Toward an International Virtual Observatory: Proceedings of the ESO/ESA/NASA/NSF Conference Held at Garching, Germany, 10-14 June 2002

133 Pages·2004·3.447 MB·English

by  P. J. E. Peebles (auth.), Peter J. Quinn, Krzysztof M. Górski (eds.)

Nineteenth and Twentieth Century Clouds
Over the Twenty-First Century
Virtual Observatory
P.J.E. Peebles
Joseph Henry Laboratories, Jadwin Hall,
Princeton University,Princeton NJ 08544, USA
Abstract. PhysicalsciencehaschangedinthecenturysinceLordKelvin’scelebrated
essayonNineteenth CenturyCloudsovertheDynamicalTheoryofHeatandLight,but
somethingsarethesame.Analogsinwhatwashappeninginphysicsthenandwhatis
happeninginastronomytodayservetoreminduswhywecanbeconfidenttheVirtual
Observatory of thetwenty-firstcenturywill have a rich list of challenges to explore.
1 Introduction
Astronomy has enjoyeda very goodcentury. Havethe basic problems now been
solved, leaving for the astronomers of the 21st century the task of working out
the pesky details? The question is little discussed – astronomers are too busy
with ongoing research – but worth considering from time to time. I shall argue
thatwehaveausefulguidetothelong-termprospectsforresearchinastronomy
fromanalogstothepresentsituationinwashappeninginphysics100yearsago.
In both cases there is a basis of fundamental concepts that are strikingly suc-
cessful, apart from some stubborn clouds, or, as we would now say, challenges
for research.The clouds overelectromagnetismand thermalphysics atthe start
of the 20th century foreshadowed relativity and quantum physics. We can’t say
what will be learned from the clouds over present-day astronomy – I shall men-
tionaspectsofthedarksector,strongspacecurvature,andthe meaningoflife –
but we can be sure they will continue to drive difficult but fascinating research
in astronomy for quite some time to come.
2 Physics at the Start of the 20th Century
The elements of the situation in physics a century ago have been retold to gen-
erations of students, and rightly so; these are golden moments in the history of
physicalscience.And I think they areanedifying examplefor ourassessmentof
the present state of research in astronomy.
Atthestartofthe20thcenturyphysicistshadgoodreasontobelievetheyhad
securely established laws of electromagnetism and thermal physics, well tested
in the laboratory and applied in rapidly growing power and communications
industries; Lord Kelvin’s fortune came from his contributions to the design of
ESOSymposia:TowardanInternational VirtualObservatory,pp.1–10, 2004.
(cid:1)c Springer-VerlagBerlinHeidelberg2004
2 P.J.E. Peebles
the transatlantictelegraphcable.Buthe andothers werewell awareofflaws,or
clouds, in the physics, as famously summarized in Kelvin’s [1] essay in 1901.
Kelvin’sCloud No.I is the luminiferous ether.The experimentalsituationis
alsodiscussedinLectureVIII,The Ether,inMichelson’sLight Waves and Their
Uses [2]. You can read about the familiar experiments – Michelson’s discovery
of the isotropy of the velocity of light, and the Fizeau measurement of the ad-
dition of velocities of light and fluid in a moving fluid – and others that are less
celebrated but as remarkable.My favorite among the latter is the measurement
of annual aberration in a telescope that is filled with water so as to reduce the
velocity oflight.The results areno surpriseto us,but a realproblemforKelvin
and Michelson. Kelvin mentions with approval the contraction idea of Fitzger-
ald and Lorentz,but concludes “I amafraidwe must still regardCloud No. I as
verydense”[1].Einstein’sbrilliantinsightclearedthe cloud,andgaveusspecial
relativity theory. If that had not happened I have to believe people would soon
have pieced together the full theory from these remarkable measurements.
