time series analysis of area, production and prdouctivity of major coarse cereals in andhra pradesh

140 Pages·2016·0.88 MB·English

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF AREA,
PRODUCTION AND PRDOUCTIVITY OF
MAJOR COARSE CEREALS IN
ANDHRA PRADESH

BY
VAKA NIREESHA
B.Sc. (Ag.)

THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE
ACHARYA N.G.RANGA AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY
IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS
FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF

MASTER OF SCIENCE IN AGRICULTURE
(AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS)

CHAIRPERSON: Dr. V. SRINIVASA RAO

DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS AND MATHEMATICS
AGRICULTURAL COLLEGE, BAPATLA
ACHARYA N.G.RANGA AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY
2014
LIST OF CONTENTS
Chapter No. Title Page No.
I INTRODUCTION
II REVIEW OF LITERATURE
III MATERIAL AND METHODS
IV RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
V SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
LITERATURE CITED
TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF AREA,
PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY
OF MAJOR COARSE CEREALS IN
ANDHRA PRADESH

VAKA NIREESHA

B.Sc. (Ag.)

MASTER OF SCIENCE IN AGRICULTURE
(AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS)

2014
DECLARATION

I, Ms. VAKA NIREESHA, hereby declare that the thesis entitled “TIME
SERIES ANALYSIS OF AREA, PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY OF
MAJOR COARSE CEREALS IN ANDHRA PRADESH” submitted to
Acharya N. G. Ranga Agricultural University for the degree of Master of
Science in Agriculture is the result of original research work done by me. I also
declare that no material contained in the thesis has been published earlier in any
manner.

Place: (VAKA NIREESHA)
Date: I. D. No. BAM-12-51
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

An accomplishment of this thesis is the result of benevolence of Almighty,
love of my parents, blessing of my teachers, motivation and guidance of brothers and
my friends.
I am privileged to avail this opportunity to express my deep and heartfelt
gratitude and veneration to my major advisor and chairman of my advisory
committee, Dr. V. Srinivasa Rao, A Professor and University Head, Department of
Statistics and Mathematics, Agricultural College, Bapatla for his impeccable and
highly informative advise and indefatigable guidance and for his incessant
encouragement during the course of the study.
I sincerely extended my profound thanks to Dr. D. Vishnu Sankar Rao,
Professor and University Head, Department of Agricultural Economics,
Agricultural College, Bapatla. The member of my advisory committee for his rational
approach in conducting analysis and constructive interpretation of data and
precious guidance given to me during the course of research work.
I extend my gratitude to Dr. G. Raghunadha reddy, Associate Professor,
Department of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural College, Bapatla and member
of my advisory Committee for his meticulous guidance and valuable suggestions
during the course of investigation.
I wish to acknowledge my sincere thanks to Dr. Shaik Nafeez Umar,
Assistant Professor, Department of Statistics and Mathematics, Agricultural
College, Bapatla for his instantaneous help, constant encouragement and treasured
suggestions during the course of work.
I fervently extend my profound thanks to Sri V. Sekhar, and Sri V. Venkata
Krishna, Teaching Associates, Department of Statistics and Mathematics,
Agricultural College, Bapatla, immensely valuable and timely help and
encouragement during the thesis preparation.
I am in depth of words to express my unboundful gratititude and genuflect
love to my beloved parents Sri. V. Naga Raju and Smt. Ramana, my uncles S. Ravi
Kumar and V. Srinivas Rao my ever lovable brother V. Kalyan, my sisters Rajani,
Lakshmi Prasanna, and all my family members for their unbounding love and their
inspiration, guidance given from time to time in educating and moulding me to
achieve set goals and for their moral support to bring out best in my all endeavours.
It gives me immense pleasure to express my profound thanks to Satya
Narayana Rao post harvest technology, Agricultural College, Bapatla for his
unforgettable help in providing data during the course of my work.
I owe my special thanks to Mohiddin, Ameer, Meghanath , Savithri and
Samba for their co-operation during the course of investigation.
I am very glad to mention sincere thanks to my deep love towards my ever
friends, roommates Menaka and Poorna Teja especially for their unmatchable love,
affection, whole-hearted co-operation, motivation and moral support.
I place my sincere thanks to my overwhelming sense of affection to my
beloved friends Padmavathi, Naga Keerthi, Greeshma, Bhavana, Poorna Sujatha,
Hari Prasad, Anurag, Kiran Naik, Simhadri and also thankful to my seniors
Srinivas sir, Samba Shiva sir for their unforgettable help and cooperation during the
course of work.
I am greatful to Acharya N.G Ranga Agricultural University for providing
financial assistance in the form of stipend during my course of study.
Finally, my greatest regards to the Almighty for bestowing upon me the
courage to face the complexities of life and complete this project work successfully.

