Toward Interactive and Intelligent Decision Support Systems: Volume 2 Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference on Multiple Criteria Decision Making Held at Kyoto, Japan August 18–22, 1986 PDF
Preview Toward Interactive and Intelligent Decision Support Systems: Volume 2 Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference on Multiple Criteria Decision Making Held at Kyoto, Japan August 18–22, 1986
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Krelle (Managing Editor) H.P.Kunzi K.Ritter R.Sato U.Schittko P.Schonfeld R.Selten Managing Editors Prof. Dr. M. Beckmann Brown University Providence, RI 02912, USA Prof. Dr. W. Krelle Institut fUr Gesellschafts-und Wirtschaftswissenschaften der Universitat Bonn Adenauerallee 24-42, 0-5300 Bonn, FRG Editors Prof. Dr. Yoshikazu Sawaragi Japan Institute of Systems Research clo Nippon-Italy Kyoto Kaikan 4 Ushinomiya-cho, Yoshida, Sakyo Kyoto 606, Japan Prof. Dr. Koichi Inoue Kyoto University Department of Aeronautical Engineering Yoshida-honmachi, Sakyo Kyoto 606, Japan Prof. Dr. Hirotaka Nakayama Kanan University Department of Applied Mathematics 8-9-1 Okamoto, Higashinada Kobe 658, Japan ISBN-13: 978-3-540-17719-7 e-ISBN-13: 978-3-642-46609-0 001: 10.1007/978-3-642-46609-0 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, re-use of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in other ways, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is only permitted under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its version of June 24, 1985, and a copyright fee must always be paid. Violations fall under the prosecution act of the German Copyright Law. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1987 2142/3140-543210 PIEFACE These proceedings include papers presented at the VII-th Internatio nal Conference on Multiple Criteria Decision Making which was held in Kyoto/Japan on August 18-22, 1986. Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) has been a greatly import ant subject in many practical fields, for example, in planning, design, control and management in both private and public sectors. After remark able developments of theory, methodology and pilot case studies in rec ent years, it is now facing the stage of real applications and develop ment of more sophisticated methodology as interactive intelligent decision support systems. The conference aimed to provide a significant contribu tion to the future of MCDM as one of total systems including human factors: Substantial emphasis was given to knowledge engineering and cognitive sci- ence. The conference inherits the tradition and the style of the previous conferences: (1) Jouy-en-Josas/France (1975), (2) Buffalo/U.S.A. (1977), (3) Konigswinter/FRG (1978), (4) Delaware/U.S.A. (1980), (5) Mons/Belgium (1982), (6) Cleveland/U.S.A. (1984). This time a great many Japanese com panies provided grants for the conference. As a result, the total number of participants was over 120, and a computer demonstration could be reali zed on an extensive scale as well as the conference sessions. Throughout the conference, it was observed that MCDM is making steady progress not only in theory but also as a tool for decision support. The proceedings are separated into two volumes:Vol. 1 includes Inter active Decision Support Systems, Interactive Multiobjective Programming Methods, Applications and Theory of Vector Optimization. Vol. 2 contains Intelligent Decision Support Systems, Utility and Risk Analysis, Value Analysis and Intensity of Preference, Hierarchy Analysis and Weighting Methods, Incomplete Information and Group Decisions. We believe that the proceedings provide excellent surveys, a fine quality of original papers concerning theory, methodology and applica tions. We hope this proceedings will contribute greatly to the develop ment of systems science including