Kelvin’s Cloud II is the inconsistency of the law of partition of energy at
thermalequilibriumwiththemeasuredratiosC /C ofheatcapacitiesofgasesat
p v
constantpressureandvolume.1Kelvin[1]quotesRayleigh’sassessment[3]:“The
difficulties connectedwiththeapplicationofthelawofequalpartitionofenergy
toactualgaseshavelongbeenfelt.Inthecaseofargonandheliumandmercury
vapour the ratio of specific heats (1.67) limits the degrees of freedom of each
moleculetothethreerequiredfortranslatorymotion.Thevalue(1.4)applicable
to the principal diatomic gases gives room for three kinds of translation and
for two kinds of rotation. Nothing is left for rotation round the line joining the
atoms, nor for relative motion of the atoms in this line. Even if we regard the
atomsasmerepoints,whoserotationmeansnothing,theremuststillexistenergy
of the last-mentioned kind, and its amount (according to the law) should not
be inferior.” Something certainly is wrong. Kelvin accepted the mechanics and
questioned the assumptionof strict statistical equilibrium. Planck(1900)hit on
the fix, to the mechanics, in the model for blackbody radiation, and Einstein
(1907) applied the fix to heat capacities, in early steps to quantum physics.
Itisoftensaid,atleastinintroductoryremarksincoursesonmodernphysics,
that people were a lot more impressed by the successes of physics in 1900 than
by the clouds, that the feeling was that physics is essentially complete, apart
from fixing a few problems and adding decimal places. The famous example is
Michelson’sstatement(in[2],p.23),thatthe“moreimportantfundamentallaws
andfactsofphysicalsciencehaveallbeendiscovered,andthesearenowsofirmly
1 Thismemorablestoryhasbeentaughttogenerationsofstudentsintheintroduction
to quantummechanics, some of whom I hopeactually appreciated it. Equipartition
in classical mechanics says that at thermal equilibrium at temperature T the mean
energy belonging to each quadratic term in the Lagrangian is kT/2. It follows that
if each atom or molecule in a gas has ν quadratic terms associated with its internal
structure then, taking account of the pdV work at constant p, the ratio of heat
capacities is Cp/Cv = (5+ν)/(3+ν). Thus classical physics predicts that a gas
of point-like particles has Cp/Cv = 5/3, and a gas of atoms with a rich internal
structure, so ν is large, has Cp/Cv close to unity.
Clouds OvertheVirtual Observatory 3
established that the possibility of their ever being supplanted in consequence of
new discoveries is exceedingly remote.” This is clear enough, and Badash [4]
shows Michelson repeated these sentiments elsewhere, so at the time he must
have meant it. But consider Michelson’s summary statement in the same book,
at the end of the chapter on the ether ([2], p.163): “The phenomenon of the
aberration of the fixed stars can be accounted for on the hypothesis that the
ether does not partake of the Earth’s motion in its revolution about the sun.
Allexperimentsfortestingthishypothesishave,however,givennegativeresults,
so that the theory may still be said to be in an unsatisfactory condition.” And
earlier in the summary he says “Little as we know about it [the ether], we may
saythatourignoranceofordinarymatterisstillgreater.”HereMichelsonsounds
like someone who sees very real challenges.
Thesechallengesdrovehardwork,asinFizeau’sremarkablewaterworksand
Michelson’s[2]massivearrangementstosuppressvibrations:“theapparatuswas
mountedona stonesupport,aboutfour feetsquareandone footthick,andthis
stonewasmountedonacirculardiscofwoodwhichfloatedinatankofmercury.”
I see no evidence of complacency in Kelvin’s ([1], p.17) struggle to visualize
mercury vapor atoms, which are capable of producing a rich line spectrum but
at thermal equilibrium in laboratory conditions seem to be incapable even of
rotating, or in Rowland’s 1899 presidential address to the American Physical
Society[5]:“Whatismatter;whatisgravitation;whatisetherandtheradiation
throughit; whatis electricityandmagnetism;howarethese connectedtogether
andwhatistheirrelationtoheat?Thesearethegreaterproblemsoftheuniverse.
But many infinitely smaller problems we must attack and solve before we can
even guess at the solution of the greater ones.”
Badash [4] gives a valuable survey of opinions across a broader range of
the academic community, and concludes that at the end of the 19th century the
ideathatscienceisreachingcompleteness‘wasmorea“low-gradeinfection,”but
nevertheless veryreal.’Thissoundsright,butmyimpressionisthattheinfection
had little effect on the research of leading physicists, including Michelson.