Place (V. NIREESHA)
Date
CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that thesis entitled “TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF AREA,
PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY OF MAJOR COARSE CEREALS IN
ANDHRA PRADESH” submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the
degree of Master of Science in Agriculture of the Acharya N. G. Ranga Agricultural
University, Hyderabad, is a record of the bonafide original research work carried out by
Ms. NIREESHA VAKA under our guidance and supervision.
No part of the thesis has been submitted by the student for any other degree or
diploma. The published part and all assistance received during the course of the
investigations have been duly acknowledged by the author of the thesis.

Thesis approved by the student’s advisory committee

Chairperson: Dr. V. SRINIVASA RAO
Chairperson
Professor & University Head
Department Statistics and Mathematics
Agricultural College, Bapatla – 522 101

Member: Dr. D. VISHNU SANKAR RAO
Professor & University Head
Department of Agricultural Economics
Agricultural College, Bapatla – 522 101.

Member: Dr. G. RAGHUNADHA REDDY
Associate Professor
Department of Agricultural Economics
Agricultural College, Bapatla – 522 101.

Date of final viva – voce:
CERTIFICATE

Ms. NIREESHA VAKA has satisfactorily prosecuted the course of
research and that thesis entitled “TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF AREA,
PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY OF MAJOR COARSE CEREALS IN
ANDHRA PRADESH” submitted is the result of original research work and is
of sufficiently high standard to warrant its presentation to the examination. I
also certify that neither the thesis nor its part there of has been previously
submitted by him for a degree of any university.

Date: (Dr. V. SRINIVASA RAO)
Place: Chairperson
Professor & University Head
Department of Statistics and Mathematics
Agricultural College, Bapatla
Guntur dist. 522101
LIST OF SYMBOLS AND ABBREVIATIONS
% : Per cent
Mm : Millimetre
0C : degree celcius
etc., : and so on; and other people/things
Fig : Figure
i.e. : That is
et al. : and others people
e.g. : for example, for instance
Viz., : Namely
M : Million
t : tonnes
ha : Hectares
AR : Auto Regression
MA : Moving Average
ARMA : Auto Regressive Moving Average
ARIMA : Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average
MAPE : Mean Absolute Percent Error
Adj R2 : Adjusted R2
R2 : Co-efficient of determination
Kg ha-1 : Kilogram per hectare
DTBES : Damped Trend Brown Exponential Smoothing
DBES : Double Brown Exponential Smoothing
Max temp : Maximum temperature
Min temp : Minimum temperature
LIST OF FIGURES
Page
S. No. Title of the Figure
No.
4.1 Observed Area of Maize in Andhra Pradesh
4.2 Observed Production of Maize in Andhra Pradesh
4.3 Observed Productivity of Maize in Andhra Pradesh
4.4 Observed Area of Sorghum in Andhra Pradesh
4.5 Observed Production of Sorghum in Andhra Pradesh
4.6 Observed Productivity of Sorghum in Andhra Pradesh
4.7 Observed Area of Pearl millet in Andhra Pradesh
4.8 Observed Production of Pearl millet in Andhra Pradesh
4.9 Observed Productivity of Pearl millet in Andhra Pradesh
4.10 Observed Area of Finger millet in Andhra Pradesh
4.11 Observed Production of Finger millet in Andhra Pradesh
4.12 Observed Productivity of Finger millet in Andhra Pradesh
4.13 Observed and Forecasted Trends of Maize Area in Andhra
Pradesh
4.14 Observed and Forecasted Trends of Maize Production in Andhra
Pradesh
4.15 Observed and Forecasted Trends of Maize Productivity in
Andhra Pradesh
4.16 Observed and Forecasted Trends of Sorghum Area in Andhra
Pradesh
4.17 Observed and Forecasted Trends of Sorghum Production in
Andhra Pradesh
4.18 Observed and Forecasted Trends of Pearl millet Area in Andhra
Pradesh