Toppling Foreign Governments: The Logic of Regime Change

341 Pages·2019·2.952 MB·English

by  Melissa Willard-Foster

Toppling Foreign Governments
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TOPPLING
FOREIGN
GOVERNMENTS
The Logic of Regime Change
Melissa Willard-Foster
UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA PRESS
PHILADELPHIA
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Copyright(cid:2)2019UniversityofPennsylvaniaPress
Allrightsreserved.Exceptforbriefquotationsusedforpurposesofreviewor
scholarlycitation,noneofthisbookmaybereproducedinanyformbyanymeans
withoutwrittenpermissionfromthepublisher.
Publishedby
UniversityofPennsylvaniaPress
Philadelphia,Pennsylvania19104-4112
www.upenn.edu/pennpress
PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmericaonacid-freepaper
1 3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2
ACataloging-in-PublicationrecordisavailablefromtheLibraryofCongress
ISBN978-0-8122-5104-3
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For Amelia, Evan, and Maggie
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CONTENTS
Introduction 1
Chapter1.WhytheStrongImposeRegimeChangeontheWeak 25
Chapter2.HowStatesImposeRegimeChange 50
Chapter3.TestingtheLogicofForeign-ImposedRegimeChange 73
Chapter4.TheColdWar:AmericanPolicyToward
BoliviaandGuatemala,1952–54 103
Chapter5.TheColdWar:SovietPolicyToward
PolandandHungary,1956 140
Chapter6.ThePost-9/11Era:RegimeChangeandRogues,
Iraq2003,Libya2003,andLibya2011 175
Conclusion 229
Appendix1.Foreign-ImposedRegimeChange,1816–2007 249
Appendix2.AGameTheoreticModelofRegimeChange 254
Notes 261
Index 319
Acknowledgments 331
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Introduction
On March 19, 2011, eight years to the day after the start of the Iraq War,
theNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization(NATO)beganlaunchingairstrikes
at Libya in the third American-led attempt in a decade to topple a foreign
leader.Aftertwo costlywarsinIraqand Afghanistan,few wouldhavepre-
dicted President Barack Obama would lead the United States into another
attempt at regime change. As a senator, he had opposed doing so in Iraq,
insisting Saddam Hussein posed no imminent threat and could be con-
tainedgiventheweakenedIraqieconomyandmilitary.1LikeSaddam,Lib-
ya’s Muammar Qaddafi posed no threat to the United States. He had
weakened his own military in order to coup-proof his regime. He also no
longer had the allies or the chemical weapons he had once possessed to
protecthimself.Qaddafi’smilitaryvulnerabilityshouldhavegivenhimthe
incentivetoseekasettlementandavoidawarthathecouldnotwin.Butif
Qaddafi,likeSaddam,couldhavebeencoercedandcontained,whywasthe
UnitedStatespursuingregimechangeagain?
Thefailuretoestablishstable,friendlyregimesinAfghanistan,Iraq,and
Libya has led scholars and politicians alike to question the wisdom of
foreign-imposed regime change (FIRC), and perhaps for good reason.
Studies show FIRC (or simply “regime change,” as I will also refer to it)
increases the risk of civil war in the target state and rarely creates demo-
craticregimes.Inaddition,studiesexaminingwhetherFIRCimprovesrela-
tions withthetargetstateshowmixedresults.2ButdespiteFIRC’sdubious
record, regime change has been a persistent feature of the international
system for centuries. It has taken many forms throughout this history—
from foreign-instigated coups to large-scale military invasions, but what-
ever the form, the goal has been the same: to change the policies of other
statesbychangingtheirpolicymakers.
Regime change, however, is but one arrow in the quiver from which
states can draw to achieve their foreign-policy objectives. And, as recent
Americanexperiencesuggests,itcanbeacostlyone.Ratherthanreplacing
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