The confidence in the established parts of physics at the start of the 20th
century was well placed: we still use and teach this electromagnetism and ther-
modynamics–thoughwenowthinkofitaspartofahierarchyofapproximations
thatforallwewilleverknowmayrunarbitrarilydeep.Concernsaboutthe19th
cloudscouldnothaveanticipatedthevastenlargementofphysicsandourworld-
view in the 20th century, but the point for our purpose is that the clouds were
recognized and driving research.
Ioffersomeparallelstothesituationinpresent-dayastronomy.Weknowhow
starsliketheSunshine,buttherearebiggapsinourunderstandingofhowstars
form, at high redshift and even in our own galaxy. I classify star formation as
a Rowland-type“smallerproblem:” itis fiendishly difficult but approachableby
well-motivated lines of research involving standard physics (as far as we know).
Such Rowland-type problems are the key to a healthy science, and astronomy
has them in abundance. We know the universe is evolving, and the evidence is
that general relativity theory gives a good description of the dynamics. But we
4 P.J.E. Peebles
don’t know what the universe is made of – apart from the five percent or so
in the visible sector – or what happens when spacetime curvature gets large,
as was the case in the very early universe and happens now in the centers of
galaxies. These are Kelvin-level clouds: critical issues whose resolution would
greatly advance our understanding of the material world. We don’t know what
the present-dayclouds are hiding, but we canbe sure they will continue to be a
good focus for research.
3 Astronomy at the Start of the 21st Century
The situation in astronomy in 1900 was close to the academic myth about
physics. Badash [4] gives a good quote from Newcomb [6]: “we do appear to
be fast approaching the limits of our knowledge ... one comet is so much like
another that we cannot regard one as adding in any important degree to our
knowledge. The result is that the work which really occupies the attention of
the astronomeris less the discovery of new things than the elaborationof those
already known, and the entire systemization of our knowledge.” The main sys-
temization was the cataloging of angular positions, apparent magnitudes, and
spectralclassificationsofliterallyhundredsofthousandsofstars.Butthisdreary
labor led to wonderful new things; consider these two examples of research tra-
jectories.2
Eddington’s (1924) gas spheres gave Bethe (1938) the physical conditions
for nuclear reactions in stars, and a way out of the discrepancy between the
Helmholz–Kelvin(1860)Solarcoolingtimeandthemuchgreatergeologicaltimes
fromradioactivedecayages.Abeautifulrecentdevelopmentisthedemonstration
that the Solar neutrino luminosity really is in satisfactory agreement with the
theory ofthe Solarnuclear reactionrates,to be understoodwiththe help ofthe
demonstration of nonzero neutrino masses.
Kapteyn (1901) set the distance scale for star counts in our island universe,
Shapley (1918) enlarged the island, and Hubble (1925) placed it in the near
homogeneousrealmofthenebulae.Hubble’slinearrelationbetweenhisdistances
to the nebulae and Slipher’s (1914) redshifts led Lemaˆıtre (1927) to the now
standard model for the expanding universe. The most direct evidence that our
universe actually is evolving – expanding and cooling – was completed with the
demonstration by the USA COBE and Canadian UBC experiments (1990)that
the 3 K cosmic background radiation spectrum is very close to thermal. In the
1930s Hubble commenced the great program of cosmological tests to check the
relativistic Friedmann–Lemaˆıtre model for the expanding universe. Now, seven
2 I have taken the liberty of indicating contributions by several people, and even
groups, under the name of a representative leading figure, with an approximate
year for developments that in some cases occurred over many years. I hope it is
understoodthatanotherreviewercouldchooseverydifferentrepresentativeexamples
ofwhathappenedin20th centuryastronomy.Harwit[7]presentsawell-documented
and much more complete analysis of discoveries in astronomy and theprospects for
discoveries of new astronomical phenomena.
Clouds OvertheVirtual Observatory 5
decades later, we are approaching a satisfactory application of the tests, which
the relativistic cosmology passes so far.
A byproduct of the cosmological tests is evidence that structure grew out
of a mass distribution at high redshift that is specified by one function of one
variable,thenearscale-invariantpowerspectrumofarandomGaussianprocess.
There are problems with details, as will be discussed, but the evidence pretty
strongly indicates this is a good approximation to the way it is. The Rowland-
type problem, of breathtaking scope and complexity, is to demonstrate that
standard physics actually can account for the origin of the worlds and their
spectacular variety of phenomena out of this simple initial condition.