human factors aiming towards interactive and intelligent decision support systems in the future. IV The editors would like to take the opportunity to express their thanks to the sponsors: the International Special Interest Group on Multiple Cri teria Decision Making, the Japan Institute of Systems Research, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (ilASA), Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (INRlA), National Science Foundation of the United States of America, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, and Japan Information Processing Development Center. We also wish to thank other members of the National Organizing Committee: Prof. A. Ichikawa (Tokyo Institute of Technology), Prof. S. Iwai (Kyoto Univer sity) and Prof. Y. Nishikawa (Kyoto University) for the successful organization. Finally, we would like to acknowledge that the conference was supported by the grant of the Commemorative Association for the Japan World Exposition and the Murata Science Foundation, and also by the Machinery Industry Development Fund provided by the Japan Bicycle Promotion Association and by the guidance of the MITI. December 1986, in Kyoto Yoshikazu Sawaragi Koichi Inoue Hirotaka Nakayama CCIft1INTB (VOL. 2) PART I. INTBLLIGBNT DBCISION SUPPORT SYSTBMS An Interactive Knowledae Support System with Imperfect 1 Information: Toward a Microcomputer Implementation of ARIADNE A.P. Sage~ A. Goicoechea and P.B. Aiken Object Model for a Deep Knowledae System 11 B. Ueno A Distributed Problem Solvina Approach to Control 10 Asynchronous and Concurrent Processes S. Kobayashi and N. Dno A Human-Friendly Interface System for Decision Support 30 Based on Self-oraanized Multi-Layered Knowledge Structures T. Sa7JaI'agi~ S. Iwi and O. Katai Intelligent Decision Support for Technology Assessment 40 M. Grauer and K. F edr-a A Framework for Choosing the Most Appropriate Discrete 56 Alternative Multiple Criteria Decision-Making Method in Decision Support Systems and Expert Systems V.M. Oaemoy The Intelligent Decision Support System: Synthesis 65 of a Decision Support System and an Expert System Y. Kuratani A Decision-Support System for Systems Engineering and 71 Management: The SEMS Experiment at NASA A. Goicoechea~ R.W. Netson and W. Trusako~ski To Solve Discrete Multicriteria Decision Problems 80 Based on Logic-Based Decision Support Systems H.L. Li MCDM: From 'Stand-Alone' Methods to Integrated and 90 Intelligent DSS M.T. Jetassi Development of a Diagnosis Analysis System for Ion 100 Implanter Y. Doi~ T. Yokohara~ M. MatBUO~ K. Arima~ N. Tachibana~ M. Yamaji and M. Katsurag~a A Multiple Criteria Algorithm for Automatic Layout of 109 Data Flow Diagrams K.J. Fam and T.T. Waung VI On the Method to Arrange and Use Expertise 119 K. HagitJara Intellectual Distributed Processing System Development 129 S. Tamura~ I. Okataku~ T. Endo~ T. Seki and M. Arai Japanese-English Machine Translation System Implemented 139 in the Personal Computer T. Shiino ~ H. Iasuhara ~ M. SakarrKJto ~ and A. Tanaka PART II. UTILITY AND RIS~ ANALYSIS Multiattribute Utility and Derived Utility 149 J.W. Pratt Applications of Utility Theory in Artificial Intelligence 1SS Research P.H. Farquhar Portfolio Risk Aversion and Weighted~Utility Theory 162 S.H. Chelil and M.H. Mao Expected Utility with a Threshold Function 170 I. Nakamura Risk Management in a Hierarchical Multiobjective 180 Framework D. Li and 1.1. Haimes A Land Use Model for Spatial Policy Analysis and 190 Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Regional Development Planning K. IoshikatJa~ K. Kobayashi and S. Mun Multiattribute Utility Modeling of Cardiac Health 200 Effects from Carbon Monoxide Exposure L.R. KeLter and W.E. Lambert PART III. VALUE ANALYSIS AND INTENSITY OF PREFERENCE On a Measurable Value Function under Risk : 210 A Descriptive Model of Preferences