To Dare More Boldly: The Audacious Story of Political Risk

341 Pages·2018·2.187 MB·English

by  John C. Hulsman

To Dare More Boldly
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To Dare More Boldly
❖❖❖❖❖
The Audacious Story
of Political Risk
John C. Hulsman
Princeton University Press
Princeton and Oxford
Copyright © 2018 by Princeton University Press
Published by Princeton University Press,
41 William Street, Princeton, New Jersey 08540
In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press,
6 Oxford Street, Woodstock, Oxfordshire OX20 1TR
press.princeton.edu
Jacket art: Detail of Portrait of Sir Francis Drake (1540–96), oil on panel
by unknown artist, c. 1581. IanDagnall Computing / Alamy Stock Photo
Jacket design by Kathleen Lynch / Black Kat Design
All Rights Reserved
ISBN 978‑0‑691‑17219‑4
Library of Congress Control Number: 2017962507
British Library Cataloging‑in‑Publication Data is available
This book has been composed in Minion Pro
Printed on acid‑free paper. ∞
Printed in the United States of America
1 3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2
This book is for Benjamin, Matilda, and Samuel;
you are all I have to offer the world, but you are far
more than enough.

Disturb us, Lord, when we are too well pleased with ourselves
When our dreams have come true because we have dreamed
too little
When we arrive safely because we sailed too close to the shore.
Disturb us, Lord, to dare more boldly, to venture on wider seas
Where storms will show your mastery
Where losing sight of land, we shall find the stars.
—Excerpts from Sir Francis Drake’s prayer, 1577 (apocryphal)

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CONTENTS
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CHAPTER ONE
480 bc: Introduction—The First Political
Risk Analysts: The Pythia of Delphi 1
The Pythia as the World’s First Political
Risk Consultant 1
The Pythia Masters the Persians 2
The Merits of History 6
A Potted History of the Modern Political
Risk Business 11
Hans Morgenthau, Realism, and Modern
Geopolitical Risk 27
Brian Wilson and Greek Attributes 31
Back to the Past of the Pythia’s Lair to Glean
the Future of Geopolitical Risk Analysis 36
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CHAPTER TWO
31 ad: We Are the Risk; The Decline and
Fall of the Roman Empire 42
Edward Gibbon and How Political Risk
Analysts Think 42
The Rise of Sejanus and the Fall of the
Roman Empire 46
An Avoidable Tragedy in France and the
Root Cause of Europe’s Decline 49
Europe’s Ticking Demographic Time Bomb 52
Karl‑Theodor zu Guttenberg and Germany’s
Distrust of Success 56