I have mentioned stories with some happy endings, in reasonably conclusive
resolutions of lines of research that have occupied generations of astronomers.
We cannot say whether more happy endings to big puzzles are in store, but
we get some feeling for the prospects by considering present-day clouds over
astronomy.I shallcommentontwofromthe 20th centuryandonefromthe 19th
century.
3.1 Cloud No. I: the Dark Sector
Thedarksectorincludesthenonbaryonicmatterthatisthoughttodominatethe
outerpartsofgalaxiesandclustersofgalaxies;Einstein’scosmologicalconstant,
Λ, or dark energy that acts like it; and the vacuum energy density. The darkest
part of the cloud is over the vacuum energy. I draw these comments from a
review of the issues in [8] and the executive summary in [9].
Nernst[10]seemstobethefirsttohavediscussedtheenergyofthequantum
vacuum, in 1916. His zero-point energy for each mode of oscillation of the elec-
tromagnetic field is off by a factor of two,remarkablygoodconsidering this was
before HeisenbergandSchro¨dinger.Nernstshowedthatthe sumoverzero-point
energies of the modes with laboratory wavelengths is on the order of 1 g cm−2.
Pauli (in [11], p.250) was quite aware that this mass density would be ruinous
for relativistic cosmology; he advised that we just ignore the zero-point energy
of the electromagnetic field. This is a prescription, of course, and not even a
rational one. Pauli certainly knew that one must take account of zero-point en-
ergies to get the rightbinding energies in nonrelativisticparticle mechanics.We
now know the same applies to gravitational masses. And in standard physics
the zero-point energies of fields are just as real. The problem with the vacuum
energydensityhaspersisted–ifanythinggrownmorepuzzling–throughallthe
spectacular advances in physics in the 20th century. I like Wilczek’s phrase:this
aspect of our physics is “profoundly incomplete” [12]. It is a Kelvin-level cloud:
within physics that is wonderfully welltested and successful in a broadrangeof
applications there is a distinct glitch.
We have observational probes that might be helpful. If the vacuum presents
the same properties to any inertial observer,its effect on spacetime curvature is
the same as Einstein’s cosmological constant, Λ. The evidence from the cosmo-
logical tests is that the expansion of the universe actually is dominated a term
that acts like Λ – though the absolute value is ridiculously small compared to
6 P.J.E. Peebles
what is suggested by current ideas in particle physics. The case for detection
is serious, but since it depends on difficult observations and insecure models I
am inclined to limit the odds to maybe five to one. But work in progressshould
convincingly show us whether a term that acts like Λ really is present.
Until recently the tendency in the astronomy community has been to hope
that it could get by with Pauli’s prescription,or at worse the phenomenological
description of the vacuum by the numerical value of one constant, Λ, leaving
the dispersalof this cloud to the physicists.But currentideas are that Λ is only
anapproximationto a dynamicalentity,darkenergy,whosemass density varies
with time on the scale of cosmic evolution, and varies with position in response
to the large-scale irregularities in the matter distribution. Detection of these
effects would not solve the vacuum energy density problem, but it would be a
spectacularly stimulating clue. We know how it might be done, and I have been
hearing ambitious plans to make the astronomical measurements. You may be
surethe physicistswillbe hangingoneverywordofprogress;theyaredesperate
for something to knock them off dead center.
In the standardcosmologythe dark sector alsocontains nonbaryonicmatter
that dominates the mass in the outer dark halos of galaxies and the mass in
clusters of galaxies. I am in sympathy with those who ask for more evidence
this nonbaryonic matter really exists, but I think the case already is close to
compelling. The clearest exhibition of dark matter is the giant luminous arcs –
the gravitationally lensed images of backgroundgalaxies produced by the grav-
itational deflection of light by the masses in clusters of galaxies. No force law
I can imagine could produce these smooth arcs out of gravitating matter with
the clumpy distribution ofthe starlightin clusters.There has to be cluster dark
matter, and if it were baryonic it would cause ugly problems [8].