Resolving the Expected Utility Paradoxes H. Tamura~ I. Mori and I. Nakamura Intensity of Preference 220 J.C. Vansnick Verifying Preference Separability for Additive Value 230 Functions P .L. Iu and E. Takeda VII PART IV. HIERARCHY ANALYSIS AND WEIGHTING METHODS The General Case of Dependence in Hierarchic Decision 239 Theory T.L. Saaty The New Dynamic Priorities Model and an Analysis of 249 China's Energy Strategy for the Future S. Xu and B. Liu Evaluation of Cardinal Utility Based on Weighted 257 Paired-Comparisons K. Inoue~ T. Moriyasu and Y. Masago Design of a Decision-Support Workstation System for 267 Hierarchical Multiobjective Inventory Control Y. Nishika~~ J. Nomura~ K. Sa~ada and R. Nakajima A Rationale for Additive Decomposition in Multi- 277 attribute Utility Assessment J.S. Dyer and H.V. Ravinder An Approach to Preference Vector Derivation Using 286 Geometric Least Square G. Islei and A.G. Lockett Assessing Weights by Means of Pairwise Comparisons 296 V. Belton and T. Gear Bias in Assessment of Attribute Weights 309 M. Weber~ F. Eisenfuhr and D. von Winterfeldt PART V. INCOMPLBTB INFORMATION Bicriterion Decision-Making under Randomness and Worth 319 of Perfect Information L. Duckstein~ D. Davis and J. Weber The Perspective of Possibilistic Models in Decision 328 Making J. Watada and H. Tanaka An Interactive Fuzzy Satisficing Method for Multi- 338 objective Linear Fractional Programming Problems with Fuzzy Parameters M. Saka~a and H. Yano Multicriteria Optimization Problems in Statistics 348 S.C. Narula and J.F. Wellington VIII PART VI. GROUP DECISIONS A Prototype Selection CODllllittee Decision Analysis and 358 Support Systems. SCDAS: Theoretical Background and Computer Implementation A. Le&JandoIJ8ki .. S. John8on and A. Wierzbicki Scalarization. Optimality Conditions and Group Decision 366 Making M.Q. ring Two Aspects of Group Decision Support System Design 373 G.E. Ker8ten Multi-Person Decision Support with Knowledge Base 383 Systems W. MichaloIJ8ki Socio-Economic Interpretation of Multiple Agents 393 Decision Making by Game Theory F. Seo Microcomputer-Based Games for the Purposes of Environ- 403 mental Protection and Managemental Training N. Baba Interactive Modeling and Gaming-Simulation for Group 412 Decision Making Y. Nakamori Multiactor Decision Analysis for Regional Investment 422 Allocation K. Kobaya8hi .. T. Tanino .. A.P. Wierzbicki and M. OkW11Ul'a APPENDICES 1. Softwares in Computer Demonstration Session 432 2. List of PartiCipants 436 3. Organization 448 4. List of Sponsors 449 CONTENTS (VOL. 1) PART I. INTBRACTIVB DBCISION SUPPORT SYSTBKS Towards Interactive and Intelligent Decision SUppOTt 1 Systems 1. Sawa:l'agi Corporate Systematic Thinking and its Implementation; 10 in Retrospect of my Way K. Kobayashi On Effective Goal Setting 18 I.S. Chien and P.L. lu Systems Approach to Multiple Criteria Decision Making; 28 Metaoptimum M. Zel.eny Symmetries in Multicriteria Optimization and their 38 Applica tion B.A. Berezovsky and I.M. Baryshnikov Habitual Domains Analysis: An Application to High Stake 47 Decision Problems S. Huang Multicriteria Comparative Analysis of Discrete 57 Al terna tives B. G. Sl.avov and B. Mettev Danev~ Integration of Didactics and Creativity in Interactive 65 Multiple Criteria Decision Support Systems S.M. Borch Autonomous Coordinability of Decentralized System 75 Considering Subsystems Failures M. Koizumi and K. Mori Identifying Support in Decision Support Systems 85 1. Kobashi PART II. INTBRACTIVB KULTIOBJBCTIVE PROGRAKKING KETRODS Analytical Survey of Procedures for Solving Multi 95 criteria Mathematical Programming Problems (MMPP) O.I. Larichev and A.D. Nikiforov .fethods for Constructing Interactive Procedures in 105 !ful tiobjective Optimization Problems V.S. Mikhal.evich and V.L. Vol.kovich
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