
 ..........................................................................................................
 133

A
 Broad-­‐based
 Coalition
 ...........................................................................................................
 135

The
 Evolution
 of
 the
 National
 Resistance
 Movement
 ............................................................
 138

A
 Weakening
 Coalition
 ..............................................................................................................
 141

The
 move
 to
 Multiparty
 Politics
 in
 Uganda
 ............................................................................
 145

Disunity
 within
 the
 Movement
 .................................................................................................
 151

The
 Approach
 to
 Economic
 Growth
 and
 Inclusion
 ......................................................
 152

The
 Approach
 to
 Security
 and
 Justice
 ............................................................................
 159

Museveni
 the
 Pan-­‐Africanist
 ....................................................................................................
 163

The
 Relationship
 with
 the
 Judiciary
 ........................................................................................
 167

Analysis:
 Museveni
 as
 the
 Change
 Agent
 ......................................................................
 168

Conclusion
 ........................................................................................................................
 173

Paul
 Kagame’s
 Rwanda
 ..........................................................................................
 174

The
 Structural
 Context
 of
 Kagame’s
 Rise
 ......................................................................
 174

Kagame’s
 Early
 Life
 ...................................................................................................................
 178

Kagame
 and
 the
 National
 Resistance
 Movement
 ...................................................................
 179

The
 Rise
 of
 the
 Rwandan
 Patriotic
 Front
 ................................................................................
 182

Kagame
 and
 the
 RPF’s
 Armed
 Struggle
 ...................................................................................
 186

The
 Rwandan
 Genocide
 ............................................................................................................
 189

The
 Approach
 to
 Political
 Participation
 and
 Inclusion
 ................................................
 190

Strengthening
 State
 Institutions
 ..............................................................................................
 193

Intimidating
 the
 Opposition
 ....................................................................................................
 197

The
 Approach
 to
 Economic
 Growth
 and
 Inclusion
 ......................................................
 199

The
 Approach
 to
 Security
 and
 Justice
 ...........................................................................
 204

Analysis:
 Kagame
 as
 Change
 Agent
 ...............................................................................
 207

Conclusion
 .......................................................................................................................
 210

Nelson
 Mandela’s
 South
 Africa
 .............................................................................
 212

The
 Structural
 Context
 for
 Mandela’s
 Rise
 ....................................................................
 212

Mandela’s
 Early
 Life
 ..................................................................................................................
 213

Mandela’s
 Involvement
 in
 Political
 Activism
 ..........................................................................
 216

The
 Defiance
 Campaign
 ............................................................................................................
 221

Building
 the
 ANC
 .....................................................................................................................
 224

The
 Freedom
 Charter
 ...............................................................................................................
 229

The
 ANC
 and
 Violent
 Resistance
 .............................................................................................
 230

Mandela’s
 Time
 in
 Prison
 .........................................................................................................
 232

Mandela
 and
 de
 Klerk
 ..............................................................................................................
 240

  viii
Negotiating
 with
 the
 “enemy”
 ..................................................................................................
 243

Approach
 to
 Political
 Participation
 and
 Inclusion
 .......................................................
 250

The
 Approach
 to
 Economic
 Growth
 and
 Inclusion
 ......................................................
 253

The
 Approach
 to
 Security
 and
 Justice
 ............................................................................
 258

Analysis:
 Mandela
 as
 the
 Change
 Agent
 ........................................................................
 261

Conclusion
 ......................................................................................................................
 264

5.
  Comparison
 Across
 Cases
 .......................................................................
 265

Different
 Strokes:
 A
 Comparison
 of
 Leadership
 Strategies
 ................................
 265

Mugabe’s
 Leadership
 Strategy
 .................................................................................................
 265

Museveni’s
 Leadership
 Strategy
 ..............................................................................................
 268

Kagame’s
 Leadership
 Strategy
 .................................................................................................
 270

Mandela’s
 Leadership
 Strategy
 .................................................................................................
 272

Comparison
 of
 Leadership
 Strategies
 .....................................................................................
 274

Sequencing
 and
 Prioritizing
 Reform
 ...................................................................
 275

6.
  Insights
 and
 Implications
 .......................................................................
 280

Insights
 .................................................................................................................
 280

Insight
 1:
 The
 Important
 Role
 of
 Leadership
 in
 Establishing
 Institutions
 for

Development
 ...................................................................................................................
 280

Insight
 2:
 Differentiated
 Leadership
 Strategies
 –
 Key
 role
 of
 sequencing
 political

participation
 of
 inclusion
 ................................................................................................
 282

Insight
 3:
 Importance
 of
 Exit
 as
 Key
 Aspect
 of
 Effective
 Leadership
 Strategy
 ............
 285

Insight
 4:
 The
 Need
 for
 Additional
 Rigorous
 Research
 on
 Leadership
 ......................
 286

Conclusion
 ......................................................................................................................
 286

Bibliography
 ..................................................................................................
 288

  ix