We have little empirical guidance to the physics of the dark sector: we are
workinginthedark.Weaccordinglyadoptthesimplestphysicswecangetaway
with,whichisgoodstrategy,butcertainlyneednotbethewholestory:consider
that polytropic ideal gas spheres were good enough for Eddington’s analysis of
the structure of the Sun, but helioseismology reveals a host of new details. If
our model for the dark sector is missing details that matter it will be revealed
by problems in fitting the observations. And there are hints of problems, from
observationsofthe structureandformationofgalaxies.My listisheadedby the
prediction that elliptical galaxies form by mergers at modest redshifts, which
seems to be at odds with the observation of massive quasars at z ∼ 6; the
predictionofappreciabledebrisinthe voidsdefinedbyL∗ galaxies,whichseems
to be at odds with the observation that dwarf, irregular, and L∗ galaxies share
quite similar distributions; and the prediction of cusp-like dark matter cores in
lowsurfacebrightnessgalaxies,whichisatoddswithwhatisobserved.Theseare
Rowland-typeproblemsthatdrawontherichphenomenologyofastronomy,from
the latestobservations by the Hubble Space Telescope to the vast accumulation
of lore from decades past. Sorting through all this takes time, but I expect will
showuswhether the problemswiththe standardpicture forthe darksectorwill
Clouds OvertheVirtual Observatory 7
be resolved by better understanding of the observations and theory, or will be
promoted to a Kelvin-level cloud.
3.2 Cloud No. II: Strong Spacetime Curvature
CloudIIisthesingularitiesofgeneralrelativity,wherethetheorybecomesmean-
ingless. It took some time for people to sort out the physical singularities from
singular coordinate labels, and to face up to the phenomenological importance
of the former. I remember as a graduate student in the late 1950s reading a
distinguishedphysicist’selegantpictureofthe bounceinanoscillatinguniverse:
like turning a glove inside out, one finger at a time. In the mid 1960s Penrose’s
[13] pioneering approach to singularity theorems forced us to accept that we
need deeper physics to see past the formal singularity at infinite redshift in the
relativistic Friedmann–Lemaˆıtre cosmological model. At about the same time,
the discovery of quasars, and the broader recognition of active galactic nuclei,
offered an example of strong spacetime curvature in compact objects closer to
hand. Now, a half century later, we have rich phenomenologies of compact ob-
jects and cosmology, and we still have the singularities.
Analyses of the astrophysicsof massive compact objects – those observedat
thecentersoflargegalaxies,andstarremnantsmoremassivethanawhitedwarf
–usuallytakeasgivenaSchwarzschildorKerrblackholegeometrywithatruly
blackinside,indiscussionsofwhathavegrowntobequitedetailedobservations.
There are no problems with this approach, a sign of the remarkable predictive
power of generalrelativity theory.But good science demands that we seek posi-
tiveevidenceinsupportoftheblackholepicture,andwatchforcredibleevidence
thatthestandardpicturemaynotbequiteright.Maybeadvancesinfundamen-
tal physics will show us what really is happening in the centers of galaxies, or
maybe the dispersal of this cloud will be guided by the phenomenology.
Analyses of observations in cosmology finesse the formal singularity of the
Friedmann–Lemaˆıtre model, and the unknown physics at the Planck scale, by
stipulating initial conditions at a more modest redshift, let us say z = 1015.
Nowadays the initial conditions often are given a pedigree, from the inflation
model, and the observational constraints on the initial conditions are used to
inferconditionsonwhatwashappeningduringinflation.But,sincetheinflation
scenario can fit a considerable range and variety of initial conditions, we don’t
know whether these measures of the very early universe amount to anything
more than a “just so” story. Three assignments may help.
Welooktoobservationalastronomersandcosmologistsfortighterconstraints
on the initial condition at redshift z = 1015. And it behooves us to watch for
hints that there is more to learn about cosmic evolution than is encoded in this
initial condition within the present standard cosmology. The successes of the
extrapolationofstandardphysicstothelengthandtimescalesofcosmologyare
impressive, but the enormous extrapolation certainly allows room for surprises.
I am watching for them in the problems with galaxy formation I mentioned in
connection with the dark sector.
8 P.J.E. Peebles
We look to those exploring ideas about the early universe to try to find
alternatives to inflation. If all due diligence yielded none we would have an
argument by default that inflation really happened, a dismal closure but better
than nothing. Alternatives are under discussion; it will be of great interest to
know whether some variant of the ekpyrotic universe [14] has a physical basis
comparable to that of inflation, which is not asking all that much.
We look to the physics community to build a firmer basis for cosmology at
high redshift. If fundamental physics converged on a complete theory that pre-
dicts a definite versionof inflation, or some other picture for the early universe,
which agrees with the astronomical constraints, it will convincingly complete
cosmology. The prediction’s the thing, of course.
3.3 Cloud No. III: the Meaning of Life
This is a cloud over a much broader community. We can leave to the experts in
other fields the philosophical issues, and the analysis of the molecular basis for
life.ThetaskforastronomyanditsVirtualObservatoryistosearchforevidence
of extraterrestriallife. This is a Kelvin-levelcloud:a powerfuldriver of research
whose outcome could profoundly affect our worldview.
Maybe life on Earth came from primitive extraterrestrial seeds; Hoyle and
Wickramasinghe[15]surveythe history and presentstate of ideas.Maybe there
areadvancedformsoflifeonotherworlds,seededorevolvedoutofspontaneously
createdlife.The familiar19th century example ofthe searchfor organizedlife is
Lowell’s study of possible signs on Mars; the search continues in the SETI and
OSETI projects. The TerrestrialPlanet Finder (TPF) will search for Earth-like
worlds where life might flourish in a primitive or organized state.
I read that the search for extraterrestrial life is the part of astronomy that
most interests most people. I offer four observations of how the big ideas and
activities in society have influenced the directions of this research.
First,CharlesDarwin’sdeeplyinfluentialargumentsforevolutionbynatural
selection forced debate on what the first step in the evolution of life might have
been. At about the same time, people were coming to the conclusionthat spon-
taneous generation is an exceedingly rare event, if it happens at all, and maybe
contrary to Darwin’s principle that life evolves out of life [16,17]. It was natu-
ral therefore that people turned to the idea of extraterrestrial seeds. Helmholtz
(1874),amostinfluentialphysicistandphysiologist,arguedfortheidea,asdidan
important chemist, Arrhenius (1908). Kelvin (1871) endorsed the general idea,
butnotnaturalselection:he arguedfor“intelligentandbenevolentdesign”[18].
Second,theendofthe19thcenturywasatimeoflarge-scalecivilengineering,
including completion of the modern Suez Canal in 1869. It is perhaps not so
surprising that Lowell looked for signs of big engineering on Mars.
Third, this is an age of computers and information transfer. I think it’s
not surprising that people are searching for extraterrestrial bar codes. I don’t
mean to mock serious and important science: a source of bar codes would sig-
nify self-aware life by any definition. Imagine the effect on our society of the
Clouds OvertheVirtual Observatory 9
demonstration that there actually is extraterrestrial self-aware life, that might
even have something to say to us.
Fourth, this is an age of big science, that is supported by the wealth of na-
tions. A logical consequence is that researchin science is influenced by big gov-
ernment. The TPF is a recent example: this is pure curiosity-driven big science
thatoriginatedwithingovernmentfundingagencies,ratherthanbeingforcedby
intense pressure from a scientific community.
I offer two lessons from these observations. First, the fascination with the
idea of life on other worlds has a long history, back through the 19th century,
and, I expect, it has a long future. But societies evolve, and it is natural to
expect the focus of the search for extraterrestriallife will evolve too.
Second, the means of support of the scientific enterprise are evolving; the
TPF is leading the curve. The TPF certainly may yield wonderful results; we
have the inspiring precedent of Slipher’s discovery of the cosmological redshift,
at the observatory Lowell built with a goal paralleling that of the TPF. But
there is the difference thatfunding agencieshaveto tend to many masters;they
can’t have the compulsive attention span of curiosity-driven people like Lowell.
TheVirtualObservatoryisnotleadingthiscurve:acommunityisfightingforit,
in the style of what gave us the space telescope, and what happened in physics
in the last half century. These are generally happy examples – apart from such
glitches as sunset clauses – of what I suppose is an inevitable development: the
directionsofresearchinastronomyareincreasinglyinfluencedbygovernmentas
well as society, and astronomers must continue learning how to deal with it.
4 Concluding Remarks
Our ability to explore the physical universe is limited by resources and intel-
lectual energy: the scientific enterprisemust eventually reach completion by ex-
haustion. But we can be sure this will not happen any time soon to astronomy
and its Virtual Observatory, because the subject has a rich list of Rowland-
type problems to address, and, as I have discussed, a key role to play in the
exploration of clear and present Kelvin-level gaps in our understanding of the
fundamentalbasis forphysicalscience.Therewasno guaranteein1900that the
clouds over physics would clear, with a wonderful expansion of our knowledge.
It would be foolish to try to guess what the present clouds might foreshadow,
but we can list the general possibilities. Maybe the clouds will resist all efforts
atresolution.Ifso,convincingpeopleofthiscertainlywillgeneratealotofwork
for astronomers.Maybe the clouds will be clearedand atlast leaveastronomers
to tidy up the pesky details.Ormaybe clearing the clouds will reveala new set,
as has happened before.
I have avoided until now commenting on a serious issue under debate in the
astronomy community: is this an appropriate time to commit limited resources
to an International Virtual Observatory? I respect the arguments against, but
ampersuadedbypersonalexperiencethatthegrowthoftheVirtualObservatory
is inevitable and would benefit from intelligent design. Two years ago the walls
10 P.J.E. Peebles
of my office were covered by about 25 meters of journal rows, dating back to
1965.Ilovedtheconvenienceofreachingforacopyofthewantedarticle.ButI’ve
discardedthejournals;Iloveevenmorethemuchgreaterconvenienceandpower
of ADS, arXiv, and JSTOR. I notice many colleagues feel the same: we have
become addicted to these Virtual Libraries. Present-day Virtual Observatories
are a useful but limited counterpart. Their further development seems to me to
be an inevitable part of what we see happening around us, and surely calls for
the proactive community response I have observed at this meeting.
Acknowledgements
I have benefitted from advice from Larry Badash, Neta Bahcall, Jeremy Bern-
stein, Masataka Fukugita, Rich Gott, Martin Harwit, Gerald Holton, Stacey
McGaugh, Bharat Ratra, Paul Schechter, Max Tegmark, and Ed Turner. This
work was supported in part by the USA National Science Foundation.
References
1. Lord Kelvin: Phil. Mag. ii– sixth series, 1 (1901)
2. A.A.Michelson:LightWavesandTheirUses(UniversityofChicagoPress,Chicago
1903)
3. Lord Rayleigh: Phil Mag. xlix– fifth series, 98 (1900)
4. L. Badash: Isis 63, 48 (1972)
5. H.A.Rowland: Bulletin of the American Physical Society 1, 4 (1899)
6. S.Newcomb: Sidereal Messenger 7, 65 (1888)
7. M.Harwit:CosmicDiscovery:theSearch,Scope,andHeritageofAstronomy (Basic
Books, New York1981)
8. P.J.E. Peebles, B. Ratra: astro-ph/0207347
9. P.J.E. Peebles: astro-ph/0208037
10. W.Nernst:VerhandlungenderDeutschenPhysikalischenGesellschaft18,83(1916)
11. W. Pauli: ‘Die allgemeinen Prinzipien der Wellenmechanik’. In: Handbuch der
Physik, Quantentheorie XXIV/1ed. by H.Geiger and K.Scheel (Springer,Berlin
1933), p. 83
12. F. Wilczek: Physics Today 55, August, p.10 (2002)
13. R.Penrose: Phys. Rev.Lett. 14, 57 (1965)
14. J.Khoury,B.A.Ovrut,P.J.Steinhardt,N.Turok:Phys.Rev.D64,123522(2001)
15. F. Hoyle, N.C. Wickramasinghe: Astrophys. Space Sci. 268, pp. vii - vii and 1 -
17 (1999)
16. J.Farley:TheSpontaneousGenerationControversyfromDescartestoOparin(The
Johns HopkinsUniversity Press, Baltimore 1974)
17. M.J.Crowe:TheExtraterrestrial LifeDebate, 1750-1900: theIdeaofaPluralityof
Worlds from Kant to Lowell (Cambridge UniversityPress, Cambridge 1986)
18. Lord Kelvin: Presidential Addressto the British Association, Edinburgh (1871)